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Tom FC

Senior List
Nov 2, 2000
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Probably a lot of people theorised on this before I joined the board, but I noticed in the '2001' ladders post that there seems to be a consensus that St.Kilda will do very well this year, well enough to make the finals for most people, well enough to make the top four for some.

I really can't see this.
Sure, they have Harvey, Burke and Everitt, but I feel that for each of these their best footy is behind them. Their recruits, while impressive on paper, are absurdly overpaid and overrated. A lot of people rave about their young players, though more apologeticaly than anything, but really are they any good? Beetham, Moyle and Knowles are really fairly average considering the chances they've had, and while Baker and Hayes are impressive, I wouldn't rate them as highly as Hasleby, Fraser, Ramanauskas, McDonald, Power, Green or Bruce.
Their forwardline looks a lot more mobile with Hamill and Gehrig, but these players will still rely on the accuracy of the midfielders, which is something most of them (the exception being Harvey) lack.
The biggest problem though, is defence.
Max Hudghton is really the only tall defender of any note, and Steven Lawrence the only genuine back pocket. If their midfielder can't consistently get on top, then one can imagine huge scores being kicked against them.

Sure, they have a proven coach in Blight, but he has never had to coach a side so down as the Saints have been, and he could easily be another Malthouse.

That's why I'll make a guess of 11-14, and never really looking like making the finals, after the first few weeks.
 
Tom FC,

nobody rated Adelaide before Blight went there either. It wasn't a bad strike rate though. 2 premierships in his first 2 years. Can't do much better than that.

I think Everitt has not yet peaked and still has his best years ahead of him provided Blight can get him (and Hall) to focus on football and not his like outside of it.

The recruiting done by St Kilda is undeniable. The only risk is that Blight is not able to integrate them all next year - get them all kicking in the same direction so to speak! Then again Blight is a coaching freak and I believe that this will be acheived.

I placed St Kilda well in my guess, and these are the reasons why.

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Aaarrrgghh! Stupid browser remembering the username/password. You see, my wife joined up as a member last night and I didn't pay any attention to the Username / Password field!

CJH
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Welcome to the jungle

[This message has been edited by fighting fury (edited 15 November 2000).]
 
I agree Tom

They will definitely improve. Blight demands that. Maybe if Blighty says that Spider is the worst ruckman he has ever seen, they will improve further.

They have to change their whole game. They need a style. Certainly Hamill will give them a lot of hardness at the ball and never give in mentality. It won't work if he is the only one though.

Despite their record last year, the Saints never looked like they were embarrassed. They seemed quite content to wander around aimlessly. They did show some spirit here and there (against Carlton and Geelong) but not nearly enough.

Their defence does look sus, they don't even have the fill in players to use anymore. Bet they would have liked to have Shanahan there all along. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I can see a lot more passion in their play this year but that will burn out and the ability may be found lacking at just the wrong time of year.

Bring back Danny Frawley!!!

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mens sana in corpore sano - a sound mind in a sound body
 

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ODNB,

You keep your mits of Danny - he's a tiger now!!!!!!

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This is a hallucination and these faces are in a dream. A computer generated environment; a fantasy island you can do anything and not have to face the consequences.
 
A warning to non-saints fans - This essay may bore you so if you are not interested in reading about the state of the St Kilda Football Club, read at your own risk.

Tom FC,

I guess it is hard for me to plead our case because I am biased. However, I do get to every game in Melbourne including most of our VFL games so in fairness I think I would know a little more about our younger players.

I think you are right that on paper, our backline is looking like the biggest weakness. Honestly, I do not think it is that bad. For a start, I have no doubt that Barry Hall, who I believe has grown up considerably over the past few years, is as good a backman as he is a forward. Fraser Gehrig has been wanting more of a go in the backline for quite a while and he will definitely get a chance now. These two are certainly capable of holding down a key defensive position. Then you have a Max Hudghton, who I thought you unfairly criticised in another thread, that can play on the third tall. I agree with you that he is not suited to a key defensive position but he has spent his whole career playing on opponents that are physically stronger and taller and has perfomed admirably. A kid that may be ready to take the next step is Jason Blake. Making his debut last year as a tall defender in a team performing as badly as ours was a tough initiation. Yet he was able to hold his place for all of the second half of the season. Expect him and perhaps a guy like Troy Schwarze to step up next year.

In regards to small defenders, we now have guys such as Steven Lawrence (sorry lioness22), Brett Voss and Jason Cripps (virtual new recruit) to join Matthew Young, Justin Peckett and Brett Moyle. The backline, particularly in the tall department, does lack depth. Expect one of our new recruits, more than likely Justin Koschitzke, to play in defence in our VFL side. He was a great player at both CHF and CHB in the TAC cup. I just think we have a bit to work with there. Particularly with Malcolm Blight who is an attacking coach and will do his utmost to ensure that our forward line scores as much as possible.

