Discussion St Kilda - Home of the 2nd Chance and a shot at redemption

[Mowman]

Surely there's not many sides like this but it clicked on the weekend how many of our best 22 are players who got their 2nd chance at our club and are flourishing.

Wilkie: SANFL mature age
Lienert: SANFL mature age recruit, delisted by Port Adelaide
Sinclair: overlooked in the draft, taken as a 19 year old from the VFL in the rookie draft
Wood: delisted by North Melbourne, taken as a DFA/SPS
Higgins: Richmond seemed to prioritize the other smalls on their list over Higgins, had to overcome some pretty scary injury/illness issues at Richmond
Ryder: looked done at Port who were prioritising the younger rucks like Lycett over him. Came to our club at the end of his career and had a rocky start but then really found his feet and produced some amazing football thats prolonged his career.
Marshall: VFL mature age
Butler: starved of opportunity at Richmond who looked to be prioritising others ahead of him.
Hayes: SANFL mature age
Membrey: sydney were still playing Goodes ahead of Membrey so he looked for opportunity else where
Howard: Port looked to have moved past him and were happy to see him leave
Crouch: offield scandal saw adelaide want to move him on for draft currency which kind of backfired for them
Steele: lack of opportunity at GWS saw him look for another home

thats 13/22 on the weekend.

we also have on the list:
Campbell: DFA from North Melbourne
Kent: move for opportunity from Melbourne
Jones: not really a 2nd chance more a move back home
Hill: see Jones although $$$
Highmore: SANFL mature age
Sharman:SANFL mature age
Heath: overlooked 19 year old in mid season draft

i'm not raising this as a criticism i think it's something unique we have that could form a bit of culture around really pushing the side to improve and really develop some resilience within the group. it also could be motivation for the likes of Long etc. who have shown glimpses but seem to struggle really cementing themselves in the side. they too could get a 2nd chance at this and really become a player. similar to what we've seen with McKenzie and before that Geary.

is there another side like this?

the players we got that were young
Steele
Sincs
Membrey
Higgins
you would happily use a 1 st round pick knowing what we know now

 

[PJays]

One you might have missed SS was Jarrod Witts - sat on the pies list for 4 yrs played a few games then went to GC - missed last year with a knee but a good ruckman and a big unit as well. Sometimes these guys really shine when given a chance especially if they are the sole ruckman in the team. I think it should be a wait and see with Campbell. Preuss just played his 1st game for GWS and did very well , 34 H/O ironically against Witts. He was a back-up at Melb and the Roos.

Preuss is 26

Unlike Campbell he's a prospect who might have 5 or 6 years of contribution ahead of him.

 

[PJays]

Witts is one of the best pure rucks in footy. I rate him higher than most. Pruess looked great early and like a potential star....then kept moving to teams where he'd be third or fourth in line for a spot. I reckon guys like Pitonet and Hickey are good examples of battlers who came good late.

Hickey displayed obvious talent at 25 playing for St Kilda- had a great year in 2016

Witts has been GCs number 1 ruck since he was 24

Preuss is 26

Not sure why these guys are relevant to the question of St Kilda drafting a 30 year old ruck who never made it, and will be around for 1 or 2 years

 

[ScrappyDo]

I agree but if money-ball has got us sitting mid table like Richo got us through the draft then it has been pointless. Our best chance at a premiership might still be to build around King for a tilt in 3 or 4 years. The top ups may be the worst of both worlds policy. Part of where we are now is due to Richo getting the maximum out of a limited list instead of stepping back for a few years and drafting hard at the pointy end, topping up might keep us sitting in the middle rungs for ever.

Yeah umm, didn't we win a prelim 2 years ago, then finish a game out of finals after the hardest fixture and an historically bad injury run?
Isn't our whole problem that we still don't know where we're at? Can't you let Richo die in peace?

 

[gringo2011]

Yeah umm, didn't we win a prelim 2 years ago, then finish a game out of finals after the hardest fixture and an historically bad injury run?
Isn't our whole problem that we still don't know where we're at? Can't you let Richo die in peace?

