Mega Thread Squiggle 2017

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Final Siren, Feb 15, 2017.

Put it out there
  1. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 09
    Posts:
    2,990
    Chief asked me to start a new thread this year so this is it.

    Thanks for joining Squiggle 2017! This is the continuation of a journey that started here, with a chart of squiggly lines representing the race for the flag.

    Here's the end result from the last few years:

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    Ahhh, 2016, you so crazy.

    Squiggles are based on a simple model that you can read more about under INFO here. It looks only at scores and home ground advantage. Despite this, it's a fairly solid tipper, averaging 73% over the last 5 years, which goes to show how far you can go with only a little information. And it's a good excuse to talk about footy in an analytical way but without getting too technical.

    Plus they're super pretty.

    Here's the starting point for 2017! Positions are calculated from 2016 performance only: They don't take into consideration list changes, injuries, the fact that 90% of GWS is made up of first round draft picks just coming into their prime, and so on.

    [​IMG]

    And here's the result of a run through the squiggle ladder predictor:

    [​IMG]

    This has been a tumultuous off-season, with Essendon regaining half a side, North axing one, and Ross Lyon learning to care about winning again. So there may be more teams than usual moving far up and down the ladder compared to usual. But going on 2016 form alone, this is how they line up.

    I want to say up-front that I'm pretty sure I'm going to spend this year charting how awesome GWS are, especially compared to my own team. So each weekly update will be like swallowing needles. But I'm prepared to do it.

    Live squiggle! Play through past years, drag teams to where you think they belong and generate new season forecasts, and play what-if with Squiggle Sliding Doors!
     
    TheAnt, dblstR, Golumless and 153 others like this.

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  2. Coinz

    Coinz EAAAAGLLLLLEES

    West Coast
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Sep 15
    Posts:
    362
    oooo baby! Love this
     
    Nankervis brothers likes this.
  3. Doctor Gero

    Doctor Gero TheBrownDog

    Geelong
    Other teams:
    Tottenham, Mets, Bushrangers
    Joined:
    Oct 12
    Posts:
    56,493
    Location:
    Oooooooooooozing Sauce!
    Subbed. Here we go again!
     
  4. J_Moore

    J_Moore Norm Smith Medallist

    Sydney
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Jun 08
    Posts:
    9,098
    Location:
    Sydney
    I'm very scared that GWS are going to require Final Siren to extend his axes
     
  5. Abasi

    Abasi Moderator

    Hawthorn
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Apr 06
    Posts:
    49,170
    Location:
    LOBSTER CAVE
  6. Bulldog Joe

    Bulldog Joe Premiership Player

    Western Bulldogs
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    May 08
    Posts:
    3,286
    Location:
    Tasmania
    Thank you.
     
    Headless likes this.
  7. rumply

    rumply Brownlow Medallist

    Essendon
    Other teams:
    Iggles
    Joined:
    Apr 02
    Posts:
    14,494
    Essendon 2017 squiggle should soon resemble a viagra experience I had once
     
  8. Billy ray

    Billy ray Premiership Player

    Gold Coast
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Nov 13
    Posts:
    3,786
    So much love for my favourite thread on big footy.
    Final Siren will you be my (+1 day) valentine?
     
  9. Power Raid

    Power Raid Hall of Famer

    Port Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 04
    Posts:
    47,087
    Location:
    West Perth
    I'm looking forward to seeing GWS shift beyond the chart
     
  10. Senor Ed

    Senor Ed Club Legend

    Western Bulldogs
    Other teams:
    Doggies
    Joined:
    Oct 07
    Posts:
    1,256
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Final Siren shouldn't the dogs (and the rest of the teams) starting position be where they finished in 2016 (i.e position after the GF)
     
  11. Shane Hird

    Shane Hird Brownlow Medallist

    Essendon
    Other teams:
    NYJ
    Joined:
    May 06
    Posts:
    13,723
    Viva Le Squiggle!
     

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  12. X_box_X

    X_box_X Premium Platinum

    Western Bulldogs
    Other teams:
    Chelsea
    Joined:
    Mar 01
    Posts:
    18,594
    Location:
    DogLands
    No.
     
    Striker475, caMoGFC, BRAB and 4 others like this.
  13. Senor Ed

    Senor Ed Club Legend

    Western Bulldogs
    Other teams:
    Doggies
    Joined:
    Oct 07
    Posts:
    1,256
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Care to elaborate?
     
