Racing Stakes Day 2018

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TBellicious said:
Redkirk Warrior was deadset awful in the jumpout he had. Plus the stable are tinkering with his gear for Saturday's race, blinkers off winkers on first time. Feels like they're trying something to get him going.
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Needs a trip down the beach

#nowutimsyain
 
Well Oaks day was a whole lot of meh! Did the gentlemanly thing multiple times I suppose on ladies day coming 2nd..... ;)

Early thoughts on stakes day:
R2. Lucky for All - will brain them

R3. Ringerdingding - will shorten on the day

R4. Warranty E/W

R5. Lord Fandango E/W

R6. Savvy Coup

R7. Kemantari for win and US Navy Flag E/W

R8. Pass.... Have Latrobe antepost at 16's will leave at that

R9. Order of Command


Morphettville race 3 no.1 - Buskers Ballad
 

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don't think he will but Kementari would be nice for me personally.

down the straight Redzel looks overs even to me. i think Pierata first time down the straight is about right but i'd have Redzel ahead on consistency but wouldn't shock if Pierata nailed him.

$12 absurd for his Oz runs but surely U S Navy flag is due to improve and straight course might make that improvement rapidly.

i would be thinking the 2 faves shorten and the rest blow out closer to race time.

0 thoughts on the mackinnon apart from the hearty laugh at $1.50 seperating the VRC and Irish Derby Winners.
 
HeathComeBack said:
Is this the first time the carnival has finished without the 1400m Handicap as the last? USually called the Carnival Stakes or something like that.
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Yes this is the new race they have introduced - the Grand Handicap - trying to replicate some of the big straight handicaps in the UK I think.

Not sure how horses were qualified to run in it or weather its just an open BM 80
 
you know it's a down year when we don't even have the worlds best sprinter.

first Australian isTrapeze Artist 123 and Redzel/Redkirk down at 121

Pierata our only chance i'd say.
 
Better Loosen Up said:
Best way to play that race I think
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Put it this way very skinny in the quaddie.

I’m come around to not trying to get Redzel beaten. I’ve learnt my lesson last year in this race. It’s just a good horse.
 
FallingLiefs said:
you know it's a down year when we don't even have the worlds best sprinter.

first Australian isTrapeze Artist 123 and Redzel/Redkirk down at 121

Pierata our only chance i'd say.
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we still have the best sprinters. I would bet on them to beat the overseas walkers any day but they are just of low quality right now. If Hay List was around now, we would be talking about him in Black Caviar terms
 

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Rc1 Al Passem bet of the day for mine. 4yo on the way up, rock hard fit and ran behind some good horses earlier in the Spring.

Rc2 I'm with Danon Roman. Meets Lucky For All better at the weights this time. Lycurgus over the odds, class horse of the race and up to 2000m and away from the Valley now 2nd up will be thereabouts.

Rc3 Yulong January. The Rainier/Wild Planet form is very good for a race like this. Tipping weight may be too much for Long Leaf. Enbihaar put in a couple ripper runs as a 2yo and should be thereabouts.

Rc4 Widgee Turf a model of consistency and you know you will be in the finish. I expect Spectroscope down from Sydney to be thereabouts as well...and how can I forget to a have couple bob eachway on my old 'mate' So Si Bon

Rc5 Race of the Carnival with all the Aussie stayers here, its nearly a case of Weir lotto and I have gone Gallic Chieftain. 2lengths to Prince of Arran and not far behind Youngstar in the Caulfield Cup should be pretty good form for what is essentially a Melb Cup consolation.

Rc6 a bit of a lottery but I think I will go with a trio of 4yo mares, Sheezadashing who got close to Youngstar in the Winter, and Luvaluva who was probably rated higher than Youngstar 6 months ago and finally finds a suitable race - her 4 starts this prep were not races for her. Temple of Bel under the odds but should be thereabouts too.

Rc7 Redzel is the sprint king. I don't think Redkirk will knock him off this time. If So Si Bon is my old 'mate' Kementari is my new 'mate' and the way he finished off last start has me along the ride again.

Rc8 Blair House should be a certainty to beat everything in this field that is 4yo+ and has raced in Aust before. Small saver Extra Brut at that weight. Latrobe gets in stiff with the weights so willing to ignore.

