Statistical Fact - Debuting 10 players = Finals Success in 6 years

Bazzar

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Thanks to Dan26 on the main board for doing the hard work, but this is worth having here, as we have debuted 9 players and the Goo should be the 10th.

Fascinating statistics. Our 10 look to be of excelent quality, something that has eluded us for as far as i can remember. Going by the stats below, we could be well on track to achieve Bennys 3-0-75

"It's interesting to look at the number of players who debut for a club in a particular year. And the success of failure that comes 6 years later. There are some exceptions, as there always are. Melbourne were so up and down every year from 1997 to 2004 that you couldn't get a read on their "debuts" from 6 years earlier. St.Kilda had the most players debut in 1995 (11) and six years later they were rubbish, but that was more to do with mismanaging their list after making a Gran Final in 1997 with a very young side far sooner than expected, and making some bad decisions.

But for the most part, there is a strong correlation between the teams that debut lots of players having success six years later and the teams that debut the least having failure.

When lots of players debut
12 Sydney players debuted in 1990 (the most that year).... 6 years later they were minor premiers
10 Nth.Melb players debuted in 2001 (the most that year).... 6 years later they finished 4th
9 Essendon players debuted in 1994 (the most that year).... 6 years later they won the flag.
9 Adelaide players debuted in 1999 (the most that year).... 6 years later they were minor premiers
9 WCE players debuted in 2000 (the most that year ).... 6 years later, premiers
8 Collingwood players debuted in 2000 (2nd most that year).... 6 years later, they finished 5th
8 Hawthorn players debuted in 2002 (2nd most the year).... 6 years later they won the flag.
9 Geelong players debuted in 2002 (the most that year) .... 6 years later, they went 23-2
9 Sydney players debuted in 1999 (the most that year).... 6 years later, premiers





When few players debut
1 Essendon player debuted in 2000.... 6 years later they went 3-18-1
1 Brisbane player debuted in 1999.... 6 years later they finished 11th
1 Carlton player debuted in 1996 (the least that year)... 6 years later they finished last
2 Hawthorn players debuted in 2003 (the least that year).... 6 years later they went 9-13.
2 Bulldogs players debuted in 1998 (the least that year).... 6 years later they finished 5-17
2 Bulldogs players debuted in 1996 (2nd least that year).... 6 years later they were 11th
3 Melbourne players debuted in 2001 (2nd least that year)... 6 years later they went 5-17
3 Collingwood players debuted in 1993 (the least that year)... 6 years later, they came last
3 Richmond players debuted in 2001 (2nd least that year).... 6 years later they came last
3 Melbourne players debuted in 2002 (the 3rd least that year)... 6 years later they came last
3 WCE players debuted in 2003 (the 2nd least that year).... 6 years later they were 11th


Six years ago (in 2004) the club that had the most debuts was Collingwood with 10. And in 2010, they look like being a genuine flag contender.

Interesting that St.Kilda only debuted two players in 2004, Yet they still looking like being a good team in 2010. But the Saints also debuted only two in 2005 and two in 2006. I have a feeling that the Saints will hit the wall, probably not in 2010, but 2011 or 2012. You cant debut only 6 players over 3 years without it hitting you about 6 years later.

Having 2-2-2 players debut in 2004-2005-2006 is the lowest I can find for any club over a three year period. "
 

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Final Siren

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#3
So let's see...

RFC Debutantes by Year [genuine debutantes only, not including recycled players]

2004: 6 (3 current): Hartigan, Jackson, Moore, Raines, Roach, Tuck
2005: 6 (4): Deledio, Foley, Meyer, Pattison, Tambling, Thursfield
2006: 6 (3): Howat, Hughes, McGuane, Oakley-Nicholls, Polo, White
2007: 5 (5): Connors, Edwards, Graham, King, Riewoldt
2008: 1 (1): Cotchin
2009: 7 (6): Browne, Collins, Nahas, Post, Rance, Silvester, Vickery
2010*: 8 (8): Astbury, Dea, Griffiths, Martin, Nason, Roberts, Taylor, Webberly

