Stats observations

[RogersResults]

I make that a total of 10 mistakes Gleeson made in his stats table. Enough to make one ask where the Hell he was getting his data from.

Might be being done manually - no database program used the produce table. The AFL Record Season Guide made a mess of a similiar table in the 2010 edition. I emailed Gleeson to see if he would like some help in the future in getting these things correct - no response as yet.

 

[RogersResults]

This adds up to 93 Wins, but 91 Losses. Clearly the two figures need to match, and that ideally would have been checked before it was released! 93 at least looks to be the correct amount IF it was for wins by 6 points and under.

These are correct figures for margins of 1 to 6 points.

 

[spudmaster]

May have already been mentioned in the 90 odd pages before this one (eek!) but one I find interesting none the less.

If the Western Bulldogs fail to reach the Grand Final this year, they will equal Fitzroys current record of 52 consecutive seasons without a Grand Final appearance (1945 - 1996) with the Doggies sitting second at 51 (1962 - current)

 

[RedmanWasHere]

These are correct figures for margins of 1 to 6 points.

Let's go the other way.

What about the 94-99 point wins from 1987-2010?

 

[RogersResults]

Let's go the other way.

What about the 94-99 point wins from 1987-2010?

Here it is.

Matches played 1987-2010 that were wins with margins of 94 to 99 points.

 

[RogersResults]

May have already been mentioned in the 90 odd pages before this one (eek!) but one I find interesting none the less.

If the Western Bulldogs fail to reach the Grand Final this year, they will equal Fitzroys current record of 52 consecutive seasons without a Grand Final appearance (1945 - 1996) with the Doggies sitting second at 51 (1962 - current)

Fitzroy after their last grand final appearance:
Played 1,070 matches for a match/win percentage of 40.14%
Played 17 finals - won 6 - lost 11 - m/w% 35.29%
Lost 4 preliminary finals - margins - 5,13,19,56 - average margin 23.3
Defeated the eventual premiers in 18 matches.
Defeated the eventual runners-up in 24 matches.

WB/Footscray since their last grand final appearance:
Have played (to R5 2013) 1,126 matches for a m/w% of 44.63%
Have played 29 finals - won 8 - lost 21 - m/w% 27.59%
Have lost 7 preliminary finals - margins - 2,7,10,24,29,64,68 - average margin - 29.1 points .
Have defeated the eventual premiers in 26 matches.
Defeated the eventual runners-up in 16 matches.

 

[RogersResults]

More from the "don't believe the facts and figures on 'professional' websites" department.


Goalkicking: are clubs taking it seriously enough?
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-04-29/goalkicking-are-clubs-taking-it-seriously-enough

The figure for Tony Lockett's goals/behinds scoring percentage is correct all the rest for 2013 teams are not.

Anyone reading the article who would like the correct figures, they are here:
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/seas/2013.html#lad

 

[worbod]

Fitzroy after their last grand final appearance:
Played 1,070 matches for a match/win percentage of 40.14%
Played 17 finals - won 6 - lost 11 - m/w% 35.29%
Lost 4 preliminary finals - margins - 5,13,19,56 - average margin 23.3
Defeated the eventual premiers in 18 matches.
Defeated the eventual runners-up in 24 matches.

WB/Footscray since their last grand final appearance:
Have played (to R5 2013) 1,126 matches for a m/w% of 44.63%
Have played 29 finals - won 8 - lost 21 - m/w% 27.59%
Have lost 7 preliminary finals - margins - 2,7,10,24,29,64,68 - average margin - 29.1 points .
Have defeated the eventual premiers in 26 matches.
Defeated the eventual runners-up in 16 matches.

Using these stats, how do the clubs with the "next best" records stack up, St. Kilda (1914-1964) and South/Sydney (1946-1995), both of whom also achieved half a century without a GF appearance?

 

[Ron The Bear]

Jay Schulz set to join Brent Moloney on Saturday in playing under a seventh senior coach.

