List Mgmt. Squad post rebuild > finals push 2024

[Scorpus]

As it has already been pointed out to you flags do not equal flag contention. Being there or thereabouts should never be a 10 year process. Only one team can win it each year and there are 18 teams.

The job of list management is to build a list capable of contending and winning a flag, not to actually win the flag. When you discuss rebuild you are talking about list management and development, not gameday coaching and tactics.

It also matters not at all that some teams have made the GF and got smashed - running into Hawthorn circa 2012-2015 and playing them at home in the GF and losing isn't a failure of list management and rebuilds. They were an extraordinary team and playing at home. Only Sydney managed to vanquish them in 2012. West Coast making a GF 3 or 4 years after their spoon was also extraordinary. They then went on to win the flag 8 years post rebuild, thinking 10+ years is acceptable is just downright timid in a business where ambition is vital.

Otherwise you may as well resign yourself to the 1 every 18 years mantra. Yawn.

Collingwood spoon in 99 to successive GFs in 2002 and 2003. Many other examples.

Carlton and Melbourne being so sh*te for a decade doesn't prove any rule other than it takes that goddamn long when you severely mismanage your list and recruitment.

If you finish last you are likely to mismanage or have mismanaged your list. That is the point. That is why the vast majority of spoon winners in the last 20 years have been miles off it. Only the worst clubs finish last.

That's why it's not as simple as just suddenly having good list management and rebuilding in a short period of time. If you finish last, the chances are you don't have good list management. That has to be factored in.

But even if you ignore the instances in which a team clearly has terrible management like Carlton and Melbourne, even then the majority of rebuilds aren't simple 5 year jobs. We can aim to be West Coast and Collingwood if we want, but the reality is those clubs were outliers in their rebuilds.

• Hawthorn needed to rebuild twice over a 13 year period and finished bottom 4 on five occasions
• Geelong never finished bottom 4 between 1995 and their 2000s flag run
• St Kilda spent a decade and a half mostly in the bottom 4 before meeting us in the grand final, then had to rebuild again, taking another 9 years to their GF appearances, and still don't have success
• Sydney spent 5 years in the bottom 4 (and eight years out of finals) before the 1996 GF they lost, and haven't needed to rebuild since
• Richmond were basically locked out of finals since the 1980s, and between 2002 and 2017 finished bottom 4 on six occasions including two spoons. Took 15 years from finishing 3rd last in 2002
• Western Bulldogs finished last in 2003 after their tilt in the late 90s, then went on to finish bottom 4 another 4 times in the 13 years it took for them to make the grand final
• Fremantle spent six seasons in the bottom 4 between 1995 and 2002, went nowhere and had to top up again with two bottom 4 finishes 5 years before their only grand final
• Essendon never rebuilt to reach their 2000 flag
• We will never replicate the list concessions of Brisbane, Port Adelaide or GWS in any rebuild we do so they are irrelevant

These are the teams that did a good job of rebuilding, and two of them didn't even rebuild. Six of these teams spent years (5+) languishing in the bottom 4, several of them required multiple rebuilds. And again these are only the rebuilds that put the club into a grand final, that's not even counting all the bottom 4 teams who as of now remain unsuccessful or unable to reach that mark

I mean just look at the teams currently in the top 4. Melbourne have been rebuilding for 20 years, the Bulldogs as above took 13 years and were successful just 5 years ago, Geelong have never rebuilt and Brisbane spent 9 consecutive years out of finals with seven bottom 4 finishes.

So I'll repeat what I said. It's normal for a successful rebuild to take about 10 years, anything faster than that is exceptional. Not needing to rebuild more than once is also exceptional. But also be prepared for a rebuild to fail and lead to a longer stretch out of contention

 

[ABAB]

We have our KPD set in Butts and McAsey and our KPF in RT and Fog.

I think it’s the x-factor in the midfield this year as we desperately need it and I think we will be fine in the future.

Next season look at trying to lure Rankine in the forwardline

Rankine need to have that passion and play for the team he supported, just like Thilthorpe. I still think he will be that midfielder we are looking for, I've seen CGS has been playing him more up the ground and him with Berry and Pedlar in the midfield......

 

[Scorpus]

By the way the reason I bring this up about rebuilds is not because I'm pessimistic that our rebuild will take ages. Quite the opposite.

I'm more concerned about people thinking we will magically be a flag threat in a couple of years, and will call for the coaches' head if we don't make finals quickly. We need to give Nicks plenty of time to gather the talent required for a flag and get our systems working properly

 

[Geoffa32]

For me our two KPDs are Butts and McAsey.
Doedee the obvious Interceptor/Third Man.


Worrell needs to push Kelly out. A hard task as he is well respected for his defensive work. Even if he is not great with ball in hand.


Worrell is talented though. Could he play up forward when Tex retires.

Our current trio of Forwards is a structure that works. One Forward/Ruck and two pure tall forwards.