Edit: And why not, some earlier years too:

2003, 6 years before finishing 5-16: 3 (0): Fleming, McGrath, Schulz
2002, 6 years before finishing 11-10: 4 (1): Ednie, Hyde, Newman, Rodan
2001, 6 years before finishing 3-18: 3(0): Coughlan, Krakoeur, Pettifer
2000, 6 years before finishing 11-11: 7 (0): Fiora, Haynes, Mills, Poyas, Vardy, J. White, Zantuck

Conclusion: Not much. Nothing magical about 6 years. We debuted very few players from 2001-2003, which probably did hurt 5+ years later. Have been debuting good numbers since. Shame about 2008.

Edit 2: This doesn't count recycled players (e.g. Hislop, Thomson, Farmer).
 

Greggy

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#4
What's the 6 year success rate like when you debut 4-7 players?

Also lets hope that statistics show that in 8 years time if you debut 1 player you also win the flag.
 

Greggy

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#5
If you use this logic then we will finish bottom up until the end of 2014 because we only had cotchin debut in 2008, then 2 years later we'll win the flag.
 

Bazzar

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2010*: 8 (8): Astbury, Dea, Griffiths, Martin, Nason, Roberts, Taylor, Webberly
I would add 3 game Farmer to the list.

And 3 Debs in 2004 has seen us bottom out in 6 years. so far so good.

5, 1, 6 and 9 in the last 5 years should set us up well in the next 6 years if those stats are backed up.
 

Bazzar

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If you use this logic then we will finish bottom up until the end of 2014 because we only had cotchin debut in 2008, then 2 years later we'll win the flag.
Silly thing to say. Didnt you read the original OPs exceptions
 

Thecho

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#9
In 2008 we only had one debutant in Cotchin*




*Cotchin is another exception to the rule as he is at least five...no..six...nay, eight times any player
 

Greggy

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#10
Silly thing to say. Didnt you read the original OPs exceptions
How's it silly? you're applying the logic only to our list this year, if you apply it to 2008 then we will finish with a poor record in 2014 because we only debuted 1 player that year. To get a true account of what's happening you need to find the stats as to how many players debuted in the 5 years leading up to the success, otherwise the future prediction will be changing every year.
 

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David3030

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#16
Thanks to Dan26 on the main board for doing the hard work, but this is worth having here, as we have debuted 9 players and the Goo should be the 10th.

Fascinating statistics. Our 10 look to be of excelent quality, something that has eluded us for as far as i can remember. Going by the stats below, we could be well on track to achieve Bennys 3-0-75

"It's interesting to look at the number of players who debut for a club in a particular year. And the success of failure that comes 6 years later. There are some exceptions, as there always are. Melbourne were so up and down every year from 1997 to 2004 that you couldn't get a read on their "debuts" from 6 years earlier. St.Kilda had the most players debut in 1995 (11) and six years later they were rubbish, but that was more to do with mismanaging their list after making a Gran Final in 1997 with a very young side far sooner than expected, and making some bad decisions.

But for the most part, there is a strong correlation between the teams that debut lots of players having success six years later and the teams that debut the least having failure.

When lots of players debut
12 Sydney players debuted in 1990 (the most that year).... 6 years later they were minor premiers
10 Nth.Melb players debuted in 2001 (the most that year).... 6 years later they finished 4th
9 Essendon players debuted in 1994 (the most that year).... 6 years later they won the flag.
9 Adelaide players debuted in 1999 (the most that year).... 6 years later they were minor premiers
9 WCE players debuted in 2000 (the most that year ).... 6 years later, premiers
8 Collingwood players debuted in 2000 (2nd most that year).... 6 years later, they finished 5th
8 Hawthorn players debuted in 2002 (2nd most the year).... 6 years later they won the flag.
9 Geelong players debuted in 2002 (the most that year) .... 6 years later, they went 23-2
9 Sydney players debuted in 1999 (the most that year).... 6 years later, premiers





