Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

At the start of every year I question the squiggle and it's predictive power.

And every year, as the season goes on, I am reminded that it's not really a predictor - it's a really a tool to confirm what we already know, or at least what we suspect.

And in that vain, I think it's very appropriate that Adelaide and Sydney are the 2 teams edging closer and closer to the Squggle's premiership zone, because I've started to think that, unless something crazy happens over the last 3 weeks of the season and the first 2 weeks of the final, they are clearly the 2 teams that everyone should be fearing.

In fairness to the Squiggle, the Flagpole has always thought Sydney were cool, even when they were 0-6.

Similarly, it has not rated Richmond, even when they were 5-0.

That has to count for something.

 

[drazah]

At the start of every year I question the squiggle and it's predictive power.

And every year, as the season goes on, I am reminded that it's not really a predictor - it's a really a tool to confirm what we already know, or at least what we suspect.

And in that vain, I think it's very appropriate that Adelaide and Sydney are the 2 teams edging closer and closer to the Squggle's premiership zone, because I've started to think that, unless something crazy happens over the last 3 weeks of the season and the first 2 weeks of the final, they are clearly the 2 teams that everyone should be fearing.

Well yeah it's based on descriptive statistics (statistics that describe) and unless I'm mistaken, Final Siren doesn't use any inferential statistics (statistics that predict) in his model. Except for maybe flagpole?

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Well yeah it's based on descriptive statistics (statistics that describe) and unless I'm mistaken, Final Siren doesn't use any inferential statistics (statistics that predict) in his model. Except for maybe flagpole?

How the heck are you a Port supporter drazah?

The more posts of yours I read, the more you seem diametrically opposite to most Port supporters I have met!

 

[drazah]

How the heck are you a Port supporter drazah?

The more posts of yours I read, the more you seem diametrically opposite to most Port supporters I have met!

Haha thanks WTF, but your fellow supporters just called me scum and told me to piss off from their board, so apparently I'm still very Port supporter-like even if it's not super obvious

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Haha thanks WTF, but your fellow supporters just called me scum and told me to piss off from their board, so apparently I'm still very Port supporter-like even if it's not super obvious

What thread?

 

[drazah]

What thread?

Selwood eye gouging

 

[Jonts]

Has 13-9 ever gave you a top 4 spot
Can't see it happening

 

[drazah]

Has 13-9 ever gave you a top 4 spot
Can't see it happening

Has 17th ever beaten 1st two weeks in a row?

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Has 13-9 ever gave you a top 4 spot
Can't see it happening

St Kilda in 2008. They finished 4th with a 13-9 record and 110%, beating out the Crows with a 13-9 record and 109%.

 

[Pessimistic]

You only need fear Sydney if you go into a grand final complacent.

 

[MarcusP2]

St Kilda in 2008. They finished 4th with a 13-9 record and 110%, beating out the Crows with a 13-9 record and 109%.

Another in our list of bizarre happenings. The Bombers rolled over for the Saints and lost to them by over 100 in the last round, IIRC.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Another in our list of bizarre happenings. The Bombers rolled over for the Saints and lost to them by over 100 in the last round, IIRC.

Yep, I posted about it in detail a little earlier this evening.

Final Siren, you missed one. 2008, when Adelaide were in 4th spot going into the final round and won their last game, only for St Kilda to beat 12th placed Essendon by 108 points and push the Crows into 5th spot by less than 1%.

It was St Kilda's highest score for the year (by 3 goals, scoring 147 points) and Essendon's lowest score for the year (by 2 goals, scoring just 39 points). When they played earlier in the year, St Kilda had won by just 36 points.

The Crows then lost to 8th placed Collingwood in week 1 of the finals and were eliminated.

You know, not that I'm bitter or anything!

 

[hotkorma]

Yep, I posted about it in detail a little earlier this evening.

I think we can all agree posting that once tonight was enough

 

[SJ]

Yep, I posted about it in detail a little earlier this evening.

So much so that the Geelong Board had penned in Adelaide for its preview thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/1st-qualifying-final-that-never-was.486127/

 

[Pessimistic]

So much so that the Geelong Board had penned in Adelaide for its preview thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/1st-qualifying-final-that-never-was.486127/

Interesting prediction from 2008:


It looks like Geelong will play the Crows!!

There is only one way for us to lose the game:

Arrogance; failure to outhink the opposition and the failure to stick by the processes that have placed us in a great position to win back to back flags!!

And, there is a weak link:

Tom Harley.

