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Stephen Silvagni and Carlton
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The thing about our recruiting is that we are not recruiting for 2019 we are recruiting for 2021 and so on and so on.
Drafting is fairly good, I'm happy with most of the players we have taken in the draft. Many of them are developing at a normal rate and are taking 3-4 season to have an impact which is pretty standard of most players. Some as expected come on early and impact almost immediately like Curnow and Walsh which is much more the exception than the rule. So we are still waiting on many of our draftees to hit their straps.
We traded a fair few players for good reason, they were not a part of our finished product, cultural change, we needed those picks because if you don't trade how are you going to bring in 30 good players in 5 or 6 years? You aren't. The thing is there aren't too many ex-Carlton players around the league I could honestly say that I would want in that team.
We've drafted a number of good players with later picks but unfortunately a good few of them have had chronic injuries like Williamson who played a lot in his first year, but has not played much at all the last two seasons. Same with Macreadie, he's recovering and developing in the VFL. Kerr is a decent key forward but is not getting games because McKay and Curnow have really come on. Jack Silvagni is ok and playing games.
It's a real myth that we are not drafting good players with later picks. Our third and fourth round picks are ok and on par with a lot of clubs. Fourth round picks are always a lottery and we've used them to bring in some senior gap filler players but really they are a big lottery. Newman is a 4th round pick who is more than a gap filler and can actually play, that's about the hit rate of the 4th round.
If you think 4th round picks should be used at the draft on 18 year olds then you need to have a good study of the draft and you need to understand that a list made up of too many teenagers is a really really bad thing. You're developing young players as people, professional athletes and footballers and you struggle to do that without senior players around and some of them have been great, even though they are gone. A guy like Kerridge who was an out and out professional who lead from the front and did a lot of the bulloking work was really great for the club and protected the young players but he's gone now. Doesn't mean he hasn't made a lasting contribution.
I really don't see how you see arrogance in this. Later list spots being arrogantly used, how? You need to understand that there aren't many good players around in the back of the draft and they are very rarely able to play AFL from the start. There are some but it's a real lottery. We've used them to bring in mature players who could provide some direction in the reserves, at training, around the club and play the odd senior game when there were injuries. Unfortunately there were a lot of injuries last year and a lot of them played AFL. Every club does that. Collingwood, Richmond etc have had a lot of journeymen fill a spot for a few years while the club was accumulation good players. Do your research, all clubs bring in senior players cheaply to fill spots short term.
You are suggesting that instead of taking in a few mature players with late picks that you draft speculative 18 year olds then you're failing to understand player development and depth retention. The alternative to drafting mature players who aren't that good but can fill a spot is to draft 18 year olds who can't play and won't offer depth or senior direction around the club. That would be extremely poor list management and I am glad we didn't do that. End of the day it's cost us nothing and it's helped keep things better balanced.
The short term players are getting paid to do what they do and given the opportunity to make an AFL career. It's not about them knowing they are there short term and getting shitty.
Pickett was a former pick 3 and had talent but things didn't work out, Sumner was a talented player who couldn't get himself fit and had a lot of ongoing injuries. They came in packages with players who have worked out. They were well worth giving a chance. I'd rather give these guys a chance than an 18 year old who probably can't play. A lot of clubs use late picks on 18 year olds and delist most of them. I don't see your point because you are not recognising that a lot of good clubs use filler players when they are rebuilding and not many 4th round picks make it.
I know in theory it works to only bring in players who are a chance to be a part of your future but in reality there is more to building a list than just talent. The players you have need some protection and guidance which will not come from 18 year olds taken in the first round. If anything we are playing too many kids already, there are players in our team who should have been able to develop in the VFL but we have not had the luxury.
You can also chose to ignore the players brought in from other clubs who are working out well too but that does not support the argument that SOS is arrogant and doesn't value late picks. I'm fairly happy with Newman, Setterfield, Plowman, Phillips and Marchbank for what it's worth. They are decen't to good players and are doing their job.
