Mega Thread Squiggle 2017

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Final Siren, Feb 15, 2017.

Put it out there
  1. androidtommy

    androidtommy Team Captain

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    I think squiggle usually favours an attacking side over defensive, so that may be part of it
     
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  2. WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

    WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot Norm Smith Medallist

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    Yep, that was my first thought as well. The Squiggle has a preference for teams that can score big. So, even if Adelaide and Sydney are roughly on the same 45 degree line, the Squiggle will probably still slightly favour Adelaide.
     
  3. Dogs_r_barking

    Dogs_r_barking Premiers 2016

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    Despite some bitter salty fans on Bigfooty, I would like Sydney to get up.
     
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  4. Dirty Bird

    Dirty Bird Pokémon Master

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    Home state
    The squiggle treats Geelong as non-Victorian because of their ridiculous home field advantage at kardinia.
     
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  5. Ricky Vaughn

    Ricky Vaughn Club Legend

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    Sooking about Kardinia Park has now spilled into the squiggle thread.

    Is there no place left we can escape it?
     
  6. SJ

    SJ Moderator

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    o_O:rolleyes:

    What is this? When did home grounds in the home city of a club become a "ridiculous advantage"? Geelong has played there for 76 years!
     
  7. Dirty Bird

    Dirty Bird Pokémon Master

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    Wtf
    My point is you have a strong home ground advantage
    Nothing about it being unfair or whatever crackpot conspiracy you think I'm sprouting

    What is it and your victim mentality. Not everyone is picking on you.
     
  8. Gavin Excell

    Gavin Excell Brownlow Medallist

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    The word "ridiculous " implies
     
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  9. radiojake

    radiojake Brownlow Medallist

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    Ridiculously good/effective home advantage i think was meant
     
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  10. SJ

    SJ Moderator

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    Where is the evidence that it is "ridiculous" and moreso than any other home ground advantage?
     
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2017
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  11. Partridge

    Partridge Hall of Famer

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    Didn't seem to offer much of a ridiculous home ground advantage against Sydney.

    Mind you that was back in the distant past, all of 14 days ago.
     

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  12. Rotayjay

    Rotayjay Norm Smith Medallist

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    Nothing wrong with having a strong home ground advantage.
     
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  13. Lore

    Lore Moderator

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    Tower of power looks really strange at the moment. Lots of teams are weird shapes.
     
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  14. WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

    WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot Norm Smith Medallist

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    It's because, with 1 and a bit rounds, left you are left with a lot of binary results. A win vs a loss will make a big difference for a lot of teams. There isn't really a middle ground.
     
  15. WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

    WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot Norm Smith Medallist

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    So, about this method that favours more scoring shots! ;)
     
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  16. Lore

    Lore Moderator

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    Draws to Adelaide and Geelong putting them out of step with GWS on premiership points, and Geelong and GWS playing each other next week would explain the probabilities and therefore the shape of it (binaries as you said). Looks like they're possibly in the wrong order as well though, like GWS should probably be to the right of/below Geelong (depending on which way you look at it), which it would be using the current season predictor ladder.

    Final Siren does the tower of power use the season predictor ladder current to the end of the previous round to determine the order of the teams, or does it use a live ladder or something else to determine the order of the teams?
     
  17. Jimmybob

    Jimmybob It's coming..

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    Dat north east movement
     
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  18. harrythetiger

    harrythetiger Premiership Player

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    The squiggle rates us!
     
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  19. Alfar

    Alfar Senior List

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    Vertical movement!

    And just to prove the footy gods exist and hate us; Squiggle predict's we'll run into the only two teams in the premiership zone and go out in straight sets.
     
  20. Joao

    Joao Club Legend

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    We're going to be starting next year as spoon favourites... :'(
     
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  21. Hobbes

    Hobbes Club Legend

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    It may be right, or

    (1) Richmond might steal third place
    (2) Port might keep its percentage over Sydney for 5th.
     
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  22. harrythetiger

    harrythetiger Premiership Player

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    Pretty funny that the ladder predictor has us 4th but the tower rates that almost no chance, it's either 3rd or 6th.
     
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  23. Hobbes

    Hobbes Club Legend

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    With a win, 3rd if GWS win and 3rd/4th if Geelong win. With a loss, probably 6th as Sydney and Port will win on percentage.
     
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  24. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

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    Yep, it's 90% likely to be 3rd or 6th. The ladder predictor tries to get as close as possible to the real finishing position, so in a situation like this, where there's a 60% likelihood of 3rd and a 30% likelihood of 6th, it hedges its bets, essentially averaging out the chances to wind up with 4th.
     
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  25. harrythetiger

    harrythetiger Premiership Player

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    IMG_6452.PNG
    Interesting finals series at 1% luck (door number 2,463,213,471)