Stephen Silvagni and Carlton

[captain cotch 9]

Lets be honest...If the list manager wasnt named Steven Silvagni he wouldnt be still at the club.
The esteem he is held at Carlton is the reason he is still employed there.
Carltons culture is the only one in that AFL that would allow this as well.
Joke of an proffesional organistion.

I have faith in Cain Liddle and IMO he will give SOS the ass sooner rather than later.

 

[La Dispute]

Exactly. I can’t see the distinction with someone like Aish, who had a single digit possession game, and s**t the bed on multiple occasions during the Grand Final.

He’s an average players, who’s now in his mid 20s and who’s role could be played by most players currently on a list.

 

[La Dispute]

Lets be honest...If the list manager wasnt named Steven Silvagni he wouldnt be still at the club.
The esteem he is held at Carlton is the reason he is still employed there.
Carltons culture is the only one in that AFL that would allow this as well.
Joke of an proffesional organistion.

I have faith in Cain Liddle and IMO he will give SOS the ass sooner rather than later.

Your list manager is paying Prestia 800k and Tom Lynch 1 mil, and they are both average, one-dimensional players.

Any blame apportioned to your list manager for your benign, paper-thin midfield, that is literally being beat up by all and sundry while you’re supposed to be in your premiership window?

Posters just don’t like SOS because Carlton supporters like him, and he towelled up their best key forwards back in his heyday. Richmond supporters also don’t like him because he ripped a first round pick from them for a meth-adled Yarran.

Look at St Kilda’s god awful rebuild to see what truly appalling list management looks like.

 

[Robertio]

Lets be honest...If the list manager wasnt named Steven Silvagni he wouldnt be still at the club.
The esteem he is held at Carlton is the reason he is still employed there.
Carltons culture is the only one in that AFL that would allow this as well.
Joke of an proffesional organistion.

I have faith in Cain Liddle and IMO he will give SOS the ass sooner rather than later.

What a nuff nuff post, you don't like Carlton or Silvagni but Cain Liddle is alright because he came from Richmond. Grow up.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

Then went and picked O’Brien and Dekoning and traded for Kennedy.... so basically has done nothing with those picks so far

not sure what you'd expect from a 19 year old ruckman to produce yet. riley o'brien just turned 23 and is only now just ready to play AFL.

o'brien is only 19 and has had a hit and miss season (mostly miss), but had his best game on the weekend. i'm hoping his slow start to his career was because of bolton's VFL grade ball movement. time will tell.

kennedy baffles me. He was probably the worst trade SOS has made and should now be criticized for it. The kid was playing well in the fully stacked GWS midfield in 2017, but now looks a mile behind being best 22 for carlton.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

Lets be honest...If the list manager wasnt named Steven Silvagni he wouldnt be still at the club.
The esteem he is held at Carlton is the reason he is still employed there.
Carltons culture is the only one in that AFL that would allow this as well.
Joke of an proffesional organistion.

I have faith in Cain Liddle and IMO he will give SOS the ass sooner rather than later.

carlton sacked brett ratten in 2012. being a club great didn't help him...

 

[Drewie11]

Nah Drewie, if your going to rubbish them you should know what your talking about. I'll give you 50-50 on Kennedy.

I’m actually not rubbishing them at all, I’m just saying to your fellow supporter that 2 first round picks for a “sanfl” player is great to say and all but the 2 first round picks aren’t an improvement on Gibbs yet.

I think O’Brien will be a decent 100 to 150 gamer and I have no idea about Dekoning at all. Carlton supporters seem to think he is tracking pretty good so that’s all I can go by.

As for Kennedy, I just don’t see him being at Carlton in 3 years time

 

[gbatman]

Let's put the whole Silvagni is to blame for Carlton being down the bottom once and for all. At least for those who know the game and understand player development and list building time frames and can do the maths etc.

A lot of people know a little bit about Carlton's list and that's a bad thing. Silvagni has done a really good job of a really massive and ongoing task. It just has not equated to winning because we have rebuilt through youth and there has not been enough time passed.

Silvagni arrived, the list needed over 30 good young players to be added to it to be sustainable and competitive. It's been 4 years. You can't bring 30 odd good players in in 4 years and have them develop into competent AFL players when it usually takes around 4 or 5 years for a player to become influential. The fact Carlton have as many quality players under 23 is a credit to him. You can't expect those players to be winning the team games, not at that age, some will but most players aren't ready for AFL at that point.

