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So this is the second post where I made a massive fu** up with basic logic from last night. I'm going to assume someone slipped a roofie in my hot chocolate or some shit.You wouldn't want to cross our path come December. That's usually when we're training the house down.
So may ways to take that! Going deep in December, is that some sort of Christmas present from the lovely ladies in their lives? And why would Port want to play with them after that??Big factor for Richmond is they're defending extremely well. I reckon they'll go deep into December. Can't wait for Port to play them.
Some teams seem to squiggle around in one spot, while others are heading pretty consistently in one direction. I guess Essendon is hung over from last year, while other teams seem to have changed a lot in their attacking or defensive strength since last year. The ones that stay roughly in one spot are probably easier for the algorithm to tip, I suppose?Round 11
Indeed. You take out those brain fades dying minutes of 2 games and they are top. Tigers are probably playing the most consistent level of football of all.I can see the tigers playing in a PF and anything above that is icing on the cake.
they are a much better side than they are given credit for
Main thing for the Tigers is to find a 2nd kpp forward, who can also help out in ruck.Indeed. You take out those brain fades dying minutes of 2 games and they are top. Tigers are probably playing the most consistent level of football of all.
Genuine top 4 chance
they lost to freo at the mcg and after losing 4 in a row beat a couple of struggling teams in essendon and the kangaroos. still not really seeing anything too impressive from them. good chance to make finals with their easy draw though (yes i'm aware we also have an easy draw)Indeed. You take out those brain fades dying minutes of 2 games and they are top. Tigers are probably playing the most consistent level of football of all.
Genuine top 4 chance
IIRC teams don't actually get firmly into that zone until late in the regular season. Because not only do you have to regain ground after the start of year adjustment pushes everyone back, you can't really start beating what squiggle considers 'good' teams until there are teams squiggle considers really good. Ditto finals, someone has to beat other top teams to win consecutive finals, so that inflates (if you want to call it that) the rankings of the teams which progress through finals.Still no one in the premiership zone.
Nope. As far as I know, the best source for that kind of thing is Tony Corke over at Matter of Stats. He posts all the time and has a focus on finding value bets vs the bookies.
I checked it last year for wins and lines and it performed not so great, was about -5% profit on turnover and 4% chance of making profit over a season with pretty consistent trends.
Disgraceful post Final Siren, Roby's power rankings are clearly the best source for that kind of thing.