Mega Thread Squiggle 2017

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Final Siren, Feb 15, 2017.

Put it out there
  1. The Swans Blog

    The Swans Blog Premium Platinum

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    Final Siren Crows likely to be without Sloane for the first final, an upset brewing perhaps...?
     

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  2. GreyCrow

    GreyCrow Brownlow Medallist

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    Squiggle does not recognise appendicitis
     
  3. Andonis1997

    Andonis1997 Brownlow Medallist

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    And if both Adelaide teams keep winning, we have ourselves a Showdown GF.
     
  4. Billy ray

    Billy ray Premiership Player

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    My Suns. My Suns.
    The season ended. The pain has gone. No more hurt.

    Back where we started the year.
     
  5. Hobbes

    Hobbes Club Legend

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    Worth a mention in the category of "best team to not play finals" but a 66 average didn't make my cut.
     
  6. Monopoly_Man

    Monopoly_Man Team Captain

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    I'm actually furious at the Suns for this occurrence. If they didn't lie down and die against the Power than the Swans would have been 5th and on the other side of the draw.

    For what it's worth, I think Adelaide will lose next week and set up a showdown semi final, before breaking the Tigers' heart's in the prelim. They'll meet the Swans in the grand final, who themselves have just given their crosstown rival deja vu in the other prelim.

    We'll get the right grand final yet!

    On SM-G900I using BigFooty.com mobile app
     
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  7. roacheee

    roacheee Team Captain

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    10% luck and we win the flag

    but its impossible, cos it says we beat melbourne in the gf

    tee hee hee

    go dees
     
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  8. Here2tellyouwhy

    Here2tellyouwhy SA GREAT

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    Thanks for the quote. Made my day already :)
     
  9. tazaa

    tazaa Brownlow Medallist

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    The Tower makes for painful viewing if you support Melbourne
    Painful
     
  10. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

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    [​IMG]

    This isn't very different to regular Squiggle since by now the influence of 2016 games is pretty small.

    Here's another alternate version: this one using what will probably be the Squiggle 2.0 algorithm:

    [​IMG]

    Squiggle 2.0 cares more about scoring shots and also permits a lot of movement in the very early rounds of the year.

    A few notable differences:
    • Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Richmond and Essendon all get a boost from good Round 1 results, while Sydney drop a lot.
    • Sydney's recent form isn't rated as highly, since the Swans have been unusually accurate, kicking 72.39 in their last 4 games.
    • West Coast aren't rated as highly
     
  11. SgtSchulz

    SgtSchulz Norm Smith Medallist

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    Couldn't you say more accuracy is related to better set up for shots vs. peppering the goals with low quality.
     
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  12. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

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    Yep, no doubt it often is. There's good reason to treat goals as more important than behinds. Just not six times more important.
     
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  13. SgtSchulz

    SgtSchulz Norm Smith Medallist

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    None more so than the Westhoff behind at KP from Dixon. Good piece of play set up Dixons shot.
     
  14. Billy ray

    Billy ray Premiership Player

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    If you invert the scales, the Suns are in the right spot.
    Congratulation meeee!
     
  15. Hepps

    Hepps Senior List

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    Hey Final Siren, you going to be doing those finals previews? Only piece of footy analysis worth reading, it's been a really lean week as it is!

    Also how did this thread get to page 4? About time for a sticky surely...
     
    Crankyhawk, Final Siren, Juke and 8 others like this.
  16. beert

    beert Team Captain

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    Is there a tower for the flag? That would be cool.
     
  17. Crowbots are dead

    Crowbots are dead Club Legend

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    Maybe but every team has these shoulda coulda moments
     
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  18. harrythetiger

    harrythetiger Premiership Player

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  19. sante

    sante is working

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  20. GreyCrow

    GreyCrow Brownlow Medallist

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    [​IMG]Adelaide 101 - 73 Greater Western Sydney [​IMG]
    Adelaide Oval (SA)

    [​IMG]Geelong 83 - 71 Richmond [​IMG]
    M.C.G. (VIC)

    [​IMG]Sydney 111 - 64 Essendon [​IMG]
    S.C.G. (NSW)

    [​IMG]Port Adelaide 86 - 62 West Coast [​IMG]
    Adelaide Oval (SA)


    This weeks tips for Squiggle
     
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  21. Aramis

    Aramis Premium Platinum

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    harrythetiger likes this.
  22. The Swans Blog

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    Squiggles man Final Siren has gone MIA with his team playing finals, no doubt partying every night at the idea of playing at least 2 finals this year, losing both no doubt.
     
