Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

Hobbes · Apr 24, 2017

The Dice Man said:
What the hell are Brisbane doing all the way over there?

Also is Geelong's 2011 cup the very best end of year squiggle achievement?

How do you determine best? Attack? Attack+Defence?

A few extreme ratings

D64 A95 Geelong 1989
D176 A89 Essendon 1900
D68 A88 Hawthorn 1989
D78 A86 Hawthorn 1988
D73 A86 Geelong 2011
D380 A64 Fitzroy 1899

Del165198 · Apr 24, 2017

That fitzroy 1899 side would have gone undefeated thia year

Final Siren · Apr 24, 2017

Hobbes said:
I notice that the numbers are all much higher. I take it that the flagpole mostly goes up during the year, so current flagpole ratings can't really be compared with end-of-season ratings.

Right. Average flagpole score is a lot higher at the end of a season than the beginning.

Flagpole has a good record at two things:

(1) Tipping the GF correctly

(2) Ranking the eventual premier highly throughout the season

It becomes increasingly sensitive to form later in the season, so at the start of the year, teams tend to be fairly close to each other, then some accelerate away.

Final Siren · Apr 24, 2017

Dirty Bird said:
Just trying to replay the 2000 season in sliding doors for a specific result (Essendon unbeaten only loss gf)

But this one I didn't mind

Essendon went 22-0
Lost the qualifying final to Geelong by a goal
Rebounded to win the semi vs Brisbane by 3 goals
Got through Carlton in the preliminary by 7 goals
Then got their revenge vs Geelong winning 251-44

If you can bring it up final siren
Sliding door 3,904,337,507 with 5% luck

I'm not sure how you'd get a a scoreline like that... shouldn't be possible without dragging teams into new positions. If you figure out how to reproduce that, please lemme know.

This is the alt-reality number you mention, but Essendon go through the year undefeated:

http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=3904337507&luck=5&year=2000

It's probably impossible to find a simulation where Essendon win every game except the GF with only 5% luck, as there's just too large a gap between them and everyone else. They almost always win the flag even with 20% luck or more.

Final Siren · Apr 24, 2017

sobrave said:
That fitzroy 1899 side would have gone undefeated thia year

Yes, early year squiggles are presented as curiosities more than anything else. Squiggle is calibrated for modern scorelines.

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot · Apr 24, 2017

SgtSchulz said:
I really hope for a Port v Crows prelim at Adelaide Oval.

Wouldn't have any fingernails left at the end of the game but it would be an epic. Might have people climbing over the Fig Trees.

Be careful what you wish for - 2005 semi-final.

SgtSchulz · Apr 24, 2017

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot said:
Be careful what you wish for - 2005 semi-final.

I'd rather have another go then never.

Matele · Apr 24, 2017

sobrave said:
That fitzroy 1899 side would have gone undefeated thia year

The sorta side Ross Lyon has wet dreams about.

gothecrows · Apr 24, 2017

Final Siren said:
I'm not sure how you'd get a a scoreline like that... shouldn't be possible without dragging teams into new positions. If you figure out how to reproduce that, please lemme know.

This is the alt-reality number you mention, but Essendon go through the year undefeated:

http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=3904337507&luck=5&year=2000

It's probably impossible to find a simulation where Essendon win every game except the GF with only 5% luck, as there's just too large a gap between them and everyone else. They almost always win the flag even with 20% luck or more.

If you just keep hitting "Open new door", the results change, giving you a different alternate reality, but the URL will stay the same.
Incidentally, if you plug the reality number into the URL, you'll get a different result again... weird.

e.g.

Edit - actually, it'll change if you just refresh the page too, so it seems like the reality number isn't actually important...

Final Siren · Apr 25, 2017

gothecrows said:
If you just keep hitting "Open new door", the results change, giving you a different alternate reality, but the URL will stay the same.
Incidentally, if you plug the reality number into the URL, you'll get a different result again... weird.

e.g.

Edit - actually, it'll change if you just refresh the page too, so it seems like the reality number isn't actually important...

Aha, thanks, that's fixed now. I switched out the random number generator a while back and didn't notice that screwed up the saving of alt-realities.

Pessimistic · Apr 25, 2017

The Dice Man said:
What the hell are Brisbane doing all the way over there?

Also is Geelong's 2011 cup the very best end of year squiggle achievement?