The list was stuffed and unable to be fixed quickly when Silvagni started work on it. If it had a good foundation of guys in their early 20s who could really play then sure, built the list up quicker with mature players but it didn't. It was old, poor quality and had a gap of around 10 years with virtually no recruitment.

Below is our drafting history and THE reason why Carlton are down the bottom and have been for years.

Carlton's current list is ok, the team is poor. The team is not poor because the list is poor, it's poor because a lot of the players are either too young or too old. 22-30 is how old AFL players are in their prime. Carlton's team badly lacks 22-30 year olds. They are mostly younger or older or barely 22.

Drafting History

Coach: Ratten
Recruiter: Wayne Hughes

2006 (30-31 year olds)
Gibbs - Good player, traded for kids etc.
Hampson - recruited a project ruck at pick 17, traded out.
Grigg - average player traded and retired.
Austin - bust
Benjamin - bust
Anderson - bust

Jacobs - traded away
Jamison - good value rookie, body didn't last long, good old fashion defender.

2007 Draft (29-30 year olds)
Kreuzer - Reasonable player, probably don't take ruckmen with early picks.
Browne - No Good.
Armfield - Good ordinary player, long retired.

Joseph - ok player, didn't last.
Ellard - ok player, didn't last
plus others

2008 (28-29 year olds)
Yarran - Talented, personality problems, traded out never got the best out of himself, long gone.
Robinson - Trier, maturity problems, lack of leadership around him, traded out for nothing, only now playing with maturity.
O'Keefe - bust, always injured
Tiller - bust

Garlett - Average player, traded out, struggling to keep his career going
5 absolute busts not worth mentioning

2009 (27-28 year olds)
Lucas - bust
Davies - bust
Kerr - bust

Casboult - Handy journeyman
White - Was ok filling a role
Tuohy - Fairly good player traded out.
Plus 3 busts not worth a mention

2010 (26-27 year olds)
Watson - Bust
McCarthy - Bust
Mitchell - Bust
McInness - Bust
Duigan - Handy mature age player, long retired

Curnow - Drafted a bit older, been a good handy B Grade midfielder.
4 more Busts, what a year...

Chris Rogers promoted to head recruiter mid 2011

2011 (25-26 year olds)
22 - Bootsma - Bust
Rowe - Good journeyman
Buckley - Bust

Bell - was ok, C grade mid.
2 others not notable

2012 (24-25 year olds)
11- Menzel - Bust
Temay - Bust
Graham - Bust

List decay has begun to set in and Ratten is sacked...

Mick Malthouse takes over as Coach
Great but the coach isn't the problem, list is a runaway freight train by now...

2013 (23-24 year olds)
13. Cripps - Superstar
Giles - Bust
Holman - B grader at another club

2014 (22-23 year olds)
19. Boekhorst - Bust
28. Viojo-Rainbow - Bust
Smith - Bust
Foster - Bust

Gowers - Partial bust, fringe player at Bulldogs
2 others not notable

Silvagni Appointed as list manager
Bolton appointed as Coach
Long job of bottom dwelling, Bolton unlikely to see it out...

2015 (21-22 year olds)
1 - Weitering - Developing good young player.
10 - McKay - Developing good young player
12 - Curnow - mostly developed good young player
23 - Cuningham - developing good young player
Silvagni - fairly reasonable fringe player, better in a good side

No rookies

2016 (20-21)
6 - SPS - Talented young player but still developing.
27 - Fisher - Very talented young player still developing
Macreadie - Talented young player who's had a lot of injuries
Polson - Not looking good
Williamson - Talented player, always injured
Kerr - Has some talent but no spot for him as a key forward

LeBois - Has some talent but has had a lot of injuries
Alex Silvagni - Older retired player
Gallucci - Bust

2017 (19-20)
3 - Dow - Looking like a Slightly above B Grade player but lots of developing
10 - O'Brien - Potential bust but too early to judge, played some good footy, very raw
30 - DeKoning - Talented but injured, expecting good things
Schumacher - Has some talent but potential bust at this stage
Garlett - Probable bust