I’m not sure where you got a preliminary final from. If we’d won that we would have been in a GF. It was a semi that we lost. It was a weird COVID hub year and looked like we had a pretty good injury run in hindsight. We should know where we are just by having an analyst like Rath in charge. Surely his forte is list assessment?

 

[PJays]

We don't need experts to tell us where we're at. I think we'd mostly agree

It seems clear we're a middle rung team.

We're pretty one dimensional. We thrive when we pressure and run, but we're also hot and cold.

If things go well, we might make finals. We might even win a final like 2020.

If things go badly, we might finish 13th or 14th, but we're unlikely to finish any lower than that unless we have a catastrophic run with injuries.

If absolutely everything went right....

- Good run with injuries

- Someone, or ideally multiple players, step up from solid contributors to all Australian level (in 2020 this was Steele. This year maybe King, Gresham, Crouch, Marshall or Howard).

- Some players have career best years (in 2020 several did, most notably Butler)

- Some kids step up and grab a spot with both hands, becoming a valuable contributor (in 2020 King did, this year maybe Wanganeen-Milera)

- Some new recruits add something to the team and become valuable contributors who you wouldn't even think about dropping (eg in 2020 there were a few eg Ryder, Howard, Jones, Butler. This year hopefully Hayes or Lienert)

- We tighten up defensively

- We develop more consistency instead of the regular cold stretches we've seen in 2021 and 2022

- Some of the premiership contenders slip away a little for whatever reason, poor form, premiership hangover (Melbourne) age (Geelong) injuries (any)

- We play our absolute best football for 3 or 4 straight games in September

If all of that happened we're an outside shot at a premiership.

But how likely is all that? How likely is a flag this year?

To put a number on it? I dunno. 1 in 40? 1 in 50?

Whereas if we develop the list with the future in mind, focusing on younger players and aim to have a group peaking while Max King

12

Max King

Age

23

Ht

202cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.3

2star

K

4.7

2star

HB

2.6

2star

M

2.7

3star

T

0.7

3star

G

1.4

5star

D

7.3

2star

K

4.7

2star

HB

2.6

2star

M

2.7

3star

T

0.7

1star

G

1.4

5star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.2

2star

HB

2.8

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

0.6

3star

G

1.4

5star

peaks in 2025 and 2026, that number might reduce from 40 or 50 down to single digits, all going to plan.

 

[ScrappyDo]

I’m not sure where you got a preliminary final from. If we’d won that we would have been in a GF. It was a semi that we lost. It was a weird COVID hub year and looked like we had a pretty good injury run in hindsight. We should know where we are just by having an analyst like Rath in charge. Surely his forte is list assessment?

I have a bad feeling about Rath TBH.
I also don't think we have any reliable form line what so ever. Our team is the embodiment of statistical noise.

 

[Bill Mohr]

Hickey displayed obvious talent at 25 playing for St Kilda- had a great year in 2016

Witts has been GCs number 1 ruck since he was 24

Preuss is 26

Not sure why these guys are relevant to the question of St Kilda drafting a 30 year old ruck who never made it, and will be around for 1 or 2 years

They are relevant in the sense that they have been at other clubs like Campbell and never made it there, then moved and got that "2nd chance". You can only make a call on Campbell after his career at St Kilda is finished. Maybe he was the only ruckman the saints could get hold of at that particular time.

 

[bird_man]

Hickey displayed obvious talent at 25 playing for St Kilda- had a great year in 2016

Witts has been GCs number 1 ruck since he was 24

Preuss is 26

Not sure why these guys are relevant to the question of St Kilda drafting a 30 year old ruck who never made it, and will be around for 1 or 2 years

The fact is, we tried to get Xerri and missed out

If Marshall and Ryder were to go down we'd be left with Heath is has played 2 games against men in his career

Campbell is not only great for our young mids development in the VFL he'd also be great for Heaths development

 

[ScrappyDo]

Hickey displayed obvious talent at 25 playing for St Kilda- had a great year in 2016

Witts has been GCs number 1 ruck since he was 24

Preuss is 26

Not sure why these guys are relevant to the question of St Kilda drafting a 30 year old ruck who never made it, and will be around for 1 or 2 years

I'm not sure what the argument is here.
The club tried to get both Draper and Xerri in recent memory but Campbell is all we could manage, and he's a vfl performer and afl backup. Is this supposed to be a mistake? Why?

