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Stats questions

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Re: Post your stats questions here

esoteric said:
Has any side ever lost an AFL/VFL match when it had three (or more) blokes kick four (or more) goals each?
Click to expand...

No

Edit: I lie. It's happened 27 times, most recently

2008 R15 Brisbane v Essendon http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/games/2008/051920080712.html
2005 R6* Melbourne v Fremantle http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/games/2005/081120050430.html
2002 R17 Melbourne v Port Adelaide http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/games/2002/111320020727.html

* only occasion where three players have kicked 5+ goals in a losing team
 

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Re: Post your stats questions here

[We thought this was appropriate for a footy stats thread ...]

Members on this list might be interested in a site we are developing for predicting the ladders for various football and other sports leagues worldwide. The goal is just to predict as closely as possible the order teams will finish for the current (or upcoming) season in each league.

The website for making predictions is here:

http://psiexp.ss.uci.edu/sportsrank/examples/

We are collecting these predictions because of a research interest in "wisdom of the crowds": the idea that it might be possible to combine predictions from many people, each of whom might be quite a long way from the truth, to form a "group" or "crowd" prediction that is close to the truth.

So, please feel free to enter your predictions for one or more of the leagues we have available. If you would like to leave a "nickname" for any prediction, we will display that, and the final scores, as well as the "group" predictions, once the season is finished, and the results are known!

For leagues that have already started (like European and Nth American football leagues), please get your predictions in quickly, because we will turn those options off before the season is too far advanced.

If you have questions or feedback, feel free to email sportsorter@gmail.com, and we will do our best to respond.
 
Re: Post your stats questions here

sportsorter said:
We are collecting these predictions because of a research interest in "wisdom of the crowds": the idea that it might be possible to combine predictions from many people, each of whom might be quite a long way from the truth, to form a "group" or "crowd" prediction that is close to the truth.
Click to expand...

Interesting. There is anecdotal evidence from horse racing supporting a different angle - that the opinion of a lone 'expert' is as likely to be accurate as that of the overwhelming consensus; e.g. if nine experts select the favourite to win and a tenth selects another runner, the tenth person's opinion is as likely to be correct as the majority view. This idea came from an American text where racing authors are, generally speaking, far more scientific in their approach than their Australian counterparts.
 
Re: Post your stats questions here

S "Thinks He's Daicos" J said:
Why have you got this link not leading to the address it states?
Click to expand...

Sorry. My mistake. I can see that makes it look dodgy.

I originally had a "tiny URL" to make posting more compact, but somehow the preview post turned part of this tiny URL to "***"s, and broke the link. So, I cut-and-pasted the full URL over it. It seems the corrupted tiny URL survived underneath, which I didn't notice or intend.

Anyway, the full URL works fine

http://psiexp.ss.uci.edu/sportsrank/examples/

I'm sorry for the inconvenience. I don't want to broadcast my email address all over the web, but if anybody has concerns, please email sportsorter@gmail.com, and I can give links to our research group, and establish that we are bona fide.
 
Re: Post your stats questions here

No worries, I found my way to the site anyway.

My only question is this: do you really want to have this open across a period of time, and do you want the AFL selector open this early?

The perceptions of the public will change over time. Indeed, who I predict today will be different to who I predict on the eve of Round 1, 2010.

I'm not sure if having the AFL selector open this early will help the accuracy of your findings.
 
Re: Post your stats questions here

S "Thinks He's Daicos" J said:
My only question is this: do you really want to have this open across a period of time, and do you want the AFL selector open this early?

The perceptions of the public will change over time. Indeed, who I predict today will be different to who I predict on the eve of Round 1, 2010.

I'm not sure if having the AFL selector open this early will help the accuracy of your findings.
Click to expand...

If we knew the answers to these (really good) questions, it wouldn't be research :)

One thing we're interested in is whether or by how much predictions improve over time. Ourintuition is also that predicting the AFL 2010 ladder now is much harder than in March next year, but there's no harm in testing that intuition, which we can do if people give opinions starting now, and going all the way through.
 
Re: Post your stats questions here

In 1997, St Kilda achieved a very rare accomplishment - they headed the ladder with a 15-7 record after Round 22 in an even season, having been last at the completion of Round 5.

While the 1997 Saints team are an unusual example of a minor premier having been last on the ladder at some stage of the season, does anyone know if this has happened in reverse, with the team taking the wooden spoon having headed the ladder at some stage early in the year?

I can't name any examples - can you?
 
