Stadium deals - what, how, when - why we need a new one and the SA footy paradigm shift happening

raptalia

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Think this is appropriate in here, Vale Keith Bradshaw, CEO of the SACA after being the first non English CEO of the MCC.

The SACA have always had a good relationship with Port. Did a deal to play home games with them at AO in 1975-76. Past CEO John Harnden made sure that the SMA CEO was independent of both SACA and SANFL and not handed to Leigh Wicker. ex SACA president Ian Mclachlan went into bat for us first to get us to Adelaide Oval in the '00's when things were sh*t at Footy Park, and then during the redevelopment negotiations and is a member of the Chairman's Club coterie group.

Keith Bradshaw I've been told has done a few good things with Port as well, during his tenure, as indicated in the short article on Port's website that says in one paragraph - Keith was an outstanding administrator, a great leader and visionary, and a friend of the Port Adelaide Football Club.

I have often thought about Big Bob McLean, ex state cricketer, ex secretary of the Port Adelaide Cricket Club the 6 months he wasn't working hard as secretary of the Port Adelaide Football Club and his relationship with the SACA and Bradman, and probably why in the late 60's he wasn't put on the SANFL's Management Committee to find a home ground for the SANFL. Big Bob was on just about every other major SANFL committee.

raptalia I have been meaning to bump the Big Bob Mclean gets inducted into the Australian Football HoF thread to ask you about Port's relationship with the SACA and Bradman, given you have written a few things over the years on the cricket board about Bradman and Fos Williams - and by connection assume Big Bob was also part of that relationship.



There was definitely a connection between Don Bradman and the PAFC although how deep it ran is a matter of conjecture. Bradman admired Fos' achievements and his ability to keep a sporting team at the top for so long. It went further than that though. I was in the Port Club one afternoon when a suit came up to me and asked if John Cahill was about. I called Tim Evans over as he was Bar Manager in those days. The guy in the suit explained that he was Don Bradman's private secretary and that Bradman had a lunch appointment with Jack. I reckon that was about 1996 just after Port had been granted a place in the AFL. I think Bob McLean definitely had a role in the relationship between Bradman and the PAFC but I am unsure how deep it went. Bradman was pretty guarded about his private life and it took 60 years for Bradman to consent to a one on one interview with Ray Martin. He was also Chairman and a Board member of 16 different public companies so there may be long lasting connections there. Wasn't Bradman on the Board of SA brewing at one stage? If so that would be a good start as the PAFC would have been a long running customer.
 

Papa G

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Burningleviathan

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If we are going well after we open up they better revise this.
Bad enough to be masked even if we all double vaxxed but limited crowd seems to serve no purpose
 

Doctor Feel

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Our business is informed that over 36,000 flights are booked into SA from Vic and NSW for the week of the 23rd. COVID is gonna come thick and fast. A lot of businesses are going back to full WFH arrangements till after Christmas. Will be interesting to see where we are in Jan etc. I think the gov is working with the model that COVID will be reasonably present for some time.
 

Burningleviathan

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Our business is informed that over 36,000 flights are booked into SA from Vic and NSW for the week of the 23rd. COVID is gonna come thick and fast. A lot of businesses are going back to full WFH arrangements till after Christmas. Will be interesting to see where we are in Jan etc. I think the gov is working with the model that COVID will be reasonably present for some time.
Eep. I'm being ordered back into work in town.
 

RussellEbertHandball

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This is the modelling the government is working from. Below after the link is a cut and paste from the last 1/3rd of Spurrier's executive summary, modelling done by Adelaide Uni signed off by Prof. Joshua Ross School of Mathematical Sciences and Dr Thomas Prowse School of Biological Sciences with assistance from Mr Dylan Morris, School of Mathematical Sciences The University of Adelaide.

Their modelling is based on - "In all scenarios borders are opened (to double-vaccinated individuals) at 80% vaccination coverage and vaccination is assumed to continue to be rolled-out based on projections of recent vaccination rates until an age group reaches c. 95% vaccination coverage, and it is assumed that the policy measures remain in place throughout the period of 300 days."

The 20 page report and the exec summary links are at

PHSM = Public Health and Social Measures.

Modelling is an iterative process and three scenarios are the focus of this report:

1. Opening borders at 80% vaccination rate in South Australia and maintaining current PHSM.
2. Opening borders at 80% vaccination rate in South Australia and maintaining current PHSM, but removing mask wearing requirements.
3. Opening borders at 80% vaccination rate in South Australia and maintaining current PHSM including masks, but allowing higher risk activities for double-vaccinated people (using vaccine passports and assuming 75% compliance).

