Mega Thread Squiggle 2017

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Final Siren, Feb 15, 2017.

Put it out there
  1. WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

    WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot Norm Smith Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 12
    Posts:
    5,769
    Yep, it does. The Squiggle underestimated the score for Adelaide by about 8 goals! :D
     
    GreyCrow likes this.

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  2. sobrave

    sobrave Premiership Player

    Port Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 15
    Posts:
    4,117
    Location:
    Clare, SA
    Adelaide will have dropped from 1nd down to 15rd due to some favourable umpiring and the position of Saturn's moons this year
     
    Andonis1997, Jack McKraken and iBeng like this.
  3. WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

    WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot Norm Smith Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 12
    Posts:
    5,769
    Unfortunately, even after adjusting for umpiring bias and the home crowd "boo" factor, none of the 4 teams that played on the weekend were able to overtake Hawthorn at the top of the power rankings. However Brisbane did move into second place, due to Adelaide winning by less than the predicted margin.

    Despite my predictions being largely the opposite of actual results, the kitty is up to 302,296,438 beans, a return of 1,356% this season.
     
    TheFVK, asanque, beert and 5 others like this.
  4. evo

    evo Premium Platinum

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 03
    Posts:
    25,734
    Location:
    Dancing down Swan St
    Does Squiggle still rate North as better chance of winning the flag than us? Just kidding man; love your work.

    Hanging out for this weeks report.
     
  5. Richo83

    Richo83 Brownlow Medallist

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 05
    Posts:
    18,450
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Richmond's like "notice me senpai".
     
  6. iluvparis

    iluvparis Brownlow Medallist

    Carlton
    Other teams:
    Calgary Flames, Man Utd
    Joined:
    Apr 05
    Posts:
    20,282
    Think it would expect Adelaide to beat either comfortably this week.
     
    Le Grille and evo like this.
  7. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 09
    Posts:
    2,990
    2017 Preliminary Finals & Grand Final Preview
    Squiggle trades in cold, hard data, so there will be no place in this post for barracking or bandwagoning. Sure, outside of this thread, I may be clicking LIKE hard and often on every pro-Richmond post I see. Sure, this is the first time Richmond have made the Grand Final since I was 9 years old, and my parents took me to the Royal Melbourne Show on Grand Final Day because it was less crowded. "You can watch the next one, Max," they told me, and you know what? I bloody well will. I have a ticket and I am going. Sure, there were times when it felt like this would never happen in my lifetime. But you won't catch me mentioning any of that here.

    [​IMG]

    Both favourites won their prelims comfortably. But Adelaide were more impressive in defeating the Cats 136-75, while in PF2, or as squiggle knows it, "Who Wants To Be Slaughtered By Adelaide," the Tigers ended the Giants 103-67.

    [​IMG]

    That result leaves the Crows approaching somewhere near the gravitational centre of the squiggle's premiership cups, which means their 2017 results are similar to those of many premiership teams from the last two decades. They're still somewhat modestly rated for a premier, but they're not far off it.

    The Tigers, on the other hand, are a more niche model, belonging to a distinct class of teams with strong defences but mediocre attacks. That does include a few premiers, most notably the reigning premier (for a few more days, at least) in the Western Bulldogs, but many more who fell short, including a swag of Ross Lyon-coached teams.

    [​IMG]

    Adelaide's year bears a striking similarity to 2016, when the Crows also opened with a series of blisteringly high-scoring games, then began to tighten up defensively as well:

    [​IMG]

    The Crows were squiggle darlings for most of last year before wobbling late and falling to the Swans in a semi-final that psychologically scarred Adelaide-based squiggle fans for all time. They still don't look enormously different to that team, but they're better balanced and the opposition standing in their path to a flag has been weaker, with GWS in particular less dangerous than the 2016 version.

    The 2016 semi-final loss is interesting in light of this year's Grand Final, because the 2016 Swans and 2017 Tigers look to have a bit in common, with both enjoying low-scoring slugfests. So one might wonder whether the Crows have a weakness in that area that the Tigers are designed to exploit. But by moving into the more balanced area of the chart, Adelaide are showing they're more well-rounded and less brittle, better able to deal with a variety of game plans.

    Fun Fact: Both Port Adelaide and Essendon remain eligible for a classical 4-Strike, by losing an Elimination Final to a team that lost a Semi-Final to a team that lost a Preliminary Final to a team that loses a Grand Final.

    [​IMG]

    Squiggle is unique in placing a particular emphasis on attack-defence balance. Computer models commonly produce a single "strength" number and tip whoever's strongest. Squiggle does this for all games except the Grand Final, where it leans heavily toward the team with the stronger attack, due to the over-representation of that trait in past premiers.

    Without this, Squiggle would still tip Adelaide, as the overall better team, but far less emphatically.