 

[RogersResults]

Using these stats, how do the clubs with the "next best" records stack up, St. Kilda (1914-1964) and South/Sydney (1946-1995), both of whom also achieved half a century without a GF appearance?

St Kilda 1914-1964 between grand final appearances:
Played 864 matches for a match/win percentage of 37.96%
Played 6 finals - won 1 - lost 5 - m/w% 16.67%
Lost 1 preliminary final - margin - 30 points
Defeated the eventual premiers in 11 matches.
Defeated the eventual runners-up in 11 matches.
(Both in 1914, 1918, 1925, 1954, 1961)

Sydney/SM 1946-1995 between grand final appearances:
Played 1,017 matches for a match/win percentage of 36.48%
Played 6 finals - won 0 - lost 6
Played 0 preliminary finals
Defeated the eventual premiers in 15 matches. (Carlton on 5 occasions)
Defeated the eventual runners-up in 15 matches. (Collingwood on 5 occasions.)
(Both in 1961, 1970, 1977 (Nth. Melb. twice),1980, 1987, 1988)

 

[35Daicos]

Sydney/SM 1946-1995 between grand final appearances:
Played 1,017 matches for a match/win percentage of 36.48%
Played 6 finals - won 0 - lost 6
Played 0 preliminary finals

Incredible to look at the Sydney/SM record and see they not only went that long without a Grand Final appearance, but that they didn't even win a final in that time. Even in the mid to late eighties with all their star imports playing.

The Western Bulldogs/Footscray during their "barren spell" have at least gone close on quite a few occasions, and given their supporters something to be enthusiastic about.

 

[35Daicos]

Jay Schulz set to join Brent Moloney on Saturday in playing under a seventh senior coach.

I know it's common practice to count the records of fill-in coaches (so I'm not having a go at you, Ron!) but I always wonder about the merit of doing so. Surely on pretty much all occasions when a deputy has taken over from an unavailable senior coach for only a game or two, he would still have been operating under instructions and not "fully in charge" of the team.

Taking that further, if John Longmire had been absent on Grand Final day last year and John Blakey had filled in for him, Blakey surely would not now be considered a premiership coach?! I know Collingwood legend Jock McHale missed a winning Grand Final (and Bob Rush took over) many long years ago. Just my thoughts, anyway.

 

[UpForGrabs]

I know it's common practice to count the records of fill-in coaches (so I'm not having a go at you, Ron!) but I always wonder about the merit of doing so. Surely on pretty much all occasions when a deputy has taken over from an unavailable senior coach for only a game or two, he would still have been operating under instructions and not "fully in charge" of the team.

Taking that further, if John Longmire had been absent on Grand Final day last year and John Blakey had filled in for him, Blakey surely would not now be considered a premiership coach?! I know Collingwood legend Jock McHale missed a winning Grand Final (and Bob Rush took over) many long years ago. Just my thoughts, anyway.

Well, I guess Warren Tredrea (not Matty Primus) is known as a premiership captain, so the reverse should count for coaches I think.

 

[35Daicos]

Well, I guess Warren Tredrea (not Matty Primus) is known as a premiership captain, so the reverse should count for coaches I think.

That's an excellent example to raise UFG, I still see it as being different, however.

 

[RogersResults]

Incredible to look at the Sydney/SM record and see they not only went that long without a Grand Final appearance, but that they didn't even win a final in that time. Even in the mid to late eighties with all their star imports playing.

The Western Bulldogs/Footscray during their "barren spell" have at least gone close on quite a few occasions, and given their supporters something to be enthusiastic about.

