Analysis State-based AFL premiership droughts: Will South Australia top the list soon?

[GC2015]

2026 marks the 22nd season since South Australia won their last AFL premiership with Port Adelaide in 2004. The all-time state-based VFL/AFL premiership drought is currently held by New South Wales and that was snapped in 2005 when the Swans finally captured their first premiership since relocating to Sydney in 1982. So this means if neither the Crows or Power win the premiership by the end of next season then South Australia will hold the record for the longest state-based AFL premiership drought. The top 10 state-based AFL premiership droughts looks like this with three doughts currently active:

No.	State	Premiership drought	Years
1	New South Wales	23 years	1982-2004
2	South Australia	22 years	2005-
3	Queensland	20 seasons	2004-2023
4	New South Wales Queensland	14 seasons	2013- 1987-2000
6	Western Australia	11 seasons	1995-2005 2007-2017
8	Western Australia	8 seasons	2019-
9	New South Wales South Australia Victoria	6 seasons	2006-2011 1991-1996 2001-2006

 

[crows dude]

There are 10 Victorian sides so maths suggests there will be a Victorian team in the GF most years. Only two SA sides so much harder for an SA side to make it.

 

[GC2015]

There are 10 Victorian sides so maths suggests there will be a Victorian team in the GF most years. Only two SA sides so much harder for an SA side to make it.

Fair enough to be way behind Victoria, but if you put South Australia up against the non-Victorian states then they find themselves in last place when it comes to Grand Finals:

No.	State	Grand Finals (Years)
1	New South Wales	9 (1996, 2005, 2006, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2019, 2022, 2024)
2	Western Australia	8 (1991, 1992, 1994, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2015, 2018)
3	Queensland	7 (2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2023, 2024, 2025)
4	South Australia	5 (1997, 1998, 2004, 2007, 2017)

 

[The_Reaper]

Fair enough to be way behind Victoria, but if you put South Australia up against the non-Victorian states then they find themselves in last place when it comes to Grand Finals:

No.	State	Grand Finals (Years)
1	New South Wales	9 (1996, 2005, 2006, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2019, 2022, 2024)
2	Western Australia	8 (1991, 1992, 1994, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2015, 2018)
3	Queensland	7 (2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2023, 2024, 2025)
4	South Australia	5 (1997, 1998, 2004, 2007, 2017)

Unlike NSW/QLD the AFL doesn’t bend over backwards to help SA out

 

[GC2015]

Unlike NSW/QLD the AFL doesn’t bend over backwards to help SA out

So how do you explain the discrepancy between SA and WA? SA were in the league when WA made their first GF and there was only two seasons where WA had an extra team when compared to SA, yet WA have made 60% more GFs that SA have made.

 

[The_Reaper]

So how do you explain the discrepancy between SA and WA? SA were in the league when WA made their first GF and there was only two seasons where WA had an extra team when compared to SA, yet WA have made 60% more GFs that SA have made.

If Dom Sheed misses is there a discrepancy?

 

[GC2015]

If Dom Sheed misses is there a discrepancy?

It wouldn't make a difference because West Coast would have still played in the GF that year...

 

[WhyAmIHere]

Gold Coast clingy tightly to Brisbane’s coattails on this highly relevant stat.

 

[GC2015]

Gold Coast clingy tightly to Brisbane’s coattails on this highly relevant stat.

As are Fremantle and GWS with just 1 GF appearance each. 7 for West Coast and 8 for the Swans.

 

[Big_Birdy]

Fair enough to be way behind Victoria, but if you put South Australia up against the non-Victorian states then they find themselves in last place when it comes to Grand Finals:

No.	State	Grand Finals (Years)
1	New South Wales	9 (1996, 2005, 2006, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2019, 2022, 2024)
2	Western Australia	8 (1991, 1992, 1994, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2015, 2018)
3	Queensland	7 (2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2023, 2024, 2025)
4	South Australia	5 (1997, 1998, 2004, 2007, 2017)

They aren't really being compared vs states are they though?

More the SA clubs are pretty even, and make reasonable sense to put them in the same boat. And the other states have one strong club and one actual or virtual non contributor to those stats....

 

[parano1a]

Tasmania is leading this stat until the Devils win their maiden flag.

 

[GC2015]

They aren't really being compared vs states are they though?

More the SA clubs are pretty even, and make reasonable sense to put them in the same boat. And the other states have one strong club and one actual or virtual non contributor to those stats....

Could you make the argument that the closer margin we see in South Australia has actually cost the state flags? Up until recently, if you were an AFL player and you wanted to live in WA then there's a fairly good chance you would pick West Coast for a multitude of reasons. Likewise Brisbane and Sydney in Queensland and New South Wales.

The default preference in South Australia doesn't seem to be as obvious and I think you could argue that's potentially cost the state in terms of from compiling a premiership team at either club. You only have to look at the hypothetical South Australian Origin team to see how strong an AFL team would be if they were in a position to be the default go to club for any South Australian player.

