Mega Thread Squiggle 2017

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Final Siren, Feb 15, 2017.

Put it out there
  1. WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

    WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot Norm Smith Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 12
    Posts:
    5,769
    Similarly, the Crows-Sydney game meant absolutely nothing in terms of the ladder. If Adelaide won that game then they still finish 1st and Sydney still finish 6th.

    You could argue that it gave Sydney confidence that they can beat Adelaide at AO, but I doubt, even if they lost, they would have feared that. Similarly, even though they lost, I think Adelaide would feel that it could beat Sydney in a final at AO.
     
    Dwhale44 and Dr Tigris like this.

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  2. WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

    WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot Norm Smith Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 12
    Posts:
    5,769
    Damien Barrett has absolutely no idea on the concept of sliding doors. Those articles aren't anything remotely like sliding doors moments.
     
  3. harrythetiger

    harrythetiger Premiership Player

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Straya
    Joined:
    Sep 15
    Posts:
    3,949
    Location:
    Kardinia Park
    He just makes up some controversial statement and molds them into 'if-then' statements. It's the peak of AFL media.
     
  4. iluvparis

    iluvparis Brownlow Medallist

    Carlton
    Other teams:
    Calgary Flames, Man Utd
    Joined:
    Apr 05
    Posts:
    20,272
    It was
     
  5. Prison Bars

    Prison Bars I'd make Wines from your tears!

    Port Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Apr 09
    Posts:
    11,450
    Location:
    Port Adelaide Zone
    No, no it isn't.
     
  6. harrythetiger

    harrythetiger Premiership Player

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Straya
    Joined:
    Sep 15
    Posts:
    3,949
    Location:
    Kardinia Park
    Of course it's not awesome if you only kick 7 goals
     
    _DBF_ likes this.
  7. deflated

    deflated Team Captain

    Sydney
    Other teams:
    Les Expos
    Joined:
    Jul 04
    Posts:
    363
    Location:
    Nowhere near home
    As the post you quoted was about how the Swans play against Adelaide rather than GF's it doesn't seem weird at all. Was there any reason you wanted to remove all context beyond taking a random shot at the Swans?
     
  8. Iron

    Iron Norm Smith Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    May 14
    Posts:
    5,663
    I know Victorians like to write off those grand finals but this is a whole new take on that day!
     
    Jarman3 and WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot like this.
  9. Richo83

    Richo83 Brownlow Medallist

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 05
    Posts:
    18,442
    Location:
    Melbourne
    For some reason I mixed up who did the bad kicking that day. Still, point stands, in grand finals anything can happen, even if the pain of getting that close is high.
     
    Iron likes this.
  10. Gavin Excell

    Gavin Excell Brownlow Medallist

    Geelong
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Apr 07
    Posts:
    18,803
    Location:
    Bentleigh
    I agree. Id much prefer a preliminary final lost than a GF
     
  11. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 09
    Posts:
    2,990
    I have dozens of venue-based algorithms, because, intuitively, venue seems both important and a bit more complex than handing 12 points to home teams vs interstate opponents. So I've tried it a bunch of different ways. But they don't perform reliably enough: They have great years followed by terrible years.

    So either I haven't cracked it, or venue-based advantage tends to be fleeting, not lasting more than a few years.

    Sample size is definitely an issue. Many times teams play at a particular ground only once every year or two, so by the time you collect half a dozen data points, most of the players from one game weren't in another. Which feels dodgy.

    2017 has been good for venue-based algorithms, though, who currently fill out 8 of the top 12 spots on my leaderboard. Or more accurately, it was a bad year for assuming serious home ground advantage in interstate games only, because those did worse than just about everything, including ignoring home ground advantage altogether.

    Right now it's:
    Squiggle 1.0: 124 tips
    Squiggle 2.0: 130
    Squiggle 1.0 but ignoring home ground advantage: 131
    Squiggle 2.0 but ignoring home ground advantage: 132
    Tipping bookies' favourite every game: 134
    Best venue-based algorithm: 136
     

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  12. Dr Tigris

    Dr Tigris Premiership Player

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 09
    Posts:
    3,394
    Location:
    Canberra
    So you are saying tip the bookies favourite! Got to remember that.
     
