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Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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My life without Final Siren telling me how it'll unfold... How... do... I... go... on...

Need life squiggles...

More importantly... predictions! :D I wonder if there was some sort of multiplier along the way, something you've factored in with major outs. Historically, can go back over the team performances when certain players have missed to see how the team has dealt with it, eg. Swans Franklin & Kennedy, Cats Dangerwood, Tigers Martin & Riewoldt, etc.

Be really interesting to see if you've done anything like that and if it factors in a different result for Crows/GWS tonight. Without getting all Roby on us...
 
So last night went to Squiggle plan.

Tonight is a very close call. Geelogn favourite, but in the Tigers home paddock (I just love the crazy way this has worked out)

Then clear favourites for the last 2 games.

Plenty to think about. But the squiggle looks like a good lead so far.
 
The Swans Blog said:
Final Siren Predictions! :mad:
Click to expand...
rYzvCTV.png

Cats v Tigers is the only one that lots of people/models are split on, mostly because of ambiguity around how to treat home ground advantage.

Squiggle (controversially) awards HGA to the Cats, based on historical precedent that it seems to matter more who is nominally the home team rather than where it's actually played. Without this, it would be Richmond by one-tenth of one point.

The Swans Blog said:
I wonder if there was some sort of multiplier along the way, something you've factored in with major outs. Historically, can go back over the team performances when certain players have missed to see how the team has dealt with it, eg. Swans Franklin & Kennedy, Cats Dangerwood, Tigers Martin & Riewoldt, etc.
Click to expand...
It's hard to find any reliable effect like that in the data, even though logically you'd imagine it's there. For example, here's Rourke from this great new ABC finals predictor page: "Normally we find the effect of one individual going in or out is almost not noticeable... It's more about that team's structure and their overall philosophy and how they go about covering for that player."

Still, I suspect we'll have some new player-based models emerging in the future. But right now there are no public ones.

I do remember taking a crack at it back in 2013 and getting laughed off the forum because it kept rating Rance highly when everyone knew he was a bumbling hack!
 

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Final Siren said:
rYzvCTV.png

Cats v Tigers is the only one that lots of people/models are split on, mostly because of ambiguity around how to treat home ground advantage.

Squiggle (controversially) awards HGA to the Cats, based on historical precedent that it seems to matter more who is nominally the home team rather than where it's actually played. Without this, it would be Richmond by one-tenth of one point.


It's hard to find any reliable effect like that in the data, even though logically you'd imagine it's there. For example, here's Rourke from this great new ABC finals predictor page: "Normally we find the effect of one individual going in or out is almost not noticeable... It's more about that team's structure and their overall philosophy and how they go about covering for that player."

Still, I suspect we'll have some new player-based models emerging in the future. But right now there are no public ones.

I do remember taking a crack at it back in 2013 and getting laughed off the forum because it kept rating Rance highly when everyone knew he was a bumbling hack!
Click to expand...

But Rance is a bumbling hack. George Rane in the Woebegone under 10's that is.
 
Final Siren said:
rYzvCTV.png

Cats v Tigers is the only one that lots of people/models are split on, mostly because of ambiguity around how to treat home ground advantage.

Squiggle (controversially) awards HGA to the Cats, based on historical precedent that it seems to matter more who is nominally the home team rather than where it's actually played. Without this, it would be Richmond by one-tenth of one point.
Click to expand...

Amusingly, I make Richmond better by 4/10 of a point.
 
Final Siren said:
rYzvCTV.png

Cats v Tigers is the only one that lots of people/models are split on, mostly because of ambiguity around how to treat home ground advantage.

Squiggle (controversially) awards HGA to the Cats, based on historical precedent that it seems to matter more who is nominally the home team rather than where it's actually played. Without this, it would be Richmond by one-tenth of one point.


It's hard to find any reliable effect like that in the data, even though logically you'd imagine it's there. For example, here's Rourke from this great new ABC finals predictor page: "Normally we find the effect of one individual going in or out is almost not noticeable... It's more about that team's structure and their overall philosophy and how they go about covering for that player."

Still, I suspect we'll have some new player-based models emerging in the future. But right now there are no public ones.

I do remember taking a crack at it back in 2013 and getting laughed off the forum because it kept rating Rance highly when everyone knew he was a bumbling hack!
Click to expand...
You weren't Roby were you? :O
 

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Seeds said:
gees you guys still paying attention to this statistical hocus pocus garbage. This is to statistics as to what natropaths are to trained doctors. in fact it might be worse.
Click to expand...
gees you still paying attention to something you dont care about?
 
Seeds said:
gees you guys still paying attention to this statistical hocus pocus garbage. This is to statistics as to what natropaths are to trained doctors. in fact it might be worse.
Click to expand...
So much hocus pocus garbage at the moment. Geelong players are still doing that ducking hocus pocus garbage, Dangerfield still doing that kicking it to the opposition hocus pocus garbage too!
 
Seeds said:
gees you guys still paying attention to this statistical hocus pocus garbage. This is to statistics as to what natropaths are to trained doctors. in fact it might be worse.
Click to expand...
Hocus pocus? I think Final Siren's made it pretty clear that it's not meant to be used as for statistical analysis, and that it's just a visual representation of where teams are ranked.
 

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harrythetiger said:
When was the last time the squiggle rated us this high?
Click to expand...
Richmond are STILL not even rated better than they were in late 2015, when they were mowed down by North Melbourne in the Elimination Final. I tell you, it's a frustrating time for the Richmond-following squiggler.

What is different is that the opposition are weaker - in particular, there's no Hawthorn, who dominated in 2015 - and the Tigers are facing a particularly generous path to the Grand Final. I've never seen the tiger logo in the GF prediction before. So I'm screenshotting it while I have the chance.

I5SPzW5.png
 
Ian Dunross said:
Whoever wins between Sydney and Adelaide wins the flag surely.

No disrespect to the Tigers.
Click to expand...

No disrespect taken. Only a little better than a 50% chance to even make the GF. Crows and Swans are clearly the two most dangerous teams playing at the moment, would take a monumental effort to beat earthier of them.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

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Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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