Starz Turnbull Stakes punting guide

(Log in to remove this ad.)

starz

Premiership Player
Joined
Nov 18, 2004
Posts
4,680
Likes
1
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Thread starter #27
Bolters pinched another Group 1
Wipeout day for us at Flemington (and 90% of punters i suspect)
Made a small profit from the top selection in the Turnbull Haradasun.

On the surface it’s a bad result and a bad call.
The two 15/1 chances didn't get the job done.

If you want to look below the surface;
Does that mean Rubiscent is better than Miss finland? Hardly
Scenic Shot & Devil Moon better than El Segundo & Zipping? Hardly
Let’s wait for the big ones before we get carried away.

Let's see how the big guns h2h performed.

Matchups..............Winner:
Zipping v Haradasun = Haradasun takes it, nice ride by Olly.
Zipping v Efficient = Zipping easily as predicted.
Zipping v El Segundo = Zipping fights back and takes half a length off ES in the slower ground to win
Zipping v Marasco = Zipping very easily.

Cox Plate form is a bit up in the air but i expect class to prevail.
Miss finland, Zipping, Haradasun, El Segundo and Devil Moon the only chances.
 

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 15, 2001
Posts
7,006
Likes
1,336
Location
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
#28
Interesting spin there Starz

Devil Moon is obviously a WFA horse,can accelerate.
Both Zipping & Efficient cant,any stayer can peel off a 1/4 when they go mad in front,doesnt make them a GP 1 WFA horse

We all know youre in love with Zipping but how many times does he have to fail at WFA before you admit he aint a WFA horses arse,good stayer at best.
Actually looked more a Melb Cup horse than Efficient today.

As for the Cox Plate,how would Zipping possibly beat D Moon on todays run?

seth
 

tige19

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Feb 13, 2003
Posts
18,196
Likes
17,035
Location
Mar-a-lago
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
NUFC, Orlando, Packers, Trump
#29
Interesting spin there Starz


As for the Cox Plate,how would Zipping possibly beat D Moon on todays run?

seth
Thats the thing mate Zipping wont ever run past Devil Moon, her kick is as good as any going around atm, when she moves into gear their is not a horse going around that can match her, this was proven at MV the other week and again at WFA level today.

Miss Finland is a superstar, probably the best we have seen since the Diva but gee she would want to be on her game to out gun DM.
 

starz

Premiership Player
Joined
Nov 18, 2004
Posts
4,680
Likes
1
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Thread starter #30
No bias, it's an assesment of the selection compared to the favourites.

No accelaration is just silly El Segundo, Zipping and Miss finland are the fastest finishers in the land based on sectionals. Todays race was SW+P, his performance in his 3 WFA races have been as good if not better than the winner considering.

Keep in mind punters, the rail was out 9m, the outside half of the track where the longshot 1st and 2nd ran was 3 lengths faster than the inside where El Segundo and Zipping were.
 

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 15, 2001
Posts
7,006
Likes
1,336
Location
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
#31
Zipping:4 runs at Gp 1: No placings
5 runs at Gp 2: 1 win (2500m),2 placings.

He's a WFA B grader,even Nikolic laughed when they asked him about the Cox Plate.

seth
 

starz

Premiership Player
Joined
Nov 18, 2004
Posts
4,680
Likes
1
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Thread starter #32
Zipping:4 runs at Gp 1: No placings
5 runs at Gp 2: 1 win (2500m),2 placings.

He's a WFA B grader,even Nikolic laughed when they asked him about the Cox Plate.

seth
Zipping beat El Segundo today is he a B grader too?
ES beat Haradasun last start.
You must think Rubiscent is better than MF.
Is Devil Moon the best or second best chance to win the Cox Plate?

Last years Turnbull, Zipping finished fifth from 2 lengths last another 5 strides he wins. I guess he was the fifth best run of that race too?
 

discoduck

All Australian
Joined
Aug 11, 2006
Posts
673
Likes
6
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
RFNC, EFC, GAFC, WFNC
#33
what do you do now if you're lloyd. concede you're not going to win the cox plate this year, and run the three of them in the caulfield cup? i hope not - i'm banking on annenkov making the field
 

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 15, 2001
Posts
7,006
Likes
1,336
Location
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
#34
The horses you mentioned are winners at this level.
ES is a multiple Gp1 winner,Zipping is not,
His only Gp win is a 2500m handicap.