The longest Grand Final ‘drought’ for teams that could have gone 50 seasons without playing off for the Premiership, but didn’t.​

​

​

Collingwood 1940-1951: 12 seasons between grand final appearances:​

Played 225 matches for a match/win percentage of 55.11%​

Played 10 finals - won 1 - lost 8 – drew 1 - m/w% 15.00%​

Lost 4 preliminary finals - margins – 2,10,13,65, average margin 22.5 points​

Defeated the eventual premiers in 6 matches.​

Defeated the eventual runners-up in 5 matches.​

(Both in 1945, 1947, 1949, 1951- Geelong twice)​

​

​

Carlton 2000-2012: 13 Seasons between grand final appearances (current):​

Played 295 matches for a match/win percentage of 41.19%​

Played 9 finals - won 3 - lost 6 - m/w% 33.33%​

Lost 1 preliminary final - margin - 45 points​

Defeated the eventual premiers in 2 matches.​

Defeated the eventual runners-up in 6 matches.​

(Both in 2001 –Essendon twice)​

​

Essendon 1925*-1940: 16 seasons between grand final appearances:​

Played 292 matches for a match/win percentage of 47.26%​

Played 5 finals - won 2 - lost 3 - m/w% 40.00%​

Lost 2 preliminary finals - margins – 3,5, average margin 4 points​

Defeated the eventual premiers in 3 matches.​

Defeated the eventual runners-up in 6 matches.​

(Both in 1940)​

​

* No ‘final’ match – ‘grand’ or otherwise in 1924 but Essendon played 3 ‘round robin’ finals to win the premiership​

​

​

Melbourne 1965-1987*: 23 seasons between grand final appearances:​

Played 493 matches for a match/win percentage of 33.37%​

Played 3 finals - won 2 - lost 1 - m/w% 66.67%​

Lost 1 preliminary final - margin 2 points​

Defeated the eventual premiers in 1 match.​

Defeated the eventual runners-up in 5 matches.​

* Melbourne did not play-off for the premiership 1901-1925 but only competed in 22 seasons.​

​

​

Nth Melbourne 1925-1949: 25 seasons without a grand final appearances:​

Played 451 matches for a match/win percentage of 28.27%​

Played 3 finals - won 0 - lost 3 ​

Lost 1 preliminary final - margin 17 points​

Defeated the eventual premiers in 7 matches.​

Defeated the eventual runners-up in 10 matches​

​

Geelong 1898*-1924*: 27 seasons without a grand final appearance. (26 competed in.)​

Played 443 matches for a match/win percentage of 43.91%​

Played 6 finals - won 0 - lost 6 ​

Played 0 preliminary finals.​

Defeated the eventual premiers in 14 matches.​

Defeated the eventual runners-up in 13 matches.​

(Both in 1899,1900,1901,1913 ,1914, 1917)​

​

* No ‘final’ match – ‘grand’ or otherwise in 1897 but Geelong played 3 ‘round robin’ finals to finish runners-up. ​

Missed finals in 1924.​

​

​

Richmond 1983-2012: 30 seasons without a grand final appearance. (Current)​

Played 664 matches for a match/win percentage of 38.55%​

Played 6 finals - won 2 - lost 4 – m/w% 33.33 ​

Lost 2 preliminary finals – 89,68 - average margin 78.5 points​

Defeated the eventual premiers in 6 matches.​

Defeated the eventual runners-up in 9 matches.​

(Both in 1983,1998,2001, 2012.)​

​

Hawthorn 1925-1960: 36 seasons without a grand final appearances:​

Played 650 matches for a match/win percentage of 27.23%​

Played 2 finals - won 0 - lost 1 ​

Lost 1 preliminary final - margin 68 points​

Defeated the eventual premiers in 6 matches.​

Defeated the eventual runners-up in 9 matches.​

(Both in 1940,1957 – Essendon and Melbourne each twice, 1960.)​

​

​

 

[Ron The Bear]

Not sure if I've done this one before.

