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Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017
- Thread starter Final Siren
- Start date
- Tagged users None
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- Mar 26, 2017
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- Port Adelaide
So this is the second post where I made a massive **** up with basic logic from last night. I'm going to assume someone slipped a roofie in my hot chocolate or some shit.
It could have been worse. They could have poured you a West End Draught.
First Good Friday, now Christmas! Is no day sacred!?
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Dr Tigris
Brownlow Medallist
So may ways to take that! Going deep in December, is that some sort of Christmas present from the lovely ladies in their lives? And why would Port want to play with them after that??
Apologies had to do it.
Also apologies as I'm late the party on this.
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,230
- 17,506
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- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #781
Round 11
Animated!
A good week for Geelong, who were able to lock away a win over major competitor Adelaide. They and Port Adelaide were the only teams at the top to have a positive week.
But the Giants have a lot going for them right now! By rights, their injury crisis should have seen them drop a couple of games, and then we'd be debating whether they could claw those back when they get more talent back on the park. But no. They skate along, winning all the close ones, keeping their chances of playing home finals intact.
GWS are the most balanced team in contention, and their squiggle shows where they go when they have something approaching full strength. That all makes for a very formidable combination come September.
Aside from that, not a whole lot of action this week, with results shaking out more or less as expected. The Tigers and Bombers did well, though, and it was especially handy for Richmond that the Kennedy-less Eagles are struggling, as those two teams are both fairly likely to finish 5th-8th, where home finals matter.
Gold Coast's win sent Sydney to 16th on the ladder on the weekend, so Squiggle is looking for one heck of a run from the Swans from here.
At this point it's very likely that the top 3 will come from GWS, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Geelong, and the Bulldogs. That's also the most likely top 5, but there's much more uncertainty in the 4th and 5th slots, with the Dogs in particular capable of plausibly finishing just about anywhere.
Flagpole still likes Adelaide.
Live squiggle!
Power Raid
We Exist To Win Premierships
I can see the tigers playing in a PF and anything above that is icing on the cake.
they are a much better side than they are given credit for
they are a much better side than they are given credit for
Lore
Moderator ❀
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- Dec 14, 2015
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- Essendon
- Moderator
- #783
Some teams seem to squiggle around in one spot, while others are heading pretty consistently in one direction. I guess Essendon is hung over from last year, while other teams seem to have changed a lot in their attacking or defensive strength since last year. The ones that stay roughly in one spot are probably easier for the algorithm to tip, I suppose?Round 11
Indeed. You take out those brain fades dying minutes of 2 games and they are top. Tigers are probably playing the most consistent level of football of all.
Genuine top 4 chance
Kane McGoodwin
Make me an Admin!
- May 21, 2001
- 91,677
- 99,719
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- Adelaide
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- Adelaide Crows
Main thing for the Tigers is to find a 2nd kpp forward, who can also help out in ruck.
Getting Griffiths back in the team would help.
JHF1870
Premium Platinum
- Sep 19, 2007
- 17,033
- 11,331
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
OMG, that's like the best post for 2017.
Still no one in the premiership zone.
- Aug 15, 2015
- 38,673
- 92,381
they lost to freo at the mcg and after losing 4 in a row beat a couple of struggling teams in essendon and the kangaroos. still not really seeing anything too impressive from them. good chance to make finals with their easy draw though (yes i'm aware we also have an easy draw)
GreyCrow
Make me an Admin!
- Mar 21, 2016
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- Adelaide
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- Sturt, White Sox, Tasmania
They let go of Vickery. Their own fault for not spotting his talent
- Apr 21, 2014
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- Fremantle
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- Vancouver Canucks
IIRC teams don't actually get firmly into that zone until late in the regular season. Because not only do you have to regain ground after the start of year adjustment pushes everyone back, you can't really start beating what squiggle considers 'good' teams until there are teams squiggle considers really good. Ditto finals, someone has to beat other top teams to win consecutive finals, so that inflates (if you want to call it that) the rankings of the teams which progress through finals.
There's not usually anyone firmly in the zone (Hawks dynasty excepted) until round ~15-16ish. However, in saying that, this year is worse than usual in that respect.
- Mar 13, 2006
- 4,197
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- Port Adelaide
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- Orlando Magic
Final Siren has the squiggle ever been seriously tested in betting markets over a sustained period of time where there is perceived value?
Wins/lines/futures, that kind of thing?
Wins/lines/futures, that kind of thing?
- Aug 18, 2009
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- 17,506
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- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #792
Nope. As far as I know, the best source for that kind of thing is Tony Corke over at Matter of Stats. He posts all the time and has a focus on finding value bets vs the bookies.
I respect squiggle, and port could very well be the real deal. But I just can't see what underlies their current squiggle position
- Jan 30, 2013
- 16,166
- 16,559
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
I checked it last year for wins and lines and it performed not so great, was about -5% profit on turnover and 4% chance of making profit over a season with pretty consistent trends.
I put it down to while being an excellent visual and simple display of team quality there's too many factors affecting results rather than just what the squiggle displays. Also most rating systems be it bookmakers/ people making the prices will basically use a type of squiggle as a base rating and then much more complex stuff overlapping it as their goal isn't communication, rather accuracy.
What I did note was it broke even/profited on home team bets for that particular set.
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- Apr 21, 2014
- 4,100
- 7,307
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- Fremantle
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- Vancouver Canucks
Disgraceful post Final Siren, Roby's power rankings are clearly the best source for that kind of thing.
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,230
- 17,506
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- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #796
Squiggle PSA: On holidays this week so no post from me until after Round 13!
BoydOHboyd
Team Captain
- Oct 17, 2014
- 518
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- Western Bulldogs
I'm okay with this.
Monopoly_Man
Team Captain
- Jun 1, 2015
- 462
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- Gold Coast Suns
This actually leaves a gaping hole in my life... but enjoy!
Where are you off to?
On SM-G900I using BigFooty.com mobile app
Miss Jane's boudoir.
I'm enjoying the squiggle as Port v Essendon has impacted Port's squiggle. I was getting sick of a projection which had Adelaide losing a final to Port by a point.