Re: Post your stats questions here

emuboy said:
In 1997, St Kilda achieved a very rare accomplishment - they headed the ladder with a 15-7 record after Round 22 in an even season, having been last at the completion of Round 5.

While the 1997 Saints team are an unusual example of a minor premier having been last on the ladder at some stage of the season, does anyone know if this has happened in reverse, with the team taking the wooden spoon having headed the ladder at some stage early in the year?

I can't name any examples - can you?
Click to expand...

Essendon were top of the ladder with 2 wins and a percentage of 151.5 % after 2 completed rounds in 1907. They only won 3 more matches for the rest of the season to finish last with 5 wins, 12 losses and a percentage of 74.0%.

North Melbourne started the 1956 season on top of the ladder with a percentage of 239%. The only won 2 more matches and finished last with a percentage of 69.6%

In 1916 Fitzroy in the depleted wartime, 4 team competition topped the ladder after rounds 2 and 3 with 2 wins and a draw. Their form then dropped off and they didn't win again in the remaining 9 rounds, leaving them on the bottom of the ladder at then end of the home and away season. As all 4 teams contested the finals, Fitzroy had the opportunity to refind their early form, which they did, going on to win the flag. There is some conjecture whether they could be Wooden-Spooners and Premiers in the same season. Some sources give the 1916 Wooden Spoon to Richmond who with the finals results included, won half a game less than Fitzroy for the year. (Richmond never topped the ladder during the season.)

More stuff at:
http://www.rogersresults.110mb.com/
 
Re: Post your stats questions here

RogersResults said:
Essendon were top of the ladder with 2 wins and a percentage of 151.5 % after 2 completed rounds in 1907. They only won 3 more matches for the rest of the season to finish last with 5 wins, 12 losses and a percentage of 74.0%.

North Melbourne started the 1956 season on top of the ladder with a percentage of 239%. The only won 2 more matches and finished last with a percentage of 69.6%

In 1916 Fitzroy in the depleted wartime, 4 team competition topped the ladder after rounds 2 and 3 with 2 wins and a draw. Their form then dropped off and they didn't win again in the remaining 9 rounds, leaving them on the bottom of the ladder at then end of the home and away season. As all 4 teams contested the finals, Fitzroy had the opportunity to refind their early form, which they did, going on to win the flag. There is some conjecture whether they could be Wooden-Spooners and Premiers in the same season. Some sources give the 1916 Wooden Spoon to Richmond who with the finals results included, won half a game less than Fitzroy for the year. (Richmond never topped the ladder during the season.)

More stuff at:
http://www.rogersresults.110mb.com/
Click to expand...

Thanks Rogers Results (your website is very interesting - I love football statistics!)

I didn't think that there had been any recent cases of a wooden spooner which had headed the ladder at some stage during the season, but some years ago I do remembering it happening in the WAFL to South Fremantle in 1987 (won its first 3, lost its last 18 but only hit the bottom in the final round) and in 1994 to Sturt in the SANFL, which made a bright start to its campaign that year, but fell away to collect its 6th wooden spoon in a row with just 5 wins for the year.
 

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Re: Post your stats questions here

Guys, I was wondering about the advantages and privileges that I will get if I join Geelong Membership. Please can anyone give an answer to this?
Thank you very much...
Sorry if I put my question in wrong thread.
 
Re: Post your stats questions here

PearlWhite said:
Guys, I was wondering about the advantages and privileges that I will get if I join Geelong Membership. Please can anyone give an answer to this?
Thank you very much...
Sorry if I put my question in wrong thread.
Click to expand...

Maybe try the Geelong board. Might be some Perth based Cat fans there.
 
Re: Post your stats questions here

Unfortunately, I don't have most historical behinds scorers i.e. prior to 1987. With that in mind the biggest margin is 66 (84-18), in this game
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/games/1919/151619190726.html

It's happened 485 other times, most recently here
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/games/2009/081520090418.html

Of course there are games such as this
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/games/1899/091518990812.html
and this
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/games/1897/051518970724.html
where seven players do the trick.
 
Re: Post your stats questions here

Last week as the Bulldogs were playing the Lions I realised that when these teams meet in the proper season we may see a battle between some of our time's great forwards.

J Brown + B Fevola vs B Johnson + B Hall.

Together they've kicked 2150 goals and have each kicked over 400 goals.

I was just wondering:
1. When was the last time there was a match featuring 4 players who had each kicked over 400 goals?
2. When was the last time there was a match featuring 4 players (or 2 or 3) that had already amounted at least 2150 goals between them?