McGovern is a talented player and has gone ok considering he hasn't had a good preseason for two years and has struggled with soreness this season. Lang has been injured for a couple of years and is just coming back from a serious injury, Fasolo was a nothing pick and is a talented player and was worth a shot. I don't see how giving talented guys a go is a bad thing, all the clubs do it.
You really should have done some research into what you are saying because you are quite wrong about a lot of it. You're saying Carlton have done poorly from trades yet a lot of our young stars like McKay etc are a product from trading. You are saying players who have been chronically injured and aren't fit or aren't playing are busts despite being injured, you're saying our trading with GWS has been no good despite the good GWS players we have running around our team right now and in reserve from GWS. You're saying we don't value late draft picks and waste them when there are some pretty good late draft picks on our list, some are rated best 22 but have injuries, some are promising developing raw kids who have had injuries, some are best 22.
I think you're going along with a lot of other people who are going along with this on bigfooty and have failed to do what they all failed to do and have a look at where Carlton's players have come from and what injuries they have and how many good players are coming in per year. Also failed to recognise that what Carlton are doing is not that dissimilar to what the top clubs have done in their past. If you don't think the good clubs haven't drafted a lot of reserves players during rebuilds then you haven't followed them closely enough. Also your idea that Carlton should only draft kids but should be good by now... come on.
Carlton will click and will come good when the time is right. They are in the 4th year of a 7 year rebuild.
SOS gets a lot of crap and it's really easy to ignore that he's brought a lot of good but real young players into the club over four years. If you only focus on Carlton being crap and don't delve deep as to why it's easy to make poor conclusions.
It's also easy to ignore or simply not know that he was doing it without much assistance in his early days. Carlton's recruiting team has only really been been boosted and brought up to scratch recently.
Dale Blech (Recruiting officer) arrived from Hawthorn just last year and was a big get.
Paul Brodie (National recruiting manager) Came in for the 2017 season.
Michael Agresta (List manager) only arrived last year from the Swans and was a huge get. Has a reputation as a bit of a late pick guru.
SOS (GM List management and Strategy) has really only got his team together recently.
It's easy to tow the bigfooty line but let's do some research before making claims.
Not a bad thing really, any excuse for a sandwich is a good excuse.
Yeah I agree about the coach. In Carlton's 20 year history the coach has never been the problem but we have gone through heaps of them.
I couldn't tell you SOS' employment status, I've never heard.
I think Bolton was a bit of a fall guy, in reality if you start a full rebuild and you're down the bottom and you need to rebuild the foundations of your team you're going to be down the bottom for 5 years rebuilding through the draft. There probably aren't too many situations where a coach survives that. It's tough but it just is what it is.
The other aspect and it's something I've mentioned on the Carlton board is that Carlton's coaching department lacks profile. You compare it to Collingwood, Richmond, Geelong, Hawthorn it really lacks profile and that is important when recruiting really top mature age players. Carlton have just come into the stage of their development where it is right to recruit top age mature players. All the best clubs have done it and it's been a key part of their build and I feel that perhaps a coaching shake up, if it involves bringing in some impressive people at this time of their development could be just what the doctor ordered.
Neither Bolton or Silvagni are the reasons why Carlton are no good. It's going to take a really long time to recover from over a decade of really poor list management and completely rebuild a team with young players.
The next year or so that should be about complete depending on how well Carlton go at the next few drafts when it comes to bringing in mature age talent. But as I am saying, they need to get the players to agree to move to Victoria and impress them enough to come to Carlton.
In the long run I don't think changing coach will hurt things, it will be business as usual but I think Carlton's coaching profile could use a boost.
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"Everyone disagrees (I guess with his opinion that) Collingwood's list management has been good."
I think he is already having an impact. New head of football in Brad Lloyd was a good get and his management of membership and getting people to sign up for another tough season has been really good. Seems like a quality person. It will be interesting to see how they structure the coaching department with his influence.
Sacked after one season after bringing in 5 AFL quality players a few of them will be stars of the competition, nope.
