Mega Thread Squiggle 2017

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Final Siren, Feb 15, 2017.

Put it out there
  1. Gavin Excell

    Gavin Excell Brownlow Medallist

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    I look forward to FS' reflections on the Tigers march on a premiership
     
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  2. Heaps of fun

    Heaps of fun Brownlow Medallist

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    Why don't you get off Bigfooty and pay attention to your education.
     
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  3. Andonis1997

    Andonis1997 Brownlow Medallist

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    People do that?
     
  4. Gralin

    Gralin Moderator

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    every time there is a notification on this thread I hope for Squiggle
     
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  5. evo

    evo Premium Platinum

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    Squiggle has Hawthorn a 54% chance of beating the Tiges. Its gonna be a hummdinger.
     
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  6. Gralin

    Gralin Moderator

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    54% of the time it works every time
    upload_2017-8-2_11-48-34.jpeg
     
  7. dazbroncos

    dazbroncos Max Rooke Appreciation Society

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    I just suffered from premature squiggle..:D

    Was expecting squiggle..

    Came here for squiggle...

    Go not squiggle...

    Go Catters
     
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  8. Infra Ted

    Infra Ted Premiership Player

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    Have I ever seen a more ironic username? I think not.
     
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  9. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

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    2017 Round 19
    Honestly, Squiggle is no good this week. It was one of the greatest rounds of football in history; I can't add anything to it with charts.








    That's the good stuff. Miracles happening right in front of your face.

    But since we're here:

    [​IMG]

    Animated!

    [​IMG]

    A good week for the Cats, who belted Carlton while the Crows, Swans, and Power struggled. It was just a little spoiled by the fact that Adelaide's last-gasp draw against Collingwood was no good to the Crows for anything other than pride and finishing above Geelong, since now their percentage matters again. Assuming no more draws, that is. Of course, three weeks ago I said, "assuming no more draws," and there were immediately two more. Teams are drawing all over the place. So who knows.

    These 11-goal-wins-over-bad-teams are the kinds of games that squiggle rates and humans don't. They're easy to overlook, because you expect the better team to win comfortably. But it's worth taking notice when the margin is 70-odd instead of 30.

    It's also worth looking at scoring shots. This year I've been trialling a new algorithm in the background that will probably take over from the venerable ISTATE-91:12 in powering squiggle next year. One of the main differences is that it pays attention to scoring shots, since teams don't tend to remain unusually accurate (or inaccurate) for very long. Most weeks it doesn't make a huge difference, but this week Squiggle 2.0 rates GWS much higher for their 13.20 to Fremantle's 13.8, as well as Richmond for defeating Gold Coast 14.14 to 10.5. Geelong's victory over Carlton becomes even more emphatic (18.15 to 8.10), and Essendon (13.19) look a lot more competitive against the Bulldogs (19.13). Also St Kilda get a technical victory against Port (8.13 to 9.9), as do Collingwood over Adelaide (15.13 to 16.7).

    Meanwhile, after Adelaide's slide, Sydney are now rated the #1 form team! Just. That's based on their strength in home & away matches; finals will be a little different, both because Sydney are unlikely to finish high enough to get home finals, and because they're more of a defensive specialist than most premiership teams.

    [​IMG]
    A bit of separation has emerged after the top 2, with Adelaide and Geelong likely to claim those spots. Then Port, GWS, and Richmond form a tier, for the moment, being the most likely to take out 3rd to 5th. Sydney are the most likely to jump up alongside them.

    On the Tower, the long, snake-like tendrils of Hawthorn are creeping upward:

    [​IMG]

    That's a pretty significant chance of a Hawks finals campaign for a team that's spent most of the season eyeing off 17th.

    But there's a bit of a hard line below that, formed by Collingwood. Basically if you're better than Collingwood, you might play finals, but if you're worse than Collingwood, you can't. Also you can't if you're Collingwood.

    North's continuation of their long-running curb stomp over Melbourne had the unfortunate side-effect of making a Round 23 SpoonBowl vs Brisbane less likely. But we can always hope.

    This week's adjusted Flagpole has the Swans slip below the Cats! On original Flagpole, as seen on https://live.squiggle.com.au, Sydney are still a clear 2nd. So I'm not sure about that. But we'll go with it for now:

    [​IMG]
    More squiggles!

    Live squiggle!
     
  10. Gavin Excell

    Gavin Excell Brownlow Medallist

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    Tower of Power providing visual evidence that the many headed Hydra like Hawthorn lives. The monster must be slayed. And the Tigers (aka Heracles) is the team we look towards to deliver the coup de grace
     
  11. davos44

    davos44 All Australian

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    Now the squiggle has smelled your fear:

    Hawks will make finals, win the Elimination final, Geelong lose their Qualifyer and Hawks knock out the Cats in the Semi after Motlop plays on after a mark in the goalsquare, then gets caught holding the ball. They then knock the Crows out of the Adelaide Oval Prelim leaving Port to win the flag against Richmond.

    #nightmares
     
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  12. Gavin Excell

    Gavin Excell Brownlow Medallist

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    Hang on - in this horror scenario how do Hawks win prelim v adel but Port beat Tigers in the GF
     
  13. oriXon

    oriXon Club Legend

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    [​IMG]
     
  14. davos44

    davos44 All Australian

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    Dreams and nightmares dont have to make sense.
     