For 2, I'm sure when Dunstall last played Lockett they had already kicked 2150 goals between them, and I doubt that figure has been reached since with only 2 players. For three players the last time might be something like when Lloyd and Lucas played Richo.
 

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Re: Post your stats questions here

The Swert said:
Last week as the Bulldogs were playing the Lions I realised that when these teams meet in the proper season we may see a battle between some of our time's great forwards.

J Brown + B Fevola vs B Johnson + B Hall.

Together they've kicked 2150 goals and have each kicked over 400 goals.

I was just wondering:
1. When was the last time there was a match featuring 4 players who had each kicked over 400 goals?
2. When was the last time there was a match featuring 4 players (or 2 or 3) that had already amounted at least 2150 goals between them?

For 2, I'm sure when Dunstall last played Lockett they had already kicked 2150 goals between them, and I doubt that figure has been reached since with only 2 players. For three players the last time might be something like when Lloyd and Lucas played Richo.
Click to expand...

1. The most recent was last year's Bulldogs/Brisbane semi - Akermanis, Johnson, Bradshaw, Brown. The other occasions were

2009 R20 Br v WB (Bradshaw, Brown/Akermanis, Johnson)
2009 R16 Es v WB (Lloyd, Lucas/Akermanis, Johnson)
2001 R10 WB v NM (Grant, Hudson/Carey, Rocca)
1998 R13 Ha v NM (Dunstall, Salmon/Carey, Longmire)
1998 R11 NM v Co (Carey, Longmire/Osborne, Rocca)
1991 R24 Es v Ha (Daniher, Madden/Brereton, Dunstall)
1983 R12 Ha v Fi (Matthews, Moncrieff/Quinlan, Wilson)

If all of Fevola, Brown, Hall, Johnson and Akermanis take the field in Round 4, it will be the first occasion that five players with over 400 career goals have competed in the same match.

2. The R16, 2009 Es v WB match with 2334 goals between Lloyd (926), Johnson (536), Lucas (469) & Akermanis (403).

The R9, 1998 Sy v Ha game has the record for the top 2-19 players in a match, as follows:
2 - 2443 Lockett 1236, Dunstall 1207
3 - 2972 Salmon 529
4 - 3259 Roos 287
5 - 3432 Bayes 173
6 - 3581 Lewis 149
7 - 3729 Kappler 148
8 - 3852 Kelly 123
9 - 3960 Schwass 108
10 - 4057 Cresswell 97
11 - 4148 Maxfield 91
12 - 4228 Crawford 80
13 - 4301 O'Loughlin 73
14 - 4373 Holland 72
15 - 4432 Luff 59
16 - 4484 Chick 52
17 - 4533 Lord 49
18 - 4580 Mooney 47
19 - 4609 Krummel 29

It gets overtaken by R22, 2004 (Br v NM) for 20-44 players.

NB all figures include goals kicked in the nominated match.
 
Re: Post your stats questions here

Thanks for that. I forgot about Akermanis.

If you were to exclude that 1998 Syd-Haw match, are they any other matches that even come close? Or would the next highest be something boring like 1997 Syd-Haw?
 
Re: Post your stats questions here

The Swert said:
Thanks for that. I forgot about Akermanis.

If you were to exclude that 1998 Syd-Haw match, are they any other matches that even come close? Or would the next highest be something boring like 1997 Syd-Haw?
Click to expand...

It's a bit boring. The top three for the sum of x players' career goals are all Sy v Ha matches for 2-7 players. Fourth-ranked is the 1996 R15 Ge v Ha match:
2 - 2150
3 - 2662
4 - 2918 etc down to 7 players. Ge v Ha jumps to 3rd for 8-16 players, then 2004 R22 Br v NM moves to 3rd for 17 players, then 2nd for 18-19 and 1st for 20+.
 
Re: Post your stats questions here

Ron The Bear said:
It's a bit boring. The top three for the sum of x players' career goals are all Sy v Ha matches for 2-7 players. Fourth-ranked is the 1996 R15 Ge v Ha match:
2 - 2150
3 - 2662
4 - 2918 etc down to 7 players. Ge v Ha jumps to 3rd for 8-16 players, then 2004 R22 Br v NM moves to 3rd for 17 players, then 2nd for 18-19 and 1st for 20+.
Click to expand...
hey guys just wondering if any1 could help me with the name trent hoppner, he was drafted to carlton in 97 i think only played one senior game just wana know what round and who against. cheers
 

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