Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

[Animus]

You obviously have no idea what grief does to a person if you think this.
Nobody made the excuses, but no doubt it would've had an effect. Not just his loss, but a change in coaches mid season.

Yeah mate, Ive lost immediate family, extended family and pets as so many others have. I get what grief does.

Excuses were made and are still being made. No-one willing to touch it out of sensitivity.

A change in coach is the only logical excuse and yet people dont phrase it like that, they focus on the death of a coach.

In fact I suspect a part of our 2016 failing is down to the fact that 2015 was a year where the emotional story papered over the cracked reality.

 

[crows dude]

I wonder if Adelaide will be able to break their relatively poor finals performances of recent years. When you go through their recent history, they've had some pretty disappointing performances.

2016: Thrashed North Melbourne at the Adelaide Oval last year and then barely put up a fight against us the week after.
2015: A good win away against the Dogs at the MCG and then demolished by Hawthorn to the tune of 74 points.
2012: Lost comfortably to the Swans at home in the first week, scraped by against Freo the week after, then of course robbed right in front of me.

And as discussed, back in the 05/06 years where it was a pretty big choke job to not even make the Grand Final in either year (thankfully for the Swans since they were our bogey side).

I can see it go either way - the poor finishes to the 15 & 16 seasons could give them the impetus they need to go further, or it could play on their minds. Similar to the Swans - if by some miracle we make the Grand Final again do the losses in 14 & 16 give us the hunger or do they make us freeze up?

You'd have to say if they don't make the Grand Final this year it would be a disappointment, right? At that stage you've got to wonder if they can get over the hump, finals in 12, 15, 16 & 17 including two top four finishes without a GF appearance. Would sorta remind me of the Bulldogs of 09-11.

2012 wasnt the collingwood right in font of me game. That was 2009. 2012 was Sandos year where we should have made the GF but lost to Hawks in Prelim by a kick


QF1: Sep 7, MCG
1 Hawthorn 20.15 (135)
4 Collingwood 15.7 (97) SF1: Sep 15, MCG
Collingwood 10.13 (73)
EF1: Sep 9, Patersons Stadium West Coast 9.6 (60) PF1: Sep 22, MCG
5 West Coast 24.18 (162) Hawthorn 13.19 (97)
8 North Melbourne 9.12 (66) Adelaide 14.8 (92) GF: Sep 29, MCG
Hawthorn 11.15 (81)
EF2: Sep 8, MCG PF2: Sep 21, ANZ Stadium Sydney 14.7 (91)
6 Geelong 11.14 (80) Sydney 13.18 (96)
7 Fremantle 14.12 (96) SF2: Sep 14, AAMI Stadium Collingwood 10.10 (70)
Adelaide 12.9 (81)
QF2: Sep 8, AAMI Stadium Fremantle 11.5 (71)
2 Adelaide 5.12 (42)
3 Sydney 11.5 (71)

 

[crows dude]

2009 Finals

Qualifying / Elimination finals Semi-finals Preliminary finals Grand final

QF1: Sep 6, MCG
1 St Kilda 12.8 (80)
4 Collingwood 7.10 (52) SF1: Sep 12, MCG
Collingwood 12.11 (83)
EF1: Sep 4, AAMI Stadium Adelaide 11.12 (78) PF1: Sep 18, MCG
5 Adelaide 26.10 (166) St Kilda 9.6 (60)
8 Essendon 10.10 (70) W Bulldogs 7.11 (53) GF: Sep 26, MCG
St Kilda 9.14 (68)
EF2: Sep 5, The Gabba PF2: Sep 19, MCG Geelong 12.8 (80)
6 Brisbane 16.15 (111) Geelong 17.18 (120)
7 Carlton 15.14 (104) SF2: Sep 11, MCG Collingwood 6.11 (47)
W Bulldogs 16.11 (107)
QF2: Sep 5, MCG Brisbane 8.8 (56)
2 Geelong 14.12 (96)
3 W Bulldogs 12.10 (82)

 

[officialjc]

We choked hard even in the 2007 elimination final against hawthorn where buddy kicked seven and one near the siren.
We choked again in the 2008 elim final against collingwood where we had a good lead around half time.
05,06,07,08,09,12,15,16 with 13,14 missing finals by one game or percentage.

 

[baldandbroke]

Yeah mate, Ive lost immediate family, extended family and pets as so many others have. I get what grief does. Excuses were made and are still being made. No-one willing to touch it out of sensitivity. A change in coach is the only logical excuse and yet people dont phrase it like that, they focus on the death of a coach. In fact I suspect a part of our 2016 failing is down to the fact that 2015 was a year where the emotional story papered over the cracked reality.

Your posts show how much you don't understand at all. Better to leave this line of yours for another time or place, it's not needed in here.

 

[legend166]

My bad with the right in front of me game.

The 2012 game was the one where Tippett was huge and nearly won it right? And then we decided to give him a 4+2 contract and he's never played a game of that quality again.