He is competive at WFA.......if he gets it run to suit
Running ok is not the point,"another 5 strides he wins"
But he does not win

Thats why he's a B grader at this level.
He's a handicapper who can run 1 sectional off a fast pace
Slow pace today,he was up the front but couldnt quicken

C Cup was his race but Lloyds obsessed with the Cox plate.

seth
 

starz

Premiership Player
Joined
Nov 18, 2004
Posts
4,680
Likes
1
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Thread starter #36
El Segundo is top line in the betting and won 2 weeks ago.
Zipping beat him today re-passing him on the inside.
Talk all you want but results aren't everything.

This is where we differ,
You think finishing position is everything.
I think there's a hell of a lot more to it than that.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 15, 2001
Posts
7,006
Likes
1,336
Location
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
#37
"Results arent everything"

Honestly,you are beyond help.
You masquerade as a punting guru with your silly P/L threads & then try to justify your inadequacies with "results arent everything"

If "results arent everything",how about ceasing the ridiculous threads?
Surfside Christmas $2.90 against a horse coming off a Gp1 2nd at $5.50
You're really not helping yourself with this rubbish.

seth
 

tige19

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Feb 13, 2003
Posts
18,196
Likes
17,035
Location
Mar-a-lago
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
NUFC, Orlando, Packers, Trump
#38
El Segundo is top line in the betting and won 2 weeks ago.
Zipping beat him today re-passing him on the inside.
Talk all you want but results aren't everything.

This is where we differ,
You think finishing position is everything.
I think there's a hell of a lot more to it than that.
You make no sense mate, no sense at all. The facts are sunshine that when push comes to shove Zipping does not win at Group level be it at G2 or G1 he just doesnt do it, he plods along and runs a battlers race to finish just better than midfield, he has done it since day dot. Granted he is up to G1 level no doubt, he is a competitor that is evident however he DOES NOT HAVE THE TURN OF FOOT to be a serious contender, his past 2 seasons have proven that.

Now if I was Lloyd I would be setting him for the Caulfield Cup, I dont think he would win it but I think as it is suited to the 1 paced stayers he would be within a hald descent shot to run in the top 4 or 5 you never know he could pull something out of the bag and snatch it. In saying that if Kavanagh wanted to go for an easy kill he could forget the Cox plate and throw Devil Moon straight into the CC.

But in all seriousness could you really see Zipping beating home Dolphin Joe and Light Vision anyway?? both where very impressive for mine today and look likely to go to the CC. Can Smerdon pay a late entrance fee to nominate for the Cup?? I thought I heard something about it today, if so Light Vision would be a good one to get on early, is certanly not out of his depth against the current CC nominations.
 

starz

Premiership Player
Joined
Nov 18, 2004
Posts
4,680
Likes
1
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Thread starter #39
In betting terms p/l results are almost everything.
In racing, finishing positions only tell a small part of the story.
You obviously don't get that.
I already said, not a good day for my 15/1 chances and framing market to 90%.

Anyway, this is going around in circles a bit so i'll leave you all with this.

If Devil Moon and Scenic Shot were positioned where El Segundo and Zipping were and not in the fast lane they do exactly the same thing.
 

starz

Premiership Player
Joined
Nov 18, 2004
Posts
4,680
Likes
1
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Thread starter #40
You make no sense mate, no sense at all. The facts are sunshine that when push comes to shove Zipping does not win at Group level be it at G2 or G1 he just doesnt do it, he plods along and runs a battlers race to finish just better than midfield, he has done it since day dot. Granted he is up to G1 level no doubt, he is a competitor that is evident however he DOES NOT HAVE THE TURN OF FOOT to be a serious contender, his past 2 seasons have proven that.

Now if I was Lloyd I would be setting him for the Caulfield Cup, I dont think he would win it but I think as it is suited to the 1 paced stayers he would be within a hald descent shot to run in the top 4 or 5 you never know he could pull something out of the bag and snatch it. In saying that if Kavanagh wanted to go for an easy kill he could forget the Cox plate and throw Devil Moon straight into the CC.

