Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

[J_Moore]

Cor blimey that's crowded from 2-5.

 

[Power Raid]

The Swans have been amazing post round 6. I had pencilled in a GWS v (crows/ cats) GF but I'd now say Swans v (GWS/ crows)

 

[Max Headroom]

Thank you Lore for alerting me to this thread, I can see I will have many happy hours looking at these lovely mathematical models. Your timing is excellent!

 

[SBYM]

Richmond/Essendon EF hey?

Boy oh boy wow-****ing-wee.

 

[funk44]

Richmond/Essendon EF hey?

Boy oh boy wow-*******-wee.

Would be 95k+ at the G

 

[hotkorma]

I literally had a little squiggle come out of my pants in anticipation of this Friday night.

 

[craffles]

How have I only just discovered this, ripper of a thread

 

[SBYM]

Would be 95k+ at the G

There were 94,690 at our game in 2013 against the Tigers.

In light of recent events...and considering both teams haven't won a final since federation...I reckon you're right.

 

[Del165198]

There were 94,690 at our game in 2013 against the Tigers.

In light of recent events...and considering both teams haven't won a final since federation...I reckon you're right.

Be almost as good as a port/crows qualifying final

 

[SBYM]

Be almost as good as a port/crows qualifying final

Now that would be a deadset ripper.

 

[The Gong]

I may be mentally challenged but I still don't get the tower of power. What am I looking at there?

 

[funk44]

I may be mentally challenged but I still don't get the tower of power. What am I looking at there?

Likelihood of finishing position

 

[Rotayjay]

I may be mentally challenged but I still don't get the tower of power. What am I looking at there?

The changing likelihood of each team finishing in each position. The more of your team's colours are in a certain spot on the ladder, the more likely your team is to finish around that spot. So Brisbane are taking up most of 18th spot because they are much more likely than anyone else to finish 18th.

 

[Max Headroom]

I may be mentally challenged but I still don't get the tower of power. What am I looking at there?

If you go to the website via the link in the post you can read the assumptions under the info link. I just found this fun stuff in the last few days myself.

On the Tower of power:

Shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

 

[The Gong]

Cheers for the info

 

[SBYM]

Be almost as good as a port/crows qualifying final

Remind me again, which was the absolute Showdown classic, three or four years ago, I think Monfries kicked a really late goal to win it??

 

[therealbuzza]

Remind me again, which was the absolute Showdown classic, three or four years ago, I think Monfries kicked a really late goal to win it??

Showdown 35, the last one at Football Park.

 

[SBYM]

That's the one...

What. A. Finish.

 

[HTT]

Final Siren, why does it look like the flagpole rose for every team, bar St Kilda, Freo and the Kangaroos?

Final Siren might be able to correct me,but I think it's because the model used causes a lot of inflation (I.e you could perform as expected all year and go up). So it's a lot easier to rise than it is to fall.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Is it wrong that the main thing that keeps my optimism for my team up is that the Squiggle rates them?

Looking at the draw I have little confidence of the Crows finishing top of the ladder, but I just hope that I'm wrong and the Squiggle is right!

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Remind me again, which was the absolute Showdown classic, three or four years ago, I think Monfries kicked a really late goal to win it??

That was the last Football Park Showdown. Crows were up by 5-6 goals before Port stormed back to win it. Either Monfries or Wingard had a goal from a ball that looked certain to go through for a point, before bouncing at an 80 degree angle to score a goal.

 

[SBYM]

That was the last Football Park Showdown. Crows were up by 5-6 goals before Port stormed back to win it. Either Monfries or Wingard had a goal from a ball that looked certain to go through for a point, before bouncing at an 80 degree angle to score a goal.

Yeah, I'd forgotten about the exact nature of the goal Monfries kicked until I watched that vid above.

Footy, hey? She's a funny old game...

 

[Bonkers000]

Showdown 35, the last one at Football Park.

You were bloody quick to dig that video up.

 

[BotsMaster]

Be almost as good as a port/crows qualifying final

The last time the Crows and Port played in a final it was a blowout if I recall correctly.

 

[Papa G]

The last time the Crows and Port played in a final it was a blowout if I recall correctly.

That was effectively 1st v 8th though. Think teams ate far more evenly matched now.