Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

harrythetiger

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The free kick count is so lopsided because the umps refuse to pay free kicks to the Swans.
Look at the Crows game, Jenkins practically does a 720 on two occasions but no holding the ball. JPK gets tackled at a centre bounce and gets pinged for holding the ball, 2 seconds after he takes possession. Crows players get tackled, drop the ball, play on. Swans players don't even get tackled, the ball gets knocked out of their hands, holding the ball gets paid to the Crows.
That crows game was straight up farcical. You got some help late BUT the only reason the crows were even in it was because you couldn't buy a free kick in the 2nd or 3rd. Was clearly umpire assisted to make it close.
 

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richoatthedisco

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Why do you think they do?

Prove that the travel is to blame.

West Coast have had 7 players play 250+ games.

Port Adelaide have had 2.

Melbourne have had 8 and been in the competition about 100 years longer.
For the first 70 years of the comp, seasons were of 17 or 18 games. 22-game seasons didn't come in until 1970. 250 games is 14 18-game seasons, but only 11.4 22-game seasons.

Even if you factor in finals, Melbourne didn't play finals between 1964 and 1987, West Coast has played 48 finals since 1987, Melbourne 28. West Coast players have been able to rack up more games in fewer seasons than Melbourne players.

Because our free kick count is always lopsided. We demolished Essendon on the weekend and still lost the free kick count. According to the #bravedogs that ain't supposed to happen.
Sydney were reemed in the Adelaide game but the media decided to focus the post game discussion around the one free that Eddie didn't receive. We know what the score is. Sydney have to get 4-5 goals up to beat the umps.
So be it ...
The free kick count is so lopsided because the umps refuse to pay free kicks to the Swans.
Look at the Crows game, Jenkins practically does a 720 on two occasions but no holding the ball. JPK gets tackled at a centre bounce and gets pinged for holding the ball, 2 seconds after he takes possession. Crows players get tackled, drop the ball, play on. Swans players don't even get tackled, the ball gets knocked out of their hands, holding the ball gets paid to the Crows.
We have the worst free kick differential in the league. This gives me hope a Richmond-Sydney GF might be fairly umpired.
 

Number37

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For the first 70 years of the comp, seasons were of 17 or 18 games. 22-game seasons didn't come in until 1970. 250 games is 14 18-game seasons, but only 11.4 22-game seasons.

Even if you factor in finals, Melbourne didn't play finals between 1964 and 1987, West Coast has played 48 finals since 1987, Melbourne 28. West Coast players have been able to rack up more games in fewer seasons than Melbourne players.






We have the worst free kick differential in the league. This gives me hope a Richmond-Sydney GF might be fairly umpired.
The umps will be confused as F, one will be blowing the whistle for #freekickhawthorn, another will blow the whistle for #freekickbulldogs. The other will call play on.

First GF where no team gets a free kick, will be like that time when Essendon didn't dope.
 

harrythetiger

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The umps will be confused as F, one will be blowing the whistle for #freekickhawthorn, another will blow the whistle for #freekickbulldogs. The other will call play on.

First GF where no team gets a free kick, will be like that time when Essendon didn't dope.
And the game, regardless of how ridiculous it is to have no free kicks, will be far better for not having umpires making dumb decisions at critical moments.
 

GreyCrow

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And the game, regardless of how ridiculous it is to have no free kicks, will be far better for not having umpires making dumb decisions at critical moments.
Remember when the phrase ' the umpires put his whistle away'' was music to the ears
 

Lensen

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Remember when the phrase ' the umpires put his whistle away'' was music to the ears
they still do that now which is why there are 5000 throws a game, players get tackled without the ball all the time, scrums occur because holding the ball isn't paid etc
 