 

[Big_Birdy]

Could you make the argument that the closer margin we see in South Australia has actually cost the state flags? Up until recently, if you were an AFL player and you wanted to live in WA then there's a fairly good chance you would pick West Coast for a multitude of reasons. Likewise Brisbane and Sydney in Queensland and New South Wales.

The default preference in South Australia doesn't seem to be as obvious and I think you could argue that's potentially cost the state in terms of from compiling premierships team at either club. You only have to look at the hypothetical South Australian Origin team to see how strong an AFL team would be if they were in a position to be the default go to club for any South Australian player.

Without going into detail, it seems like something you could certainly argue.

Freo seem to have been able to trade as well as West Coast, especially recently.

The fact that West Coast have been able to convince anyone at all to be traded there recently says somethin though I guess

 

[Purple Suit]

2026 marks the 22nd season since South Australia won their last AFL premiership with Port Adelaide in 2004. The all-time state-based VFL/AFL premiership drought is currently held by New South Wales and that was snapped in 2005 when the Swans finally captured their first premiership since relocating to Sydney in 1982. So this means if neither the Crows or Power win the premiership by the end of next season then South Australia will hold the record for the longest state-based AFL premiership drought. The top 10 state-based AFL premiership droughts looks like this with three doughts currently active:

No.	State	Premiership drought	Years
1	New South Wales	23 years	1982-2004
2	South Australia	22 years	2005-
3	Queensland	20 seasons	2004-2023
4	New South Wales Queensland	14 seasons	2013- 1987-2000
6	Western Australia	11 seasons	1995-2005 2007-2017
8	Western Australia	8 seasons	2019-
9	New South Wales South Australia Victoria	6 seasons	2006-2011 1991-1996 2001-2006

You need to add in the Vic's drought of six seasons.

2001-2006

Then the current one

2024-next 5-10 seasons as the Northern clubs win everything before they realise the monster they have created with acedmies.

 

[GC2015]

Without going into detail, it seems like something you could certainly argue.

Freo seem to have been able to trade as well as West Coast, especially recently.

The fact that West Coast have been able to convince anyone at all to be traded there recently says somethin though I guess

Yeah and obviously it's impossible to have a complete monopoly on talent with the way the draft works, but I don't think it's a stretch to suggest most current AFL players that grew up in WA would have likely supported West Coast in their younger years. Patrick Cripps often talks about how he frew up idolising guys like Cousins and loved the Eagles in his younger years and even though he never chose to go home to WA, I'm fairly sure he would've chosen West Coast if he had been convinced to leave Carlton.

Don't get me wrong, West Coast have a great history of drafting and developing players so I don't want to undersell that, but they've certainly also benefitted from WA players who have wanted to go home and chose not to sign with Freo e.g. their most recent premiership included WA players traded in from interstate like Jetta, Kennedy, Yeo, Cripps. We've seen the preferencing come into play in the northern states as well with recent examples like Buddy joining the Swans when he had a significant offer from the Giants and Beams joining the Lions despite being from the Gold Coast.

Interesingly, the head-to-head records in the local derbies (mostly historically in WA now*) appear to confirm it's a much closer margin in SA when compared to other states as well:

• Showdown: Crows 30 - 28 Power
• Western Derby: Eagles 33 - 28 Dockers*
• Sydney Derby: Swans 20 - 11 Giants
• QClash: Lions 22 - 8 Suns

* Fremantle have won 8 of the last 9 Western Derbies and were well behind with a head-to-head record of 32-20 back in 2021 before West Coast started to really struggle on field. Like you suggested, even though West Coast have been highly uncompetitive in recent years, they've still been able to recruit players wanting to go home like Baker and Brockman as well as others like Graham and Owies.

You need to add in the Vic's drought of six seasons.

2001-2006

Then the current one

2024-next 5-10 seasons as the Northern clubs win everything before they realise the monster they have created with acedmies.

You might want to take a second look at the post you've quoted because the Victorian drought is there.

It's only been 2 years since Collingwood were the premiers so I don't think it's worth adding that. Maybe in a few years from now if non-Vic clubs keep winning the flag like we saw between 2001-06.

 

[The_Reaper]

It wouldn't make a difference because West Coast would have still played in the GF that year...

And Adelaide played on the year before?

 

[GoldbergsGold]

Tasmania is leading this stat until the Devils win their maiden flag.

If it remains 23 seasons, they'd only be leading it if they don't win one by 2051.

 

[crowman2]

Fair enough to be way behind Victoria, but if you put South Australia up against the non-Victorian states then they find themselves in last place when it comes to Grand Finals:

No.	State	Grand Finals (Years)
1	New South Wales	9 (1996, 2005, 2006, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2019, 2022, 2024)
2	Western Australia	8 (1991, 1992, 1994, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2015, 2018)
3	Queensland	7 (2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2023, 2024, 2025)
4	South Australia	5 (1997, 1998, 2004, 2007, 2017)

Probably below explains a lot

​

31.3% nsw

25.6% vic

20.5% qld

10.8%. Wa

7%. Sa

2.2% tas

1.8%

0.9%

​

 

[glengowan]

SA has captained or coached the last 3 AFL premierships. Always giving and not enough taking.

