Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

androidtommy

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Similar question about the forecast grand final actually. Adelaide winning by a couple of goals, but they are about equal on the squiggle. Does the forecast use a different algorithm? (I know that it is more accurate to ignore home ground advantage). Also, does it give Adelaide home ground advantage for the GF as they are finishing higher?
I think squiggle usually favours an attacking side over defensive, so that may be part of it
 

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WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

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I think squiggle usually favours an attacking side over defensive, so that may be part of it
Yep, that was my first thought as well. The Squiggle has a preference for teams that can score big. So, even if Adelaide and Sydney are roughly on the same 45 degree line, the Squiggle will probably still slightly favour Adelaide.
 

SJ

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Well
Home state
The squiggle treats Geelong as non-Victorian because of their ridiculous home field advantage at kardinia.
o_O:rolleyes:

What is this? When did home grounds in the home city of a club become a "ridiculous advantage"? Geelong has played there for 76 years!
 

Dirty Bird

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#BostonStrong #RiseUp
Wtf
My point is you have a strong home ground advantage
Nothing about it being unfair or whatever crackpot conspiracy you think I'm sprouting

What is it and your victim mentality. Not everyone is picking on you.
 

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Lore

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It's because, with 1 and a bit rounds, left you are left with a lot of binary results. A win vs a loss will make a big difference for a lot of teams. There isn't really a middle ground.
Draws to Adelaide and Geelong putting them out of step with GWS on premiership points, and Geelong and GWS playing each other next week would explain the probabilities and therefore the shape of it (binaries as you said). Looks like they're possibly in the wrong order as well though, like GWS should probably be to the right of/below Geelong (depending on which way you look at it), which it would be using the current season predictor ladder.

Final Siren does the tower of power use the season predictor ladder current to the end of the previous round to determine the order of the teams, or does it use a live ladder or something else to determine the order of the teams?
 

Hobbes

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Vertical movement!

And just to prove the footy gods exist and hate us; Squiggle predict's we'll run into the only two teams in the premiership zone and go out in straight sets.
It may be right, or

(1) Richmond might steal third place
(2) Port might keep its percentage over Sydney for 5th.
 
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Pretty funny that the ladder predictor has us 4th but the tower rates that almost no chance, it's either 3rd or 6th.
Yep, it's 90% likely to be 3rd or 6th. The ladder predictor tries to get as close as possible to the real finishing position, so in a situation like this, where there's a 60% likelihood of 3rd and a 30% likelihood of 6th, it hedges its bets, essentially averaging out the chances to wind up with 4th.
 
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