KEY FINDINGS:

Scenario 1: Maintaining current PHSM (i.e., Current Restrictions)
 Under this scenario, the model suggests that South Australia will be able to manage the ward and ICU demand from COVID-19 infections generated in the community.
 The chance of an outbreak – that is averaging more than 100 cases per day over any three day period – is estimated to be 27%.
 In the event of an outbreak, this scenario is estimated to be manageable with respect to hospital capacity:

o Peak Ward Occupancy – 36 beds (range 21, 78) (note 1) and extremely small chance of demand exceeding 200 ward beds
o Peak ICU Occupancy – 9 beds (range 5, 19) and extremely small chance of demand exceeding 30 ICU beds; and
o Total Deaths (over the 300 days) – 13 individuals (range 4, 51).
o Peak Ward Occupancy and Peak ICU Occupancy for those aged 0-11:

 Peak Ward Occupancy (0–11 years) – 7 beds (range 2, 21)
 Peak ICU Occupancy (0–11 years) – 1 beds (range 0, 5).

Scenario 2: Relaxing restrictions from current PHSM - by removing mask mandates in general settings but keeping all other public health restrictions in place
 The chance of an outbreak is estimated to be 64%.
 In the event of an outbreak, this scenario is estimated to present risks to being able to manage cases in particular with respect to ICU capacity:

o Peak Ward Occupancy – 70 beds (range 23, 203) – and a 3% chance of demand exceeding 200 Ward beds
o Peak ICU Occupancy – 18 beds (range 6, 47) – and a 20% chance of demand exceeding 30 ICU beds and
o Total deaths (over the 300 days) – 55 individuals (range 6, 186).

Scenario 3: Relaxing restrictions from current PHSM – by introducing the use of Vaccine Certificates (with 75% compliance to this requirement) allowing higher-risk activities by fully-vaccinated individuals
 The chance of an outbreak is estimated to be 84%.
 In the likely event of an outbreak, this scenario is estimated to present risks to being able to manage cases, in particular with respect to ward and ICU capacity:

o Peak Ward Occupancy – 351 beds (range: 24, 585)– and an 85% chance of demand exceeding 200 Ward beds o Peak ICU Occupancy – 72 beds (range: 6, 119) – and an 87% chance of demand exceeding 30 ICU beds
o Total Deaths – 315 individuals (range: 8, 424)

note 1 median (95% confidence interval)
 
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Papa G

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This is the modelling the government is working from. Below after the link is a cut and paste from the last 1/3rd of Spurrier's executive summary, modelling done by Adelaide Uni signed off by Prof. Joshua Ross School of Mathematical Sciences and Dr Thomas Prowse School of Biological Sciences with assistance from Mr Dylan Morris, School of Mathematical Sciences The University of Adelaide.

Their modelling is based on - "In all scenarios borders are opened (to double-vaccinated individuals) at 80% vaccination coverage and vaccination is assumed to continue to be rolled-out based on projections of recent vaccination rates until an age group reaches c. 95% vaccination coverage, and it is assumed that the policy measures remain in place throughout the period of 300 days."

The 20 page report and the exec summary links are at

PHSM = Public Health and Social Measures.

Modelling is an iterative process and three scenarios are the focus of this report:

1. Opening borders at 80% vaccination rate in South Australia and maintaining current PHSM.
2. Opening borders at 80% vaccination rate in South Australia and maintaining current PHSM, but removing mask wearing requirements.
3. Opening borders at 80% vaccination rate in South Australia and maintaining current PHSM including masks, but allowing higher risk activities for double-vaccinated people (using vaccine passports and assuming 75% compliance).

KEY FINDINGS:

Scenario 1: Maintaining current PHSM (i.e., Current Restrictions)
 Under this scenario, the model suggests that South Australia will be able to manage the ward and ICU demand from COVID-19 infections generated in the community.
 The chance of an outbreak – that is averaging more than 100 cases per day over any three day period – is estimated to be 27%.
 In the event of an outbreak, this scenario is estimated to be manageable with respect to hospital capacity:

o Peak Ward Occupancy – 36 beds (range 21, 78)1 and extremely small chance of demand exceeding 200 ward beds
o Peak ICU Occupancy – 9 beds (range 5, 19) and extremely small chance of demand exceeding 30 ICU beds; and
o Total Deaths (over the 300 days) – 13 individuals (range 4, 51).
o Peak Ward Occupancy and Peak ICU Occupancy for those aged 0-11:

 Peak Ward Occupancy (0–11 years) – 7 beds (range 2, 21)
 Peak ICU Occupancy (0–11 years) – 1 beds (range 0, 5).

Scenario 2: Relaxing restrictions from current PHSM - by removing mask mandates in general settings but keeping all other public health restrictions in place
 The chance of an outbreak is estimated to be 64%.
 In the event of an outbreak, this scenario is estimated to present risks to being able to manage cases in particular with respect to ICU capacity:

o Peak Ward Occupancy – 70 beds (range 23, 203) – and a 3% chance of demand exceeding 200 Ward beds
o Peak ICU Occupancy – 18 beds (range 6, 47) – and a 20% chance of demand exceeding 30 ICU beds and
o Total deaths (over the 300 days) – 55 individuals (range 6, 186).