Collingwood's recruitment has always been a benchmark. All the crap Buckley got over the years and crap from his own fan base nonetheless all looks so ridiculous now. Put together a fantastic list but let's make no mistake, Collingwood in the buckley era started out with a top of the table list and a pretty good list with players coming though and have been able to carry some really good players through from start to finish and the rebuild still took 7 years. Nothing against Collingwood, done a fantastic job, it's just that in this era of AFL footy it takes around 7 years to rebuild a list to top of the table.
You consider Carlton when starting the rebuild were bottom, no youth coming through, no foundation and probably only have 2 players to carry through to the end of their 7 year rebuild. Carlton are in their 4th year. Buckley in his 4th year finished 12th, after starting at the top after 4 years they were still fairly poor. So why are people expecting Carlton to be any better after 4 years starting at the very bottom.
Blues didn't just clean out the list they have cleaned out a lot of the departments, recruiting being one. SOS arrived to a bare room, I think it had Michael Jordan from the previous regime and that was it. SOS has brought the best recruiting, certainly the most hits, I have seen at Carlton since the early 90s.
Blues have only just finished rebuilding their recruiting department so it's still early days, SOS isn't even the GM of recruiting or list manager anymore.
Quite simply people are all getting way ahead of themselves.
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Cheers lol.
Please remind me of who the 5 quality AFL players are and which of them will be stars
don't worry I checked
In 2016, he brought in
Billie Smedts
Rhys Palmer
Marchbank
Pickett
The defense rests your honour
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Will all depend how he manages Jeanne and Bruce. If he tows the line they will let him hang around a few years, but if he doesn’t he’ll be let go pretty quickly. Will need to be an excellent diplomat. The prez learnt this pretty quick.
People love bagging Carlton for the pick swap. The way the media and people on here talk about it it's like we traded next years first rounder away and didn't get anything back.
Let's look at it from reality can we.
Carlton's pick 1 this year will be anywhere from picks 1-4.
Adelaide's pick will be from anywhere between picks 10-14.
Carlton drafted Stocker at 19 but rated him at 6. He slid because of a broken jaw and the strength of the draft.
Here's a trade scenario...
Would you trade Pick 1-4 for Pick 6 and Pick 10-14? If yes then that is what Carlton have done. I guess it depends on your clubs situation whether you would do that trade but for where Carlton are it's a good trade.
The stupid thing about all this is everyone is making it about Carlton beating Adelaide or Adelaide beating Carlton when it's not about that at all. It's about each club getting what they want and getting a good result or the best result for that club and I think that will be the outcome.
Adelaide get a pick upgrade and great. They had to give away a really early pick to get it but they might need an early pick because they will probably look to trade it because they are in their premiership window and will probably want a star to come in and help them. They will probably target Rankine or Lukosius to get them home.
Carlton get three first round picks in two years which is great because they are rebuilding their list and they need as many good quality players as they can. That's how hawthorn rebuilt through the draft and Carlton are manufacturing a similar path. Lots and lots of early picks.
In the end Carlton will probably trade pick 10-14 away for a mature age player and it's order will become irrelevant as that is what they would have done with their first anyway. If not, those picks should still yield a quality youngster but I am sure it will be on the trade table.
The way I see it both Adelaide and Carlton will be winners from this trade and both clubs will get what they want out of it.
Silvagni's first season was 2015 for a start.
Jacob Weitering, Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow and David Cunningham are all playing pretty good footy this season for 21 year olds. Jack Silvagni is adequate and will be a decent player in a decent team.
The rookies weren't anything special Glass-McCasker was a really promising athletic key defender who just had an endless amount of injuries and Gallucci is running around with Collingwood's reserves and Korcheck was a project ruck we we didn't end up needing.
Cdog71
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I dunno that Wallsy looking like an out patient from aged care facility is the look you need for the ‘Carlton Brand’.
I agree with you about that and also I think the move on Bolton was a bit about the look of it all, the way the media wouldn’t let it go.
I said earlier I thought the Adelaide first pick trade thing was reckless.
You could call it swagger I spose and thats Carlton
Now this is possible as it may be for many other clubs.
Carlton has though secured most of its premium talent for reasonable periods of time.
No key players coming out of contract this year and nothing that would have clubs scrambling for, next year either.