    [​IMG]

    Not only is Adelade the better-rated team, and not only do they have the better attack, but they're also more balanced. Most Grand Final upsets have happened to unbalanced teams, such as Sydney 2016 (defensive specialist) and Hawthorn 2012 (attack specialist), and there are quite a few near-misses as well, like a well-balanced Port Adelaide coming within 3 points of attack-first Hawthorn in a 2014 prelim, and Geelong doing almost the same thing against the Hawks a year earlier. So while it's been more rewarding to be a team that engages in high-scoring games rather than low-scoring ones, it's also been preferable not to be too far one way or the other.

    There are exceptions: The Bulldogs should have lost to GWS in last year's prelim, according to this theory, and Geelong shouldn't have lost to anyone in 2008. But in general, it's ideal to be the best overall, the best attack, and the most balanced - and compared to Richmond, Adelaide are all three.

    As such, Squiggle is very heavily into Adelaide, tipping the Crows by 41 points.

    But that doesn't mean the Tigers have no hope. While most of the Squiggle stable of algorithms are tipping Adelaide, there's a healthy contingent of counter-tips from venue-based models, many of which take special note of Richmond's amazing record at the MCG this year. That stable contains 202 algorithms at last count, and of the 36 that favour the Tigers, all of them pay special attention to the venue, either in the form of general interstate home ground advantage or results at the 'G in particular.

    That's because Richmond haven't had a bad match at the MCG since Round 8, when they lost after the siren to Fremantle. There were really only two Tiger embarrassments this year: one at the hands of the Crows at Adelaide Oval and another courtesy of the Saints at Docklands. But at the 'G, Richmond have gotten better almost with each passing week. Their record since the bye looks like this:
    • defeated by Sydney by 9
    • def Carlton by 26
    • def GWS by 19
    • def Hawthorn by 29
    • def St Kilda by 41
    • def Geelong by 51
    • def GWS by 36
    That compares favorably to the Tigers' record away from the MCG, which is still good but shakier, including the aforementioned St Kilda humiliation as well as a loss to at Kardinia to Geelong.

    The Crows' record at the MCG over the same period is:
    • def Carlton by 12
    • drew with Collingwood
    Their only other game there this year was a 24-point defeat of the Hawks in Round 2. So if you believe that the venue makes a difference, there's plenty of reason to think it will strongly favour the Tigers. And it's been a good year for venue algorithms: they've actually been the most accurate of the stable this year, both in terms of tips and average margin predictions. They don't have the same long-term record, but they have had the better read in 2017.

    It's also worth mentioning that Squiggle has underrated Richmond all year, as it did with the Bulldogs last year. When a team improves quickly over a short period, as the Tigers have in rising from a 13th-placed finish last year, Squiggle takes time to be convinced they're the real deal, since that kind of radical change is unusual, and more commonly signals a team that's temporarily overperforming and will soon revert to their natural level. If the Tigers really have become a lot better at football in a short period, they may still be underrated.

    In terms of similar Grand Finals, 2017 bears the most resemblance to 2006, when West Coast (a well-balanced and modestly rated team) defeated Sydney (a defensive specialist) by 1 point:

    [​IMG]

    That was, of course, one of the great all-time cracking Grand Finals, so we'd be blessed to get anything like a repeat.

    In summary: Adelaide are deserved favourites, and have the ability to kick away and win by a significant margin. But any footy follower knows anything can happen in football, and there's room between a 15% chance and a 0% chance to drive a premiership cup through. If the Crows don't break free from the Tiger stranglehold and get locked down into a scrappy, high-pressure series of ground contests; if they kick inaccurately; if the venue plays a role; then it will be a Richmond premiership.

    P.S. I just wanted to finish the post with the phrase "Richmond premiership."
     
  8. Crankyhawk

    Crankyhawk Norm Smith Medallist

    Hawthorn
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Sep 07
    Posts:
    9,908
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Great work final siren I'm impressed you haven't turned into nervous goo...
     
  9. evo

    evo Premium Platinum

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 03
    Posts:
    25,734
    Location:
    Dancing down Swan St
    Nice. Personally I'm praying for rain; preferably a deluge that would make Noah blush.
     
    Final Siren likes this.
  10. rmcq

    rmcq Debutant

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Sep 17
    Posts:
    76
    This is the first year I’ve taken an interest in the Elo ratings systems.

    Seems to me that they have all under-rated Richmond this year as they cannot take into account dramatic form shifts in the off-season.

    Richmond’s 2016 can now clearly be seen as a form slump combined with mini-rebuild (especially the last part of the season where they played many players that were not fit to play AFL football).

    So a depressed 2016 rating plus a significant restructure in the off-season significantly depresses Richmond’s rating at the start of the season.
     
    richoatthedisco likes this.
  11. WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

    WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot Norm Smith Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 12
    Posts:
    5,769
    Does the Squiggle have one last twist of the blade in store for the Crows?
     
    Final Siren likes this.

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  12. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 09
    Posts:
    2,990
    Yes, if you exclude 2016, Richmond's trajectory under Hardwick looks almost linear.

    Deciding how much store to place in this week's results vs last week's vs last year's is a key to any footy tipping model. Generally they tip better if they're a bit more conservative than a human punter... so it's not that they can't handle sudden form shifts but rather they deliberately treat them cautiously, because they're usually temporary.

