grumbleguts
User name to post ratio checks out
- Joined
- Aug 14, 2011
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- Brisbane Qld
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Using the mathematics of dominance matrices we have analysed the season so far to ascertain just who is the highest lowest rated team statistically. Sometimes the ladder doesn't actually demonstrate the worst or best team in the competition.
By way of demonstration, in 2016 North Melbourne were two games clear on top of the ladder in round 9 undefeated. This system had them placed as the 8th best team in the competition at that point despite them not having lost a single game. They finished 8th on the ladder.
OK. So let's start our journey at round 3 (the first round where there is sufficient data to actually rank the competition.) Each rating in each round is relative to the highest rated team being rated 100.
There is a fairly consistent decay of rating through the league from the Hawks at the top to the Royals in their rightfully earnt position carrying the league on their shoulders.
Round 4 sees the Old Boys usurp that position so coveted by the Royals, and secretly, the rest of the league (it's just as hard to get every tip wrong in a tipping competition as it is to get every tip right.
However, all is not lost.
Round 5 sees the Royals regain their ascendency and regain it well. Also a tight fight at the other end of the rankings.
Round 6 a little more of the same
Ah, but it's round 7 where interesting things start happening.
In round 7 the league has resolved itself into two distinct groups, the top 12 and the Royals.
In round 8 the Royals won, so there is an issue for the Swamprats. Not only did they lose large in that round, but also earlier in the season lost heavily to the team the royals beat taking a double hit in the ratings.
Luckily for the Royals round 9 resumed normal transmission. And by Round 10, there is very little they can do to climb out of the mire they and the sim have conspired to tangle them in.
Round ten.
What can you say about a team that is so perfect it has less than half the rating of the top-rated team in the comp after 10 rounds?
By way of demonstration, in 2016 North Melbourne were two games clear on top of the ladder in round 9 undefeated. This system had them placed as the 8th best team in the competition at that point despite them not having lost a single game. They finished 8th on the ladder.
OK. So let's start our journey at round 3 (the first round where there is sufficient data to actually rank the competition.) Each rating in each round is relative to the highest rated team being rated 100.
There is a fairly consistent decay of rating through the league from the Hawks at the top to the Royals in their rightfully earnt position carrying the league on their shoulders.
Round 4 sees the Old Boys usurp that position so coveted by the Royals, and secretly, the rest of the league (it's just as hard to get every tip wrong in a tipping competition as it is to get every tip right.
However, all is not lost.
Round 5 sees the Royals regain their ascendency and regain it well. Also a tight fight at the other end of the rankings.
Round 6 a little more of the same
Ah, but it's round 7 where interesting things start happening.
In round 7 the league has resolved itself into two distinct groups, the top 12 and the Royals.
In round 8 the Royals won, so there is an issue for the Swamprats. Not only did they lose large in that round, but also earlier in the season lost heavily to the team the royals beat taking a double hit in the ratings.
Luckily for the Royals round 9 resumed normal transmission. And by Round 10, there is very little they can do to climb out of the mire they and the sim have conspired to tangle them in.
Round ten.
What can you say about a team that is so perfect it has less than half the rating of the top-rated team in the comp after 10 rounds?