Now who really knows what the landscape will be like come mid 2021? We can pretend we know, but we don't really know, do we?
Who can't guarantee anything as to which club will be where come 2021?
People were talking about Melbourne as Premiership contenders only a few months ago. Things can change quickly and the CFC haven't a bad platform
Yeah there is some improvements to make there, needs a freshen up and that may well work. Only time will tell. Carlton are doing things a little differently and there simply is no avoiding being on the bottom for a long time and it's all about where they have come and what needs to be done to fix it.
I don't have too many issues with tinkering with things off field as long as it doesn't disrupt the plans although the plans are about to go into a second pase.
Carlton have been quietly improving the personnel over the last few years. It's like everything, can't all be done at once.
Brought in some really high profile people in their recruiting department over the last few seasons, got themselves a good CEO I believe and I believe Brad Lloyd will be a really good appointment as head of footy. Andrew Russell is a good one. I just feel the coaching does need a little spruce up. It's a shame Bolton could not be a part of it, I think he was a good person but end of the day profile does mean something, especially in an era of free agency, more interstate clubs and future pick trading where really good players change clubs a lot more.
Victoria is a really competitive market for players on the move, competition is fierce and with Carlton now at a stage of development where gaining those mature players is crucial, it's important to be able to impress them. Come see our facilities and meet our staff and be blown away kind of thing.
Cdog71
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I’m not bagging em I just thought it wasn’t a conservative approach and what you’ve laid out is the best way it could work out but not the only way.
I went down to see your vfl play Werribee Rnd 4 at Optus.
Stocker was playing I think but it wasn’t a good day for you guys and nobody really stood out.
My view is Silvagni will be treated a little differently compared to somebody not linked to the club.
You guys have got alot of talent, but you would expect it with your approach and whats come your way with picks but it’s not Silvagni alone it’s the stategy and approach from the club and whether or not it’s a model to follow.
It’s already cost one really good football person his career as a senior coach and maybe there will be a bit more of a shakeup at the end of the year.
Werribee was on youtube I think, it was a shocker for memory, got given a football lesson.
They are a funny VFL side, they have won a lot of games and are looking to play finals but rarely do individuals really stand out. It's always a very team effort with the Northern Blues.
Kerr kicks goals but can't get a game because of Curnow and McKay. Kennedy gets his 30 possessions but can't quite get ahead of guys like Dow etc. Garlett plays a role and plays well and doesn't stand out. Schumacher plays well but doesn't stand out. Goddard kills it but Jones, Weitering and not Casboult are ahead of him in a way. Stocker took to playing backline and getting 20 possessions a game straight away. Phillips plays well, takes marks, kicks goals wins the ruck but he's behind kreuzer. All the really young guys do nice things but as young guys do they don't do quite enough yet.
There are players there who play well but won't get a game because there are others ahead of them, you could bring them in and they would be fine, they just aren't screaming out loud enough for a game you could say.
Silvagni IMO is getting a game on merit. He started in the VFL this season and played quite a few good games before getting a senior game and holding it. I haven't seen that he gets treated differently, he just is what he is.
It's a different model that's for sure but it's forced. I'll agree that it's not ideal. Most successful clubs spend their 7 years trading in mature age players and using a lot of mid table draft picks. But they have a foundation and they don't need as many players as a club like Carlton does to both build a premiership contender and to build sustainable success.
The last club to go down this path was probably Hawthorn and even then it's not exactly the same. Hawthorn didn't have two extra clubs to contend with which diminishes the value of picks and they also had priority picks and they had a better foundation.
Considering Carlton's list at the start and how many players they had to bring in to become a premiership contender and sustain success there was no other path that could have been taken. Most clubs don't get themselves into a scenario this bad.
Lets come back to this thread in 2021 and we will see whether this has all worked. From what I have worked out. When you look at development timeframes and how many opportunities Carlton have had by then, that is when they should be a strong side. As we have seen with the Lions when a team hits their straps they jump quickly and Carlton will do that.