And can fagan bring about a 1999 type movement by Brisbane. Lethal a first year
Biggest upward squiggle movement in one year if day

sonnywalters · Apr 25, 2017

GWS almost have their hand on the cup.
They can afford to rest Deledio until the business end of the season.
Talk about luxury

Power Raid · Apr 25, 2017

AFL already engraving the 2017 cup for the giants

GreyCrow · Apr 25, 2017

Power Raid said:
AFL already engraving the 2017 cup for the giants

I agree they are the front runners

I like Adelaide ( of course) but until they show they can stand the heat of finals then there is no great excitement.

Power Raid · Apr 25, 2017

GreyCrow said:
I agree they are the front runners

I like Adelaide ( of course) but until they show they can stand the heat of finals then there is no great excitement.

I'll be rooting for the crows in the GF.....it's easy to like the crows, with their brand of footy

Crankyhawk · Apr 25, 2017

Season predictor has 6 sides on 9 wins (10th to 15th).
But I like how the finals shape up - 2 point win to crows over GWS, and a showdown QF.

Dirty Bird · Apr 26, 2017

Final Siren said:
I'm not sure how you'd get a a scoreline like that... shouldn't be possible without dragging teams into new positions. If you figure out how to reproduce that, please lemme know.

This is the alt-reality number you mention, but Essendon go through the year undefeated:

http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=3904337507&luck=5&year=2000

It's probably impossible to find a simulation where Essendon win every game except the GF with only 5% luck, as there's just too large a gap between them and everyone else. They almost always win the flag even with 20% luck or more.

Final Siren · Apr 26, 2017

Dirty Bird said:
I've been going at it for an hour or so now to try and find a 22-0 and lose gf game but can't.

Essendon seems to only lose to 4 teams in finals. Hawthorn, Brisbane, Sydney and the Western Bulldogs.
The problem is, none of them can get through Carlton to get there, and the lions are the only one getting through Melbourne.

I've come across more bombers out in straight sets than I have losing the gf.

But it could happen
But I need the 5% of Essendon overturning the bulldogs, into the 90% of the other 21 games staying stagnant, into the 65% of Melbourne beating Carlton in the qualifying final to get there. I did it yesterday, but it's very hard to find it.

Though, here are some notable simulations of 2000 on 5% luck with no changes.

http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=531148741&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (Bombers win gf by 167 after losing qf to bulldogs)
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=726714000&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (Bombers go out in straight sets)
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=3085869496&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (Bombers win gf by 207 points)
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=2558245919&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (Bombers straight sets again)
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=3700250371&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (Invincible)
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=2457612492&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (22-0, lose qf in et. Rebound and win gf by 120)
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=1989257402&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (Win gf by 305 points)
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=443227738&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (Geelong drop 5.5 games dropping from 5th to 15th)
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=1811752061&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (Brisbane win the premiership from 8th including winning the ef in et)
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=1741858713&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (Bombers go 22-0 lose the preliminary)
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=283083166&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (And again)
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=2702265086&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (Win gf by 249 vs 8th)
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=2395475387&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (Win gf by 281 (297-16))
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=1293970927&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (22-0 and straight sets)
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=579876419&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (Lose pf by 11 goals)
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=3494870527&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (7th vs 8th gf, Richmond beats Essendon in prelim 97-17)
http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=3026339576&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (22-0, Brisbane do the double in finals)

I admire your dedication to finding the most painful Essendon reality possible.

I'm running a brute force scan now to see if I can find one. It's hard because we need two unlikely events: Essendon going 22-0 and losing the GF.

The 22-0 thing is more unlikely than it might seem, because we don't just need to flip that one game they lost in real life: we need it to flip while also having none of the other 21 wins flip to losses. There are lots of alternate realities where Essendon go 21-1 by winning the game they lost in real life but dropping one of the others.

As for the finals, in real life Essendon beat the Kangaroos, Carlton and Melbourne by 125, 45, and 60, which all require a big dose of luck to reverse. So with only 5% luck, it's easier to find an Essendon finals loss when the simulation has to estimate the scores, rather than starting with real ones - i.e. a game where Essendon plays an opponent like Brisbane who they never matched up on in reality. In all the simulations I've run so far where Essendon lose the GF, they go down to Brisbane. But in each of them, Essendon wins 21 games or fewer in the home & away season, like this.

I'll update this post if I find a 22-0 GF loss.

Edit: Aha! The Bomber win every game in the regular season but go down twice to Brisbane in the finals.

Dirty Bird · Apr 26, 2017

I'm looking too now

Don't think this gf record would be broken http://live.squiggle.com.au/2000.html?door=855957587&luck=5&year=2000&rewritehistory=0 (Essendon win 341-18)

Final Siren · Apr 26, 2017

Round 5, 2017

A good week for the top 3 in Adelaide, GWS and Geelong, who opened up a fair gap on the rest:

Squiggle also appreciated Port Adelaide pounding the snot out of Carlton to the tune of 90 points.

