Scorpus
Moderator
- Apr 16, 2014
- 58,065
- 150,224
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Moderator
- #76
As it has already been pointed out to you flags do not equal flag contention. Being there or thereabouts should never be a 10 year process. Only one team can win it each year and there are 18 teams.
The job of list management is to build a list capable of contending and winning a flag, not to actually win the flag. When you discuss rebuild you are talking about list management and development, not gameday coaching and tactics.
It also matters not at all that some teams have made the GF and got smashed - running into Hawthorn circa 2012-2015 and playing them at home in the GF and losing isn't a failure of list management and rebuilds. They were an extraordinary team and playing at home. Only Sydney managed to vanquish them in 2012. West Coast making a GF 3 or 4 years after their spoon was also extraordinary. They then went on to win the flag 8 years post rebuild, thinking 10+ years is acceptable is just downright timid in a business where ambition is vital.
Otherwise you may as well resign yourself to the 1 every 18 years mantra. Yawn.
Collingwood spoon in 99 to successive GFs in 2002 and 2003. Many other examples.
Carlton and Melbourne being so sh*te for a decade doesn't prove any rule other than it takes that goddamn long when you severely mismanage your list and recruitment.
If you finish last you are likely to mismanage or have mismanaged your list. That is the point. That is why the vast majority of spoon winners in the last 20 years have been miles off it. Only the worst clubs finish last.
That's why it's not as simple as just suddenly having good list management and rebuilding in a short period of time. If you finish last, the chances are you don't have good list management. That has to be factored in.
But even if you ignore the instances in which a team clearly has terrible management like Carlton and Melbourne, even then the majority of rebuilds aren't simple 5 year jobs. We can aim to be West Coast and Collingwood if we want, but the reality is those clubs were outliers in their rebuilds.
- Hawthorn needed to rebuild twice over a 13 year period and finished bottom 4 on five occasions
- Geelong never finished bottom 4 between 1995 and their 2000s flag run
- St Kilda spent a decade and a half mostly in the bottom 4 before meeting us in the grand final, then had to rebuild again, taking another 9 years to their GF appearances, and still don't have success
- Sydney spent 5 years in the bottom 4 (and eight years out of finals) before the 1996 GF they lost, and haven't needed to rebuild since
- Richmond were basically locked out of finals since the 1980s, and between 2002 and 2017 finished bottom 4 on six occasions including two spoons. Took 15 years from finishing 3rd last in 2002
- Western Bulldogs finished last in 2003 after their tilt in the late 90s, then went on to finish bottom 4 another 4 times in the 13 years it took for them to make the grand final
- Fremantle spent six seasons in the bottom 4 between 1995 and 2002, went nowhere and had to top up again with two bottom 4 finishes 5 years before their only grand final
- Essendon never rebuilt to reach their 2000 flag
- We will never replicate the list concessions of Brisbane, Port Adelaide or GWS in any rebuild we do so they are irrelevant
I mean just look at the teams currently in the top 4. Melbourne have been rebuilding for 20 years, the Bulldogs as above took 13 years and were successful just 5 years ago, Geelong have never rebuilt and Brisbane spent 9 consecutive years out of finals with seven bottom 4 finishes.
So I'll repeat what I said. It's normal for a successful rebuild to take about 10 years, anything faster than that is exceptional. Not needing to rebuild more than once is also exceptional. But also be prepared for a rebuild to fail and lead to a longer stretch out of contention
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