Free Agency Stephen Coniglio

[Hawkk]

That's not true. Four of year olds who played on the weekend won't be on the list next month.

Roughead - retired
Puopolo - likely to retire
Smith - will be traded
Mohr - retire
Schoenmakers - retire
Burgoyne - likely to retire or finish elsewhere

That leaves only McEvoy, Henderson, Frawley and Stratton as the 30 year olds.

Same could apply to Carlton too though, regardless the over 30 thing is a bit of a myth

Much like the Duck (who we know has a thing for glassing) has been foretelling Hawthorn's demise since he stated Mitchell wasn't Carlton best 22 (when Hawthorn belted the blooze by the infamous 138 point margin in 2015) and Jono Brown who himself has stated ad nauseam that Hawthorn has benefited by Free Agency...

 

[HolyRioli]

Mitchell certainly will be a big addition next year, still doesn't change the fact that you'll have 8 players over 30, with many of them best 22.

Of the 8 who I assume you're talking about, there's a solid chance that Birchall will either retire or play limited games, strong whispers that Smith won't be at the Hawks and Puopolo is certainly skating on thin ice. Which leaves Burgoyne, McEvoy, Stratton, Frawley and Henderson as first teamers.

Carlton will have 5 (Kreuzer, Murphy, E Curnow, Simpson, Casboult), with Jones 29, and probably should have 6 considering Daisy's form has been better than half the squad. So looks like we're pretty close to par there.

 

[Jeremias]

Oh so we will have 8 with some of them being best 22 meanwhile just last week Carlton had 6 playing that will be over 30 next year. Not that far apart different.

How many will be a part of our best side?

 

[DesertRoo]

This is in response to DesertRoo saying we were sitting at the bottom end of the ladder. 7 wins in any other year would have us 12th-14th and the story would be slightly different.

Is this what it’s come too, the competition is so much harder this year. If it were any other year we’d be in the 8?

 

[Arr0w]

Lol but Carlton are coming, and we all know it...

Just like it's 2012 all over again.

What were the Carlton Best and Fairest numbers like last year?

What relevance has last year have over this year or future progression?

 

[cfc4life]

Oh so we will have 8 with some of them being best 22 meanwhile just last week Carlton had 6 playing that will be over 30 next year. Not that far apart different.

Age profile my dude.

Carlton will have 5 30+ players on their list next year.

Kade Simpson
Marc Murphy
Levi Casboult
Ed Curnow
Matthew Kreuzer

However we will also have 9, possibly 10 players under 21 also in that best 22.

Hawthorn have Worpel(gun), Lewis(building nicely) and not much else.

You've done a great job of staying within finals contention, but the age profile doesn't suggest a good future.

 

[Slysh]

How many will be a part of our best side?

Well i can't predict the future but what i can say is the reliance on that older brigade is still quite high and has been a big part of the resurgence.

For example the win on the weekend was largely down to Casboult, Thomas, Kreuz and Simpson. Ed also played very well.

 

[Slysh]

Age profile my dude.

Carlton will have 5 30+ players on their list next year.

Kade Simpson
Marc Murphy
Levi Casboult
Ed Curnow
Matthew Kreuzer

However we will also have 9, possibly 10 players under 21 also in that best 22.

Hawthorn have Worpel(gun), Lewis(building nicely) and not much else.

You've done a great job of staying within finals contention, but the age profile doesn't suggest a good future.

But my point is entirely on who is carrying the load at the moment. Carlton have improved on a bigger reliance on those older players, will Carlton continue to improve next season if they start to slow down or will it maybe another year of stalling waiting for the younger guys to show they can carry the team forward.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

We have the cash, why not spend it.

 

[Hawkk]

What relevance has last year have over this year or future progression?

Well the claim was that Hawthorn has an over reliance on veteren players, so on that basis what was Carlton's best and fairest list from last year and will it likely change this year?

