Starz Turnbull Stakes punting guide

starz

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Thread starter #1
Coming off a 100% strike rate in the Makybe Diva Stakes where I rated Marasco a short odds on favourite at $1.65 while everyone else laughed and had him much bigger odds, he won easily.
I also had Zipping running strongly to get a place with Apache Cat rounding off an easy trifecta.

Turnbull stakes is a race in 5 and there won't be much between them.
There will only be a fair pace with the big guns all getting back and running home in waves hitting the line together Haradasun, Zipping, Efficient, El Segundo with Marasco leading them in.

I'm giving it to Oliver to counter barrier 15. He's a winning big race jockey and rides Haradasuns last ever win here by a nose in a blanket finish.

Zipping's jockey Nikolic is injured with a sprained ankle, he's not in the same league as Oliver or even Arnold, but the value still lies with Zipping at $4.50+ to run a place. Devil Moon is silly odds with TAB at $7, she is up in class by 3-4 lengths.

True odds:
Haradasun 3.80
Marasco 4.70
Zipping 4.70
El Segundo 5.30
Efficient 8.00
==========
Eskimo Queen 20
Devil Moon 25
Rest between 50/1 and 150/1

Compare those true odds to TAB's false fixed odds unders market.

TAB FIXED ODDS
EL SEGUNDO $3.60 $1.57
HARADASUN $4.20 $1.71
MARASCO $6.00 $2.11
DEVIL MOON $7.00 $2.33
ESKIMO QUEEN $10.00 $3.00
EFFICIENT $11.00 $3.22
CINQUE CENTO $12.00 $3.44
ZIPPING $17.00 $4.55
MOLOTOV $21.00 $5.44
DOURO VALLEY $35.00 $8.55
TAWQEET $51.00 $12.11
BLUTIGEROO $51.00 $12.11
BLUE MONDAY $71.00 $16.55
GALLIC $151.00 $34.33
SCENIC SHOT $151.00 $34.33
P/L: +746.5
Best Bets:
Haradasun 15 units eachway
Zipping to place 20 units @ 4+
 

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Ron

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#4
Oh yet another race where Haradadud can be pumped up only to fail again when the pressure is applied.
Lucky his master MF isn't racing because then it might get real embarrassing for him.

Oh and ES in a canter.
 

Almost Famous

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#5
Coming off a 100% strike rate in the Makybe Diva Stakes where I rated Marasco a short odds on favourite at $1.65 while everyone else laughed and had him much bigger odds, he won easily.
The fact that he won doesnt justify your $1.65 rating. It was an embarrassing attempt at framing a market regardless of the result.
 

sethlad

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#7
Lucky Apache Cat's not in this race,2nd up you had him $6 & he ran $2.2
A race in 5,thanks for that insight.
Time for that WFA gun Zipping to show us his power....

Are you as confident here as your GF prediction of "Port at the 18.5 line"? Only 100+ points out.
Very selective memory there Starz,if youre gunna start threads praising your abilities to find odds on winners,
at least give all your recent bet results.

seth
 

Ricketts

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#8
Strange race, Marasco out of form, El Segundo has had 3 runs so it's time for him to drop off, doesn't like Flem either, Harada i don't rate much, that leaves Efficient, hopefully he doesn't get lost out the back in a slow race.
 

starz

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Thread starter #9
Lucky Apache Cat's not in this race,2nd up you had him $6 & he ran $2.2
A race in 5,thanks for that insight.
Time for that WFA gun Zipping to show us his power....

Are you as confident here as your GF prediction of "Port at the 18.5 line"? Only 100+ points out.
Very selective memory there Starz,if youre gunna start threads praising your abilities to find odds on winners,
at least give all your recent bet results.

seth
Hardly selective, if you want to see all my tips you can go through the archives, my Brownlow tips were solid with a 4.25 club votes winner and profit. A rough preliminary odds draft for the Memsies done on Tuesday before scratchings was a bit off but no losing tips there and the MD Stakes was bang on.

People can track my results with the p/l challenge if they want, that's what it's there for - transparency.
 

starz

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Thread starter #10
The fact that he won doesnt justify your $1.65 rating. It was an embarrassing attempt at framing a market regardless of the result.
You don't get it do you?
I'm posting true odds, not what I think bookies will offer.
So rating Marasco a $1.65 shot was spot on.
 