 

[bird_man]

We also added six 18 year olds, Heath and Sharman all before adding Campbell to the list

Often success builds from the bottom

We need our kids coming through Sandringham to know what it's like to be in a successful environment.

Our Sandy side has been bog average for years.

 

[pebblesofsand]

We don't need experts to tell us where we're at. I think we'd mostly agree

It seems clear we're a middle rung team.

We're pretty one dimensional. We thrive when we pressure and run, but we're also hot and cold.

If things go well, we might make finals. We might even win a final like 2020.

If things go badly, we might finish 13th or 14th, but we're unlikely to finish any lower than that unless we have a catastrophic run with injuries.

If absolutely everything went right....

- Good run with injuries

- Someone, or ideally multiple players, step up from solid contributors to all Australian level (in 2020 this was Steele. This year maybe King, Gresham, Crouch, Marshall or Howard).

- Some players have career best years (in 2020 several did, most notably Butler)

- Some kids step up and grab a spot with both hands, becoming a valuable contributor (in 2020 King did, this year maybe Wanganeen-Milera)

- Some new recruits add something to the team and become valuable contributors who you wouldn't even think about dropping (eg in 2020 there were a few eg Ryder, Howard, Jones, Butler. This year hopefully Hayes or Lienert)

- We tighten up defensively

- We develop more consistency instead of the regular cold stretches we've seen in 2021 and 2022

- Some of the premiership contenders slip away a little for whatever reason, poor form, premiership hangover (Melbourne) age (Geelong) injuries (any)

- We play our absolute best football for 3 or 4 straight games in September

If all of that happened we're an outside shot at a premiership.

But how likely is all that? How likely is a flag this year?

To put a number on it? I dunno. 1 in 40? 1 in 50?

Whereas if we develop the list with the future in mind, focusing on younger players and aim to have a group peaking while Max King peaks in 2025 and 2026, that number might reduce from 40 or 50 down to single digits, all going to plan.

The same could be said at the start of last year about Melbourne and the Doggies in 2016.

So given thats its happened twice in 5 years the chances of us winning the premiership this year are much higher than you think.

 

[gringo2011]

I'm not sure what the argument is here.
The club tried to get both Draper and Xerri in recent memory but Campbell is all we could manage, and he's a vfl performer and afl backup. Is this supposed to be a mistake? Why?

I guess you could start by asking why we have no rucks in the system already and are still trying to patch holes. Marshall is still unsigned and Paddy is at the end. If someone offers a huge contract and Marshall goes what then? Relying on tempting away someone else's young rucks doesn't seem to be a very solid one based on our success rate.

Perhaps we should have signed Goober.

 

[prophetic1]

I guess you could start by asking why we have no rucks in the system already and are still trying to patch holes. Marshall is still unsigned and Paddy is at the end. If someone offers a huge contract and Marshall goes what then? Relying on tempting away someone else's young rucks doesn't seem to be a very solid one based on our success rate.

Perhaps we should have signed Goober.

Now you've really depressed me...if someone takes MARSHAL i don't want to get out of bed ever!

 

[PJays]

The same could be said at the start of last year about Melbourne and the Doggies in 2016.

So given thats its happened twice in 5 years the chances of us winning the premiership this year are much higher than you think.

I wasn't surprised when Melbourne took the next step last year- they had an underlying spread of elite talent. Gawn, Petracca and Oliver didn't become superstars overnight. Every year since 2018 (when they made the prelim) I was expecting them to become premiership contenders.

Dogs had a group of talented young players who made real noise in 2015 (Bont, Stringer, Macrae etc) along with some quality veterans left over from their 2008-2010 era (Boyd, Morris, Murphy, Wood etc), their finals loss against Adelaide in 2015 was a high level game, off the back of a 14-8 season.

Although the Dogs winning from outside top 4 was a unique event- its only happened twice in 50 years

I'd love to be optimistic about St Kilda but I don't rate our chances as equivalent to the chances of the Dogs at start 2016 or Melbourne at start 2021. And I'm not just saying that in hindsight. They both had more elite talent or potential elite talent.