Shaw - Bust

Michael Agresta comes on Board

2018 (18-19)
1 - Welsh - Superstar
19 - Stocker - Looks good anything from a good solid player to star.
Silvagni - Very raw
O'Dwyer - Very raw

Goddard - Capable mature player
Bugg - Retired

Gibbons - Playing games, good games in the midfield of late
Cottrell - Been out all year, has played a couple of good VFL games since returning, looks promising
DeLuca - WAFL star just arrived from the mid season draft


Let's compare with the best...
Hawthorn Picks under 30 2001-2010

2001
Pick 20 - Elstone - 0 games

2002
8 - Luke Brennan - 28 games

2003
25 - Harry Miller - 18 games

2004
2 - Roughead
5 - Franklin
7 - Lewis
21 - Murphy - 112 average player
26 - Little - 1 game

2005
3 - Ellis - 120 games no star but ok player
6 - Dowler - 16 games
14 - Birchall
18 - Bailey - 43 games just a player
22 - Muston - 13 games

2006
6 - Thorp - Bust
24 - Renouf - 68 games average player

2007
12 - Rioli
29 - Whitecross - Good ordinary player

2008
16 - Schoenmakers

2009


2010
19 - Smith

Conclusion
Silvagni's drafting is actually comparable to Hawthorn's who stuffed up a lot of early picks but also really nailed some as well. Hawthorn had a huge amount of picks in the 30s and that's how they built their foundation and Carlton are doing something similar although they have had less prime picks.

A quick fix was not an option, it could not have possibly lead anywhere good, Carlton required too many players to rebuild with mature players. It would lead to an overpaid mid table side unable to go further like we had with Ratten. A quick rebuild would have stuffed Carlton right up.

Again, Carlton side being bottom is not because it lacks quality, it's due to a lack of 22-30 year olds. That is due to Carlton's drafting history between 2006 and 2014 which I have posted and really doesn't take a genius to see how bad that is. Probably the worst 10 years of drafting by any club.

Carlton's list and contracts were an enormous problem when Silvagni arrived. They were a bottom side when he arrived. Club had to have a clean out. They were old and needed to rebuild their young foundation of which they had just Docherty and Cripps. It needed to be done so that they could build a team which could be capable of sustained and high success.

Most rebuilds take around 7 years in this age of football give or take. Buckley at Collingwood, Scott at Geelong, Hardwick at Richmond have all gone down this path. Rebuilds in this modern era of footy if done well don't mean bottoming out, they generally mean a slight drop perhaps with the odd bottom out or mediocre seasons from when you start. A lot of teams can do the 7 year rebuild and only drop a little from where they are, but Carlton were already bottom and a slight drop from bottom is bottom.

For Carlton, they had already bottomed out and a slight drop meant becoming very very bad. Carlton are in their 4th season of a 7 year rebuild. They have not had that jump up yet but they will.

Many teams in this age rebuild and have success by bringing in a lot of mature age players. Carlton have been unable to do that as they are starting down the bottom and need to build a base. Clubs who rebuild with mature age players already have a strong base of good players, many who they will carry through to the end of their rebuild, Carlton have not had that luxury.

Silvagni's ability to get Carlton extra high draft picks and use most of them well has been a credit and the rewards of that are yet to be really seen but they will be.

People who believe Silvagni has done a bad job and that Carlton should be winning games know very little about football, player development and Carlton's situation.

Carlton's list is only just now at the stage where they must start bringing in mature age talent.

Silvagni's recruiting is not perfect but have a look at Hawthorn's in their rebuild, it's lucky they had a mountain of early picks because they drafted some stars and built their foundations with top 30 picks but they burnt a lot of them as well. SOS has not burnt as many top 30 picks.

People expecting Carlton to be good now are asking Carlton to do the impossible. Bring in 25-30 players all young enough to make the journey and all developed enough (over 22), to be able to stand up to AFL football. That's what you're asking of Silvagni and it's impossible.

Carlton should pick up and be playing decent football in 2020. It's likely to be another development year but they will be alright. 2021 they will be better, potentially a lot better. 2022 Carlton will peak and be rather strong strong.

It's too early for the young players of which nearly all our recruits are to really impact games on a regular basis, let them get to a decent age and that will happen.

Carlton have structured their contracts and list so that when they are attractive enough to recruit prime age top talent they will be able to. This IMO is a big challenge and it's going to be the make or break moment. IMO Carltons foundations are laid, now the building that really brings things home takes place but it's going to be challenging.

