Spring Racing

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Go and get fingered Powa.

Harden up princess. Im clearly joking, jeez, i thought a man who can suggest a women should 'be ironing' would get that, no?

As for an apology, yes, I'm sorry swansfan_20 if i offended you with that remark late last night, i was only playing on the fact of Paris' and your hate for The Cleaner (i still dont understand how anyone could hate him?). Clearly there are 'boys jokes' and some that should be saved for boys only. Sorry, i won't be as vulgar or crude to you like that again.

 

[Jugada]

I think the real apology should be going to Paris for how repulsive some people find the idea of him touching some poor woman

Stay strong Paris

 

[Jugada]

How much does a big 6 usually pay this time of year compared to a quaddie? Are the pools big enough so you get the right value

 

[Duritz]

Rich Enuff gross unders on Saturday, for mine. Currently $3.10 TAB. No thanks.

 

[scatman john]

Rich Enuff gross unders on Saturday, for mine. Currently $3.10 TAB. No thanks.

completely agree. was very impressive in the danehill down the straight early last month but that price is silly. going up in distances and then busting a gut over 1600m only to come back to 1200m is concerning.
i think rubick will be too sharp again.

anyone keen on taking up the $3~ on hucklebuck? was against a weak field last start in adelaide but really powered home. weak race imo. he's all class and if he's back to his best will blow this lot away.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Kuro still for me, was hoping for a $7 though, no bets yet, hoping it drifts.

 

[checkraiseulite]

Sorry, where's the 13% coming from?

Forget the prices, this is more a money management issue I'm referring to.

I attempt to come away with a profit of 4-5% of total bank on each individual bet but I'm not willing to risk more than 4% of my bank on one individual bet, which means I will rarely bet anything shorter than 1.90-$2 in price regardless of whether I think they are over their true odds of winning or not.

Even if you are backing horses at their correct prices there are still periods where you will lose, if you start betting big percentages of your bank and have a losing run then you will go broke very quickly.

Understood, wasn't looking at it from a BRM perspective, more as a pricing differential.

13% comes from you rating the horse as a ~70% shot. But being unwilling to back it at <$1.75, that price implying it has is 57% chance to win.

 

[JuddsABlue]

Earthquake anyone?

dropping 4.5kg and put up a good time over this distance last start beating tawteen by a length

 

[Main Man]

Earthquake anyone?

dropping 4.5kg and put up a good time over this distance last start beating tawteen by a length

Any number of horses can win the Coolmore, she is a definite chance but I'm personally not convinced weight has all that much impact over the sprint trips, from my point of view Rich Enuff & Kuro the stand outs, if Rubick can run a strong 1200M then he is a big chance also.

They haven't missed Rich Enuff though.

 

[JuddsABlue]

Any number of horses can win the Coolmore, she is a definite chance but I'm personally not convinced weight has all that much impact over the sprint trips, from my point of view Rich Enuff & Kuro the stand outs, if Rubick can run a strong 1200M then he is a big chance also.

They haven't missed Rich Enuff though.

I was with Rich Enuff before looking at the form this afternoon and was just really impressed with Earthquakes prep

I'm not a weight expert by any means but 4.5kg stood out to me, surely should be worth something?

Either way, I like $7.5 but just thought there may be something I'm not seeing since shes drifted a point already

 

[JuddsABlue]

Also really liked Happy Trails run in the Cox after missing the start and sitting quite a way back, should enjoy the room of Flemington

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I was with Rich Enuff before looking at the form this afternoon and was just really impressed with Earthquakes prep

I'm not a weight expert by any means but 4.5kg stood out to me, surely should be worth something?

Either way, I like $7.5 but just thought there may be something I'm not seeing since shes drifted a point already

I wrote this earlier but id much rather be on Eloping at $21 compared to Earthquake at $7. Flogged Tawteen 2 starts back (admittedly at level weights) compared to Eathquake scrambling in last start.

Dont think that form is the A grade 3 yo form anyway. Couldn't touch the $7 with your money.

 

[Main Man]

Rich Enuff is very good, his 1200M and 1400M runs have been dynamic to say the least, it is A grade form for me, he thrashed Brazen Beau that day (had excuses but not 4 lengths worth) and he is a fair benchmark for the 3yo's I would think.

His only run up the Flemington straight on the 13/9/14 he ran less than a length slower than Chatauqua carrying +3.5kgs on the WFA scale whilst Chatauqua carried -4.5 kg, as I said weight doesn't have as much bearing when it comes to the sprint races but that was an super performance by Rich Enuff.

If he rates to that level again then I think he is very hard to beat, Kuro is the other one who has been rating highly with me, don't think we have seen his ceiling yet.