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The free kick count is mostly lopsided because Sydney are a defence based side who frequently prioritise laying a tackle (or applying pressure) over going the ball. In fact I'd hazard a guess and suggest they give some away intentionally from time to time as it gives them time to get back and set up, couple good examples of it against Essendon spring to mind. Another good example of prioritising the tackle/pressure over the ball was vs Adelaide recently - watch Isaac Heeney trying to tag Sloane, the amount of times Sloane ran at the ball then pulled up and Heeney was already committed to the tackle kept resulting in free kicks. I actually thought Sloane was incredibly clever and has clearly learned a good method or two to help deal with tags. Not saying that particular match Adelaide didn't have a generally favourable run with the umpires because other than a couple key ones we certainly had the benefit. The point I'm more so making is I see more and more Sydney fans complaining about umpires than ever when in reality I don't think they are getting much of a raw deal at all so much as it's just the way the type of game they play resulting in giving a few more away.

When it comes to the Swans, the umpires for some reason (??) are not paying free kicks. You do not get sub-par performance like last year's Grand Final by accident. In two and a half quarters one team gets fifteen free kicks while the other gets one!!!! That was the same in the Adelaide Swans game the other week. Heeney only had to touch Sloane for Sloane to get a free kick. I'd like to see that sort of protection for Buddy.
 
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Looks like the Squiggle Thread has turned into a Sydney sob story of the umpires picking on them! Move on and bring on the squiggle!!!! :D
Yeah in the interests of keeping the squiggle thread from turning into a crap thread I won't respond to those who responded to me and apologise for offering my analysis here, should have added it to a different thread probably. I don't have anything against Sydney they are a great side and going to trouble anyone they play no matter what ground, hard not to respect that.
 

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Number37

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Looks like the Squiggle Thread has turned into a Sydney sob story of the umpires picking on them! Move on and bring on the squiggle!!!! :D
If we had beaten the Crows by 4 goals instead of 1 our squiggle position would have been better & theirs worse. Umpires gifting the Crows free kicks & not paying any our way for 2 quarters can therefore have an effect on the squiggle.
 

iluvparis

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Without angering the Squiggle gods - Richmond 17 reminds me a bit of Collingwood 03:
- not rated by the squiggle for much of the year
- burst into squiggle considerations late in the year
- impressive QF win opening up the soft side of the draw to the grand final
- grand final result....:'(
 

Lensen

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Without angering the Squiggle gods - Richmond 17 reminds me a bit of Collingwood 03:
- not rated by the squiggle for much of the year
- burst into squiggle considerations late in the year
- impressive QF win opening up the soft side of the draw to the grand final
- grand final result....:'(
why bring that up ffs
 

The Swans Blog

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Looks like the Squiggle Thread has turned into a Sydney sob story of the umpires picking on them! Move on and bring on the squiggle!!!! :D
And we didn't even start it.

Quit holding out on us Final Siren, its not funny anymore! :mad:

Must have predictions where Swans win grand final...
 

BTs Nana

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If we had beaten the Crows by 4 goals instead of 1 our squiggle position would have been better & theirs worse. Umpires gifting the Crows free kicks & not paying any our way for 2 quarters can therefore have an effect on the squiggle.
Just ignore all the stats that said we had the better of the game. Ignore the fact that in clutch moments you were gifted frees. Ignore the fact you were saved from a blowout by inaccurate kicking.

You aren't the best side this year, you won't win the flag and that is all that there is to it. Overrated second only to Richmond.
 

Number37

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Just ignore all the stats that said we had the better of the game. Ignore the fact that in clutch moments you were gifted frees. Ignore the fact you were saved from a blowout by inaccurate kicking.

You aren't the best side this year, you won't win the flag and that is all that there is to it. Overrated second only to Richmond.
We only had the better of the goals + behinds stat.
I could be wrong, but I think that is kinda important.

But let's not let the scoreboard get in the way of your moral victory.
 
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Thread starter #1,593
2017 Finals Week 1​



a.k.a. "Richmond goes wheeee!"


