- Oct 6, 2012
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I think you're confusing us with wet toast.Cats making the grand final? Unbloodylikely.
Crows turning it on at the 'G? Pigs will fly before that happens.
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I think you're confusing us with wet toast.Cats making the grand final? Unbloodylikely.
Crows turning it on at the 'G? Pigs will fly before that happens.
This is one of the biggest and stupidest myths on Big Footy.Crows turning it on at the 'G? Pigs will fly before that happens.
This is one of the biggest and stupidest myths on Big Footy.
2015
R10 v Blues win
EF v Dogs win
SF v Hawks loss
2016
R5 v Hawks loss
R15 v Demons win
R16 v Blues win
2017
R2 v Hawks win
R15 v Blues win
R19 v Pies draw
I count 2 losses in 3 years (9 games) and they were both against the rampaging Hawks (and the umpires).
So, 1 narrow win and 2 losses versus top 8 teams.
5 others wins versus bottom 8 teams and 1 versus a now rebuilding Hawks (who may or may not be a bottom 8 team). Nothing wrong with the myth, just need to play more top 8 teams there.
Do tell which of these big Victorian teams play at the MCG?So, 1 narrow win and 2 losses versus top 8 teams.
5 others wins versus bottom 8 teams and 1 versus a now rebuilding Hawks (who may or may not be a bottom 8 team). Nothing wrong with the myth, just need to play more top 8 teams there.
That would be all fine and dandy if that was the point the post I was responding to was making, but it wasn't, so your post is irrelevant.So, 1 narrow win and 2 losses versus top 8 teams.
5 others wins versus bottom 8 teams and 1 versus a now rebuilding Hawks (who may or may not be a bottom 8 team). Nothing wrong with the myth, just need to play more top 8 teams there.
Cats making the grand final? Unbloodylikely.
Crows turning it on at the 'G? Pigs will fly before that happens.
I wish I'd switched at the start of the year! It moved ahead of ISTATE-91:12 by another tip this week, so it's now +5. Next year it will no doubt get smashed by swings and roundabouts.Switching over to the shots on goal model this week right?
Bombers last two weeks need a cheer up.
Yep. There's far less evidence for interstate home advantage in finals. Yet if you follow the usual algorithm for tipping, you rely on it almost completely, because finals teams are usually close to each other in strength, so home state advantage becomes the deciding factor.The website recommends using the flagpole to determine the likely GF winner, rather than the ladder predictor.
Is there any particular evidence that home ground advantage is less in the regular season, among finals-quality teams, or are you including bottom 10 teams when comparing regular season to finals series? That might be a worthwhile comparison, controlling for the quality of teamsYep. There's far less evidence for interstate home advantage in finals. Yet if you follow the usual algorithm for tipping, you rely on it almost completely, because finals teams are usually close to each other in strength, so home state advantage becomes the deciding factor.
Home teams do win a lot of finals, but home teams vs interstate opponents don't win as many as you'd expect from evidence gathered in the regular season.
Since these are the games everyone's primed to play, I imagine that fundamental team strength is more important than usual. So it's good to pay more attention to that and less to venue.
Less phallically, Sydney demolished Geelong to move into that part of the chart I should really just go ahead and name THE SYDNEY AREA, because the last season they didn't spend time there was 2010. No-one else wants to live there, Sydney. It's really just you and whoever Ross Lyon was coaching at the time. But you keep coming back, year after year.
Most noticeable is Adelaide turning into a banner ad in the #1 spot. It would take an Adelaide-grade implosion for them to miss from here. Of course, if anyone can do an Adelaide-grade implosion, it's Adelaide. But top spot is almost certainly theirs.
We've won two since Adelaide last made a grand final.Sydney actually winning a grand final? I wouldn't have thought so.
We've won two since Adelaide last made a grand final.
Oh snap!We've won two since Adelaide last made a grand final.
Final Siren you are fixated on 7th when it was the most wins by any team finishing 7th. So:
Who many teams have won the flag with a 14:8 home and away record?
How many teams have won the flag within 2 games of top spot?
Sometimes statistics don't tell the whole story.
Yeah, the main problem is we don't know whether there is causality or correlation (or even if it was just a really random event that is unlikely to be repeated any time soon).Agree that these are valid and interesting questions.
Maybe it's not that getting 2 byes in 3 weeks is bad - maybe it's just that, in the past, the top 4 teams (and/or top 2 teams) have just proven to be far superior teams over the course of the season, and the finals were an extension of that.
Maybe, in the case of 2016, the competition was just much more equal. And (/or?) maybe, rather than 2 byes in 3 weeks being a bad thing, the pre-finals bye was just an equaliser that removed the (probably unquantifiable) advantage of the week 2 bye.
I don't know, but I think it'd be interesting to analyse the actual output (wins, points for, points against) of teams rather than simply analysing ladder positions. (In re-reading this post after hitting "reply", it occurred to me that, by-and-large, this is what squiggle measures... Oh, sweet irony!)
Yeah, the main problem is we don't know whether there is causality or correlation (or even if it was just a really random event that is unlikely to be repeated any time soon).
FS - is there a real danger that in making conclusions about the pre finals bye based on a statistical sample of 1?
The quality of 7th place teams wasn't his entire point, rather that you have to win 4 finals on the road to win a flag from 7th, which is a lot more difficult than winning 3 with at least 2 at home games and having a week off in the middle. The bye may close the gap in difficulty slightly.Final Siren you are fixated on 7th when it was the most wins by any team finishing 7th. So:
Who many teams have won the flag with a 14:8 home and away record?
How many teams have won the flag within 2 games of top spot?
Sometimes statistics don't tell the whole story.
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I think a point often forgotten is that between 1972 and 1990, with the final 5 system, the top team would also have 2 byes in 3 weeks prior to the Grand Final, provided they won their first final (which was the semi final after not having to play in week 1).Agree that these are valid and interesting questions.
Maybe it's not that getting 2 byes in 3 weeks is bad - maybe it's just that, in the past, the top 4 teams (and/or top 2 teams) have just proven to be far superior teams over the course of the season, and the finals were an extension of that.
Maybe, in the case of 2016, the competition was just much more equal. And (/or?) maybe, rather than 2 byes in 3 weeks being a bad thing, the pre-finals bye was just an equaliser that removed the (probably unquantifiable) advantage of the week 2 bye.
I don't know, but I think it'd be interesting to analyse the actual output (wins, points for, points against) of teams rather than simply analysing ladder positions. (In re-reading this post after hitting "reply", it occurred to me that, by-and-large, this is what squiggle measures... Oh, sweet irony!)