Earthquake is capable of winning this but I think she needs to find 2 lengths on what she has done this time in, very even race behind the two I have mentioned in my opinion.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Rich Enuff gross unders on Saturday, for mine. Currently $3.10 TAB. No thanks.

I think the $4.50 from yesterday was good value, but $3.10 is redonc against that field. I hope he keeps shortening, would love a nice price to lay off on.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Also really liked Happy Trails run in the Cox after missing the start and sitting quite a way back, should enjoy the room of Flemington

He's Your Man for me, really like the $6 on offer as well at 365, think he has come of age this prep. He has been set for this race but any runner backing up from a CP run has been a pretty good formula over the years so can't knock any of them.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Rich Enuff is very good, his 1200M and 1400M runs have been dynamic to say the least, it is A grade form for me, he thrashed Brazen Beau that day (had excuses but not 4 lengths worth) and he is a fair benchmark for the 3yo's I would think.

His only run up the Flemington straight on the 13/9/14 he ran less than a length slower than Chatauqua carrying +3.5kgs on the WFA scale whilst Chatauqua carried -4.5 kg, as I said weight doesn't have as much bearing when it comes to the sprint races but that was an super performance by Rich Enuff.

If he rates to that level again then I think he is very hard to beat, Kuro is the other one who has been rating highly with me, don't think we have seen his ceiling yet.

Earthquake is capable of winning this but I think she needs to find 2 lengths on what she has done this time in, very even race behind the two I have mentioned in my opinion.

OMG, i agree. Cant be right? Can it?

 

[Main Man]

OMG, i agree. Cant be right? Can it?

Which part are you agreeing with?

 

[rideclutch]

Rich Enuff is very good, his 1200M and 1400M runs have been dynamic to say the least, it is A grade form for me, he thrashed Brazen Beau that day (had excuses but not 4 lengths worth) and he is a fair benchmark for the 3yo's I would think

Any query on the Guineas form?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Which part are you agreeing with?

All of it. (well apart from giving Earthquake any hope)

Rich Enuff on top but would rather back Kuro at the price…

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Any query on the Guineas form?

My only knock on the price, being set for the Guineas and going again.

 

[Main Man]

Any query on the Guineas form?

Only query for me is whether it has flattened him or not, a lot have got carried away with those that plugged home past the tired horse from the back like Merion, Chivalry & Kumaon, the fact that they have all failed at there next starts was no surprise to me, they had the soft runs out the back and ran on late, if they were any good they should have beaten Rich Enuff with the work he did.

Rich Enuff was without doubt the run of the race, his early sections were ridiculous, he never settled and was beaten a half head by a good one who had the the perfect run.

He was always a query at the 1600M anyway and was entitled to finish midfield based on the work he did, go back to his 1200 & 1400M runs, dynamic, running on hot speeds and dropping them in 100M, if he is back to that level he is extremely hard to beat in this.

 

[rideclutch]

Only query for me is whether it has flattened him or not, a lot have got carried away with those that plugged home past the tired horse from the back like Merion, Chivalry & Kumaon, the fact that they have all failed at there next starts was no surprise to me, they had the soft runs out the back and ran on late, if they were any good they should have beaten Rich Enuff with the work he did.

Agree was by far the run of the race.

No science here but Rich Enuff's dam (also the dam of Lightenuff) seems to stamp her progeny with a certain amount of toughness. We saw this in his win at the Valley where he absorbed pressure and still kicked. Pretty confident he will be close enough to his best for this, despite having to peak twice.

 

[rideclutch]

My only knock on the price, being set for the Guineas and going again.

Yeah they've come from trees today. 'Hammered' I think is the best term to describe it.

He'd wanna deliver though after going around odds on in the Guineas. Love the horse but if he flops here bookies will have the framed posters going up in no time.

 

[iluvparis]

How the hell is Side Glance not favourite in the MacKinnon!?!?

International horses absolutely dominating this Spring - two huge runs already in Australia and won the race last year. $9 is farcical - an absolute smashing EW price if ever I saw it.

Interestingly - didn't realise Faraaj had been shipped over. Unlike Amralah he is a horse I have a lot of time for, and backed him on Epsom Derby day when he smashed a high quality handicap field over 2000m. He probably doesn't have the class to win the race - but has always been enigmatic, and when right on his day can put up big numbers. Should love a firm Aussie track and might be worth a sneaky bet in case he puts it all together and shows what he is truly capable of on the day.

 

[iluvparis]

Re: Rich Enuff - clearly the best form in the race but I have huge concerns over him dropping back from the 1600m to this race. Has that been done before? Have any of the past winners come straight out of either Guineas? (Thinking maybe Weekend Hussler?).

Given that I would prefer to stick with those that have had a sprint preperation which leaves me with Earthquake.