Throughout the season, the squiggle refused to rate Richmond any higher than a somewhat-above-average team. Now there are only six teams left, the Tigers are rated 3rd, i.e. still just on the better side of average. But they made a big move after holding Geelong to only 40 points, essentially pulling level with Adelaide in terms of raw form.

That's still not enough for a flag, because squiggle respects the historical fact that attacking teams have outperformed defensive teams when it counts over the last two decades. So while the Tigers have a dream run to the Grand Final, avoiding both top teams and hosting an interstate opponent for a prelim, squiggle doubts they can contain the scoring power of Adelaide or Sydney if they get there.

Nevertheless, the Tigers are certainly close enough to give it a shake, which is just about the most exciting thing I've experienced in my entire football-following life. So that's something.

There's not a whole lot to say about Adelaide v GWS or Sydney v Essendon, both of which played out to expectation.

But Port v West Coast! Once again, the Power failed to knock off a well-rated opponent, although only just, in the cruelest possible way. Taking an 8 scoring shot advantage and turning it into 2 fewer goals and 10 more behinds is going to sink any team.

Despite all the evidence Port has offered to the contrary, there's still reason to believe they're a very good team, and if they can avoid self-immolating over the off-season, they could follow in the footsteps of Sydney 2015, who kicked themselves out of their first final against Fremantle (7.18 to 10.9), then rebounded the next year to win the minor premiership and contest the Grand Final. Port's stumbles in 2017 have been absurd, dramatic and memorable, so it's easy to forget they annihilated the bottom tier of the competition, beat most of the middle tier, and weren't too far off the rest, while recording wins over Sydney and West Coast.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are lurking just close enough to be dangerous. All year, they've been thereabouts, competitive in practically every game, including those against everyone they have to beat for the flag. They are rightly underdogs, but having landed on the soft side of the draw, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that the Eagles could defeat the Giants, who they only lost to by 8 points earlier this year, then Richmond, who they lost to by 11, and then take on Sydney or Adelaide, both of whom they've beaten.

An Eagles flag would be mind-boggling, given they were unlikely even to make finals a few rounds ago. In another year, I'd say it was fanciful, because normally we have at least one truly dominant team plus a tradition of rested Qualifying Final winners beating up Semi-Finalists. But this year, our top two in Adelaide and Sydney haven't created as much separation from the field, you only have to beat one of them (unless you're Geelong), and there's the unknown quantity of the pre-finals bye in play. So almost anything is within the realms of possibility.

On flagpole, it's bombs away and lights out!



Richmond squeak into 3rd even with the heavily defensive game plan that Flagpole abhors. And Geelong are still rated pretty well, even though in the real world everyone has concluded that they are the worst football team to ever play the game and who will win that Adelaide v Sydney prelim.

Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans

There's a long history, of course, of people overrating Elimination Final winners and underrating Qualifying Final losers. But it's still hard to see Sydney dropping this one: They're a premiership favourite who finished much lower on the ladder than their form suggested, while the Cats made top 4 on the back of a few close wins and didn't fire a shot against the Tigers.

GWS Giants vs West Coast Eagles

This one is harder to pick, with neither team having stood out over the season, but both also refusing to go away. In a neutral venue, squiggle would pick the Eagles, but only just; in NSW, it gives it to the Giants.


I'm just going to stare at that for a while now. I basically made that Squiggle Doors function just so I would have an excuse to imagine Richmond Grand Finals in alternate universes. Now there might be one in this one! That's even better.

By the way, I would also like to take this moment to enjoy when hardly anybody has started hating Richmond crowds yet. I know that's coming, because Richmond crowds when the Tigers are on the verge of success are the ******* worst. Not for me. They're fine for me, because I'm wearing yellow and black. But for other teams' supporters. I didn't see anything bad at the Geelong game, but I've been to every final of the last five years, and they bring out plenty of mentally damaged individuals who have been psychologically broken by the last 35 years of heartache and now clearly believe they are the plaything of a malevolent deity who can only be banished by a spray of alcohol-fueled insults. If we make a Grand Final, it's going to be so ugly. I mean win or lose, either way, there is going to be some shit on display. So it's nice to get in before that.
 