The biggest issues at this stage with Carlton is the physicality. The way footy is now, a big strong mature and athletic side without talent will beat an immature juvenile side with heaps of talent. I'm always seeing moments where a player fails to out body an opponent or fails to prevent an opposition from disposing of the footy in a tackle or Carlton players failing to take a tackle and dish it off or there is a lack of run or players just out of position to get their outside game going and it's these little things which are typical of young sides which really lets them down. Probably only just starting to see now with Silvagni's first draftees being 21 some maturity and good football from them. You take your first lot of draftees, in Carlton's case that's the 2015 21 year olds. You realise those players, regardless of talent, they will be 4 or 5 years away from maturity. But then you have the 2016, 17 and 18 draftees to hit their maturity too so it's a slow process.
I think Carlton lost patience and the coach copped it but it was just as much a strategic thing as anything. It always motivates the players as we saw with a win over the Lions. It may result in the club getting high profile people in which may lead to better mature age recruiting.
Broadening the discussion, i’d be curious to see how many picks inside say the top 20 when he was at GWS turned out to be busts, and which players recruited by other clubs with picks inside the same top 20 are still playing in the AFL today
I said he would have been sacked 3 years ago, 2019-3 = 2016
And if you reckon Jack Silvagni is adequate in a good team, you my friend are delusional.
If his name was Ned Nerk he would be playing amatuer football.
So going by this thread, I gather catlton fans will be devasted and consider it a massive loss to the club if Silvagni leaves at seasons end.. or huge mistake and totally unfair if in fact liddle gives him his marching orders ???
The 2016 draft was fine. Carlton's hit rate was still above average. Carlton's 2015 and 2016 drafts were excellent, a lot of young talent coming in. Those two years were massive influxes of talent. What your claiming is bizarre to say the least.
The 20 year olds from the 2016 draft
Main Draft
Petrevski-seton - Pretty good player, development rate is good and is right up there for that years draft class.
Fisher - Really good get, above average player and one of the better ones to come out of that draft at pick 27
Macreadie - Tall key position defender, played a lot of footy in his first year and was impressive but since then has had injuries and is coming back from that playing VFL and developing there as most 20 year old talls are. This guy is going to be a pretty good player when he matures make no mistake but needs to get fit and stay injury free.
Polson - Later pick and played some ok AFL games but at this stage doesn't seem to be going anywhere. He might be a bust.
Williamson - Late pick but played a lot of footy in his first season and played really well. Most of us have seen him as best 18. Fast attacking half back with a great kick, the last two seasons he's suffered ongoing back injuries. Would have been top talent otherwise but again is out of action. A 4th round pick which so many are saying we don't use and don't rate too...
Pat Kerr - Late picked key forward, played a few AFL games last season and did fairly well. He's a regular goal kicker in the VFL and is actually third for goals in the league. Unable to get a spot because McKay and Curnow are ahead of him.
Rookie
LeBois - Small forward who has spent a lot of time injured, hasn't really had a chance to get fit and find form ever. Still on the list.
Alex Silvagni - Played some really good games for us and brought leadership but his body broke down on him and he's since retired.
Gallucci - Good VFL player, small forward, given a chance, playing VFL for Collingwood I believe
Honestly that's really good. Two really good young players who have established themselves and are improving at a good rate. Two who have been really unlucky with injuries but are without doubt talented and one who is just unlucky and can't find a spot. One is probably a miss but was a late pick anyway. The rookies are typical of most rookies. One hasn't really had a run at it to develop his game, one gave us some service and leadership and retired and one wasn't good enough.
Trades
Palmer - Pick 135, didn't do himself many favors, was just a player
Pickett - Former pick 3, had heaps and heaps of talent but succumbed to injuries and retired this year. Was well worth pick 58. Would have justified his pick 3 but he suffered some shocking injuries.
Smedts - Was a really promising junior, he was worth a shot but didn't make it, he was steak knives in what became the Marchbank trade anyway.
Marchbank - Has played really good footy this season after not having a proper preseason. Always a talent but has proven himself.
Carlton traded some 4th rounders for players who haven't worked out, going back to that draft there isn't much in that round and if it wasn't for Williamson being injured, Carlton would have had one of the best players from that round. If we needed Kerr it would have been a fruitful round for us.