St Kilda has Steele, and King looks like he's quickly getting there, but they need more players to step into that category. Marshall and Gresham have looked close at times, Clark has shown flashes. Howard looks a fairly dependable Key back and still only 25. But we'll need multiple players to make that jump if we're to win a flag.

 

[PJays]

I guess you could start by asking why we have no rucks in the system already and are still trying to patch holes.

Exactly

Abbott, Hunter, Mckernan, Campbell

We're just bringing in delisted, old rejects every year. They play a few games, don't look up to it (unsurprisingly), so we bring someone else in. This isn't a successful long term strategy.

Edit: And before anyone mentions Paddy Ryder, he was an All Australian in recent memory (2017) and had played 15 games or more for 12 straight years. (Ignoring the supplement ban year). This is totally different to guys who had been on AFL lists for 10 years and never been deemed good enough to get consistent games. Ryder was actually a prospect of being an impact player for 2-3 years- which he has. These other guys were not.

But even Ryder illustrates this broader point. Why are we bringing in old rucks? Is it because Longer's retirement left a hole in the ruck stocks? That was several years ago. Either way, it's just a long term list failure to be constantly recycling 30 year old rejects every year. Ryder isn't a "reject" he's a proven AFL player, but these other guys, bringing them in just illustrates desperation on St Kilda's part. But again, why are we so desperate? How did it get to this point?

 

[Ads734]

the players we got that were young
Steele
Sincs
Membrey
Higgins
you would happily use a 1 st round pick knowing what we know now

It's all risk reward isn't it?

For instance with a pick in the 50/60's your unlikely to have success at picking a young draftee. Alterntively you're far more likley to get games from guys who have played at other clubs. Thats for that scenario, relating to Wood, Butler, etc.

I think that are niche for a while has been getting young guys at other successful clubs who have struggled to get games.
Members
Steele,
Higgins,
Butler
Bruce
Roberton (diff circumstances IK)

The advantage is that these guys have already been developed so less 'investment' is needed.

Then we've had some good success with mature agers

Wilkie
Sinclaire
Marsha;;

^
all three are arguably top 10 in our team

add Sharman, HIghmore and Hayes and Nick Hind and even Matty Parker.

I agree that our free agents havn't been crash hot.

 

[Bill Mohr]

It's all risk reward isn't it?

For instance with a pick in the 50/60's your unlikely to have success at picking a young draftee. Alterntively you're far more likley to get games from guys who have played at other clubs. Thats for that scenario, relating to Wood, Butler, etc.

I think that are niche for a while has been getting young guys at other successful clubs who have struggled to get games.
Members
Steele,
Higgins,
Butler
Bruce
Roberton (diff circumstances IK)

The advantage is that these guys have already been developed so less 'investment' is needed.

Then we've had some good success with mature agers

Wilkie
Sinclaire
Marsha;;

^
all three are arguably top 10 in our team

add Sharman, HIghmore and Hayes and Nick Hind and even Matty Parker.

I agree that our free agents havn't been crash hot.

Not arguably, they would be in the top 10 for sure.
It is similar to buying a racehorse. Buy the 2 year old, train it up and it may turn out to be a star for many years but it may also bust. Or buy the 6 year old gelding who still has 6 or 7 wins left in it and you have a money earner immediately and may even win the Cranbourne cup with it.

 

[PJays]

Or buy the 6 year old gelding who still has 6 or 7 wins left in it and you have a money earner immediately and may even win the Cranbourne cup with it.

Yep except we're trying to win the Melbourne cup (win the flag), not the Cranbourne Cup (make finals).

Many of the moves were great. But the key thing for me is age. We picked up Wilkie as a 22 year old, Marshall at about 20.

It's the older ones that are questionable. Wood (27), Lienert (27), Hunter (28), McKernan (30), Abbott (29ish), Campbell (30), Frawley (32). Those guys will, at best, be in the 15-22 range for a few years. They're unlikely to improve any more. Take Wood, he played alright on the weekend, but he's 28 years old. Not getting any better. That's probably the best game you can ever expect to see from him.

So I'd prefer we put those resources into younger guys. Instead of these old guys, play kids who might have potential to be better than a 15-22 fringe player one day.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Witts is one of the best pure rucks in footy. I rate him higher than most. Pruess looked great early and like a potential star....then kept moving to teams where he'd be third or fourth in line for a spot. I reckon guys like Pitonet and Hickey are good examples of battlers who came good late.

