I look forward to FS' reflections on the Tigers march on a premiership
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Why don't you get off Bigfooty and pay attention to your education.I'm in a 3 hour lecture that started at 9. I need squiggle. NOW.
People do that?Why don't you get off Bigfooty and pay attention to your education.
Squiggle has Hawthorn a 54% chance of beating the Tiges. Its gonna be a hummdinger.every time there is a notification on this thread I hope for Squiggle
Have I ever seen a more ironic username? I think not.Why don't you get off Bigfooty and pay attention to your education.
2017 Round 19Honestly, Squiggle is no good this week. It was one of the greatest rounds of football in history; I can't add anything to it with charts.
That's the good stuff. Miracles happening right in front of your face.
But since we're here:
Animated!
A good week for the Cats, who belted Carlton while the Crows, Swans, and Power struggled. It was just a little spoiled by the fact that Adelaide's last-gasp draw against Collingwood was no good to the Crows for anything other than pride and finishing above Geelong, since now their percentage matters again. Assuming no more draws, that is. Of course, three weeks ago I said, "assuming no more draws," and there were immediately two more. Teams are drawing all over the place. So who knows.
These 11-goal-wins-over-bad-teams are the kinds of games that squiggle rates and humans don't. They're easy to overlook, because you expect the better team to win comfortably. But it's worth taking notice when the margin is 70-odd instead of 30.
It's also worth looking at scoring shots. This year I've been trialling a new algorithm in the background that will probably take over from the venerable ISTATE-91:12 in powering squiggle next year. One of the main differences is that it pays attention to scoring shots, since teams don't tend to remain unusually accurate (or inaccurate) for very long. Most weeks it doesn't make a huge difference, but this week Squiggle 2.0 rates GWS much higher for their 13.20 to Fremantle's 13.8, as well as Richmond for defeating Gold Coast 14.14 to 10.5. Geelong's victory over Carlton becomes even more emphatic (18.15 to 8.10), and Essendon (13.19) look a lot more competitive against the Bulldogs (19.13). Also St Kilda get a technical victory against Port (8.13 to 9.9), as do Collingwood over Adelaide (15.13 to 16.7).
Meanwhile, after Adelaide's slide, Sydney are now rated the #1 form team! Just. That's based on their strength in home & away matches; finals will be a little different, both because Sydney are unlikely to finish high enough to get home finals, and because they're more of a defensive specialist than most premiership teams.
A bit of separation has emerged after the top 2, with Adelaide and Geelong likely to claim those spots. Then Port, GWS, and Richmond form a tier, for the moment, being the most likely to take out 3rd to 5th. Sydney are the most likely to jump up alongside them.
On the Tower, the long, snake-like tendrils of Hawthorn are creeping upward:
That's a pretty significant chance of a Hawks finals campaign for a team that's spent most of the season eyeing off 17th.
But there's a bit of a hard line below that, formed by Collingwood. Basically if you're better than Collingwood, you might play finals, but if you're worse than Collingwood, you can't. Also you can't if you're Collingwood.
North's continuation of their long-running curb stomp over Melbourne had the unfortunate side-effect of making a Round 23 SpoonBowl vs Brisbane less likely. But we can always hope.
This week's adjusted Flagpole has the Swans slip below the Cats! On original Flagpole, as seen on https://live.squiggle.com.au, Sydney are still a clear 2nd. So I'm not sure about that. But we'll go with it for now:
More squiggles!
Live squiggle!
Tower of Power providing visual evidence that the many headed Hydra like Hawthorn lives. The monster must be slayed. And the Tigers (aka Heracles) is the team we look towards to deliver the coup de grace
Hang on - in this horror scenario how do Hawks win prelim v adel but Port beat Tigers in the GFNow the squiggle has smelled your fear:
Hawks will make finals, win the Elimination final, Geelong lose their Qualifyer and Hawks knock out the Cats in the Semi after Motlop plays on after a mark in the goalsquare, then gets caught holding the ball. They then knock the Crows out of the Adelaide Oval Prelim leaving Port to win the flag against Richmond.
#nightmares
Hawks will make finals, win the Elimination final, Geelong lose their Qualifyer and Hawks knock out the Cats in the Semi after Motlop plays on after a mark in the goalsquare, then gets caught holding the ball. They then knock the Crows out of the Adelaide Oval Prelim leaving Port to win the flag against Richmond.
Dreams and nightmares dont have to make sense.Hang on - in this horror scenario how do Hawks win prelim v adel but Port beat Tigers in the GF
Up until the port and Richmond part it's like you wrote down word for word what I told Gill to organise. I can only imagine the shock caused your mind to reject the final words and picked the lesser for two evils for youNow the squiggle has smelled your fear:
Hawks will make finals, win the Elimination final, Geelong lose their Qualifyer and Hawks knock out the Cats in the Semi after Motlop plays on after a mark in the goalsquare, then gets caught holding the ball. They then knock the Crows out of the Adelaide Oval Prelim leaving Port to win the flag against Richmond.
#nightmares
Disqualified for Langford having sex on field.Hang on - in this horror scenario how do Hawks win prelim v adel but Port beat Tigers in the GF
As you can see, my mind can go to some pretty dark places (depending on your point of view). Nothing shocks me lol.Up until the port and Richmond part it's like you wrote down word for word what I told Gill to organise. I can only imagine the shock caused your mind to reject the final words and picked the lesser for two evils for you
Can someone load a sexual harrasment algorithm into the squiggle please?Disqualified for Langford having sex on field.
I'm sure in one of the sliding doors you'll find this scenarioCan someone load a sexual harrasment algorithm into the squiggle please?
Spot on. Bombers had 19 points on the weekend but half a dozen of them were kicks to the goal square that got punched through for a behind and gave possession back to the Dogs.I'm very sceptical about this increased veneration for scoring shots in new versions.
Sure, a stack of behinds can be indicative of poor luck when kicking for goal, but it can also be a consequence of
(1) Rushed behinds
(2) Poor penetration in the forward line. Taking shots from bad angles or distances because they can't get into better positions
(3) Defensive pressure
If you're going to go down this path, you really want to make calculations based on the shots which teams manage to set up, and what their chances were. This will include the easy shots which were sprayed OOB, and exclude the non-chances which dribbled through for a behind.
Bottom line - converting chances to goals is good - it's what teams are trying to achieve.
I'm very sceptical about this increased veneration for scoring shots in new versions.
Sure, a stack of behinds can be indicative of poor luck when kicking for goal, but it can also be a consequence of
(1) Rushed behinds
(2) Poor penetration in the forward line. Taking shots from bad angles or distances because they can't get into better positions
(3) Defensive pressure
If you're going to go down this path, you really want to make calculations based on the shots which teams manage to set up, and what their chances were. This will include the easy shots which were sprayed OOB, and exclude the non-chances which dribbled through for a behind.
Bottom line - converting chances to goals is good - it's what teams are trying to achieve.
I don't think any of this is news to Final Siren. Fact is, if the scoring shot model is more explanatory, then it's better.Final Siren there are some people on Twitter doing some good work with scoring shot, FiguringFooty one of them - would strongly recommend looking at some of his work first before going to a blunt scoring shot model, as not all defences/forward 50 entries are similar