Number37

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2017 Finals Week 1​



a.k.a. "Richmond goes wheeee!"


Throughout the season, the squiggle refused to rate Richmond any higher than a somewhat-above-average team. Now there are only six teams left, the Tigers are rated 3rd, i.e. still just on the better side of average. But they made a big move after holding Geelong to only 40 points, essentially pulling level with Adelaide in terms of raw form.

That's still not enough for a flag, because squiggle respects the historical fact that attacking teams have outperformed defensive teams when it counts over the last two decades. So while the Tigers have a dream run to the Grand Final, avoiding both top teams and hosting an interstate opponent for a prelim, squiggle doubts they can contain the scoring power of Adelaide or Sydney if they get there.

Nevertheless, the Tigers are certainly close enough to give it a shake, which is just about the most exciting thing I've experienced in my entire football-following life. So that's something.

There's not a whole lot to say about Adelaide v GWS or Sydney v Essendon, both of which played out to expectation.

But Port v West Coast! Once again, the Power failed to knock off a well-rated opponent, although only just, in the cruelest possible way. Taking an 8 scoring shot advantage and turning it into 2 fewer goals and 10 more behinds is going to sink any team.

Despite all the evidence Port has offered to the contrary, there's still reason to believe they're a very good team, and if they can avoid self-immolating over the off-season, they could follow in the footsteps of Sydney 2015, who kicked themselves out of their first final against Fremantle (7.18 to 10.9), then rebounded the next year to win the minor premiership and contest the Grand Final. Port's stumbles in 2017 have been absurd, dramatic and memorable, so it's easy to forget they annihilated the bottom tier of the competition, beat most of the middle tier, and weren't too far off the rest, while recording wins over Sydney and West Coast.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are lurking just close enough to be dangerous. All year, they've been thereabouts, competitive in practically every game, including those against everyone they have to beat for the flag. They are rightly underdogs, but having landed on the soft side of the draw, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that the Eagles could defeat the Giants, who they only lost to by 8 points earlier this year, then Richmond, who they lost to by 11, and then take on Sydney or Adelaide, both of whom they've beaten.

An Eagles flag would be mind-boggling, given they were unlikely even to make finals a few rounds ago. In another year, I'd say it was fanciful, because normally we have at least one truly dominant team plus a tradition of rested Qualifying Final winners beating up Semi-Finalists. But this year, our top two in Adelaide and Sydney haven't created as much separation from the field, you only have to beat one of them (unless you're Geelong), and there's the unknown quantity of the pre-finals bye in play. So almost anything is within the realms of possibility.

On flagpole, it's bombs away and lights out!



Richmond squeak into 3rd even with the heavily defensive game plan that Flagpole abhors. And Geelong are still rated pretty well, even though in the real world everyone has concluded that they are the worst football team to ever play the game and who will win that Adelaide v Sydney prelim.

Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans

There's a long history, of course, of people overrating Elimination Final winners and underrating Qualifying Final losers. But it's still hard to see Sydney dropping this one: They're a premiership favourite who finished much lower on the ladder than their form suggested, while the Cats made top 4 on the back of a few close wins and didn't fire a shot against the Tigers.

GWS Giants vs West Coast Eagles

This one is harder to pick, with neither team having stood out over the season, but both also refusing to go away. In a neutral venue, squiggle would pick the Eagles, but only just; in NSW, it gives it to the Giants.


I'm just going to stare at that for a while now. I basically made that Squiggle Doors function just so I would have an excuse to imagine Richmond Grand Finals in alternate universes. Now there might be one in this one! That's even better.

