Analysis Stats: qualifying finals winners, and the GF

[JaxsonB]

Hi BigFooty fans,

I've been excited about the Eagles' prospects for a while now, and after our awesome win last night, it's gone up another notch. And when I get excited about the Eagles - I look at stats!

Here are the ones I looked at after last night: what winning a qualifying final means in the race to make the GF, and to win the flag. I looked at the winners of qualifying finals since 2000 (when the current finals system was first used), and here are the results:

*27 out of 30 (90%) of qualifying final winners go on to win their preliminary final
*12 out of 15 (80%) of premiers won a qualifying final
*From 07 to 14, every grand finalist has won a qualifying final

These stats indicate two things - firstly, that a team that wins a qualifying final has a huge chance to make the big dance - 90% for the past 15 seasons, and 100% for the past 8. However, the danger sign is that if a team loses a qualifying final but still makes it to the GF, since 2000 all of those teams have won it. However, it should also be noted that 2 of those 3 were the WC/Sydney GFs of 05 and 06, where a lucky kick in either the qualifying or grand finals could have made the stats 1-2 for teams making it to the GF via the long route. With a sample of only 3 games, and two games that were so darn close, my main takeaway from that point is that a team that does still make it to the GF after losing a qualifier is pretty darn good, and at least a solid chance to win.

Moral of these stats: exciting times Eagles fans. We've put ourselves in the box seat to score a ticket to the big show.

 

[nameless]

It's even more important for us as we get such an advantage playing at home.

History is on our side to go all the way, however, Hawthorn are a different team at the MCG, so if we were to meet them again it will be a very different game.
Of course they'd be coming off two trips to Perth in 3 weeks, which is not something Vic teams are used to, so we'd be at an advantage there.