Scenario 3: Relaxing restrictions from current PHSM – by introducing the use of Vaccine Certificates (with 75% compliance to this requirement) allowing higher-risk activities by fully-vaccinated individuals
 The chance of an outbreak is estimated to be 84%.
 In the likely event of an outbreak, this scenario is estimated to present risks to being able to manage cases, in particular with respect to ward and ICU capacity:

o Peak Ward Occupancy – 351 beds (range: 24, 585)– and an 85% chance of demand exceeding 200 Ward beds o Peak ICU Occupancy – 72 beds (range: 6, 119) – and an 87% chance of demand exceeding 30 ICU beds
o Total Deaths – 315 individuals (range: 8, 424) 1 median (95% confidence interval)
Option 3 every day of the week.
 

RussellEbertHandball

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Option 3 every day of the week.
Option 3 in full is
3. Opening borders at 80% vaccination rate in South Australia and maintaining current PHSM including masks, but allowing higher risk activities for double-vaccinated people (using vaccine passports and assuming 75% compliance).

AO for Test cricket ( and any other event until they make any further change) has gone with;
* 75% capacity, fully vaccinated, wear mask for 7 hours.
 

Expat power

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Having to wear masks at a place where everyody is double vaxxed is like wearing 2 frangers whilst rooting your missus who's on the pill after you've had a vasectomy.
Not really, but good attempt at trying to be funny and slightly offensive. Keep at it, you’ll get there!
 

Papa G

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Nothing screams confidence in the vaccine to those on the fence like measures like these!
100% capacity for the Melbourne Test. Lol.

I can't wait to tell my Grandkids as they sit in quiet awe and ask "Hey Grandpa, what was it like in Adelaide during the great Pandemic of 20/21?", "Well kiddies, 4 people, all aged over 80, are attributed with dying from the dreaded Covid in that terrible 2 year period, it was such a scary time".
 

chiwigi

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100% capacity for the Melbourne Test. Lol.

I can't wait to tell my Grandkids as they sit in quiet awe and ask "Hey Grandpa, what was it like in Adelaide during the great Pandemic of 20/21?", "Well kiddies, 4 people, all aged over 80, are attributed with dying from the dreaded Covid in that terrible 2 year period, it was such a scary time".
Wait, you’re sad that you have to tell your grandkids that everything was pretty much fine and not many people died?
 

Iwish

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Victoria is getting 1000 cases a day and is going full crowds at 90% vaxxed. I don't trust sa health or the government to do the same when we get to 90%.
We will be sitting at about 100 cases per day which is the prediction after we open up. Sa health will be scared like they always are even though 90% of those 100 cases will be the unvaxxed. I don't trust nicola and friends I think we could be sitting at 35000 for the footy season as well and masked too😠
 

HinkleysHeroes

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sh*t like this will see larger protests in this state. Victoria has seen the light that once vax rates are up there is nothing else they can really do to warrant over the top restrictions. We should not even require masks right now.
 

malcheski

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Victoria is getting 1000 cases a day and is going full crowds at 90% vaxxed. I don't trust sa health or the government to do the same when we get to 90%.
We will be sitting at about 100 cases per day which is the prediction after we open up. Sa health will be scared like they always are even though 90% of those 100 cases will be the unvaxxed. I don't trust nicola and friends I think we could be sitting at 35000 for the footy season as well and masked too😠
They need to stop reporting case numbers in total and only report cases that require hospitalisation. The vast majority of cases the patient is asymptomatic (especially if vaxxed) so reporting total cases is completely misleading to how dangerous/debilitating the virus is. But in typical Adelaide fashion we will sh*t the bed at the sign of increase in case numbers and will end up being the only locked down state again.
 

RussellEbertHandball

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Victoria is getting 1000 cases a day and is going full crowds at 90% vaxxed. I don't trust sa health or the government to do the same when we get to 90%.
We will be sitting at about 100 cases per day which is the prediction after we open up. Sa health will be scared like they always are even though 90% of those 100 cases will be the unvaxxed. I don't trust nicola and friends I think we could be sitting at 35000 for the footy season as well and masked too😠
They slipped in a nice one on Monday when they announced the opening up. Its not 90% of 16+ its 90% of 12+

1637218073726.png



That means 79,000 more individuals have to get a 1st jab and 246,000 who got the 1st jab have to get the 2nd one in SA. Then that is supposed to get us to no masks. Technically masks mandates should be removed for outdoor activities inc watching sports if the next part of the graphic below is accurate.

But you just know with the northern hemisphere in the middle of winter in January, when we probably hit 90% of 12+ year olds they will come up with excuses;

* look at what is happening in the northern hemisphere - we need 90% with booster 3rd jabs.

* there is a new variant, we need 90% with booster 3rd jabs.

* the vaccine is available for 5 to 11.99 year olds in January, so it will include 90% of them as well, that's another 150,000 double jabs - no make that triple jabs needed by then.


1637218361316.png
 

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