% of games in which a player was leading or equal leading goalkicker for his team (min. 50 games):

%|Player|Matches|Goals|Clubs|Career|Outright|Equal|Total
\85.27|Hudson, Peter|129|727|Ha|1967-1977|94|16|110
\82.65|Coleman, John|98|537|Es|1949-1954|74|7|81
\82.35|Moriarty, Jack|170|662|Es,Fi|1922-1933|112|28|140
\76.09|Lee, Dick|230|707|Co|1906-1922|125|50|175
\75.44|Lockett, Tony|281|1360|St,Sy|1983-2002|176|36|212
\74.58|Merrick, Bob|59|181|Fi|1919-1926|25|19|44
\73.30|McKenna, Peter|191|874|Co,Ca|1965-1977|112|28|140
\73.03|Wade, Doug|267|1057|Ge,NM|1961-1975|139|56|195
\72.49|Dunstall, Jason|269|1254|Ha|1985-1998|156|39|195
\71.95|Jackson, Mark|82|308|Me,St,Ge|1981-1986|43|16|59
\70.18|Park, Roy|57|146|Un,Me|1912-1915|29|11|40
\69.93|Coventry, Gordon|306|1299|Co|1920-1937|170|44|214
\69.15|Young, Bill D.|94|274|St|1956-1961|44|21|65
\68.21|Mohr, Bill|195|735|St|1929-1941|109|24|133
\66.67|Shelton, Jack F.|57|152|St|1925-1928|26|12|38
\66.06|Modra, Tony|165|588|Ad,Fr|1992-2001|80|29|109
\65.82|Martini, Percy|158|355|Ge,Ri,Ge|1909-1920|65|39|104
\64.42|Fanning, Fred|104|411|Me|1940-1947|53|14|67
\64.06|Evans, Ron B.|64|210|Es|1958-1962|29|12|41
\64.05|Spencer, Jock|153|475|NM|1948-1957|71|27|98
\63.92|Pratt, Bob|158|681|Sy|1930-1946|84|17|101
\63.64|Beasley, Simon|154|575|WB|1982-1989|77|21|98
\63.38|White, Lindsay|142|540|Ge,Sy,Ge|1941-1950|75|15|90
\62.81|Murray, Sel|121|461|NM,Ri,NM|1937-1948|63|13|76
\62.14|Taylor, Brian|140|527|Ri,Co|1980-1990|65|22|87
\61.33|Sumich, Peter|150|514|WC|1989-1997|66|26|92
\61.11|Harker, Harry|54|146|Me|1920-1924|24|9|33
\60.92|Goninon, George|87|289|Es,Ge|1948-1954|43|10|53
\60.74|Lloyd, Matthew|270|926|Es|1995-2009|116|48|164
\60.53|Baker, Charlie|76|122|St|1902-1906|31|15|46
\60.20|Hart, Eddie|98|323|Fi|1941-1951|44|15|59
\60.00|Margitich, George|75|267|Me|1930-1934|34|11|45

Current players:

%|Player|Matches|Goals|Clubs|Career|Outright|Equal|Total
\56.89|Franklin, Lance|167|535|Ha|2005-2013|74|21|95
\55.07|Walker, Taylor|69|163|Ad|2009-2013|29|9|38
\48.31|Riewoldt, Jack|118|281|Ri|2007-2013|40|17|57
\40.95|LeCras, Mark|105|244|WC|2005-2013|29|14|43
\40.25|Brown, Jonathan|236|555|Br|2000-2013|57|38|95
\37.94|Pavlich, Matthew|282|560|Fr|2000-2013|63|44|107
\35.66|Riewoldt, Nick|244|538|St|2001-2013|50|37|87
\31.56|Milne, Stephen|263|553|St|2001-2013|43|40|83
\30.30|Podsiadly, James|66|142|Ge|2010-2013|11|9|20
\30.19|Darling, Jack|53|92|WC|2011-2013|7|9|16
\30.00|Ballantyne, Hayden|70|104|Fr|2009-2013|9|12|21

 

[RogersResults]