The rest of the top 7 slid, although for different reasons: The Western Bulldogs got the job done against Brisbane, but not very well; Sydney fell to GWS, which was expected, but not by that much; and West Coast were thumped in a game they were expected to win against the Hawks.

That was a great result for Hawthorn, as a bunch of mid-table teams also went nowhere. So while a week ago they were staring into the abyss, now they're back in the fight, one of those teams who might plausibly finish in a range of different spots, because everyone's pretty evenly matched:

Horrible for Collingwood, though, who are this week's team to most resemble the passage of digested food through a lower intestine.

The Tower is very suggestive of a top 3 of Adelaide, GWS, and Geelong. The bottom 2 is looking a lot like Carlton and Brisbane. Beyond that, though, things get less certain. From 9th down to 16th, the tower slices are nearly vertical, with plenty of teams capable of finishing in each slot.

In fact, the ladder predictor has 7 teams finishing with 9 wins, which would be really something:

It's an inflection point this week, with Richmond expected to start dropping games and Sydney expected to start collecting them. If that doesn't happen - if Richmond even run it close against the Crows in Adelaide, or Sydney don't win by much against Carlton - they will move on the squiggle.

Essendon had a good week, beating Collingwood in the ANZAC game, and Brisbane showed something against the Bulldogs, albeit off the back of Inside 50 conversation rates so eerily good that they were probably a statistical fluke.

The Tigers did it again this week, being almost exactly two goals better than expected, which, again, is good but not great. As a result, squiggle is showing a huge disparity between Richmond's likelihood of making finals (very good) and winning the flag (no chance):

Live squigs!

Squiggle dials: aggregated tips & predictions!

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot · Apr 26, 2017

Geez, the Crows have to beat Richmond by 50 points this week just to maintain their Squiggle status!

I'm confident of the Crows getting up, but not 50 points confident.

GreyCrow · Apr 26, 2017

Final Siren said:
Round 5, 2017

A good week for the top 3 in Adelaide, GWS and Geelong, who opened up a fair gap on the rest:

In fact, the ladder predictor has 7 teams finishing with 9 wins, which would be really something:

Live squigs!

Squiggle dials: aggregated tips & predictions!

2 things.

The top Squiggle looks as if GWS and Geelong are heading to Premiership territory more so than Adelaide. Does the territory they are heading to indicate more likely success or is Adelaide creating an outlier?

The Ladder predictor has Sydney on 11-11. I have seen comments saying that would be a blue moon happening. I myself had a lot of teams on similar wins ie big bunch. But I'm not sold on 7 on 9 wins. Shall be interesting to follow

threenewpadlocks · Apr 26, 2017

It'll be interesting to see what the Talia loss does to Adelaide's scores, and, by extension, their squiggle.

I see one of three things happening:
1. Adelaide continue to be a dominant team, but their defence is weaker, making their games even more high scoring. For example, squiggle is tipping a 121-71 Adelaide win. If Adelaide continue their upward trend, they might score 140, but concede 100 in the process.
2. In a roundabout way, Adelaide solidify their defence by not being as gung-ho with their brilliant attack, which is made possible with the solidity of Talia behind them. Adelaide deliberately slow down their ball movement, and lose out on attack whilst being as defensively solid, and if we assume the same 40 point margin, the score is 111-71
3. The loss of Talia makes no difference and they win something like 140-80.

Glenno23 · Apr 26, 2017

threenewpadlocks said:
It'll be interesting to see what the Talia loss does to Adelaide's scores, and, by extension, their squiggle.

I see one of three things happening:
1. Adelaide continue to be a dominant team, but their defence is weaker, making their games even more high scoring. For example, squiggle is tipping a 121-71 Adelaide win. If Adelaide continue their upward trend, they might score 140, but concede 100 in the process.
2. In a roundabout way, Adelaide solidify their defence by not being as gung-ho with their brilliant attack, which is made possible with the solidity of Talia behind them. Adelaide deliberately slow down their ball movement, and lose out on attack whilst being as defensively solid, and if we assume the same 40 point margin, the score is 111-71
3. The loss of Talia makes no difference and they win something like 140-80.

Talia is already training and is listed as a test for this week

The hammy he did was only a strain apparently. Which makes sense as he wasn't even running at the time he grabbed for it

But i think he will miss this week, even with the listed test

dogs105 · Apr 26, 2017

MWPP said:
She sounded like the fairy god sister I always wanted , but never had
I would've done anything to taste her pop biscuits /google buns too

I know these are not euphemisms, but I really wish they were...

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