Like it or not Carlton are still getting over their horror recruiting past and are taking the long road to do it. They want to build a really deep team that has time and will be around for a long while and will be able to go through rebuilds while remaining competitive. The only way to do that is go the long rebuild via young players and doing it that way means around 5 years of not really showing much improvement then a few of climbing the ladder.

Silvagni, if you're going to bag the guy out, perhaps first do a bit of a review and have a look at his work. He's brought a lot of young players in, most of whom are pretty good. There are some busts but that is footy, even the best sides have plenty of busts. It's totally unrealistic to expect a recruiter to hit all their marks and judging players before they have had a reasonable time to mature is completely ridiculous.

Carlton are on track and will come good but not now. Too early for what Carlton are doing and I'm glad they are doing it this way.

 

[Leeda]

He strikes me as a second in command?..SOS that is.

 

[TheShardMan]

Let's put the whole Silvagni is to blame for Carlton being down the bottom once and for all. At least for those who know the game and understand player development and list building time frames and can do the maths etc.

A lot of people know a little bit about Carlton's list and that's a bad thing. Silvagni has done a really good job of a really massive and ongoing task. It just has not equated to winning because we have rebuilt through youth and there has not been enough time passed.

Silvagni arrived, the list needed over 30 good young players to be added to it to be sustainable and competitive. It's been 4 years. You can't bring 30 odd good players in in 4 years and have them develop into competent AFL players when it usually takes around 4 or 5 years for a player to become influential. The fact Carlton have as many quality players under 23 is a credit to him. You can't expect those players to be winning the team games, not at that age, some will but most players aren't ready for AFL at that point.

The list was stuffed and unable to be fixed quickly when Silvagni started work on it. If it had a good foundation of guys in their early 20s who could really play then sure, built the list up quicker with mature players but it didn't. It was old, poor quality and had a gap of around 10 years with virtually no recruitment.

Below is our drafting history and THE reason why Carlton are down the bottom and have been for years.

Carlton's current list is ok, the team is poor. The team is not poor because the list is poor, it's poor because a lot of the players are either too young or too old. 22-30 is how old AFL players are in their prime. Carlton's team badly lacks 22-30 year olds. They are mostly younger or older or barely 22.

Drafting History

Coach: Ratten
Recruiter: Wayne Hughes

2006 (30-31 year olds)
Gibbs - Good player, traded for kids etc.
Hampson - recruited a project ruck at pick 17, traded out.
Grigg - average player traded and retired.
Austin - bust
Benjamin - bust
Anderson - bust

Jacobs - traded away
Jamison - good value rookie, body didn't last long, good old fashion defender.

2007 Draft (29-30 year olds)
Kreuzer - Reasonable player, probably don't take ruckmen with early picks.
Browne - No Good.
Armfield - Good ordinary player, long retired.

Joseph - ok player, didn't last.
Ellard - ok player, didn't last
plus others

2008 (28-29 year olds)
Yarran - Talented, personality problems, traded out never got the best out of himself, long gone.
Robinson - Trier, maturity problems, lack of leadership around him, traded out for nothing, only now playing with maturity.
O'Keefe - bust, always injured
Tiller - bust

Garlett - Average player, traded out, struggling to keep his career going
5 absolute busts not worth mentioning

2009 (27-28 year olds)
Lucas - bust
Davies - bust
Kerr - bust

Casboult - Handy journeyman
White - Was ok filling a role
Tuohy - Fairly good player traded out.
Plus 3 busts not worth a mention

2010 (26-27 year olds)
Watson - Bust
McCarthy - Bust
Mitchell - Bust
McInness - Bust
Duigan - Handy mature age player, long retired

Curnow - Drafted a bit older, been a good handy B Grade midfielder.
4 more Busts, what a year...

Chris Rogers promoted to head recruiter mid 2011

2011 (25-26 year olds)
22 - Bootsma - Bust
Rowe - Good journeyman
Buckley - Bust

Bell - was ok, C grade mid.
2 others not notable

2012 (24-25 year olds)
11- Menzel - Bust
Temay - Bust
Graham - Bust

List decay has begun to set in and Ratten is sacked...

Mick Malthouse takes over as Coach
Great but the coach isn't the problem, list is a runaway freight train by now...