As for Hawthorn, in 2018 Hawthorn made the top 4 (after the home and away season) with a so-so (by Hawthorn standards) 15-7 120.5% season...

Peter Crimmins Medal Top 10

1. Tom Mitchell 163 votes (currently 26 years old)

2. Blake Hardwick 127 votes (currently 21 years old)

3. Isaac Smith 125 votes (currently 30 years old)

4. Jack Gunston 121 votes (currently 27 years old)

5. Jaeger O’Meara 120 votes (currently 25 years old)

6. Luke Breust 119 votes (currently 28 years old)

7. Ben Stratton 112 votes (currently 29 years old)

8. Ben McEvoy 99 votes (currently 29 years old)

9. Liam Shiels 99 votes (currently 28 years old)

10. James Sicily 87 votes (currently 24 years old)

Interesting at the time of the best and fairest last season, not one of the Hawthorn players were 30 years old (in 2016, 4 of the top 10 were 30 plus including the top 3)

Not sure about 2019, but Hawthorn has added Chad Wingard (currently 26 years old), Tom Scully (currently 28 years old) and Jack Scrimshaw (currently 20 years old)

Obviously Tom Mitchell is not going to feature in this list but I expect James Worpel (currently 20 years old), Jarman Impey (currently 24 years old) and perhaps Chad Wingard (who has been amongst Hawthorn's best since they turned 5-2 in the second half of the season) to feature in this year's best and fairest...

I am a big believer in projecting results on the back of demonstrated performance, I also believe that the devil is always in the percentage...

Now if you look at Hawthorn since the threepeat (include the last year of the threepeat for comparison sake)

2015 - 16-6 158% (premiers)
2016 - 17-5 118% (5th)
2017 - 10-1-11 90% (12th)
2018 - 15-7 120% (5th)
2019 - 10-11 106% (currently 9th)

Hawthorn has consolidated through the 2016-19 period (the worst year was by far 2017) and with some strategic recruiting, they are in a decent position to springboard back into the top 4 and be a realistic challenger in an otherwise even, unremarkable competition.

Certainly if you look at the 2016 best and fairest list and compare to 2018 there has been a significant transition already...

Peter Crimmins Medal Top 10
1. Sam Mitchell – 170 votes (33 year old at the time)
2. Jordan Lewis – 157 votes (30 year old at the time)
3. Shaun Burgoyne – 156 votes (32 year old at the time)
4. Grant Birchall – 152 votes (28 year old at the time)
5. Cyril Rioli – 148 votes (28 year old at the time)
6. Isaac Smith – 146 votes (27 year old at the time)
7. Jack Gunston – 142 votes (24 year old at the time)
8. Josh Gibson – 135 votes (32 year old at te time)
9. James Frawley – 127 votes (28 yeat old at the time)
10. Luke Breust – 124 votes (26 year old at the time)

As it stands, 1, 2, 5 and 8 are no longer on the list (and had left by 2018 which is a dramatic change in itself) and 3, 6 and 10 are rumoured to be on the trade table.

So much for Clarkson being over rated, he managed to take a team in transition to the top 4, during a rebuild and recruited a fringe Swans player and made him a Brownlow medalist in two completed seasons.

Hopefully for your sake the Teague 'train' can go one better without the training wheels

The 2016 Hawthorn side was definately a side that had an unhealthy reliance on veteren players, the 2019 side not so much

 

[DesertRoo]

We have the cash, why not spend it.

I like the idea, Reverse ransom.
Put a sack over his head, kidnap him, take him to visy and throw money at him until he stays...

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

I like the idea of Reverse ransom?
Put a sack over his head, kidnap him, take him to visy and throw money at him until he stays...

Not a bad idea. We should definately consider it.

Have him attend one of our board meetings as an invited guest.