So I don't see your point. That's a really good draft. Yes it's been affected by injuries but that's more bad luck than anything. Take away the injuries there are 5 players who are definite best 22 in that draft and part of our long term future. You can't really help injuries they are a part of sport. If we end up with 4 players who become best 22 it's still an excellent draft.
Jack Silvagni is ok, particularly for a late pick. By your logic if a 21 year old is not a star they are no good and should be written off, that's delusional. I don't think it's clever to judge a 21 year old forward who plays in a side which has a weak midfield and struggles to get the ball to it's forwards at the best of times.
Silvagni was a decent TAC cup player, I recall him kicking 6 one game, he was a really late pick, he started this season in the VFL and got back in the side by playing a good consistent string of games and has held his spot by contributing adequately. There is no favoritism here, he is where he is because he's done what he's had to do. He's played some pretty good games when the team has functioned well and yes he has flaws but a lot of players, especially 21 year olds do. Next season like a lot of players, he will be 22 and it will be a defining season as to where his future is.
In terms of strategy yes it will be a loss. Silvagni has been able to bring a lot of extra top 30 picks to the club and more than many would be able to. This is how Hawthorn built the foundations to one of the great dynasties you will ever see and it will be the reason why Carlton will be strong when they are strong.
But I wouldn't be devastated. Carlton have built a solid recruitment team now and have some quality people there like Agresta (he's actually Carlton's List manager now), Brodie (he's actually Carlton's recruiting manager now) plus the three recruiting officers. Silvagni is in charge of strategy and has a role with list management and this is his strength so yes it would be a loss but he's probably not the main part of that team anymore.
There’s no point looking at the draft in isolation when talking about list management, it’s just as much about the players traded in or picked up under F/A. Comparing Carlton’s drafting with Hawthorn, Geelong or Collingwood is pointless because all of those teams had far worse picks than Carlton but were also much better at acquiring top shelf talent from other clubs rather than a bucketful of GWS rejects.
Hawthorn hard a lot more top 30 picks than Carlton had when it came to building their legendary team. I don't know about Collingwood but they have a fair few early picks and traded in a lot of players who were early picks.
In review, Hawthorn appear to have burnt a lot more top 30 picks than Carlton but they also brought in a lot of superstars as well. People forget that about them, they built their foundations mostly through the draft and with a hell of a lot of top 30 picks.
You need to look at things as a whole. that is how you look at list management.
As for free agency, it's done and dusted. The good players aren't leaving as free agents anymore, they are being traded and often traded out for multiple first round picks a year or two prior to their free agency coming up. Clubs have adjusted and are using future pick trading.
Carlton are only now at a stage where it's wise to trade for players and start using multiple draft picks to bring in premium players. Spending multiple early picks on gun individuals prior to this season would have been unwise of a club requiring around 25-30 good players to rebuild and build a foundation.
Carlton haven't missed much, they picks they used on mature age players who didn't turn out, a lot of the time there wasn't much there in that draft, they did not cost Carlton and Carlton did not want 18 year olds who can't play.
You sound like you are a really invested family member . I hope what you hope that he keeps his job for many more years to come , I mean he has been such a success so far, what could go wrong ?
Read my signature for worst trade ever. The club just keeps on giving.
Hawks won the flag in 2008. In the 5 drafts leading up to that they had:
2007
12 Rioli
29 Whitecross
2006
6 Thorp
24 Renouf
2005
3 Ellis
6 Muston
14 Birchall
18 Bailey
22 Dowler
2004
2 Roughead
5 Franklin
7 Lewis
21 Murphy
26 Little
14 top 30 picks in 5 years.
In the last 5 years Carlton had 13 picks in the top 30. But when you look at top 10 picks it's six apiece, though the Hawks never had the first pick and Carlton had 2.
The other small difference is after their 5 years of rebuilding the Hawks won the flag while Carlton are still heavy favourites for the spoon.
So why did the Hawks win a flag after 5 years while the only thing Carlton's list can win is a spoon? I guess only SOS knows.
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