Almost Famous

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#11
No my friend, its you who doesnt get it. Marasco was never anywhere near a true $1.65 chance, thats the point. As I said, it was an embarrassing attempt and only confirmed your complete lack of knowledge of the subject.
 

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Almost Famous

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#13
And that comment proves even more conclusively that you dont have a clue. Heres a tip for you buddy, the end result doesnt justify the rating. I could have come out and said Marasco was a $1.02 chance. So would I have been right when he won comfortably? Of course not.
 

starz

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Thread starter #14
I'm pricing a race on how i see it panning out ok, it's really not that hard to understand.
Your 1.02 analogy is just silly.

I'm sure everyone else gets it, this discussion doesn't need to go any further.
 

Almost Famous

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#15
I would expect someone who doesnt understand basic probability to find it silly. And yes, Im sure everyone does get it - you are a punting novice with little idea about framing markets.
 

starz

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Thread starter #16
My early pics would be at odds, CINQUE CENTO and ZIPPING, very good eachway bets, i believe anyway.
Zipping is a fantastic price just to run a place at $4.50+
The other chances are those odds to win.


I'll post a clip of the 2006 Turnbull stakes tomorrow.
 
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#17
I am hearing very good noise from LW's camp so if you fancy Zipping and Efficient get in early on those fix odds. It will certainly give us a clearer picture on their chances for the MC.
 

starz

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Thread starter #19
Final True Odds Market
Haradasun 3.50
Zipping 4.60
Marasco 4.80
El segundo 6.20
Efficient 8.0
Eskimo Queen 25
Devil Moon 40
Rest 50-150

Haradasun wins narrowly paying 5.3+, Oliver the difference gets his win count up keeping pace with Williams and Beadman who are already on the board with feature wins. Fastest finishing Zipping in second with Marasco close up ahead of El Segundo and Efficient.

Final bets p/l: +746.5
Haradasun win 10 units
Haradasun place 20
Zipping win 10 @ 17+
Zipping place 30 @ 4.5+
 

starz

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Thread starter #20
As promised here is the 2006 G1 Turnbull stakes won by Sphenophyta
Look for the run of Zipping from 2 lengths last.

[YOUTUBE]f6g0OuZqLg4[/YOUTUBE]
 

d-mac3276

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#22
As i've said since last spring i will b backing the rising star Efficient in everything from 2000 m upwards for the spring and his latest run has done nothing to deter me.

Was a huge run last start and was the run of the race flashing home for 4th.
Couldn't wait for him to get back to Flemington and will b on him all day tomorrow, lets just hope this bloody rain stays away so we can see a cracking race.

GO THE FISH
 

starz

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Thread starter #23
Here is the summary of the other value bet of the day.
Surfside Christmas in Race 6 showing $15 to win and $4.2+ place fixed odds

UCI Stakes G2 1400
Betting: Good

True odds
Surfside Christmas 2.90 :thumbsu:
Maslins Beach 5.0
Vormista 5.5
Bellini Rose 15
Maloose 17
Rest 30-120

Compared to TAB's False fixed odds market
VORMISTA $2.80 $1.42 :thumbsdown:
MASLINS BEACH $6.00 $2.17
MALOOSE $10.00 $3.11
BELLINI ROSE $13.00 $3.82
SURFSIDE CHRISTMAS $13.00 $3.82 :thumbsu:
HIDDEN STRINGS $15.00 $4.29
LIKE IT IS $18.00 $5.00
EVILWEB $18.00 $5.00
DYNA MYTA $18.00 $5.00
OXIGENADA $18.00 $5.00
SOVEREIGN MISS $26.00 $6.88
MY ONLY HOPE $31.00 $8.05
BROLAGO $31.00 $8.05
PANTENNY $35.00 $9.00
EL PAUJI $61.00 $15.11
PLAYWIN $151.00 $36.29
Bets:
Surfside Christmas 10 units win, 30 place
 

fearlessone77

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#24
WHy dont you start up one of your tipping sportsbet comps starz. You know the ones, where its you posting all your results and blowing smoke up your own arse for a couple of pages until you realise no-one else is interested in your crap and stop only to start another one 2 months later.
 
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