Mega Thread Squiggle 2017

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Final Siren, Feb 15, 2017.

Put it out there
  1. BTs Nana

    BTs Nana Suspended

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    Never lost a granny before in any comp, male or female. Never will.
     
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  2. Jarman3

    Jarman3 Club Legend

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    Yeah, I'd really like to spice things up by losing a different kind of final for a change :p
     
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  3. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

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    It's just the wisdom of crowds at work.

    You have tens of thousands of people who each know a bit about football. Bookmakers provide a market so that people who know more about who's likely to win can make money: if you're confident that the odds are wrong, you can make a bet. The price (odds) moves automatically in response to how people are betting, settling at a point that accurately summarizes what the entire market thinks.

    Bookies don't need any special knowledge or technique; they just need to be able to act like any market and alter their price in response to supply and demand. (Well, they do need enough knowledge to be able to post sensible odds at the absolute beginning. And it helps to be able to attract bad punters. But otherwise it's just maths.)

    Given the money involved, there's also a good incentive for people who are genuinely good at tipping to enter the market, and stay in. Whereas people who are misguided about their ability to tip lose money and are forced out, or at least strongly incentivized to bet less. So the market gets smarter. If it ever starts to get stupid, the incentive grows for smarter/better informed people to enter the market and make a killing, which steers the price back in the right direction again.

    So it's hard to beat the bookies because their prices are the result of large, efficient market in football knowledge.
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2017
  4. WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

    WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot Norm Smith Medallist

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    If you could win, but have several key players get 1 week injuries that would be great! ;)
     
  5. Gavin Excell

    Gavin Excell Brownlow Medallist

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    The brash confidence of a young club
     
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  6. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

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    Hmm, that all makes perfect logical sense, but I still reckon I'd love it.

    I just can't understand how it can be more disappointing to lose a Grand Final than suffer through those years where your team is a complete irrelevancy. I mean, I might be about to find out. But I don't see how it can be worse than, for example, missing finals for 8 years straight then finishing 9th and building up the hype in the off-season that this could be the year we get good again and recruiting Ben Cousins and then we play Carlton in Round 1 and lose by 83 points while Cousins tears his hamstring. So you walk away knowing that more years of sucking lie ahead.

    There's been so much of that with Richmond, just being terrible for year after year, hoping each year we'll get better, and it never happening. Between 1982 and 2013, when we missed finals for 28 years out of 30, that was some shit.

    I dunno, maybe you're right, but I feel like losing a Grand Final would be so much better than that, because at least we're finally doing something.
     
  7. SJ

    SJ Moderator

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    That approach will tend to only work in small work places! Although the bookies will always perform well, and consistently, in a large enough sample size they are unlikely to beat *every* individual tipster (the grey dots to the right of the red in the chart above).
     
  8. Valentino Dmitri

    Valentino Dmitri Premiership Player

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    Inaccurate too - Geelong beat Adelaide in the 2006 pre season GF.
     
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  9. harrythetiger

    harrythetiger Premiership Player

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    Maybe losing a Grand Final alone would be worse than losing a prelim. But overall, wouldn't winning a prelim at least bring that back a bit in net happiness? I'd like to know since as a Richmond supporter I'm constantly gambling with my happiness.
     
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  10. Prison Bars

    Prison Bars I'd make Wines from your tears!

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    There was a sweet spot in the late 90's /early 00's where the bookies were taking sports bets, but didn't have the data they now have. A soccer fan could make a tidy penny as the odds were all over the place as they only knew about horses and hadn't got their fix in. The internet killed it.
     
  11. richoatthedisco

    richoatthedisco Brownlow Medallist

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    Yeah, was only about 20 people I think.
     

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  12. AcuteWhistle

    AcuteWhistle All Australian

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    Simple math basically.

    If you look at it in terms of say a casino's roulette wheel, the odds they offer on each outcome provides a built in edge which guarantees the casino wins long term no matter what. All a bookmaker has to do is balance their books to also guarantee that same edge. & while it's wasn't always that easy for the old on course bookmaker at the track & plenty went broke trying, these days your corporate bookmakers simply ban or limit those punters that cost them money which helps make their job that much easier & of course that much harder for those who are smart enough to consistently tip well or spot incorrect odds as Final Siren talked about above.
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2017
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  13. treefingers

    treefingers the mighty hawks

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    If Richmond lose the GF this year, you'll still be kicking yourself about the missed opportunity 10 years later. Prelims, not so much.
     
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  14. Dr Tigris

    Dr Tigris Premiership Player

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    I generally make about top 10% in the AFL picking comp. But I like easy to see ways of helping my choices. Bookies might be a good way to go.

    Cheers
     
  15. Spanish_Fly

    Spanish_Fly Club Legend

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    I agree its amazing how often the line is just about spot on. You can actually use this to your advatnage by backing margins about the line on certain games, i.e. if line is right in the middle of a margin you just take that margin bet. Do this quite often and get very good results.
     
  16. DynaBass

    DynaBass Senior List

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    Says the supporter who's team has been to a shed load of GFs in the last decade.

    I think all Adelaide and Richmond supports will be ecstatic to make a Grand Final after a generation away, win lose or draw
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2017
  17. lamby

    lamby Premium Gold

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    You have not spent much time in the Crows Board if you think that! 'One kick from a GF'
     
  18. Rotayjay

    Rotayjay Norm Smith Medallist

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    What a season 2017 is.
     
  19. Juke

    Juke Club Legend

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    Looking at the Flagpole at the moment: why is Geelong ranked so much higher than Richmond despite Richmond being ranked ahead of them in both offence and defence?
     
  20. Andonis1997

    Andonis1997 Brownlow Medallist

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    Logic.
     
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  21. Lsta062

    Lsta062 Norm Smith Medallist

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    Maybe it is because the flagpole gives more importance to offence than what squiggle does, and Geelong have scored more than us this season.
     
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  22. Rorys458

    Rorys458 Premium Platinum

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    We are just as old as mean to be ;)
     
  23. King Brown

    King Brown Club Legend

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    Interesting. Tell me more on your blog.
     
  24. legend166

    legend166 Premium Platinum

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    I blame the squiggle for this.

    It clearly doesn't take into our consideration four massively choking in finals when we're red hot favourites.
     
  25. Seeds

    Seeds Brownlow Medallist

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    Making it to a gf and losing is far far better then not making it at all. Big prelim win and the experienxe of gf week is a real buzz.
     
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