2013 (23-24 year olds)
13. Cripps - Superstar
Giles - Bust
Holman - B grader at another club

2014 (22-23 year olds)
19. Boekhorst - Bust
28. Viojo-Rainbow - Bust
Smith - Bust
Foster - Bust

Gowers - Partial bust, fringe player at Bulldogs
2 others not notable

Silvagni Appointed as list manager
Bolton appointed as Coach
Long job of bottom dwelling, Bolton unlikely to see it out...

2015 (21-22 year olds)
1 - Weitering - Developing good young player.
10 - McKay - Developing good young player
12 - Curnow - mostly developed good young player
23 - Cuningham - developing good young player
Silvagni - fairly reasonable fringe player, better in a good side

No rookies

2016 (20-21)
6 - SPS - Talented young player but still developing.
27 - Fisher - Very talented young player still developing
Macreadie - Talented young player who's had a lot of injuries
Polson - Not looking good
Williamson - Talented player, always injured
Kerr - Has some talent but no spot for him as a key forward

LeBois - Has some talent but has had a lot of injuries
Alex Silvagni - Older retired player
Gallucci - Bust

2017 (19-20)
3 - Dow - Looking like a Slightly above B Grade player but lots of developing
10 - O'Brien - Potential bust but too early to judge, played some good footy, very raw
30 - DeKoning - Talented but injured, expecting good things
Schumacher - Has some talent but potential bust at this stage
Garlett - Probable bust

Shaw - Bust

Michael Agresta comes on Board

2018 (18-19)
1 - Welsh - Superstar
19 - Stocker - Looks good anything from a good solid player to star.
Silvagni - Very raw
O'Dwyer - Very raw

Goddard - Capable mature player
Bugg - Retired

Gibbons - Playing games, good games in the midfield of late
Cottrell - Been out all year, has played a couple of good VFL games since returning, looks promising
DeLuca - WAFL star just arrived from the mid season draft


Let's compare with the best...
Hawthorn Picks under 30 2001-2010

2001
Pick 20 - Elstone - 0 games

2002
8 - Luke Brennan - 28 games

2003
25 - Harry Miller - 18 games

2004
2 - Roughead
5 - Franklin
7 - Lewis
21 - Murphy - 112 average player
26 - Little - 1 game

2005
3 - Ellis - 120 games no star but ok player
6 - Dowler - 16 games
14 - Birchall
18 - Bailey - 43 games just a player
22 - Muston - 13 games

2006
6 - Thorp - Bust
24 - Renouf - 68 games average player

2007
12 - Rioli
29 - Whitecross - Good ordinary player

2008
16 - Schoenmakers

2009


2010
19 - Smith

Conclusion
Silvagni's drafting is actually comparable to Hawthorn's who stuffed up a lot of early picks but also really nailed some as well. Hawthorn had a huge amount of picks in the 30s and that's how they built their foundation and Carlton are doing something similar although they have had less prime picks.

A quick fix was not an option, it could not have possibly lead anywhere good, Carlton required too many players to rebuild with mature players. It would lead to an overpaid mid table side unable to go further like we had with Ratten. A quick rebuild would have stuffed Carlton right up.

Again, Carlton side being bottom is not because it lacks quality, it's due to a lack of 22-30 year olds. That is due to Carlton's drafting history between 2006 and 2014 which I have posted and really doesn't take a genius to see how bad that is. Probably the worst 10 years of drafting by any club.

Carlton's list and contracts were an enormous problem when Silvagni arrived. They were a bottom side when he arrived. Club had to have a clean out. They were old and needed to rebuild their young foundation of which they had just Docherty and Cripps. It needed to be done so that they could build a team which could be capable of sustained and high success.

Most rebuilds take around 7 years in this age of football give or take. Buckley at Collingwood, Scott at Geelong, Hardwick at Richmond have all gone down this path. Rebuilds in this modern era of footy if done well don't mean bottoming out, they generally mean a slight drop perhaps with the odd bottom out or mediocre seasons from when you start. A lot of teams can do the 7 year rebuild and only drop a little from where they are, but Carlton were already bottom and a slight drop from bottom is bottom.

For Carlton, they had already bottomed out and a slight drop meant becoming very very bad. Carlton are in their 4th season of a 7 year rebuild. They have not had that jump up yet but they will.