 

[Mofra]

Has there ever been a situation where a player has gone to a club because his friend plays there? It's seems like a rather childish reason to make such an important decision

Hamling and Kerstan to Freo

 

[Arr0w]

Well the claim was that Hawthorn has an over reliance on veteren players, so on that basis what was Carlton's best and fairest list from last year and will it likely change this year?

As for Hawthorn, in 2018 Hawthorn made the top 4 (after the home and away season) with a so-so (by Hawthorn standards) 15-7 120.5% season...

Peter Crimmins Medal Top 10

1. Tom Mitchell 163 votes (currently 26 years old)

2. Blake Hardwick 127 votes (currently 21 years old)

3. Isaac Smith 125 votes (currently 30 years old)

4. Jack Gunston 121 votes (currently 27 years old)

5. Jaeger O’Meara 120 votes (currently 25 years old)

6. Luke Breust 119 votes (currently 28 years old)

7. Ben Stratton 112 votes (currently 29 years old)

8. Ben McEvoy 99 votes (currently 29 years old)

9. Liam Shiels 99 votes (currently 28 years old)

10. James Sicily 87 votes (currently 24 years old)

Not sure about 2019, but Hawthorn has added Chad Wingard (currently 26 years old), Tom Scully (currently 28 years old) and Jack Scrimshaw (currently 20 years old)

Obviously Tom Mitchell is not going to feature in this list but I expect James Worpel (currently 20 years old), Jarman Impey (currently 24 years old) and perhaps Chad Wingard (who has been amongst Hawthorn's best since they turned 5-2 in the second half of the season) to feature in this year's best and fairest...

I am a big believer in projecting results on the back of demonstrated performance, I also believe that the devil is always in the percentage...

Now if you look at Hawthorn since the threepeat (include the last year of the threepeat for comparison sake)

2015 - 16-6 158% (premiers)
2016 - 17-5 118% (5th)
2017 - 10-1-11 90% (12th)
2018 - 15-7 120% (5th)
2019 - 10-11 106% (currently 9th)

Hawthorn has consolidated through the 2016-19 period (the worst year was by far 2017) and with some strategic recruiting, they are in a decent position to springboard back into the top 4 and be a realistic challenger in an otherwise even, unremarkable competition.

Certainly if you look at the 2016 best and fairest list and compare to 2018 there has been a significant transition already...

Peter Crimmins Medal Top 10
1. Sam Mitchell – 170 votes
2. Jordan Lewis – 157 votes
3. Shaun Burgoyne – 156 votes
4. Grant Birchall – 152 votes
5. Cyril Rioli – 148 votes
6. Isaac Smith – 146 votes
7. Jack Gunston – 142 votes
8. Josh Gibson – 135 votes
9. James Frawley – 127 votes
10. Luke Breust – 124 votes

As it stands, 1, 2, 5 and 8 are no longer on the list (and had left by 2018 which is a dramatic change in itself) and 3, 6 and 10 are rumoured to be on the trade table.

So much for Clarkson being over rated, he managed to take a team in transition to the top 4, during a rebuild and recruited a fringe Swans player and made him a Brownlow medalist in two completed seasons.

Hopefully for your sake the Teague 'train' can go one better without the training wheels

The 2016 Hawthorn side was definately a side that had an unhealthy reliance on veteren players, the 2019 side not so much

Again, not sure what relevance the past has to future prospects

Most older, mature players are merely waiting for the next younger version to come through.

Your list has some great young kids, I feel we have a few more.

You have better quality in the 23-27 age range, we are 1-2 years away

You have more senior players that you will need to transition, but I would back your club in finding replacements

Your current list is mirroring your wins, just as it did when you won 3 flags

Our list is also mirroring results, ground zero at the start of the year, now just enjoying continuity and waiting for it to mature

 

[Kwality]

Has there ever been a situation where a player has gone to a club because his friend plays there? It's seems like a rather childish reason to make such an important decision

It was reported at the time Tyson Stenglein left the Crows his friendship with Chad Fletcher was a factor, played together in the 2006 flag.
They were both drafted from Subi.