    _DBF_ likes this.
  13. Jarman3

    Jarman3 Club Legend

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 13
    Posts:
    2,002
    So does this mean that the squiggle will sh*t itself if Carlton ever plays Adelaide at Adelaide Oval? Possibility of some kind of divide by zero error or something? :p
     
  14. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 09
    Posts:
    2,990
    Yep! It's very hard to beat the market:

    [​IMG]

    Source: http://figuringfooty.com/2016/03/13/2015-tipping-performances-of-fans-experts-and-analysts/

    And those are only bookies' opening odds. They're more accurate by close, at least while I've been watching.

    Even more sobering, the bookies perform like this every year, while I bet most of those dots that beat them in 2015 didn't do so the year before or afterward.
     
  15. Yippy Yi Yeo

    Yippy Yi Yeo Club Legend

    West Coast
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Jul 15
    Posts:
    1,579
    Location:
    Perth
    What does it mean by bookie opening?
     
  16. richoatthedisco

    richoatthedisco Brownlow Medallist

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Jun 07
    Posts:
    18,514
    Location:
    Paradise
    My old man won his work footy tipping comp one year just by picking every favourite.
     
  17. sataris

    sataris Grand Poobah

    Sydney
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Feb 15
    Posts:
    3,541
    Location:
    Singapore
    I think he means the odds the bookies initialy open/offer

    it fluctuates with the money that's being laid on.
     
  18. Yippy Yi Yeo

    Yippy Yi Yeo Club Legend

    West Coast
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Jul 15
    Posts:
    1,579
    Location:
    Perth
    Thought so, might have to employ that as a tactic next year considering I'm only on 126 with 5 games to go :drunk:
     
  19. Rorys458

    Rorys458 Premium Platinum

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Adelaide Utd,Liverpool, WWT Eagles.
    Joined:
    Apr 01
    Posts:
    24,980
    Location:
    Adelaide Oval / Anfield
    What horseshit. We rarely win the free count so twice in a row against the same team very unlikely
     
  20. Dwhale44

    Dwhale44 Team Captain

    Sydney
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Feb 13
    Posts:
    414
    I know we still have Geelong to get past this weekend but I cannot wait to watch my team try!
     
  21. nobbyiscool

    nobbyiscool Norm Smith Medallist

    West Coast
    Other teams:
    Raiders/TasTigers/MV/Iggles
    Joined:
    Aug 06
    Posts:
    9,519
    Location:
    heaven on earth! (Melbourne)
    Nah. You're wrong.

    You spend a shit ton of money to get in - that's if you can get a seat - and it ends up being among the most disappointing things you'll ever experience.

    For my first GF (2015) I think I spent about $350 to watch the game alone, cos I didn't know any other AFL members with the right club support, and to watch it effectively from the ******* roof of the Southern Stand, and I could probably almost count on one hand the number of times I've thought about that day. And on the few occasions I have thought about it? All I remember is that Luke Hodge goal from the 3rd row of the Olympic stand and knowing at that moment - I think early in the 2nd quarter - that we were ******.

    Still, if we made the GF again this year, and if I could get a seat, I'd do it again in a heartbeat. In that respect it's just as well we're on Richmond's half of the draw. I don't think the AFL members section would get far down the order of priority if the Tigers were in the big one!
     
    SJ likes this.
  22. gangsta deluxe

    gangsta deluxe Norm Smith Medallist

    Western Bulldogs
    Other teams:
    Rajasthan Royals!!!
    Joined:
    Nov 05
    Posts:
    6,506
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Wondering if you know: how does that accomodate instances where the odds are even?

    EDIT: read the article. It tips home team
     
  23. beert

    beert Team Captain

    Sydney
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Apr 08
    Posts:
    308
    Location:
    Sydney
    Not exactly surprising that when hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake, businesses get very good at tipping.

    It would be fascinating to know how they do it though.
     
    iluvparis likes this.
  24. kiwicrow

    kiwicrow Senior List

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Chelsea
    Joined:
    Jun 13
    Posts:
    296
    It's the trough of AFL media.
     
    harrythetiger likes this.
  25. Rise_up_Stiffy

    Rise_up_Stiffy Premiership Player

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Sep 07
    Posts:
    3,293
    Location:
    Adelaide
    As a Crows supporter I'd prefer to lose a GF. Too many lost prelims in recent years.