Observed in Round 6 2013

• The 3rd closest game up to 1/2 time between two of the round’s opponents.
• A unique score-line in the above match.
• The Bombers best start to a season ever.
• Carlton have had 69 better starts to a season and Collingwood 68.
• Giants scoring up over 50% on last year.
• A new low since 1968 for Essendon.
• Nth Melbourne are 7 times more successful than Port in the close encounters between the two.
• Two ‘firsts’ and two ‘highests’ for Hawthorn since 2008.
• A new League and two new club match-winning records for Geelong.
• Geelong becomes the first in a particular category of winning matches.
• A more than 100% improvement in Fremantle’s winning rate outside of W.A.
• Three new clubs records v Brisbane for the Swans.
• An attendance ‘milestone’ for Carlton.
• A ladder movement for West Coast not seen since 1992.
• Fremantle, Geelong and Hawthorn all have identical quarter WLD records.
• Brisbane have pipped Geelong as the team with the lowest tally of last quarter points.

Detail and more click here.

 

[stemline]

Hawks have conceded under 100 points in their last 13 games. Not bad considering the teams they've played in that time. For a better run for Hawthorn, you have to go back to 1964.

 

[Catsace]

Love reading these summaries R.R....Tell you what, i am getting a bit annoyed with the absolute miracle accuracy against Geelong in 1st quarters this year! So far in the six games as your table shows, Geelong has had 30.10.190 scored against it in 1st quarters this year.....Need someone to put chewy on the boots of the opposition!

Actually looking more into it, Carlton have had sides spray 13.33.111 against them in opening quarters. Given this amazing accurate stat, it's incredible Geelong has gone 6-0 so far, while the Blues are 3-3. Fascinating breakdown there R.R...

 

[RogersResults]

Love reading these summaries R.R....Tell you what, i am getting a bit annoyed with the absolute miracle accuracy against Geelong in 1st quarters this year! So far in the six games as your table shows, Geelong has had 30.10.190 scored against it in 1st quarters this year.....Need someone to put chewy on the boots of the opposition!

Actually looking more into it, Carlton have had sides spray 13.33.111 against them in opening quarters. Given this amazing accurate stat, it's incredible Geelong has gone 6-0 so far, while the Blues are 3-3. Fascinating breakdown there R.R...

Essentially Geelong are winning matches in the 3rd quarter.

The most similiar example is Melbourne in 1965* who were 6-0 relying on the 2nd quarter.
Melbourne's percentages for each quarter were 91.6, 249.3, 94.1, 97.1. Whether Geelong's performance has to do with team management and pacing of the season or some problem, remains to be seen.

Oddities like Geelong's opponents scoring 30.10 in first quarters while Carlton's have scored 13.33 and Hawthorn's 9.25 should even out as more different opponents are played but they could be indicitive of game plans, tactics and fitness levels. There may be statistical analysis of this scoring going on as we assume is also done with the raw counts of contested possessions, inside 50s, clearances etc.

* (In the first 6 games of 1965, St Kilda's opponents amassed at combined total of 4.8 in the 1st quarter - St Kilda scored 18.21.)

 

[RogersResults]

​

The table at the left was was published on the AFL web site ( http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-05-10/blown-leads-and-big-comebacks ) as "Success rate in games decided by 10 points or less (2010 to present)". The correct figures are in the table at the right. The table on the right also uses the convention of draws being regarded as half a win otherwise they would count as a loss.​

​

The "statistics" in the AFL article are credited to Champion Data.​

 

[Catsace]

Just thinking with Geelong in recent years, given now this is the 4th season in six of starting 6-0 or better, there's been quite a few of these 'unbeaten' clashes of note, particularly the St.Kilda game in Rd 14 2009, the Collingwood game Rd 8 2011, and tonight's game where both sides are 6-0.

Anyone able to compile a stat that may identify how many 'unbeaten' clashes there have been....say for a genuine oddity after for example Round 5, where both sides are 5-0 or better? I cannot imagine it happens all that often, as i would hazard a guess that only every other season or so more than one side is unbeaten by about Round 6, let alone two. Think 2008 also saw the Dogs and Cats last a fair while before a loss, but don't think they played each other till later on. Edit....Actually despite all three sides being unbeaten by Round 8, Round 9 saw the famous Collingwood thrashing of Geelong, and the Kangaroos beat the Dogs to end the triumvirate on unbeaten sides bar the Hawks.