Many teams in this age rebuild and have success by bringing in a lot of mature age players. Carlton have been unable to do that as they are starting down the bottom and need to build a base. Clubs who rebuild with mature age players already have a strong base of good players, many who they will carry through to the end of their rebuild, Carlton have not had that luxury.

Silvagni's ability to get Carlton extra high draft picks and use most of them well has been a credit and the rewards of that are yet to be really seen but they will be.

People who believe Silvagni has done a bad job and that Carlton should be winning games know very little about football, player development and Carlton's situation.

Carlton's list is only just now at the stage where they must start bringing in mature age talent.

Silvagni's recruiting is not perfect but have a look at Hawthorn's in their rebuild, it's lucky they had a mountain of early picks because they drafted some stars and built their foundations with top 30 picks but they burnt a lot of them as well. SOS has not burnt as many top 30 picks.

People expecting Carlton to be good now are asking Carlton to do the impossible. Bring in 25-30 players all young enough to make the journey and all developed enough (over 22), to be able to stand up to AFL football. That's what you're asking of Silvagni and it's impossible.

Carlton should pick up and be playing decent football in 2020. It's likely to be another development year but they will be alright. 2021 they will be better, potentially a lot better. 2022 Carlton will peak and be rather strong strong.

It's too early for the young players of which nearly all our recruits are to really impact games on a regular basis, let them get to a decent age and that will happen.

Carlton have structured their contracts and list so that when they are attractive enough to recruit prime age top talent they will be able to. This IMO is a big challenge and it's going to be the make or break moment. IMO Carltons foundations are laid, now the building that really brings things home takes place but it's going to be challenging.

Like it or not Carlton are still getting over their horror recruiting past and are taking the long road to do it. They want to build a really deep team that has time and will be around for a long while and will be able to go through rebuilds while remaining competitive. The only way to do that is go the long rebuild via young players and doing it that way means around 5 years of not really showing much improvement then a few of climbing the ladder.

Silvagni, if you're going to bag the guy out, perhaps first do a bit of a review and have a look at his work. He's brought a lot of young players in, most of whom are pretty good. There are some busts but that is footy, even the best sides have plenty of busts. It's totally unrealistic to expect a recruiter to hit all their marks and judging players before they have had a reasonable time to mature is completely ridiculous.

Carlton are on track and will come good but not now. Too early for what Carlton are doing and I'm glad they are doing it this way.

appreciate the long post. but my complaint and that of a few others is silvagnis drafting, recruting, trading of players from pick late 20s onwards. inc fa pickups dfa etc.

the way he treats those later list spots smacks of arrogance. what did he call mullet, oshea, shaw etc? picks to play vfl to help the kids, not long term picks. Its his language, Sumner and Pickett, 'oh those were back end picks' etc. no other club treats late picks with such disregard its as if he only cares about those early picks and when u see his language and actions, can u blame ppl for coming to this conclusion?

surely this affects the list as well. u cant have new players coming in thinking theyre not as worthy as those drafted or traded in at a higher price. and the mature players hes traded for have not been what he should have targeted. just recently mcgovern, fasolo, do they come across as mature players that can lead a young group through their actions, both on and off field? lang, came to the club reluctantly from geelong, didnt want to be traded. Not to mention all the ex gws guys who he picked up who havent realised their potential either through form, injury or whatever reason fact is sos has hardly brought in anyone from late in the draft or traded/picked up any good value.

no one is saying u dont have a talented young core group. but no other club has done as poorly from later in the draft or trade than carlton. And that is the main reason why theyre still at the bottom. and if attitudes dont change, and recruitment of those types dont improve, dont expect things to suddenly click together. aint that simple.

 

[TheShardMan]

Look at St Kilda’s god awful rebuild to see what truly appalling list management looks like.

I feel sick for defending the aints here. but eventhough their rebuild hasnt gone to plan, they havent been as uncompetitive as the blues. heck even this year theyve had a few injuries and they picked up parker late in the draft and wilkie as a rookie whove both played every game this year and looked ok. not to mention rowan marshall, rookie pick 2 years ago. Their number 1 ruckman now and his stats are pretty incredible.

blues absolutely should be ahead of the saints, but the difference is theyve found value from late picks and carlton haven't. kills me to say this but in no way have they been as uncompetitive as carlton in recent history. i hope it changes asap.