Rc9 Shouldn't bet but I am a degenerate gambler and will have had a few froffies so my only hope is I don't waste too much $$ on Beacon because he's tapping at the door waiting to be let in as a 'mate' like So Si Bon and Kementari.
 
FallingLiefs said:
you know it's a down year when we don't even have the worlds best sprinter.

first Australian isTrapeze Artist 123 and Redzel/Redkirk down at 121

Pierata our only chance i'd say.
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Lol god you spruik utter garbage at times - how can he be our best chance? Nowhere near our best sprinter - couldn't event get an everest slot FFS - best performances a couple of wins over the Monsta!

Just got to get over your Redzel hate which has cost you a bucketload over the last two years
 
iluvparis said:
Lol god you spruik utter garbage at times - how can he be our best chance? Nowhere near our best sprinter - couldn't event get an everest slot FFS - best performances a couple of wins over the Monsta!

Just got to get over your Redzel hate which has cost you a bucketload over the last two years
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calm down, chance inferring not-certain. only one with a profile that could go past 124. I think it's on the low end scale of being a chance this weekend.

do you want me to say even stupider like Redzel will be the best sprinter in the world and go up 3lb on his PB after this despite being start 28 and well exposed at top level, now going down the straight on likely firm surface.

i know which is more likely to happen.

i've said redzel looks overs, Pierata only one in field looking like he could go to another level hence the $5.50.
 
Would never believed that the sire War Front has 4 horse in the sprint WFA Race. A couple of them don't belong in a benchmark 64. Spirit of Valor is flying though so is a place chance. Redzel wins by default. Distinct lack of speed yet again. Wouldnt be surprised if Invincible Star held on better tomorrow as its the only other on pacer and they generally walk in straight races anyway.
 
FallingLiefs said:
calm down, chance inferring not-certain. only one with a profile that could go past 124. I think it's on the low end scale of being a chance this weekend.

do you want me to say even stupider like Redzel will be the best sprinter in the world and go up 3lb on his PB after this despite being start 28 and well exposed at top level, now going down the straight on likely firm surface.

i know which is more likely to happen.

i've said redzel looks overs, Pierata only one in field looking like he could go to another level hence the $5.50.
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He has $5.50 as he has been massively overpriced off the same race In Her Time was last year and the fact Redzel isn't rated by the time muppets. Redzel is much more likely to put up a world class performance than Pierata ever will. You always fall for the trap that just because a horse is lightly raced it is open to HUUUUUUUUUGE improvement when that is almost never the case. Especially with a fully exposed 4yo tried over a range of distances
 
iluvparis said:
He has $5.50 as he has been massively overpriced off the same race In Her Time was last year and the fact Redzel isn't rated by the time muppets. Redzel is much more likely to put up a world class performance than Pierata ever will. You always fall for the trap that just because a horse is lightly raced it is open to HUUUUUUUUUGE improvement when that is almost never the case. Especially with a fully exposed 4yo tried over a range of distances
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100% agreed. Redzel wins and wins well
 
Not 100% sure where the ratings came from earlier in this thread. I've found 2017 and 2018 Global Timeform Ratings and based on those I have the following thoughts:

Our sprinters are clearly better than our miler/mile and a quarter horses. Would anybody dispute this?
Therefore that Redzel only peaked 126 and Happy Clapper/Humidor peaked 129 is a joke.

If Happy Clapper/Humidor are spot on at 129, then Redzel should have been more like 132.

If Redzel is spot on at 126 than Happy Clapper should be more like 123.
 
LukeParkerno1 said:
HC’s placings to Winx would have rated highly though.
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Yes his placings would have they were good runs. But 129 is Sunline and Northerly level and higher than Grand Armee and Saintly and Takeover Target etc.
Thats a big problem because Happy Clapper doesn't light a candle to those horses.

Thats why its a fallacy Winx is the best ever. No, shes as good as every other past great but had greater benefit with 3yos retiring.
 
AvantGardener said:
Yes his placings would have they were good runs. But 129 is Sunline and Northerly level and higher than Grand Armee and Saintly and Takeover Target etc.
Thats a big problem because Happy Clapper doesn't light a candle to those horses.

Thats why its a fallacy Winx is the best ever. No, shes as good as every other past great but had greater benefit with 3yos retiring.
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Lol what 3yo's retired that would have been competitive with Winx. Menari? :D:D:D
 
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