 

[RogersResults]

Just thinking with Geelong in recent years, given now this is the 4th season in six of starting 6-0 or better, there's been quite a few of these 'unbeaten' clashes of note, particularly the St.Kilda game in Rd 14 2009, the Collingwood game Rd 8 2011, and tonight's game where both sides are 6-0.

Anyone able to compile a stat that may identify how many 'unbeaten' clashes there have been....say for a genuine oddity after for example Round 5, where both sides are 5-0 or better? I cannot imagine it happens all that often, as i would hazard a guess that only every other season or so more than one side is unbeaten by about Round 6, let alone two. Think 2008 also saw the Dogs and Cats last a fair while before a loss, but don't think they played each other till later on. Edit....Actually despite all three sides being unbeaten by Round 8, Round 9 saw the famous Collingwood thrashing of Geelong, and the Kangaroos beat the Dogs to end the triumvirate on unbeaten sides bar the Hawks.

Tonight was the 5th 6-0 v 6-0 - there aren't too many others. I'll do a complete list soon - or someone else can.

 

[RogersResults]

Matches between undefeated teams - 5 matches and up:

5-0 v 5-0
Round 6 1903: Carlton and Fitzroy were both undefeated but Carlton had only played 4 matches,
their round 2 fixture v Geelong having been postponed to be played in Sydney later in the season.

Round 6 1942: Essendon (2) 10.17-77 v Richmond (1) 11.10-76
(Essendon premiers - Richmond runners-up)

Round 6 1976: Carlton (1) 15.12-102 v Hawthorn (2) 7.20-62
(Hawthorn premiers - Carlton lost preliminary final by 1 point.)

Round 6 1981: Collingwood (2) 22.12-144 v Carlton (1) 12.15-87
(Carlton premiers - Collingwood runners-up)

6-0 v 6-0
Round 7 1959: Carlton (1) 14.15-99 v Nth Melbourne (2) 10.11-77
(Carlton lost the preliminary final - North missed the finals by 4 points and percentage.)

Round 7 1979: Nth Melbourne (2) 16.12-108 v Carlton (1) 15.14-104
(Carlton were premiers - North lost the preliminary final.)

Round 8 1991: West Coast (1) 14.10-94 v Essendon (2) 13.9-87
(West Coast were runners-up - Essendon lost the elimination final.

Round 8 2011: Geelong (2) 8.17-65 v Collingwood (1) 9.8-62
(Geelong premiers - runners-up Collingwood.)

Round 7 2013: Geelong (2) 17.11-13 v Essendon (1) 11.19-85
(?-?)

7-0 v 7-0 to 12-0 v 12-0
Never.

13-0 v 13-0
Round 14 2009: St Kilda (1) 14.7-91 v Geelong (2) 13.7-91
(Geelong premiers - St Kilda runners-up)

 

[RogersResults]

Geelong's 'game plan'.
Lull the opposition into a false sense of security?
Get the opposition to expend their ammunition early?
Rd 1 Hawthorn – 3.7 to 8.7 (10.8 to 4.7 thereafter)
Rd 2 Nth Melb - 5.4 to 12.3 (11.12 to 5.3)
Rd 3 Carlton – 5.5 to 8.4 (13.6 to 7.9)
Rd 4 Sydney – 7.2 to 10.3 (12.8 to 6.4)
Rd 6 Richmond – 5.3 to 8.4 (15.8 to 5.5)
Rd 7 Essendon – 3.5 to 6.8 (14.6 to 5.11)
I doubt there has ever been a sequence of matches like it.
Data from: AFL Tables - Match Scores/Match Stats/Scoring Progression.
(Records of scoring progression are available back to 2008)