Frampton and Hberg are not AFL quality. We ain't getting Luko.

RT, Fog and Worrell could work, if Worrell can play Forward.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

 

[WeeBlake]

Hard to be too confident of many spots in our best 2024 team.

Id say these are very likely
Butts
Doedee
Sholl Keays
McHenry Fogarty Berry
Thilthorpe
OBrien Schoenberg Laird

These are an OK chance (for various reasons inc age, trade, not being good enough)
Brown Murray Macasey Worrall
Kelly Hamill Smith Milera
Pedlar Jones Crouch Seedsman
Macadam Rowe
Newchurch

definitely not
Mackay
Walker
Talia


Others currently on the list, possible

 

[CrowInFiji]

If you finish last you are likely to mismanage or have mismanaged your list. That is the point. That is why the vast majority of spoon winners in the last 20 years have been miles off it. Only the worst clubs finish last.

That's why it's not as simple as just suddenly having good list management and rebuilding in a short period of time. If you finish last, the chances are you don't have good list management. That has to be factored in.

But even if you ignore the instances in which a team clearly has terrible management like Carlton and Melbourne, even then the majority of rebuilds aren't simple 5 year jobs. We can aim to be West Coast and Collingwood if we want, but the reality is those clubs were outliers in their rebuilds.

• Hawthorn needed to rebuild twice over a 13 year period and finished bottom 4 on five occasions
• Geelong never finished bottom 4 between 1995 and their 2000s flag run
• St Kilda spent a decade and a half mostly in the bottom 4 before meeting us in the grand final, then had to rebuild again, taking another 9 years to their GF appearances, and still don't have success
• Sydney spent 5 years in the bottom 4 (and eight years out of finals) before the 1996 GF they lost, and haven't needed to rebuild since
• Richmond were basically locked out of finals since the 1980s, and between 2002 and 2017 finished bottom 4 on six occasions including two spoons. Took 15 years from finishing 3rd last in 2002
• Western Bulldogs finished last in 2003 after their tilt in the late 90s, then went on to finish bottom 4 another 4 times in the 13 years it took for them to make the grand final
• Fremantle spent six seasons in the bottom 4 between 1995 and 2002, went nowhere and had to top up again with two bottom 4 finishes 5 years before their only grand final
• Essendon never rebuilt to reach their 2000 flag
• We will never replicate the list concessions of Brisbane, Port Adelaide or GWS in any rebuild we do so they are irrelevant

These are the teams that did a good job of rebuilding, and two of them didn't even rebuild. Six of these teams spent years (5+) languishing in the bottom 4, several of them required multiple rebuilds. And again these are only the rebuilds that put the club into a grand final, that's not even counting all the bottom 4 teams who as of now remain unsuccessful or unable to reach that mark

I mean just look at the teams currently in the top 4. Melbourne have been rebuilding for 20 years, the Bulldogs as above took 13 years and were successful just 5 years ago, Geelong have never rebuilt and Brisbane spent 9 consecutive years out of finals with seven bottom 4 finishes.

So I'll repeat what I said. It's normal for a successful rebuild to take about 10 years, anything faster than that is exceptional. Not needing to rebuild more than once is also exceptional. But also be prepared for a rebuild to fail and lead to a longer stretch out of contention

I wrote up a huge reply and then deleted it. I think I'll end up arguing my point, you'll argue yours and I don't think we will agree.

But I do agree with you re: tempering expectations around the coach if success isn't three years away.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Yeah no. You should look it up

Spoon to flag since 1990
Brisbane - 3 years
West Coast - 8 years
Sydney - 11 years
Collingwood - 11 years
Richmond - 13 years
Western Bulldogs - 14 years
GWS - ongoing (9 years)
Gold Coast - ongoing (10 years)
Carlton - ongoing (19 years)
Fremantle - ongoing (20 years)
St Kilda - ongoing (21 years)
Melbourne - ongoing (24 years)

Also ongoing: Brisbane, Essendon, Adelaide

If you do it in 10 years you have done really well

This misses the point I think. Some of the teams in that list contended, or made finals (I accept not always interchangeable) very soon after their spoons. It's in effect claiming that we should assume based upon history that the first contention window will fail and we'll need to commence a second rebuild. You plainly cannot be planning now for that.

For example:

1) Collingwood make grand finals in 2002, 2003 and came within a whisker of winning 02 after winning spoon in 1999;

2) St Kilda after winning the spoon in 2000 were one kick away from the grand final in 2004, and had an era that only really ended after 2010 including a tied grand final;

3) West Coast made a semi final two years after winning the spoon in '10;

4) the Bulldogs started consistently making finals 3 years after their spoon in '03, and contended afterwards.

and the Brisbane example has already been given.

I don't thin this really provides a strong argument that we should operate on an assumption that we cannot even make finals until effectively half of the careers of the players that we drafted last year are over.