By the way, I would also like to take this moment to enjoy when hardly anybody has started hating Richmond crowds yet. I know that's coming, because Richmond crowds when the Tigers are on the verge of success are the ******* worst. Not for me. They're fine for me, because I'm wearing yellow and black. But for other teams' supporters. I didn't see anything bad at the Geelong game, but I've been to every final of the last five years, and they bring out plenty of mentally damaged individuals who have been psychologically broken by the last 35 years of heartache and now clearly believe they are the plaything of a malevolent deity who can only be banished by a spray of alcohol-fueled insults. If we make a Grand Final, it's going to be so ugly. I mean win or lose, either way, there is going to be some shit on display. So it's nice to get in before that.

Assuming that Adelaide plays Sydney next week...

Does the winner become unbackable to win the flag?
 

Dr Tigris

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Awesome!! Finally the squiggle sort of loves us.

But Adelaide and Sydney are the 2 to beat. And rightly so. They are clearly the best 2 teams. Everyone else is making up time ATM.

But what I saw Friday night makes me believe that there is something more possibly happening.

And GWS (underachieving and so out of form) versus WC (shouldn't even be there, but just won't give up). Most interesting game to me this weekend. Don't know who to back. And who is likely to win :huh:

Geelong has to do an almighty turn around against the form team in the comp. Could do it. But Friday they played 3 quarters, then just went to sleep.

I love the squiggle. And right now it shows an interesting couple of weeks coming. Most likely result for a fortnight is 2 unlikely teams playing off on one side, and the 2 most likely playing off.
 

Rotayjay

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2017 Finals Week 1​



a.k.a. "Richmond goes wheeee!"


Throughout the season, the squiggle refused to rate Richmond any higher than a somewhat-above-average team. Now there are only six teams left, the Tigers are rated 3rd, i.e. still just on the better side of average. But they made a big move after holding Geelong to only 40 points, essentially pulling level with Adelaide in terms of raw form.

That's still not enough for a flag, because squiggle respects the historical fact that attacking teams have outperformed defensive teams when it counts over the last two decades. So while the Tigers have a dream run to the Grand Final, avoiding both top teams and hosting an interstate opponent for a prelim, squiggle doubts they can contain the scoring power of Adelaide or Sydney if they get there.

Nevertheless, the Tigers are certainly close enough to give it a shake, which is just about the most exciting thing I've experienced in my entire football-following life. So that's something.

There's not a whole lot to say about Adelaide v GWS or Sydney v Essendon, both of which played out to expectation.

But Port v West Coast! Once again, the Power failed to knock off a well-rated opponent, although only just, in the cruelest possible way. Taking an 8 scoring shot advantage and turning it into 2 fewer goals and 10 more behinds is going to sink any team.

Despite all the evidence Port has offered to the contrary, there's still reason to believe they're a very good team, and if they can avoid self-immolating over the off-season, they could follow in the footsteps of Sydney 2015, who kicked themselves out of their first final against Fremantle (7.18 to 10.9), then rebounded the next year to win the minor premiership and contest the Grand Final. Port's stumbles in 2017 have been absurd, dramatic and memorable, so it's easy to forget they annihilated the bottom tier of the competition, beat most of the middle tier, and weren't too far off the rest, while recording wins over Sydney and West Coast.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are lurking just close enough to be dangerous. All year, they've been thereabouts, competitive in practically every game, including those against everyone they have to beat for the flag. They are rightly underdogs, but having landed on the soft side of the draw, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that the Eagles could defeat the Giants, who they only lost to by 8 points earlier this year, then Richmond, who they lost to by 11, and then take on Sydney or Adelaide, both of whom they've beaten.

An Eagles flag would be mind-boggling, given they were unlikely even to make finals a few rounds ago. In another year, I'd say it was fanciful, because normally we have at least one truly dominant team plus a tradition of rested Qualifying Final winners beating up Semi-Finalists. But this year, our top two in Adelaide and Sydney haven't created as much separation from the field, you only have to beat one of them (unless you're Geelong), and there's the unknown quantity of the pre-finals bye in play. So almost anything is within the realms of possibility.