Interesting that last I heard Fletcher was living in Indonesia & Stenglein in Melbourne.

Brothers the Carrs, Matthew drafted by the Saints traded to Freo, Josh drafted by Port, left after a flag to play with his brother, went back to Port after 3 (?) seasons. The Rocca brothers?

 

[Kwality]

Of the 8 who I assume you're talking about, there's a solid chance that Birchall will either retire or play limited games, strong whispers that Smith won't be at the Hawks and Puopolo is certainly skating on thin ice. Which leaves Burgoyne, McEvoy, Stratton, Frawley and Henderson as first teamers.

Carlton will have 5 (Kreuzer, Murphy, E Curnow, Simpson, Casboult), with Jones 29, and probably should have 6 considering Daisy's form has been better than half the squad. So looks like we're pretty close to par there.

So Coniglio doesnt have a flag high on his bucket list, dont think so !!

 

[Hawkk]

Again, not sure what relevance the past has to future prospects

Most older, mature players are merely waiting for the next younger version to come through.

Your list has some great young kids, I feel we have a few more.

You have better quality in the 23-27 age range, we are 1-2 years away

You have more senior players that you will need to transition, but I would back your club in finding replacements

Your current list is mirroring your wins, just as it did when you won 3 flags

Our list is also mirroring results, ground zero at the start of the year, now just enjoying continuity and waiting for it to mature

Perhaps,

I don’t disagree with you and I have long said Hawthorn have some structural problems with the list...

But the lazy journalism is very wrong here, Hawthorn has already started a pretty major rebuild (the structure and dynamic of the team changed considerably between 2016 and 2018) but instead of going for raw kids in the draft Hawthorn has tried, with varying success, to pick up 20-25 year olds with 3-5 years of AFL experience

This is a very deliberate strategy and it’s debatable if it’ll bare fruit

Like I said I believe the value is always in the percentage and Hawthorn has hovered around the 105-120 percentage mark for 4 seasons, in a very even season (with just one team above 121%) this puts Hawthorn in the conversation but lacking polish

Clearly there is no destructive Geelong 2008-2011, Collingwood 2010-11 or Hawthorn 2012-15 or Sydney 2014 taking the competition apart.

This in itself probably explains why Hawthorn is going after Cognilio, Patton, Whitfield (and previously Wingard, Scully, JOM and Mitchell) rather than rebuilding from ground zero

 

[Hawkk]

So Coniglio doesnt have a flag high on his bucket list, dont think so !!

Read my post above

 

[MC_9]

Age profile my dude.

Carlton will have 5 30+ players on their list next year.

Kade Simpson
Marc Murphy
Levi Casboult
Ed Curnow
Matthew Kreuzer

However we will also have 9, possibly 10 players under 21 also in that best 22.

Hawthorn have Worpel(gun), Lewis(building nicely) and not much else.

You've done a great job of staying within finals contention, but the age profile doesn't suggest a good future.

Oh that's right. Big footy, where it is more important to be young than good.


Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

 

[Hawkk]

Perhaps,

I don’t disagree with you and I have long said Hawthorn have some structural problems with the list...

But the lazy journalism is very wrong here, Hawthorn has already started a pretty major rebuild (the structure and dynamic of the team changed considerably between 2016 and 2018) but instead of going for raw kids in the draft Hawthorn has tried, with varying success, to pick up 20-25 year olds with 3-5 years of AFL experience

This is a very deliberate strategy and it’s debatable if it’ll bare fruit

Like I said I believe the value is always in the percentage and Hawthorn has hovered around the 105-120 percentage mark for 4 seasons, in a very even season (with just one team above 121%) this puts Hawthorn in the conversation but lacking polish

Clearly there is no destructive Geelong 2008-2011, Collingwood 2010-11 or Hawthorn 2012-15 or Sydney 2014 taking the competition apart.