I realise that it was easy for Tim Watson to continually mention the development of the "kids" and that it can be seen as a cop out. However, some of these kids are amongst some of the more exciting we have had. Brett Moyle was a first year player that begun the year as a rookie listed player and ended the season racking up 25 - 30 possessions a game. (And getting a 3 suspension for charging Travis Johnstone). For someone so young and inexperienced to stand out amongst a team playing such disappointing football was an exceptional effort. Unlike Moyle who is a hard worker, Cadyn Beetham is a guy that just has natural skill. If he doesn't go on to have a distinguished AFL career, I will be shocked. Baker is a good tough player who may develop into a run with player and Lenny is a guy who has been likened to a young Robert Harvey. They are tough shoes to fill. Don't forget Riewoldt and Koschitzke either, who may take a year to develop before gaining regular selection.

I put us in 6th place on the 2001 ladder however I am just looking at a year of solid improvement. We have finally began to bridge the gap between the older talent and younger players by recruiting some middle aged players. Whether it comes together next year, I don't know. I will just say now that the football department have done the right thing in trying to turn the clubs fortunes around.


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Fortius Quo Fidelius
 
Saints will be better in 2001 with Blight as coach and with the players they have picked up. But according to calculations done on their form from last season (see usenet news), an improvement of as much as three goals each and every game still won't see them off the bottom of the ladder.

Three goals per game improvement is a lot. Almost too much to ask even of Blight.

BTW, just one goal improvement per game from 2000 would see Crows in sixth place by these same calculations! Yet no-one on this site seems to be picking that.

Perceptions in footy can be very deceiving.

So yes, I can see a big improvement in form for Saints in 2001, but unfortunately that may not be enough to get them even one place up the ladder.
 
Firstly, Sainter, can I say that you sound like a proud, passionate and loyal follower of your club, and so obviously I respect you and your opinions.

However, I really think that you're clutching at straws when you talk about your backline.
What you are basically proposing is that Barry Hall and Fraser Gehrig, two players who have spent most of their careers in the forwardline and have become notorious for their lack of consistency or discipline, will become St.Kilda's numbers one and two defenders. Of course, this worked with the mighty Lions and the even mightier Justin Leppitsch, but is by no means a sure thing.

I agree that Hudghton is basically a third defender, yet as far as I can see he is expected to carry the candle for the Saints' tall defence.

As for small defenders, obviously Steven Lawrence is a good get, but Brett Voss is a forward, not a defender, and the form of Peckett, Young, Cripps and Moyle will have to improve greatly if they are to even hold down a spot in the first 22. Peckett and Young had absolute shockers this year.

I'll concede that Moyle is a good player, though I doubt there'll be too many repeats of his game at the SCG, which was excellent.
Baker also looks like a good prospect, but I'm not really convinced about Beetham. The thing is, all these players got 10-15 possessions a game in the worst side in the league this year, so it is difficult to objectively judge exactly what they have acheived.

Being such an avid Saints' fan, I suppose you would have a better understanding than me, but at this stage I would say sixth is far too optimistic, as it would mean finishing above three of Essendon, Carlton, Melbourne, Kangaroos, Brisbane, Western, Hawthorn and Sydney, all of whom I rate much higher than the Saints.

Still, they have the whole season to prove me wrong.
 
Tom,

I think everyone here has underestimated the improvement of Barry Hall over the past two years. It is easy to dismiss any of our players form because of the poor performances of the team as a whole but he has been a revelation. To Tim Watson's credit, Hall has completely turned his lifestyle and discipline around (His only report from the last two years was a very dubious headbutt charge where he received 1 week). He was probably more consistent than the majority of our other players. And the most important point is that he was recruited as a Centre Half Back and most of our supporters believe he is a far better defender than forward.

As for Gehrig, I am certainly not going to try and tell you that he is not an inconsistent player. However, he has expressed a desire to play as a defender and he will certainly get an opportunity. Along with Hudghton, I think we have three pretty good tall defenders. And like I told you earlier, watch out for Jason Blake.

I'm not denying that we are suspect down back in regards to talls. Although I think you have completely overlooked our strength which looks like being our forward line. We may concede some high scores however due to our recruting we are now capable of posting some high scores ourselves. Blight is synonymous with having sides that play attacking football.