  14. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 09
    Posts:
    2,990
    Teams usually move toward the middle (50/50) between seasons, because I drop one year's worth of results. The Dogs' 2016 finishing position is comprised of their 2015 + 2016 games, but their starting position is based on 2016 only. By the end of the year, it will be based on their 2016 + 2017 games.
     
  15. Senor Ed

    Senor Ed Club Legend

    Western Bulldogs
    Other teams:
    Doggies
    Joined:
    Oct 07
    Posts:
    1,256
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Cheers, thanks for clearing that up.
     
    Headless likes this.
  16. Clems Knee

    Clems Knee Norm Smith Medallist

    Fremantle
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 09
    Posts:
    5,792
    Location:
    Perth
    Thanks for the squiggle. I hope the teams start moving their positions early in the season (especially my team).

    I tried to drag all teams to 60 for attack and 60 for defence, to see how much the fixture benefitted teams, but the predictor wouldn't recalculate the season. Any idea of how to do this?
     
  17. Chaisa

    Chaisa Norm Smith Medallist

    Sydney
    Other teams:
    The Exers
    Joined:
    Jun 13
    Posts:
    7,508
    How did the Pies get so high?
     
  18. HolyRioli

    HolyRioli Norm Smith Medallist

    Hawthorn
    Other teams:
    Leeds Utd
    Joined:
    May 09
    Posts:
    6,335
    Location:
    Perth
    Oh yes, back in
     
    iluvparis likes this.
  19. igon value

    igon value Club Legend

    Fremantle
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 16
    Posts:
    2,137
    Final Siren - do you have a screen shot of the starting point of last year? I want to see how much things drifted from before round 1 to final result. IIRC not much changed (eg no one from bottom four surprised on the upside, or vice versa with the top four).
     
  20. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 09
    Posts:
    2,990
    Sorry, dragging & recalculating should work now.

    With fixture bias, the major source (for squiggle purposes, at least) is which interstate teams you get at home vs away. Ideally you want your away interstate games to be matches you would have won or lost at home anyway, while your home interstate games are against evenly-matched opponents where the venue makes a critical difference.

    That's not something you can check by dragging teams around, though. I think it's a very even fixture based on number of home/away interstate games alone. I get everyone on 11 wins when I put them at 50/50 and run through the season.
     
    iluvparis likes this.
  21. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 09
    Posts:
    2,990
    GWS moved a long way last year:

    [​IMG]

    You can see this by hovering over their flag on the 2016 live squiggle. And you can see the starting positions for that year by using the player controls at the top.
     
    Headless and Mofra like this.
  22. X_box_X

    X_box_X Premium Platinum

    Western Bulldogs
    Other teams:
    Chelsea
    Joined:
    Mar 01
    Posts:
    18,594
    Location:
    DogLands
    WestCoast05 and folkskie like this.
  23. LittleG

    LittleG Premiership Player

    Western Bulldogs
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Nov 15
    Posts:
    3,083
    Squiggle predicting Longmire beating Beverage in all three meetings!
    When was the last time Longmire beat beverage?
     
  24. Pessimistic

    Pessimistic TheBrownDog

    Hawthorn
    Other teams:
    Horks
    Joined:
    Sep 00
    Posts:
    57,080
    Location:
    Melbourne cricket ground. Australia
    Greater Western Sydney 4.50
    Western Bulldogs 5.50
    Sydney 7.00
    Adelaide 9.00
    West Coast 11.00
    Geelong 11.00
    Hawthorn 13.00
    Fremantle 18.00
    Melbourne 23.00
    Essendon 23.00
    St Kilda26.00
    Collingwood 34.00
    Port Adelaide 34.00
    Gold Coast 41.00
    Richmond 51.00
    North Melbourne 67.00
    Carlton 101.00
    Brisbane 501.00

    Punters not that far off the squiggle - a fair gap between 7 and 8 and the rest

    Now you can believe the seasons nearly here
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2017
  25. bato

    bato Norm Smith Medallist

    Brisbane Lions
    Other teams:
    Novak Djokovic
    Joined:
    Oct 11
    Posts:
    6,422
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I think our defence needs a friend. Looks pretty lonely.