But in all seriousness could you really see Zipping beating home Dolphin Joe and Light Vision anyway?? both where very impressive for mine today and look likely to go to the CC. Can Smerdon pay a late entrance fee to nominate for the Cup?? I thought I heard something about it today, if so Light Vision would be a good one to get on early, is certanly not out of his depth against the current CC nominations.

What proof do you have that he doesn't have a turn of foot?
He's had 2 runs in real terms in almost 11 months and jarred up in the CC last year but still clocked the quickest closing sectional from last in the rose bush.
The CC is not his race, the Cox plate and MC are.

We saw what Zipping did to Maldivian first up in 4th gear and Dolphin Joe and Light Vision are 5 lengths off Zipping and ES.

anyway, let's see this proof.
 

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 15, 2001
Posts
7,006
Likes
1,336
Location
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
#41
Nikolic quoted on R & S:
"He ran good,he was dour from the 500 to the 400m
He raced like a stayer"


You keep backing him though,Im sure you know more than the jockey.

seth
 

__Ron_

All Australian
Joined
Jul 14, 2007
Posts
745
Likes
0
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
St Kilda
#42
Cox Plate form is a bit up in the air but i expect class to prevail.
Miss finland, Zipping, Haradasun, El Segundo and Devil Moon the only chances.
Maldivian or Master O'Rielly entered for the Cox Plate? Of the horses you mentioned, i would only touch Miss Finland and Devil Moon... :)
 

d-mac3276

Club Legend
Joined
Mar 8, 2006
Posts
2,909
Likes
470
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Essendon,Storm,La Lakers
#43
I don't give 2 sh-its what anyone says but todays race proves nothing for the Cox Plate as El Segundo has always had 1 or 2 flat runs every campaign i've seen of him but won't deter me getting on him for the Cox Plate as he was the same last year leading into the Cox Plate and was only beaten by a veteran star.
Although i think the MISS will b the one to beat and Devil Moon if they go that path NEVER EVER RIGHT OFF THE EL SEGUN-ZI
 

Almost Famous

Team Captain
Joined
Feb 25, 2007
Posts
422
Likes
0
Location
Im Around
AFL Club
Collingwood
#44
The horses you mentioned are winners at this level.
ES is a multiple Gp1 winner,Zipping is not,
His only Gp win is a 2500m handicap.
He is competive at WFA.......if he gets it run to suit
Running ok is not the point,"another 5 strides he wins"
But he does not win

Thats why he's a B grader at this level.
He's a handicapper who can run 1 sectional off a fast pace
Slow pace today,he was up the front but couldnt quicken

C Cup was his race but Lloyds obsessed with the Cox plate.

seth
Your assessment is spot on seth. He is not a group 1 WFA horse. If he was going to win one then yesterday was it as he is most suited at Flemington. He looked a good EW chance prior but just didnt produce.

Im not really sure of the relevance of starz mentioning that he beat El Segundo though. ES has never gone nearly as well at Flemington as he does at other tracks, the pace was well and truely against him yesterday and he was also in the wrong part of the track. Using that run to assess El Segundos chances in the Cox Plate is a complete waste of time.
 

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 15, 2001
Posts
7,006
Likes
1,336
Location
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
#46
AF,you'll know this as no-one else seems to.
Dont you have to be a Gp 1 winner to get a run in a Cox Plate?

seth
 

Almost Famous

Team Captain
Joined
Feb 25, 2007
Posts
422
Likes
0
Location
Im Around
AFL Club
Collingwood
#47
Seth,
I dont think there is a rule written in stone about it but Im fairly sure the MVRC likes all runners to at least have some group 1 form. I believe that was why Elvstroem was not allowed to run as a 3yo. Not 100% sure on their position though.
 

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 15, 2001
Posts
7,006
Likes
1,336
Location
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
#48
Ok,I remember them leaving out Cole Diesel off a C Cup win.
I guess in a weak year they need to have flexibility.
Just wondering how Lloyd can be so confident of Zipping getting a run with his woeful Gp record?

seth
 

Almost Famous

Team Captain
Joined
Feb 25, 2007
Posts
422
Likes
0
Location
Im Around
AFL Club
Collingwood
#49
Yes that threw me a bit too. I wouldhave thought there would have been more than enough horses with group 1 wins/placings to get a decent sized field (8-10). Mind you with the sway Lloyd WIlliams has he could probably get them to consider putting a colac maiden winner in the field.
 
Top Bottom