Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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Dr Tigris

Premium Platinum
Aug 19, 2009
6,506
15,373
Canberra
AFL Club
Richmond
Big factor for Richmond is they're defending extremely well. I reckon they'll go deep into December. Can't wait for Port to play them.
So may ways to take that! Going deep in December, is that some sort of Christmas present from the lovely ladies in their lives? And why would Port want to play with them after that??

:D

Apologies had to do it.

Also apologies as I'm late the party on this.
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
3,821
16,203
AFL Club
Richmond
Round 11


Animated!


A good week for Geelong, who were able to lock away a win over major competitor Adelaide. They and Port Adelaide were the only teams at the top to have a positive week.

But the Giants have a lot going for them right now! By rights, their injury crisis should have seen them drop a couple of games, and then we'd be debating whether they could claw those back when they get more talent back on the park. But no. They skate along, winning all the close ones, keeping their chances of playing home finals intact.

GWS are the most balanced team in contention, and their squiggle shows where they go when they have something approaching full strength. That all makes for a very formidable combination come September.

Aside from that, not a whole lot of action this week, with results shaking out more or less as expected. The Tigers and Bombers did well, though, and it was especially handy for Richmond that the Kennedy-less Eagles are struggling, as those two teams are both fairly likely to finish 5th-8th, where home finals matter.


Gold Coast's win sent Sydney to 16th on the ladder on the weekend, so Squiggle is looking for one heck of a run from the Swans from here.

At this point it's very likely that the top 3 will come from GWS, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Geelong, and the Bulldogs. That's also the most likely top 5, but there's much more uncertainty in the 4th and 5th slots, with the Dogs in particular capable of plausibly finishing just about anywhere.


Flagpole still likes Adelaide.


More squiggle!

Live squiggle!
 

Lore

Moderator ❀
Dec 14, 2015
16,713
19,922
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Essendon
Some teams seem to squiggle around in one spot, while others are heading pretty consistently in one direction. I guess Essendon is hung over from last year, while other teams seem to have changed a lot in their attacking or defensive strength since last year. The ones that stay roughly in one spot are probably easier for the algorithm to tip, I suppose?
 

Gavin Excell

Hall of Famer
Apr 22, 2007
30,104
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Bentleigh
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Geelong
I can see the tigers playing in a PF and anything above that is icing on the cake.

they are a much better side than they are given credit for
Indeed. You take out those brain fades dying minutes of 2 games and they are top. Tigers are probably playing the most consistent level of football of all.

Genuine top 4 chance
 

Kane McGoodwin

TheBrownDog
May 21, 2001
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Adelaide
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Indeed. You take out those brain fades dying minutes of 2 games and they are top. Tigers are probably playing the most consistent level of football of all.

Genuine top 4 chance
Main thing for the Tigers is to find a 2nd kpp forward, who can also help out in ruck.

Getting Griffiths back in the team would help.
 

sobrave

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 15, 2015
10,354
19,700
42° south
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Port Adelaide
Indeed. You take out those brain fades dying minutes of 2 games and they are top. Tigers are probably playing the most consistent level of football of all.

Genuine top 4 chance
they lost to freo at the mcg and after losing 4 in a row beat a couple of struggling teams in essendon and the kangaroos. still not really seeing anything too impressive from them. good chance to make finals with their easy draw though (yes i'm aware we also have an easy draw)
 

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TheMcManusNose

Club Legend
Apr 21, 2014
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Still no one in the premiership zone.
IIRC teams don't actually get firmly into that zone until late in the regular season. Because not only do you have to regain ground after the start of year adjustment pushes everyone back, you can't really start beating what squiggle considers 'good' teams until there are teams squiggle considers really good. Ditto finals, someone has to beat other top teams to win consecutive finals, so that inflates (if you want to call it that) the rankings of the teams which progress through finals.

There's not usually anyone firmly in the zone (Hawks dynasty excepted) until round ~15-16ish. However, in saying that, this year is worse than usual in that respect.
 

PAFCsince1870

Premiership Player
Mar 13, 2006
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Final Siren has the squiggle ever been seriously tested in betting markets over a sustained period of time where there is perceived value?

Wins/lines/futures, that kind of thing?
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
3,821
16,203
AFL Club
Richmond
Final Siren has the squiggle ever been seriously tested in betting markets over a sustained period of time where there is perceived value?

Wins/lines/futures, that kind of thing?
Nope. As far as I know, the best source for that kind of thing is Tony Corke over at Matter of Stats. He posts all the time and has a focus on finding value bets vs the bookies.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
13,861
14,956
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Final Siren has the squiggle ever been seriously tested in betting markets over a sustained period of time where there is perceived value?

Wins/lines/futures, that kind of thing?
I checked it last year for wins and lines and it performed not so great, was about -5% profit on turnover and 4% chance of making profit over a season with pretty consistent trends.

I put it down to while being an excellent visual and simple display of team quality there's too many factors affecting results rather than just what the squiggle displays. Also most rating systems be it bookmakers/ people making the prices will basically use a type of squiggle as a base rating and then much more complex stuff overlapping it as their goal isn't communication, rather accuracy.

What I did note was it broke even/profited on home team bets for that particular set.
 
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