  15. Gralin

    Gralin Moderator

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    Up until the port and Richmond part it's like you wrote down word for word what I told Gill to organise. I can only imagine the shock caused your mind to reject the final words and picked the lesser for two evils for you
     
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  16. Hobbes

    Hobbes Club Legend

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    I'm very sceptical about this increased veneration for scoring shots in new versions.

    Sure, a stack of behinds can be indicative of poor luck when kicking for goal, but it can also be a consequence of

    (1) Rushed behinds
    (2) Poor penetration in the forward line. Taking shots from bad angles or distances because they can't get into better positions
    (3) Defensive pressure

    If you're going to go down this path, you really want to make calculations based on the shots which teams manage to set up, and what their chances were. This will include the easy shots which were sprayed OOB, and exclude the non-chances which dribbled through for a behind.

    Bottom line - converting chances to goals is good - it's what teams are trying to achieve.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2017
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  17. DrEvil_

    DrEvil_ Norm Smith Medallist

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    Disqualified for Langford having sex on field.
     
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  18. O'Rourke Awakens!!

    O'Rourke Awakens!! Brownlow Medallist

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    Lol
     
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  19. davos44

    davos44 All Australian

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    As you can see, my mind can go to some pretty dark places (depending on your point of view). Nothing shocks me lol.
     
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  20. davos44

    davos44 All Australian

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    Can someone load a sexual harrasment algorithm into the squiggle please?
     
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  21. Lensen

    Lensen You've ruined the act, GOB

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    Final Siren there are some people on Twitter doing some good work with scoring shot, FiguringFooty one of them - would strongly recommend looking at some of his work first before going to a blunt scoring shot model, as not all defences/forward 50 entries are similar
     
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  22. Jakksynn

    Jakksynn Premiership Player

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    I'm sure in one of the sliding doors you'll find this scenario
     
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  23. WallyStringhaus

    WallyStringhaus Team Captain

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    Spot on. Bombers had 19 points on the weekend but half a dozen of them were kicks to the goal square that got punched through for a behind and gave possession back to the Dogs.
     
  24. SJ

    SJ Moderator

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    I don't think any of this is news to Final Siren. Fact is, if the scoring shot model is more explanatory, then it's better.
     
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  25. Richo83

    Richo83 Brownlow Medallist

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    Scoring shots is a complicated one. First of all, there's a difference between scoring shots (the total amount of goals and behinds scored) and shots on goal, which is the total amount of times a team shoots towards goal hoping to score (and remember sometimes if a team can't find a target up forward they'll kick it to the boundary hoping to win a clearance and kick a goal).

    Secondly, if we use Richmond as an example because it's the side I'm most familiar with, Richmond's poor kicking is partly due to shallow entries, because it has a small forwardline which needs space, and space is not often offered close to goal, so Richmond try and hit up shallower entries which are less likely to score. To get entries close to goal, you often need a strong marking genuine tall, like Daniher. Richmond only has one of those, and even then, Riewoldt hasn't been clunking goalsquare marks for a while now. You'll often see players like Edwards, Caddy and Castagna taking fairly low percentage shots on goal, but the mindset of the team seems to be that taking a shot on goal would be better than trying to find another target up forward which could result in a turnover. Better to have a shot, if you score a goal, great, if not, reset the forward press and hope for another entry (they are also three hungry players just quietly).

    So is Richmond's poor accuracy pure bad luck, or a fault of the side? I'd say it's the latter. Richmond get a lot of scores per inside 50 entry, which shows that the midfield and backline is working okay. But in terms of the forwardline, it's not. So it's hard to evaluate whether that makes Richmond a good side or a bad side.

    I'd compare kicking accuracy in football to reception percentages in the NFL. Teams with a poor receiving group will drop catches whereas teams with a good receiving group wont. Whereas including scoring shots in a model would imply that scoring shots is like field goal accuracy in the NFL, which does fluctuate randomly, with kickers going through weird hot and cold spots. I think a team which generates a lot of shots on goal but not a lot of accuracy may be a side which has a poor forwardline. To prove this (and we'll just use scoring shots), who are the four worst sides for accuracy this year? In order Footscray, St Kilda, Collingwood and Footscray. St Kilda's forwardline is fine, that's bizarre. But the other three's forwardlines are buttons. The best for accuracy Geelong, Melbourne, Adelaide, Essendon and Brisbane, who all have fairly good forwardlines. In fact the difference between a side like say Collingwood and Essendon this year has often just been about who can kick straight this season.

    One thing which leads me to think that the accuracy is noise is that teams with poor accuracy seem to be, at least this year sides with poor forwardlines, and they also don't score as much because they're not kicking that many goals. So sides with poor forwardlines who don't score as much, do they win many premierships based on the model? Fremantle's history says no. The other conclusion is that they're sides where the midfield can't set up good entries in high scoring positions, or have forwards who are overly inaccurate, but that effectively comes to the same conclusion that the side isn't good.
    Either way, teams don't miss a lot of shots for no good reason.
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2017
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