 

[Leeda]

I am being nice to the blues when they don't deserve any niceness.. they have bought this on themselves..

 

[OniAu]

Are Carlton fans really defending SOS after that putrid live trade of draft picks. Up there with #inhirdwetrust

 

[Leeda]

9

Are Carlton fans really defending SOS after that putrid live trade of draft picks. Up there with #inhirdwetrust

no more than we defend our Sam.Clarkoo,Hodgy..Damon spell check struts it's stuff n,,battles hard with reality

 

[La Dispute]

I feel sick for defending the aints here. but eventhough their rebuild hasnt gone to plan, they havent been as uncompetitive as the blues. heck even this year theyve had a few injuries and they picked up parker late in the draft and wilkie as a rookie whove both played every game this year and looked ok. not to mention rowan marshall, rookie pick 2 years ago. Their number 1 ruckman now and his stats are pretty incredible.

blues absolutely should be ahead of the saints, but the difference is theyve found value from late picks and carlton haven't. kills me to say this but in no way have they been as uncompetitive as carlton in recent history. i hope it changes asap.

The Saints have been bringing in draft picks and cycling out mature players since they last made the finals in 2011, which they had plenty of due to making the grand final twice (thrice) in 2009-2010.

Since then they’ve wasted first round draft picks on Tom Lee and Tom Hickey, torched their first pick (McCartin) in 2014 after turning down picks 4 and 7 from GWS, drafted Billings when Bontempelli was available, and their pseudo free agent is Dan Hannebery, who they are paying 800k pa to pot around in the VFL. Their two top 10 picks from 2017; Coffield and Clark also look very average, and are struggling to get a game.

They should be at the level where they are playing finals, but they’ve burned many top picks, reflected in the complete absence of top end talent on their list, and their inability to beat any team in the top 8.

I agree they’ve done far better with rookie selections and scraped around some good players with later picks (both via the draft and through trades) but they’re perpetually treading water, and their list profile is showing a clear lack of direction and resolve to actually compete with the best sides in the league. It seems every season they’re crossing their fingers and hoping to make the finals by default.

SOS’ list management hasn’t been perfect, but the lack of scrutiny on whoever’s been compiling such a mediocre list at the Saints is astounding.

 

[kickballfoot]

SOS has done an OK job so far at Carlton, his best 4/5 trades/selections far out weigh his 5 worst.

Tom Bell (currently playing Suburban footy) & Second Round Pick for Charlie Curnow
Lochie Henderson (currently playing VFL) for pick that selected Harry McKay
Troy Menzel (currently playing SANFL) for Plowman (serviceable)
Gibbs (currently playing SANFL for 2 first round picks (still to early to judge second year players selected with those picks)
Yarran (currently in jail) for Cuningham who is showing signs after plenty of injuries in his first 2/3 years

Mature age picks in the back end of the draft have been horrible which will be hopefully rectified with Agresta coming over from Sydney (great at selecting in the rookie draft).

Don't know why SOS gets so much heat, if you go through every teams recent drafting history you can pick apart things they should have done differently.
Dodoro has been at Essendon for 10 plus years and they haven't won a final in that time, yet he seems to escape any scrutiny.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

I feel sick for defending the aints here. but eventhough their rebuild hasnt gone to plan, they havent been as uncompetitive as the blues. heck even this year theyve had a few injuries and they picked up parker late in the draft and wilkie as a rookie whove both played every game this year and looked ok. not to mention rowan marshall, rookie pick 2 years ago. Their number 1 ruckman now and his stats are pretty incredible.

blues absolutely should be ahead of the saints, but the difference is theyve found value from late picks and carlton haven't. kills me to say this but in no way have they been as uncompetitive as carlton in recent history. i hope it changes asap.

the saints rebuild started in 2012. they should be a lot further ahead of us than they are. and they probably would be if not for some pretty rotten luck on the injury front. I still think carlton has more star power than the saints though, their list just bats a lot deeper.

people need to understand though that when most teams intentionally bottom out it's because their list has gone past their 'flag window'. that was the case for the saints after lyon left and freo after 2015, and a whole bunch of other teams.