Peckett and Young were both very poor this year. Having said that, Blight coached against them in 1997 when both had excellent seasons. Cripps has hardly played a game in the past 3 years because of injury so I think you have made a mistake in saying he needs to improve. I read in an article that Brett Voss will be given a go off the half back line. Where ever he plays, he won't be on the bench and in and out of the side like he has put up with in the past. Brett Moyle was in his first year. What more can a youngster do in his first year, considering the disappointing performances of his more experienced teammates? Just mark down Cadyn Beetham as a future star. In fact, I'll put my reputation on the line and say he will finish top 3 in next years Norwich Rising Star (I think he played 9 or 10 games, if he played one more he is ineligible).

Tom, unlike yourself I cannot be impartial and I make no apologies for being one-eyed. Maybe I am talking more through hope than logic. Whatever the case, we will both have to wait and see

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Fortius Quo Fidelius
 
TomFC
Considering where we've come from it's pretty easy to be optomistic about next year.
Given the evenness of the competition it's bloody impossible to predict anything with confidence, even bomber supporters would have some doubts about next season.
I reckon a spot in the eight is achievable and from there on, if a bit of luck goes the right way, who knows.
I'm sure I'd be accused of playing with myself if I talked about a flag, however when our next one comes along...........
ah sweet dreams

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FQF
 
Good on you Tom FC,

I can hardly blame any saints fan for being upbeat about 2001, as a Lions supporter 1998 we went through the same experience. However I think a high finish is beyond them.

Brisbane bounced back after 1998 because they had a quality list already. 1 years recruiting does not make up for a crappy list, no matter how spectacular the recruits seem.

Tom FC hit it on the head - they are way overvalued. In a market where demand wayyy outstripps supply, a good (not great) player who goes on the market suddenly finds themselves tripling in value overnight.

Where was Gherig & Hamill & Lawrence in October, not in Ireland where the best players were!

The Saints will have to compete against other improving clubs, Richmond - with a fit playing list they are finally looking like finalists. Sydney - also will almost certinally improve this year.
 
Thanks for the support InTheBack! You're absolutely right about supply and demand for AFL players.

I should point out that I'm not really unbiased; as I mentioned earlier I have a brother who never shuts up about St.Kilda, so I don't really like them any more than I like my brother!
Just quickly on Barry Hall, sainter, it so happens that my brother is a Barry Hall fan too; it seems most St.k fans are. I have actually seen a fair bit of him, and while he can definitely take a contested mark, I've never seen him beat any of the league's best defenders, and I don't think I've ever seen him win the ball on the ground. I seriously question his ability to play as a top class defender, and I think that, unlike Leppitsch, he won't have the same cleanliness of disposal and ability to rebound from defensive 50.
 
Cheers Grendel
Whilst I'm here enjoying a bit of off-season speculation & banter, I can't bring myself to chest thumping and categoric statements.
If any of us knew what next week held, let alone next season, we be off to the lotto kiosk/races/bookies ASAP.

To the doubters
Barry Hall CAN play footy, 3 goals (I think) in one quarter in a Grannie speaks for itself.

[This message has been edited by karnaby (edited 29 November 2000).]
 

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That thread didn't bore you Grendel?

I was worried that my messages would have put everyone to sleep so I thought I would include a warning to all non-saints fans just in case.

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I put the hawks in 5th place in my ladder. I would be very surprised if the development over the last few years will be ruined by a poor performance next year. As for competing with the Essendon's and Melbourne's, I am not 100% sure. But the hawks are a developing team and are still improving which can't be said about a lot of teams.

Tom

Despite not playing too much footy in the backline in recent years, most of us are under no doubt that Hall's best position is in defence. Who knows, Blight may play him in the forward line? He is actually pretty effective when the ball is down. He attacks the ball like very few others. He has the ability to completely run through opponents legitimately and has surprisingly good agility. But again, I know his ability but whether he can put it all together consistently is what we are both wondering.

In the back,

I agree with you. There is no doubt that Hamill and Gehrig are earning more than they deserve at this stage of their careers. However, that is not the perspective that I choose to look at.

We were last with only 2 wins. Rather than just fade away into oblivion, the football club have gone all out in an attempt to turn the football club around by targeting the best coach and players available. And we have succeeded. Yes, they may be earning more than they deserve but let's face it, finishing last is hardly going to give us any bargaining power. Obviously we had to offer far more than a higher placed club would in order to attract them.

Besides, I would like to think they are being paid in advance, not overpaid.
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Fortius Quo Fidelius
 
First of all, to sainter - you're forgiven. THIS TIME!!!!!!
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lol

I think the saints will definitely improve next season, but whether that automatically means finals is anyone's guess, wait and see.
 
sainter mate, im never bored by well constructed posts. These are the best type of theads imho. Good logic all round with no slanging from anyone. Hopefully when the real stuff starts there will be lots more like it!

Cheers
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ps, did you get to the Octoberfest?
 

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