 

[Billy ray]

Anyhoo.... back to squiggle.
Will suns end the year where they started?!? Thats the big question

 

[Gavin Excell]

Anyhoo.... back to squiggle.
Will suns end the year where they started?!? Thats the big question

It - Gold Coasts finishing position - is certainly the big question occupying hearts and minds across the nation

 

[Hobbes]

Here in Round 18, Tower is probably about right, because there isn't much time left for a team to abruptly get better or worse. But early in the year, teams should be a lot more vertical, as they're capable of plausibly finishing in many different spots.

Could a differently-constructed Tower take into account squiggling from new results?

 

[Final Siren]

Could a differently-constructed Tower take into account squiggling from new results?

Sorry I'm not sure what you mean by that.

I think the solution is for Tower to simulate some movement in underlying team strength, so if it randomly simulates the Hawks overperforming next week, it will also upgrade their rating, making more good Hawthorn performances more likely. That way, it will be generating hypothetical season squiggles, with teams moving around during the year, as happens in real life.

Over the course of 100,000 simulations, most of the variation will average out, but it will more accurately capture the likelihood that a team will perform steadily better (e.g. Essendon this year) or worse (Bulldogs) than seems probable in Round 1.

 

[beert]

It does become more certain as the season progresses, but it still can't be very certain. Even if there's only one game left in the season, if that's a 50/50 match and it's going to affect your ladder placing, you can only be 50% confident of finishing in any particular place.

I don't see it that way. I think with one game to go, the tower is almost certain of where teams are going to finish even in the scenario . For example, the North-Brisbane game at the end of the year might decide the spoon, but the tower is 100% sure that both teams will finish won't finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd....etc down to 16th and is 50% each for 17th and 18th. That's a pretty definite prediction.

Also, the last game of the year might change a team's position by 0, 1, 2, 3 or even more places, depending on the margin. It's a relative score, but it's still interesting to see how "locked in" the tower thinks the ladder is.

Tower is overconfident, though, especially at the start of the season, because it doesn't do enough to account for the likelihood that teams get better or worse over time. Instead, it mostly assumes that it has everyone roughly pegged for the whole year, and allows for variation around that point.

That is true this year - the tower got a little bit more certain about where teams were going to finish by round 7, but then it lost confidence and didn't know what was going to happen until round 16, when it started to work out what was going on and it's a at a year-time high of "horizontalness" at the moment. But it's still only as horizontal as it was at round 9 last year. Will be interesting to see what happens from here.

 

[HTT]

I find it more fun to point out 2007. Just the mention of 119 can be enough to trigger some Power supporters.

Yeah but the whole sanflpremiershipsdontcount argument is soooo much more fun for the rest of us

 

[Golumless]

Yeah, I mean maybe I'm overreacting since Adelaide have had two poor finals losses to my side in recent years, but I do think the way they went out in 2015 & 16 was disappointing. A 74 point loss to Hawthorn in 15 and a 36 point loss to us last year.

Hawks was a capitulation, but really they were the best side this generation has seen and we're in that phase of a side that can routinely beat teams below us, but struggled against top 8 sides (we'll ignore the whole Walsh thing seeing even if he was alive, I reckon the Hawks would have done a number on us). The Hawks did to us was what they did to every pretender to their throne for 4 seasons.

Sydney was more disappointing, but not totally unexpected. Played well of course, but losing the double chance hurt as it meant we'd be matched up in a do or do match against top 4 sides sooner; which was the group of teams we had struggled against all season. Sydney at home was always a daunting ask (and proved to be by them being in the grand final), but preliminary final was probably the best case for last season.

This season - the pass mark is a grand final.

 

[The Dice Man]

Squiggle's tower has 5 teams still with a chance of finishing top.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Squiggle's tower has 5 teams still with a realistic chance of finishing top.

Efa

 

[Leeda]

Anyhoo.... back to squiggle.
Will suns end the year where they started?!? Thats the big question

getting a rise out of them will be precious...

 

[Final Siren]

Sorry, late squiggle this week. It will come.

 

[hotkorma]

Sorry, late squiggle this week. It will come.

No real need this week

 

[OneGreatClub]

Considering that the players and staff are still receiving assistance because of what happened to Phil, it is still impacting the club as a whole.

I would be pretty certain that Ken and the Port boys are too. Ken was very close to Walsh and his family.

 

[Yuley95]

Sorry, late squiggle this week. It will come.

That's what he said

 

[HTT]

Could this have been the first not-good week for Adelaide in the history of squiggling?

 

[radiojake]

Could this have been the first not-good week for Adelaide in the history of squiggling?

Huh? You missed that slippery dip slide after the North Melbourne & Melbourne games?

 

[HTT]

Huh? You missed that slippery dip slide after the North Melbourne & Melbourne games?

It was a reference to this below, and also on a larger scale, all 4 clubs directly below them won, while they had a draw that really only takes percentage out of the equation for the two sides with a vastly inferior percentage in that. Although, there was that week where Geelong and GWS drew that was also about as bad as a week where you win can get.

Every week I say, "It was Adelaide's week,"

 

[IdiotBox]

All over this great big brown land, Big Footy aficionados are checking themselves into clinics, suffering from serious Squiggle withdrawal.

 

[Andonis1997]

All over this great big brown land, Big Footy aficionados are checking themselves into clinics, suffering from serious Sqiggle withdrawal.

I'm in a 3 hour lecture that started at 9. I need squiggle. NOW.