He is the best captain since Fred Wooler, Sam Newman and Polly Farmer. However, as Andrew Jarman said on radio 2 months ago, his finishing and decision making skills when under enormous intense pressure are average.

He is a great leader of people. But, as a footballer, he has to prove his worth in the heat of the battle.

THE GOVERNOR

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

So much so that the Geelong Board had penned in Adelaide for its preview thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/1st-qualifying-final-that-never-was.486127/

I remember listening to the game on the radio, swearing profusely at Essendon, who gave up 7.6 to 0.1 in that final quarter.

 

[beert]

I'd be interested to see a "confidence rating" for the tower of power ie. what's a measure of the dispersion of the predictions? It seems like other than Adelaide finishing top, squiggle isn't much more sure about who is going to finish where than it has been for a few weeks now (and it's much less sure about who's going to finish bottom). One would think that it would become more certain as the season progresses, but maybe that isn't the case.

I've been thinking about it tonight, but haven't quite cracked how you would measure this.

 

[Pessimistic]

I remember listening to the game on the radio, swearing profusely at Essendon, who gave up 7.6 to 0.1 in that final quarter.

Sheedy was manipulating finals when brad scott was still in the under 11s

 

[radiojake]

North Melbourne's squiggle looks like it is hopping like a kangaroo out to meet Brisbane for a spoon fight

 

[Gralin]

i liked the old flag pole better

 

[Leeda]

Yep, I posted about it in detail a little earlier this evening.

I am wondering about your intentions tonight when you want to say that some people should not say one thing or another.

Are you saying that people should not be saying that people should be telling themselves that life is not good about being together.

You are good at shooting the people in the foot.

 

[Leeda]

Sheedy was manipulating finals when brad scott was still in the under 11s

now these things always make me wonder about the feelings about people who we always wonder about and whether they mean anything anyways.

 

[beert]

I'd be interested to see a "confidence rating" for the tower of power ie. what's a measure of the dispersion of the predictions? It seems like other than Adelaide finishing top, squiggle isn't much more sure about who is going to finish where than it has been for a few weeks now (and it's much less sure about who's going to finish bottom). One would think that it would become more certain as the season progresses, but maybe that isn't the case.

I've been thinking about it tonight, but haven't quite cracked how you would measure this.

I can't help myself.

I've done some very crude numbers, and it looks like the tower is making more definite predictions than at the start of the year, but not by a whole lot and most of that in the past few weeks.

In the past few weeks it's generally getting more definite in its prediction, but it's getting less certain about Geelong, and GWS, who both had unexpected losses, and Brisbane, who had an unexpected win.

It's interesting to compare it to this time last year, when it seemed a lot more definite. By my score, the tower was this definite by round 9 last year and only got more definite after that (although most of that does seem to be in the lower half of the table).

Backs up that it's an even season.

 

[Leeda]

I can't help myself.

I've done some very crude numbers, and it looks like the tower is making more definite predictions than at the start of the year, but not by a whole lot and most of that in the past few weeks.

In the past few weeks it's generally getting more definite in its prediction, but it's getting less certain about Geelong, and GWS, who both had unexpected losses, and Brisbane, who had an unexpected win.

crude numbers with sydney and hawks are leading me to crumble the numbers where people like humble buddy is trying to champ at the bit..

can[t be true and no way is it anything nasty...

 

[threenewpadlocks]

At the start of every year I question the squiggle and it's predictive power.

And every year, as the season goes on, I am reminded that it's not really a predictor - it's a really a tool to confirm what we already know, or at least what we suspect.

And in that vain, I think it's very appropriate that Adelaide and Sydney are the 2 teams edging closer and closer to the Squggle's premiership zone, because I've started to think that, unless something crazy happens over the last 3 weeks of the season and the first 2 weeks of the final, they are clearly the 2 teams that everyone should be fearing.

Yep, and Final Siren has never claimed the squiggle is better than a more detailed statistical model, or a very informed/rational human.
It's more that how humans in predicting games, tend to factor in things poorly in their mind. A human who correctly rated injuries would do better than the squiggle, but the issue is, most humans factor in injuries a lot more poorly than not accounting for injuries at all, which is what the Squiggle does. Similarly, the Squiggle uses a "one-size-fits-all" model for applying home ground advantage, when that's clearly not the case, for example, as it is quite clear among the 9 Melbourne teams that some teams play better at one of the two grounds than the other. But again, humans factor this in more poorly, on average, than the squiggle not accounting for this at all.