Stats That Matter

[Arr0w]

I don’t know if that’s the best way of looking at it. Having a look at this weeks sides we have more players playing then St Kilda who were on our list prior to 2015. There 4 to our 7 and we have the same amount as Brisbane. They have either built more or at least as much of their side as we have over the last 5 years.

That really doesn't effect the timeline though, although all 3 clubs have taken slightly different paths. Timelines/progression is never linear, more an upward climb with some speed humps

The crucial point will be how hard we go at acquiring ready made players at the end of this year, which was what the Lions did end of 2018 and Saints last year.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

That really doesn't effect the timeline though, although all 3 clubs have taken slightly different paths. Timelines/progression is never linear, more an upward climb with some speed humps

The crucial point will be how hard we go at acquiring ready made players at the end of this year, which was what the Lions did end of 2018 and Saints last year.

It doesn’t effect the timeline but it tells you everything about how long it takes to compete after turning over a huge chunk of the list. You could argue GC started a new rebuild in 2017 or 2018 for instance but that’s why it’s better to compare the actual turn over then a timeline imo.
even a injury riddled side like Richmond this week have probably brought in a similar amount to us over our rebuilding timeline. Just because sides aren’t bottoming out doesn’t mean they aren’t rebuilding.

 

[Arr0w]

It doesn’t effect the timeline but it tells you everything about how long it takes to compete after turning over a huge chunk of the list. You could argue GC started a new rebuild in 2017 or 2018 for instance but that’s why it’s better to compare the actual turn over then a timeline imo.
even a injury riddled side like Richmond this week have probably brought in a similar amount to us over our rebuilding timeline. Just because sides aren’t bottoming out doesn’t mean they aren’t rebuilding.

It takes most rebuilding sides 4-5 years to start building competiveness/positive results

There is a massive difference between a dedicated rebuild and list management strategies to refresh a list

You can turnover the same number of players, but it still comes back to the quality and age of those players, the value received and most importantly how you use that value

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

It takes most rebuilding sides 4-5 years to start building competiveness/positive results

There is a massive difference between a dedicated rebuild and list management strategies to refresh a list

You can turnover the same number of players, but it still comes back to the quality and age of those players, the value received and most importantly how you use that value

I agree with that but that is why timelines don’t make much sense to me. We chose to rebuild the way we have to get to say the same position that Brisbane is right now and since we started our rebuild Brisbane have built their list to the same extent we have. The theory’s of building a list are different but the goals are all the same.

 

[BoundbyKreuze]

Jones and Weitering have had a combined 78 one on one contests in 2020 (8 games) and lost 10. #StatsThatMatter.

 

[Yubby]

I thought i'd compare our performance this year against last year to see how we've improved. Rather than comparing directly, i decided to multiply our scores this year by a factor of 1.2 to compensate for the shortened quarters and to make them somewhat comparable.

In short, our average winning margin is the same but our average losing margin has halved from -28 down to -14. We have no losses with margins above 30 points whilst last year we had 5.

Losing margins vs Richmond, Port and Melbourne have all reduced whilst there is a 71 point reversal from our loss to Geelong last year to this year.

All of these figures clearly show our growth and improvement.

Now yes we still may not be where we want to be and games like against North are tough to watch but the stats clearly show the improvement.

And most importantly, in every game this year we have been in it and had a chance to win. Last year there were plenty where we were no-where near it or the results actually flattered us or deceived the eye.

Someone said on another thread we are more professional and i think all of these stats support this. There is a notable lift in our standards and our consistency which is a sign we are onto something special. Once it all starts clicking properly into gear and our youngsters get more games under their belt i think we'll take that next step again.

Exciting times.

 

[BluStreak]

Great work Yubby . I have a couple of questions.
Was the factor also used on the oppositions score?
Also did the first round have shortened quarters?

 

[Yubby]

Great work Yubby . I have a couple of questions.
Was the factor also used on the oppositions score?
Also did the first round have shortened quarters?

Yes the factor has been applied to both teams scores in each round. Round 1 also had shorter quarters.

 

[new_blue]

We lost a game after the siren.

We lost by 1 point against the 13th placed team, after giving them a 42 point head start.

Win those 2 games and we’d be sitting second on the ladder (equal first, behind Bris only by percentage).

 

[thylacine60]

if only won't feed the kid..........

 

[BoundbyKreuze]

The left is Weitering and the right is Harris Andrews. Harris gets the front cover of the AFL Record this week. Counting the key stars and removing those that mean the same thing. I count a 7-6 victory to Jacob.

 

[Jeremias]

The left is Weitering and the right is Harris Andrews. Harris gets the front cover of the AFL Record this week. Counting the key stars and removing those that mean the same thing. I count a 7-6 victory to Jacob.

