- Apr 20, 2001
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- Adelaide Utd,Liverpool, WWT Eagles.
For sure. I have the match ball from that game after correclty tipping the 83 point margin. It would be a 3 goal game either way right at the minute.
Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017
- Thread starter Final Siren
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- Aug 18, 2009
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That's all correct, except for the "you could perform as expected" part. In that case you would actually still stay in the same place. The inflation comes from the way the model rewards teams more for overperforming than it punishes them from underperforming.
Essentially Flagpole doesn't care about a bad loss or two, but it does pay a lot of attention to where a team's ceiling seems to be. This is especially the case later in the year, where the inflation build-up means that thumping another good team is very rewarding.
- Apr 20, 2001
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- Adelaide Utd,Liverpool, WWT Eagles.
It was the only way that ball could have bounced travelling at the speed it was, the angle it was on etc etc
RookiePick
Brownlow Medallist
- Aug 13, 2014
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NMFC15 vs WCE17
West Coast truly are becoming the new North. The squiggle had both teams pegged pretty well it seems as they both hovered around expectation. North had a late season lift and got themselves to a prelim which I'm not confident West Coast can manage at this stage but of greater concern is the plummeting fortunes of North since 2015.
I wonder if there is any correlation between the squiggle "figuring out" a side and an imminent decline? ie if you can no longer outperform the squiggles predictions is it indicative that a side has peaked?
I've spent the last four years trying to forget that day.
The Swans still aren't in the top four, and they're still a good chance to not make it. Even if they're the best team in the league, a succession of away finals may be too much.
- Aug 18, 2009
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RookiePick
Brownlow Medallist
- Aug 13, 2014
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I like the way you're thinking, but nope:
Perhaps I should rephrase...If you are nowhere near the premiership zone and the squiggle "figures you out" is your demise imminent
GreyCrow
TheBrownDog
- Mar 21, 2016
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Final Siren didnt you base your ''Freo are gone'' on something the Squiggle noticed? ie margins if I recallPerhaps I should rephrase...If you are nowhere near the premiership zone and the squiggle "figures you out" is your demise imminent
- Aug 18, 2009
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Hmm. Well, true, it's not great to be going nowhere while you're not contending. It's not very common, either... but Sydney 2009 did it, then improved over the next few years until they won a flag. Geelong 2014 didn't move a whole lot, either, and they're going okay now.Perhaps I should rephrase...If you are nowhere near the premiership zone and the squiggle "figures you out" is your demise imminent
In those cases, it seems more like they were doing the kind of ideal rebuild where they don't fall very far. Whereas most teams would fall further and then try to reclimb the mountain.
If it's not that, then there could be something in the idea that it's a sign of a team hitting its ceiling. But you're a little harsh on North 2015, I reckon, as they did start to click late in the year.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Tons of close wins, yeah. Close wins against bad teams.
Their fall in 2016 was still remarkable, dropping from minor premier to 16th, but on fundamentals they were halfway there by the end of 2015.
Power Raid
We Exist To Win Premierships
yep, that will make life hard for them
It's hard to understand what went so wrong early on. perhaps the pre-season needs a review.
Wasn't that the year where Crows had the crazy 172% percentage late in the season but choked big league in the finals?
- Jan 28, 2015
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Was 2 years prior to 119, yes.
2005 was the year of the Showdown final.
2006 was the year we flopped in the second half of the season, and had a percentage of ~172% at a certain time.
Good times.
And 2005 was 7 years after your last grand final appearance.
Perhaps I should rephrase...If you are nowhere near the premiership zone and the squiggle "figures you out" is your demise imminent
If your club is looking like peaking in the premiership zone, you take steps to maintain that. Spend more top up with players
If you peak and you know you are miles off it, you may consciously go for a rebuild or mini rebuild
Iron
Norm Smith Medallist
- May 26, 2014
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Is there a way to have videos permanently removed from the Internet
I'm asking for a friend...
Gotta love how gws and hawthorns flag pole predictor goes up after their loses. Becomes almost impossible now for hawthorn to make finals and it goes up. GWS lose to a lower ranked team and it goes up. It is so stupid.
You sound a little over-invested in what the flagpole says.
- Oct 29, 2012
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Careful, try not to let your bias show.
Iron
Norm Smith Medallist
- May 26, 2014
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It's maths. With numbers that have mostly been explained to us already. Just maths.
You're complaining that maths is stupid.
Yes the maths is stupid. Its hocus pocus statistics the lures in the naive. If offends me like natropaths offend doctors.