When few players debut
1 Essendon player debuted in 2000.... 6 years later they went 3-18-1
1 Brisbane player debuted in 1999.... 6 years later they finished 11th
1 Carlton player debuted in 1996 (the least that year)... 6 years later they finished last
2 Hawthorn players debuted in 2003 (the least that year).... 6 years later they went 9-13.
2 Bulldogs players debuted in 1998 (the least that year).... 6 years later they finished 5-17
2 Bulldogs players debuted in 1996 (2nd least that year).... 6 years later they were 11th
3 Melbourne players debuted in 2001 (2nd least that year)... 6 years later they went 5-17
3 Collingwood players debuted in 1993 (the least that year)... 6 years later, they came last
3 Richmond players debuted in 2001 (2nd least that year).... 6 years later they came last
3 Melbourne players debuted in 2002 (the 3rd least that year)... 6 years later they came last
3 WCE players debuted in 2003 (the 2nd least that year).... 6 years later they were 11th


Six years ago (in 2004) the club that had the most debuts was Collingwood with 10. And in 2010, they look like being a genuine flag contender.

Interesting that St.Kilda only debuted two players in 2004, Yet they still looking like being a good team in 2010. But the Saints also debuted only two in 2005 and two in 2006. I have a feeling that the Saints will hit the wall, probably not in 2010, but 2011 or 2012. You cant debut only 6 players over 3 years without it hitting you about 6 years later.

Having 2-2-2 players debut in 2004-2005-2006 is the lowest I can find for any club over a three year period. "
Quality post but some people need to get a job or get back to work as its obvious they have way too much time on their hands
 

Spluff

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#17
Because there's not much foundation to it. As Greggy said, if these statistics are to be believed, we'll finish last in a few years because we debuted only one player in 2008, and yet somehow finish up very high only a few years later. It's interesting but it's not something you'd base a plan around, and just say 'well, we debuted a lot of kids, so success is inevitable'.
 

Bazzar

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Because there's not much foundation to it. As Greggy said, if these statistics are to be believed, we'll finish last in a few years because we debuted only one player in 2008, and yet somehow finish up very high only a few years later. It's interesting but it's not something you'd base a plan around, and just say 'well, we debuted a lot of kids, so success is inevitable'.
Those stats clearly show if a team heavily delists and debuts a large amount of players the following year, they have a greater chance of success than one who hangs on and rebuilds gradually. For any one to dismiss it because of one year is really clutching at straws. Why do you think Dimma wants all ours to play this year and get as many games in. Is is it just for fun, or does he have a plan.
 

Spluff

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#19
Those stats clearly show if a team heavily delists and debuts a large amount of players the following year, they have a greater chance of success than one who hangs on and rebuilds gradually. For any one to dismiss it because of one year is really clutching at straws. Why do you think Dimma wants all ours to play this year and get as many games in. Is is it just for fun, or does he have a plan.
What's the difference between one year of few debutants and one year of many? Why is one inadmissible?
 

Bazzar

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What's the difference between one year of few debutants and one year of many? Why is one inadmissible?
I would say the one year of many is the basis of a mini culture change. In our case look at the 13 (excluding Richo) we got rid of last year. The whole look and feel of the team is like chalk and cheese. And just because we have one year of a single debutant dosnt mean we are back to square one.

Also, how many plans, rebuilds and so called other 5 year plans have we had in the last 20 years? The last large lot of new players that we blooded from memory was when KB was coaching. Our best team since then was the 95/96. In your opinion the way we are looking right now do you think we are on the right track, or should we have kept a few from last tear like Bowden Brown and maybe talk Richo in to staying, and only debuting Martin and maybe one or two others?
 

docko911

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#21
Interesting but we shouldn't have to wait 6 years for finals success.
We should be aiming to make finals next year and achieving success the year after. These 10 debutants will just allow us to stay in the top half for a longer period.
 

Mr Magic

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#22
You can use statistics to say anything.

But does this mean if we debut another 10 players next year we have twice the chance???

Since virtually everyone on on GC and GWS will be debuting in 6 years after that the rest of the clubs may as well have a holiday for a year or two. Ha Ha
 
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