View attachment 922637

Which of those do you think is a relevant stat for a key position defender?

 

[thylacine60]

goals scored

 

[BoundbyKreuze]

Which of those do you think is a relevant stat for a key position defender?

Marks, metres gained, DE%, Clangers, 1%ers, contested marks.

 

[BoundbyKreuze]

Which of those do you think is a relevant stat for a key position defender?

According to this (https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/07/29/which-defenders-have-conceded-the-fewest-goals-this-year/) Weiters has conceded 7. I don’t rate their analysis.

 

[Jeremias]

Marks, metres gained, DE%, Clangers, 1%ers, contested marks.

I'd say half of them are irrelevant given they're far more about the system those players are in rather than the individual quality of the player.

Has someone who took 4 extra marks had a better game if those marks are cheap uncontested chips through the defensive 50?

 

[new_blue]

if only won't feed the kid..........

We are where we are...just shows we’re not too far away.

 

[BoundbyKreuze]

Player rating for after round 8
KEY DEF:
Liam Jones - 5th (up from 7th)
Weitering - 15th (unlisted)
GEN DEF:
SPS - 5th (3rd)
KEY FWD
Casboult - 19th (7th)
GEN FWD:
Martin - 15th (unlisted as a gen fwd)
MID:
Cripps - 14th (8th)
RUCK:
Pittonet - 8th (4th)

boys dropped a few spots recently. Doc gone, Cripps, Martin and Casboult nearly unlisted. Weitering coming back in. Martin no longer classified as a mid forward but an outright mid.

 

[Jabba73]

I'd say half of them are irrelevant given they're far more about the system those players are in rather than the individual quality of the player.

Has someone who took 4 extra marks had a better game if those marks are cheap uncontested chips through the defensive 50?

SuperCoach says yes

 

[BoundbyKreuze]

I'd say half of them are irrelevant given they're far more about the system those players are in rather than the individual quality of the player.

Has someone who took 4 extra marks had a better game if those marks are cheap uncontested chips through the defensive 50?

Not a lot of other ways to compare these two. Apart from Stats via afk site but they no longer have the full access to the colour coordinated (elite, a grade, etc) data.

 

[OnceWeWereKings]

According to this (https://www.sen.com.au/news/2020/07/29/which-defenders-have-conceded-the-fewest-goals-this-year/) Weiters has conceded 7. I don’t rate their analysis.

So Johannisen hasn’t conceded a goal?

We had three KPF and three small to mediums in our game against the Dogs, Our three small / mid forwards were Betts, Martin & Gibbons.

Johannisen being considered a small to medium defender.

Betts kicks 4
Gibbons kicks 2
Martin kicks 2

Yet none kicked on Johannisen, alrighty then.....

Stats are s**t.

 

[Jabba73]

So Johannisen hasn’t conceded a goal?

We had three KPF and three small to mediums in our game against the Dogs, Our three small / mid forwards were Betts, Martin & Gibbons.

Johannisen being considered a small to medium defender.

Betts kicks 4
Gibbons kicks 2
Martin kicks 2

Yet none kicked on Johannisen, alrighty then.....

Stats are sh*t.

JJ plays as a loose defender, technically he never has an opponent, so no one will ever kick a goal on him

 

[OnceWeWereKings]

JJ plays as a loose defender, technically he never has an opponent, so no one will ever kick a goal on him

Jones can claim that was his role against Dixon then?

 

[Jeremias]

Not a lot of other ways to compare these two. Apart from Stats via afk site but they no longer have the full access to the colour coordinated (elite, a grade, etc) data.

There are better stats to use, but sadly the general public doesn't have access to them. I don't think any of the stats provided tell us anything significant, contested marks is probably the only stat remotely relevant.

That being the case, just watch the game and enjoy two serious talents.

 

[Brackets]

Long post coming up. So I started thinking about this after the loss against Hawks - we're often focused here on age and experience (in terms of games played), and how that compares to our opposition of the day, but there's often little or no thought given to experience in terms of winning and finals.

So I started with our game against the Hawks:



Of those that played:
- 19 players have never played finals - 16 were from out team
- 17 players had won more than half their games throughout their career - 16 were from Hawthorn (Pitto for us)
- 9 players have won a premiership - all Hawthorn players

Such a huge discrepancy in winning experience and mentality, but Hawthorn is somewhat of an outlier so I compared us to Lions and Saints who came from a similar position to us.



As expected not so extreme, but still an obvious difference. Winning percentage is neutral rather than a losing mentality like ours, both have premiership experience and better finals experience.

Is this solely because they may be a year or two ahead of where we started. Perhaps, but I took at look at recent player additions for the 3 teams, to compare what experience each were bringing in.