 

[GC2015]

Probably below explains a lot

​

31.3% nsw

25.6% vic

20.5% qld

10.8%. Wa

7%. Sa

2.2% tas

1.8%

0.9%

So how does WA having 10% of the national population result in the second most Grand Final appearances of all the non-Vic states?

SA has captained or coached the last 3 AFL premierships. Always giving and not enough taking.

Probably just furthers the theory that both SA clubs struggle to accumulate the majority of available homegrown talent that has allowed other states like WA to qualify for many Grand Finals. The mostly even split of homgrown talent willing to head home and either choose the Crows or Power does seem to have hurt both teams in September. Add Lachie Neale or Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera to the Crows' current line up and there's a good chance they would at least qualify for the GF, but the same could probably be said if Horne-Francis, Rozee etc were at the Crows or vice versa if Port had Dawson, Rankine etc.

 

[WhyAmIHere]

Have you tried multiplying the number of drought years by the number of teams in each state at the time to give a 'weighted' response?

 

[GC2015]

Have you tried multiplying the number of drought years by the number of teams in each state at the time to give a 'weighted' response?

New South Wales
Combined years in AFL: 58 (14 together; 30 Swans only)
Grand Finals: 9
Grand final rate: 15.5% (9/58)

Queensland
Combined years in AFL: 54 (15 together; 24 Bears/Lions only)
Grand Finals: 7
Grand final rate: 12.9% (7/54)

Western Australia
Combined years in AFL: 70 (31 together; 8 Eagles only)
Grand Finals: 8
Grand Final rate: 11.4% (70/8)

South Australia
Combined years in AFL: 64 (29 together; 6 Crows only)
Grand Finals: 5
Grand Final rate: 7.8% (64/5)

 

[WhyAmIHere]

New South Wales
Combined years in AFL: 58 (14 together; 30 Swans only)
Grand Finals: 9
Grand final rate: 15.5% (9/58)

Queensland
Combined years in AFL: 54 (15 together; 24 Bears/Lions only)
Grand Finals: 7
Grand final rate: 12.9% (7/54)

Western Australia
Combined years in AFL: 70 (31 together; 8 Eagles only)
Grand Finals: 8
Grand Final rate: 11.4% (70/8)

South Australia
Combined years in AFL: 64 (29 together; 6 Crows only)
Grand Finals: 5
Grand Final rate: 7.8% (64/5)

As a drought of worst years provided in the OP for premierships:

NSW: 1982 - 2004 23 years. Sydney only (GWS not yet entered). Weighted score: 23
SA: 2004 - present. 22 years. Both clubs. Weighted score: 44
Queensland: 2004 - 2023. 20 years. GCS only from 2011. 20 years Brisbane, 13 years GCS. Weighted score: 33
Vic: 2001 - 2006: 6 years. 10 clubs. Weighted score: 60
WA: 11 years (twice with both clubs). Weighted score: 22

SA still has a long way to go to catch the 60.

 

[GC2015]

As a drought of worst years provided in the OP for premierships:

NSW: 1982 - 2004 23 years. Sydney only (GWS not yet entered). Weighted score: 23
SA: 2004 - present. 22 years. Both clubs. Weighted score: 44
Queensland: 2004 - 2023. 20 years. GCS only from 2011. 20 years Brisbane, 13 years GCS. Weighted score: 33
Vic: 2001 - 2006: 6 years. 10 clubs. Weighted score: 60
WA: 11 years (twice with both clubs). Weighted score: 22

SA still has a long way to go to catch the 60.

That's... a different way to do it. 6 years doesn't really seem like much of a dought compared to 22 years... but if you want to display it that way then go for it. SA still has the second worst drought in that unique way of doing it so that's also telling.

Under your weighted method, SA has 8 years up their sleeve before they surpass Victoria's 2001-06 drought. Even though it may be mathematically correct, I'm not sure many people would accept that a 30 year state drought is directly comparable to another 6 year state drought... but each to their own I guess.

 

[crowman2]

So how does WA having 10% of the national population result in the second most Grand Final appearances of all the non-Vic states?


Probably just furthers the theory that both SA clubs struggle to accumulate the majority of available homegrown talent that has allowed other states like WA to qualify for many Grand Finals. The mostly even split of homgrown talent willing to head home and either choose the Crows or Power does seem to have hurt both teams in September. Add Lachie Neale or Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera to the Crows' current line up and there's a good chance they would at least qualify for the GF, but the same could probably be said if Horne-Francis, Rozee etc were at the Crows or vice versa if Port had Dawson, Rankine etc.

Why do countries with the largest populations not win as many gold medals as those countries with large populations

You don’t have to be a brain surgeon to work it out now do you