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  23. harrythetiger

    harrythetiger Premiership Player

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    I couldn't find an article on The Arc about finals predictions last year. Final Siren may know or have some idea about what was predicted?
     
  24. iluvparis

    iluvparis Brownlow Medallist

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    Understandable - bloke is probably 2 boxes deep in tissues and moisturizer
     
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  25. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

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    Finals Week 1 Preview

    [​IMG]

    There's been a clear top 2 for a while, and it's Adelaide and Sydney, who are the first and sixth teams on the ladder. If it were one year ago, everyone would be writing Sydney off, as no team had ever come from outside the top 4 to make the Grand Final, let alone win it. But the Bulldogs changed that, and then spent this season dropping hints that it wasn't because they had become a superstar team without anyone noticing.

    So it's all bets off, as far as I'm concerned, and current form is king.

    Adelaide Crows v GWS Giants

    [​IMG]

    The Crows started the year with a series of high-scoring matches, propelling them vertically up the chart. Then before you could say "premiership favourite," they were humiliated in consecutive matches by a Spoonbowl contestant and a team that didn't want to play finals if it meant having to beat Collingwood.

    Since then, though, Adelaide have toughened up defensively while retaining most of their attacking power.

    The Giants began the year as the second-ranked team and fell as injury bit. They could easily have finished outside the top 4, but managed to scrounge together enough close wins and draws to give themselves a straight shot at a Grand Final. It's been that sort of year for GWS, with few outstanding performances and plenty of shaky ones that haven't cost them.

    Geelong Cats v Richmond Tigers

    [​IMG]

    We need to zoom out a bit further for this one, because Richmond started the year ranked as a bottom 6 team. That means that not only did they have a bad 2016, but they didn't show anything toward the end of the year that suggested a rise was on the cards, either. But rise they did, becoming a low-scoring but defensively formidable team. And in the final two games, they showed some attacking power as well.

    The Cats are in a similar area, but have trod a far more meandering path, with a season that was never too good nor too bad for too long. They've demolished poor teams and recorded solid wins over good ones, but also had a raft of eyebrow-raising performances, such as losing to Gold Coast and squeaking home against Fremantle and North Melbourne. As such, it's hard to draw a steady bead on the Cats, or find anything like a trend.


    Sydney Swans v Essendon Bombers

    [​IMG]

    Hard to say which line is more extraordinary: Essendon's emergence from the absolute bottom to reach finals, or Sydney's tale of a season in two parts. The Swans were never quite as out of form as their ladder position of 16th at the mid-season bye suggested, but there's a clear inflection point here, with an early slide arrested and then dismissed as if it never happened. Since Round 7, the Swans have become once again a completely typical Sydney side, of the kind that made the Grand Final in 2014 & 2016 and won it in 2012. There's an alluring discipline about them, with no really head-scratching performances after those first 6 rounds.

    Essendon similarly took 7 rounds to really get going, notwithstanding their emotion-charged Round 1 win over the Hawks. They've made finals on the back of a mid-season stretch that saw them account for Geelong, West Coast, Port Adelaide, and St Kilda, during which time they also didn't fall too short of Sydney, GWS, and Richmond. The last month has been shakier, though, with the Bombers losing comprehensively to Adelaide and the Bulldogs, while not showing terribly much against Gold Coast and Fremantle.

    Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles

    [​IMG]

    All year the Eagles have delivered roughly what you would expect: sometimes a little more, sometimes a little less, but never too far beyond expectation. They stand in stark contrast to Port Adelaide, who, when they're on, are very, very on. When they're off, Port are still usually competitive, but it's that gap between their regular setting and the turbo charge switch they flip against lower sides in Gold Coast, Fremantle, Brisbane, and Carlton that has earned them the "flat track bully" moniker.

    That's probably undeserved, even though they haven't proved it yet. The Power have been a candidate for Top Four for most of the year, holding the league's second-best percentage, while the Eagles have spent it skirting the fringes of the Eight. If the results of other games had gone only slightly differently, Port could easily be playing a Qualifying Final this weekend with the Eagles players on holiday.