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Mmm, not easily. I might save that for when he gets sacked. But I have this from June 2016; Collingwood haven't moved much since.
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Round 5, 2017
A good week for the top 3 in Adelaide, GWS and Geelong, who opened up a fair gap on the rest:
Squiggle also appreciated Port Adelaide pounding the snot out of Carlton to the tune of 90 points.
The rest of the top 7 slid, although for different reasons: The Western Bulldogs got the job done against Brisbane, but not very well; Sydney fell to GWS, which was expected, but not by that much; and West Coast were thumped in a game they were expected to win against the Hawks.
That was a great result for Hawthorn, as a bunch of mid-table teams also went nowhere. So while a week ago they were staring into the abyss, now they're back in the fight, one of those teams who might plausibly finish in a range of different spots, because everyone's pretty evenly matched:
Horrible for Collingwood, though, who are this week's team to most resemble the passage of digested food through a lower intestine.
The Tower is very suggestive of a top 3 of Adelaide, GWS, and Geelong. The bottom 2 is looking a lot like Carlton and Brisbane. Beyond that, though, things get less certain. From 9th down to 16th, the tower slices are nearly vertical, with plenty of teams capable of finishing in each slot.
In fact, the ladder predictor has 7 teams finishing with 9 wins, which would be really something:
It's an inflection point this week, with Richmond expected to start dropping games and Sydney expected to start collecting them. If that doesn't happen - if Richmond even run it close against the Crows in Adelaide, or Sydney don't win by much against Carlton - they will move on the squiggle.
Essendon had a good week, beating Collingwood in the ANZAC game, and Brisbane showed something against the Bulldogs, albeit off the back of Inside 50 conversation rates so eerily good that they were probably a statistical fluke.
The Tigers did it again this week, being almost exactly two goals better than expected, which, again, is good but not great. As a result, squiggle is showing a huge disparity between Richmond's likelihood of making finals (very good) and winning the flag (no chance):
Live squigs!
Squiggle dials: aggregated tips & predictions!
it's been explained why that is so in the past.
its all about playing the percentages as it were
The sharp falls at the start of each season are actually because the squiggle shifts all teams back towards the middle at that time. I should try to find a good way to display that, like a faded line or something.
I've set it up now so they're easy to generate. They're just a bit slow and jerky, especially if they involve many years or several teams at once.
Gws from day 1 to now would be a good one?!?
How would Adelaide cope with Jacobs out all year? Would be an interesting scenario.
Implying Richmond are without their number one ruck?? Maric is broken down and hasn't been good for years and Hampson was never good.... Only good games he ever plays are against his former club.
Jacobs isn't even that good anymore, but holds his own in the ruck. If we had to rely on the raw O'Brien, we might be in a bit of trouble but it's not like 2014 when losing Jacobs was the doomsday scenario.
I'm using Sportsbet for Punters at the moment.
i would hazard a guess that the percentage gained from the punters would be an inference from the odds, the higher one teams odds in comparison to the other, the higher the percentage
Nah, wants more attention on Port not having ryder last year...Implying Richmond are without their number one ruck?? Maric is broken down and hasn't been good for years and Hampson was never good.... Only good games he ever plays are against his former club.
