Similarly, the Crows-Sydney game meant absolutely nothing in terms of the ladder. If Adelaide won that game then they still finish 1st and Sydney still finish 6th.

You could argue that it gave Sydney confidence that they can beat Adelaide at AO, but I doubt, even if they lost, they would have feared that. Similarly, even though they lost, I think Adelaide would feel that it could beat Sydney in a final at AO.

 

Damien Barrett has absolutely no idea on the concept of sliding doors. Those articles aren't anything remotely like sliding doors moments.

 

He just makes up some controversial statement and molds them into 'if-then' statements. It's the peak of AFL media.

 

It was

 

No, no it isn't.

 

Of course it's not awesome if you only kick 7 goals

 

As the post you quoted was about how the Swans play against Adelaide rather than GF's it doesn't seem weird at all. Was there any reason you wanted to remove all context beyond taking a random shot at the Swans?

 

I know Victorians like to write off those grand finals but this is a whole new take on that day!

 

For some reason I mixed up who did the bad kicking that day. Still, point stands, in grand finals anything can happen, even if the pain of getting that close is high.

 

I agree. Id much prefer a preliminary final lost than a GF

 

I have dozens of venue-based algorithms, because, intuitively, venue seems both important and a bit more complex than handing 12 points to home teams vs interstate opponents. So I've tried it a bunch of different ways. But they don't perform reliably enough: They have great years followed by terrible years.

So either I haven't cracked it, or venue-based advantage tends to be fleeting, not lasting more than a few years.

Sample size is definitely an issue. Many times teams play at a particular ground only once every year or two, so by the time you collect half a dozen data points, most of the players from one game weren't in another. Which feels dodgy.

2017 has been good for venue-based algorithms, though, who currently fill out 8 of the top 12 spots on my leaderboard. Or more accurately, it was a bad year for assuming serious home ground advantage in interstate games only, because those did worse than just about everything, including ignoring home ground advantage altogether.

Right now it's:
Squiggle 1.0: 124 tips
Squiggle 2.0: 130
Squiggle 1.0 but ignoring home ground advantage: 131
Squiggle 2.0 but ignoring home ground advantage: 132
Tipping bookies' favourite every game: 134
Best venue-based algorithm: 136

 

So you are saying tip the bookies favourite! Got to remember that.

 

So does this mean that the squiggle will sh*t itself if Carlton ever plays Adelaide at Adelaide Oval? Possibility of some kind of divide by zero error or something?

 

Yep! It's very hard to beat the market:



Source: http://figuringfooty.com/2016/03/13/2015-tipping-performances-of-fans-experts-and-analysts/

And those are only bookies' opening odds. They're more accurate by close, at least while I've been watching.

Even more sobering, the bookies perform like this every year, while I bet most of those dots that beat them in 2015 didn't do so the year before or afterward.

 

What does it mean by bookie opening?

 

My old man won his work footy tipping comp one year just by picking every favourite.

 

I think he means the odds the bookies initialy open/offer

it fluctuates with the money that's being laid on.

 

Thought so, might have to employ that as a tactic next year considering I'm only on 126 with 5 games to go

 

What horseshit. We rarely win the free count so twice in a row against the same team very unlikely

 

I know we still have Geelong to get past this weekend but I cannot wait to watch my team try!

 

Nah. You're wrong.

You spend a shit ton of money to get in - that's if you can get a seat - and it ends up being among the most disappointing things you'll ever experience.

For my first GF (2015) I think I spent about $350 to watch the game alone, cos I didn't know any other AFL members with the right club support, and to watch it effectively from the ******* roof of the Southern Stand, and I could probably almost count on one hand the number of times I've thought about that day. And on the few occasions I have thought about it? All I remember is that Luke Hodge goal from the 3rd row of the Olympic stand and knowing at that moment - I think early in the 2nd quarter - that we were ******.

Still, if we made the GF again this year, and if I could get a seat, I'd do it again in a heartbeat. In that respect it's just as well we're on Richmond's half of the draw. I don't think the AFL members section would get far down the order of priority if the Tigers were in the big one!

 

Wondering if you know: how does that accomodate instances where the odds are even?

EDIT: read the article. It tips home team

 

Not exactly surprising that when hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake, businesses get very good at tipping.

It would be fascinating to know how they do it though.

 

It's the trough of AFL media.

 

As a Crows supporter I'd prefer to lose a GF. Too many lost prelims in recent years.