    It's not like Richmond bounced back from an injury-ravaged year, or some external factor that would explain why 2016 was an outlier.

    If I exclude 2016 from my data, Adelaide are still favourite, but things are closer.
     
  13. rmcq

    rmcq Debutant

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Sep 17
    Posts:
    76
    I hear so much talk from the media about our last few games of 2016 where we were even playing Chol, as if they were at all representative of our true ability.

    Interesting that the trend is linear, because that’s how it’s “felt” this year.

    If only there was a way of incorporating “culture shift”!
     
    Dr Tigris likes this.
  14. Bonkers000

    Bonkers000 Club Legend

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Mar 15
    Posts:
    1,787
    Is there actually any data that suggests a team that regularly plays at the 'G', or a team that typically does well there, has a better chance of winning on grand final day?

    It just feels like the better team combined with the team that wants it more wins more often than not.
     
    iluvparis likes this.
  15. GreyCrow

    GreyCrow Brownlow Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Sturt, Redskins , White Sox
    Joined:
    Mar 16
    Posts:
    24,098
    Location:
    Down South Corvus Tristis
    So are Crows fans ;)
     
    Jinglebells32 and AusTerran like this.
  16. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 09
    Posts:
    2,990
    There's not good evidence for an MCG-based GF home advantage, no. Of course, there's so little data on Grand Finals (only one a year!*), it's hard to conclude anything. But non-Vic teams have done so well in Grand Finals over the last two decades that Squiggle and several other models ignore home ground advantage for them.

    Most of this evidence comes from the first decade, though: 1998-2007, when non-Victorian teams regularly beat up on Victorian ones. More recently, Victorian teams have overperformed: the Bulldogs defeating Sydney in 2016 (upset), Hawthorn smashing West Coast in 2015 (bigger win than expected), Hawthorn thumping Sydney in 2014 (upset smashing), and Hawthorn over Fremantle in 2013 (about what was expected, but still, Vic-defeats-non-Vic). The sole recent example of the non-Vic side overperforming is Sydney beating the Hawks in 2012; there weren't any non-Vic sides in Grand Finals from 2008-2011.

    So it's all arguable, and you can always think of reasons for exceptions - e.g. the Bulldogs aren't an MCG tenant, so we shouldn't count 2016.

    I do agree that "the team that wants it more" often seems to win. But that can't be quantified, of course, and may be circular reasoning... teams that are winning probably always look like they want it more. Especially in Grand Finals! Hard to think of a lazy winner there.

    * 1 GF per year except in 2010, when apparently two teams can be exactly matched one week and 10 goals apart the next.
     
    Redfox12, Rotayjay, SJ and 1 other person like this.
  17. gothecrows

    gothecrows All Australian

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Adelaide
    Joined:
    Jun 05
    Posts:
    695
    Location:
    Adelaide
    Have you seen the crows record in the wet this year? ;)
     
    Young Gun #6 likes this.
  18. evo

    evo Premium Platinum

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 03
    Posts:
    25,734
    Location:
    Dancing down Swan St
    I still reckon it's the one area we might have the edge. Anything that brings the ball to ground in our foward line has to help.

    Other than that I think you have the wood on us in all areas.

    We probably need Squiggle to settle this..@Final Siren. Who's better in the wet ?
     
  19. BTs Nana

    BTs Nana Suspended

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 17
    Posts:
    598
    You can do all your fancy numbers hocus pocus but all I'm seeing there is that Adelaide haven't lost at the MCG this year and Richmond have.

    Stick that in your stats book and smoke it.
     
  20. evo

    evo Premium Platinum

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 03
    Posts:
    25,734
    Location:
    Dancing down Swan St
    small sample size :p
     
    _DBF_ likes this.
  21. Richo83

    Richo83 Brownlow Medallist

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 05
    Posts:
    18,450
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Cher's I believe in a thing called love but every time she sings the word love she instead sings The Richmond Football Club.
     
  22. RedmanWasHere

    RedmanWasHere Brownlow Medallist

    Essendon
    Other teams:
    The Exers.
    Joined:
    Aug 10
    Posts:
    12,560
    Location:
    Information Superhighway

    Are you getting Cher and The Darkness mixed up?
     
    Redfox12, TheFVK, Andonis1997 and 7 others like this.
  23. richoatthedisco

    richoatthedisco Brownlow Medallist

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Jun 07
    Posts:
    18,528
    Location:
    Paradise
    Final Siren are you saying squiggle is not factoring this as a home game for Richmond? What if it did?
     
  24. harrythetiger

    harrythetiger Premiership Player

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Straya
    Joined:
    Sep 15
    Posts:
    3,958
    Location:
    Kardinia Park
    I’d really rather not lose a GF by a point.
     
    Aramis, old55 and Final Siren like this.
  25. lamby

    lamby Premium Gold

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Fulham
    Joined:
    Apr 08
    Posts:
    208
    Location:
    Melbourne
    No, you don't. The Crows have had their biggest wins in the rain!