Yeah Preuss is an odd one, almost like he likes the pay but not the pressure.
When he plays he's always been OK.

 

[Bill Mohr]

Yep except we're trying to win the Melbourne cup (win the flag), not the Cranbourne Cup (make finals).

Many of the moves were great. But the key thing for me is age. We picked up Wilkie as a 22 year old, Marshall at about 20.

It's the older ones that are questionable. Wood (27), Lienert (27), Hunter (28), McKernan (30), Abbott (29ish), Campbell (30), Frawley (32). Those guys will, at best, be in the 15-22 range for a few years. They're unlikely to improve any more. Take Wood, he played alright on the weekend, but he's 28 years old. Not getting any better. That's probably the best game you can ever expect to see from him.

So I'd prefer we put those resources into younger guys. Instead of these old guys, play kids who might have potential to be better than a 15-22 fringe player one day.

You have to win a Cranbourne cup before you win a Melbourne cup. There is no walk up start to the big one.

You have to have older experienced players in the side. 25-30 is a good age bracket. Every side who wins a flag has older players. Impossible to get a very young side to win big games early. It takes a few years to build that up. remember the hawks team? Too old, too slow------Too good
4 of those players named are not there now. Wood is capable of playing for 2-3 more years and from the sounds of it, we have more than enough young ones in the 2's to take his place by then.
Paddy R is 34 going on 40 and a vital member of the side.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Not arguably, they would be in the top 10 for sure.
It is similar to buying a racehorse. Buy the 2 year old, train it up and it may turn out to be a star for many years but it may also bust. Or buy the 6 year old gelding who still has 6 or 7 wins left in it and you have a money earner immediately and may even win the Cranbourne cup with it.

But its not an individual effort.
If we lose Paddy and Marshall, we have a guy who hasn't played an AFL level game, and we have Campbell.
Do we throw the season in to develop your young guy?
Does it help him if he gets smashed each week?

The need is obvious.

No-one keeps a huge stock of key defenders or key rucks.
If you have too many good ones, the 2nd best will go elsewhere to get a game, you only play one or 2.

We are very lucky that we have Joyce, who seems content to play VFL until needed. ( and even with Joyce it wouldn't surprise me if a desperate team threw cash at him ). Him , and some 3rd talls who can struggle through a game as full back , mean we don't need a "Frawley" type right now.

Once Heath starts looking the goods, or Allen , a well managed team would recruit some more of these types ( remembering that some will wash out Clavarino style ). If we fail to do that, its back to rummaging through the scrap bin.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Yep except we're trying to win the Melbourne cup (win the flag), not the Cranbourne Cup (make finals).

Many of the moves were great. But the key thing for me is age. We picked up Wilkie as a 22 year old, Marshall at about 20.

It's the older ones that are questionable. Wood (27), Lienert (27), Hunter (28), McKernan (30), Abbott (29ish), Campbell (30), Frawley (32). Those guys will, at best, be in the 15-22 range for a few years. They're unlikely to improve any more. Take Wood, he played alright on the weekend, but he's 28 years old. Not getting any better. That's probably the best game you can ever expect to see from him.

So I'd prefer we put those resources into younger guys. Instead of these old guys, play kids who might have potential to be better than a 15-22 fringe player one day.

When i see us recruiting players like Alison, and maybe even Sharman or Hayes, it seems like Ratten has a definite tall winger role in mind.
Lets see if we continue playing Wood in a similar role, and if others are brought in to play that same role.

 

[bird_man]

The same could be said at the start of last year about Melbourne and the Doggies in 2016.

So given thats its happened twice in 5 years the chances of us winning the premiership this year are much higher than you think.

We just need to find the elite talent on our list then

Melbourne already had plenty there that had shown they were elite. They just couldn't put it all together

 

[SaintsSeptember]

We just need to find the elite talent on our list then

Melbourne already had plenty there that had shown they were elite. They just couldn't put it all together

Then Richo went there and showed them how to do it.

He probably thought that StKilda was like trying to swim with weights on.