On flagpole, it's bombs away and lights out!



Richmond squeak into 3rd even with the heavily defensive game plan that Flagpole abhors. And Geelong are still rated pretty well, even though in the real world everyone has concluded that they are the worst football team to ever play the game and who will win that Adelaide v Sydney prelim.

Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans

There's a long history, of course, of people overrating Elimination Final winners and underrating Qualifying Final losers. But it's still hard to see Sydney dropping this one: They're a premiership favourite who finished much lower on the ladder than their form suggested, while the Cats made top 4 on the back of a few close wins and didn't fire a shot against the Tigers.

GWS Giants vs West Coast Eagles

This one is harder to pick, with neither team having stood out over the season, but both also refusing to go away. In a neutral venue, squiggle would pick the Eagles, but only just; in NSW, it gives it to the Giants.


I'm just going to stare at that for a while now. I basically made that Squiggle Doors function just so I would have an excuse to imagine Richmond Grand Finals in alternate universes. Now there might be one in this one! That's even better.

By the way, I would also like to take this moment to enjoy when hardly anybody has started hating Richmond crowds yet. I know that's coming, because Richmond crowds when the Tigers are on the verge of success are the ******* worst. Not for me. They're fine for me, because I'm wearing yellow and black. But for other teams' supporters. I didn't see anything bad at the Geelong game, but I've been to every final of the last five years, and they bring out plenty of mentally damaged individuals who have been psychologically broken by the last 35 years of heartache and now clearly believe they are the plaything of a malevolent deity who can only be banished by a spray of alcohol-fueled insults. If we make a Grand Final, it's going to be so ugly. I mean win or lose, either way, there is going to be some shit on display. So it's nice to get in before that.
Another excellent post, FS! That was a magnificent defensive effort by the Tigers. Like we were all saying in the lead-up, if Richmond won it would be a huge upset but whoever wins has their first foot in the door of the GF.

It's fascinating how we have an elimination final winner - a team that finished 6th (Sydney) - who are rated as a better side than most of the top 4. They were bad for Rounds 1-6, but have since become the uber-consistent, tough Swans we know - the Swans who were widely expected to challenge in 2017.

In my view, the Bulldogs' win last year has gotten the monkey off of everyone's back about winning a flag from outside the top 4. It's no longer just 'one day a team will do it' (like we've all discussed in this thread over the years) because it happened in front of our eyes twelve short months ago. There is a contrary view that the 2016 Bulldogs were not a typical 7th-placed side as they won 15 games. But I still think 2016 proved that a side can realistically win four cutthroat finals (two interstate) to win the flag under the current finals system.

I can't see West Coast or Geelong getting up. If Geelong beat Sydney it would be a bigger upset than Richmond's QF victory. Geelong are being given Buckley's chance.
 

joelsyt

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I'm happy squiggle thinks we could play off in a grand final this year but I'm not sure what would be more heartbreaking, losing a preliminary or losing a grand final, because I think this season it'll be either Sydney or Adelaide that takes the flag home.
 

BTs Nana

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We only had the better of the goals + behinds stat.
I could be wrong, but I think that is kinda important.

But let's not let the scoreboard get in the way of your moral victory.
Yes m8 scoreboard is the most important thing.

You won the game.

But if we reroll that match 100 times how many do you win vS how many do we win?

I'm happy to lose that game and learn enough to win the prelim more comfortably.

How often do you think we will miss that badly?
 

Number37

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Yes m8 scoreboard is the most important thing.

You won the game.

But if we reroll that match 100 times how many do you win vS how many do we win?

I'm happy to lose that game and learn enough to win the prelim more comfortably.

How often do you think we will miss that badly?
We've beaten you 3 out of the last 4 times with relatively the same teams.
2 of those were smashings.

We beat you comfortably in 2012 on your home deck with similar stakes in play.
We beat you on your home deck last time.

We have no fear of you. We know we can beat you. We have nothing to prove.
 
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