This in itself probably explains why Hawthorn is going after Cognilio, Patton, Whitfield (and previously Wingard, Scully, JOM and Mitchell) rather than rebuilding from ground zero

Just with regards to this, the rebound in Carlton’s percentage (up from 89.7, 64.8, 79.4, 78.2, 59.4 to 87.8) suggests considerable improvement by Carlton as well

It also shows just how much of a disaster 2018 was for Carlton too.

On percentage alone Carlton is back to 2014 levels (7-1-14, 89.7) but with a much more promising list profile.

Certainly I think the rebound in percentage is much more promising than the 7 wins, it was the rebound in percentage that was precursor to the Lions rapid rise

 

[F_therest]

You can make a convincing case for Carlton and Hawthorn but for different reasons of course. Carlton has superior key position stocks and a much better core group of players who are around the age of 19-23 years old. The Blues have more upside than Hawthorn in comparison and whether that's in 1 year, 3 or 5 years I don't know. Carlton's time at the top will come at some point irrespective whether they get Coniglio or not. For Carlton Coniglio is just the type of player they need as the Blues don't really have enough good players who are around 24-29 years old. That's probably the only deficiency really. Hawthorn on the other hand don't have as much upside but do have a good core group of players around the age bracket of 24-29 years old and Coniglio would fit in nicely alongside Mitchell and O'Meara.

About another 6 weeks of media speculation to go!

Good to see a bit of objectiveness.
Both clubs have a good case and have a lot to offer Coniglio...hence he's apparently deciding between the 2 or staying at GWS.

So sick of seeing both Hawthorn and Carlton supporters say s**t like:

'I see absolutely zero reason why Coniglio would want to join Carlton, they've been s**t for so long, Teague is an unproven coach, they have old players about to retire, their kids aren't even that good etc while at Hawthorn he can play under the master in Clarko, play with his best mates JOM & Patton, be better suited to win a premiership and play in front of big crowds at the G'.

'I see absolutely zero reason why Coniglio would want to join Hawthorn, they are clearly on the decline and going nowhere, they have old players about to retire, they have barely any good young players, they have small crowds and play in TAS, etc while at Carlton he will make a lot of money, we are better suited to win a premiership in the next few years with our talented kids and he gets to play in front of big crowds at the G.'

 

[Elmer_Judd]

IF Cogs does chose Carlton, I would like to think our supporters act with some class and magnanimity and not rub it into Hawk fans (and vice versa)

We are all adults here, and there is nothing worse than an ungracious winner in my book.

Starting to lean towards he is staying at GWS camp though, to be honest

 

[Tiger71]

Cogs wont be a blue. Hawks or Staying. I am thinking he is staying put.

 

[Floppy]

IF Cogs does chose Carlton, I would like to think our supporters act with some class and magnanimity and not rub it into Hawk fans (and vice versa)

We are all adults here, and there is nothing worse than an ungracious winner in my book.

Starting to lean towards he is staying at GWS camp though, to be honest

Mate, Carlton fans will rub it in hard, there is no stopping it.

 

[Jeremias]

Well i can't predict the future but what i can say is the reliance on that older brigade is still quite high and has been a big part of the resurgence.

For example the win on the weekend was largely down to Casboult, Thomas, Kreuz and Simpson. Ed also played very well.

It's likely that five will be at the club in 2020 with Thomas already a confirmed departure. Maybe only four if a club offers Casboult a nice final contract, but he's likely to stick around.

Kreuzer remains critical for us, but Simpson may find himself with a lesser role and we may also look to gradually phase Ed out depending on the moves we make in the coming months.

Our older players have been crucial for us largely because we've got so few players of any real quality in the 24-28 age bracket. That may change given the names we've been linked to but time will tell on that front. Either way, the club has identified it as an issue and will look to address it.

The reality is no club can rely on kids to carry them through a season and we are no different. Many of our kids though have made significant progress and you could argue that our three best players this year are all under 25.