But such was the mismanagement of the previous regime that carlton found themselves in the uniquely embarrassing position of having to bottom out from the starting point of a wooden spoon. in 2015 we had maybe 7-8 good players then 50 feet of crap then 20 or so old C- or worse players. it's very difficult to find the balance of trading some good players for good picks to inject more talent while acquiring players to replace those guys without giving up picks to make you competitive in the near term while the kids develop.

 

[TheShardMan]

The Saints have been bringing in draft picks and cycling out mature players since they last made the finals in 2011, which they had plenty of due to making the grand final twice (thrice) in 2009-2010.

Since then they’ve wasted first round draft picks on Tom Lee and Tom Hickey, torched their first pick (McCartin) in 2014 after turning down picks 4 and 7 from GWS, drafted Billings when Bontempelli was available, and their pseudo free agent is Dan Hannebery, who they are paying 800k pa to pot around in the VFL. Their two top 10 picks from 2017; Coffield and Clark also look very average, and are struggling to get a game.

They should be at the level where they are playing finals, but they’ve burned many top picks, reflected in the complete absence of top end talent on their list, and their inability to beat any team in the top 8.

I agree they’ve done far better with rookie selections and scraped around some good players with later picks (both via the draft and through trades) but they’re perpetually treading water, and their list profile is showing a clear lack of direction and resolve to actually compete with the best sides in the league. It seems every season they’re crossing their fingers and hoping to make the finals by default.

SOS’ list management hasn’t been perfect, but the lack of scrutiny on whoever’s been compiling such a mediocre list at the Saints is astounding.

the saints rebuild started in 2012. they should be a lot further ahead of us than they are. and they probably would be if not for some pretty rotten luck on the injury front. I still think carlton has more star power than the saints though, their list just bats a lot deeper.

people need to understand though that when most teams intentionally bottom out it's because their list has gone past their 'flag window'. that was the case for the saints after lyon left and freo after 2015, and a whole bunch of other teams.

But such was the mismanagement of the previous regime that carlton found themselves in the uniquely embarrassing position of having to bottom out from the starting point of a wooden spoon. in 2015 we had maybe 7-8 good players then 50 feet of crap then 20 or so old C- or worse players. it's very difficult to find the balance of trading some good players for good picks to inject more talent while acquiring players to replace those guys without giving up picks to make you competitive in the near term while the kids develop.

good reply fellas. always hated the saints since i was a kid. my first trip to melb in 95 with my nan and pop watched the blues lose to them at waverly when we were undefeated. cried the whole trip. lol. hated em ever since.

really hope sos can draft or trade in better mature players. no more unproven guys who were drafted early. get proven hard nuts who can protect and show the kids the right way to train and play. Doesnt have to be josh kelly, Coniglio types. aim for a luke parker, crouch brother. or even a level below like zak jones, Dunstan, jack martin, libba. lets see how the rest of the year plays out.

 

[Thetrader15]

Your list manager is paying Prestia 800k and Tom Lynch 1 mil, and they are both average, one-dimensional players.

Any blame apportioned to your list manager for your benign, paper-thin midfield, that is literally being beat up by all and sundry while you’re supposed to be in your premiership window?

Did you miss 2017 altogether? They've flown out the window

Prestia has done a stack more than McGovern who has kicked 15 goals all year. Prestia averages 25 touches this year.
Lynch has been disappointing but scored 26 goals this year

Sure call Richmond's midfield paper thin, but they've won 7 games this year...7...Carton have to go back to 2016 to win 7 games.

 

[Cdog71]

Let's put the whole Silvagni is to blame for Carlton being down the bottom once and for all. At least for those who know the game and understand player development and list building time frames and can do the maths etc.

A lot of people know a little bit about Carlton's list and that's a bad thing. Silvagni has done a really good job of a really massive and ongoing task. It just has not equated to winning because we have rebuilt through youth and there has not been enough time passed.

Silvagni arrived, the list needed over 30 good young players to be added to it to be sustainable and competitive. It's been 4 years. You can't bring 30 odd good players in in 4 years and have them develop into competent AFL players when it usually takes around 4 or 5 years for a player to become influential. The fact Carlton have as many quality players under 23 is a credit to him. You can't expect those players to be winning the team games, not at that age, some will but most players aren't ready for AFL at that point.

The list was stuffed and unable to be fixed quickly when Silvagni started work on it. If it had a good foundation of guys in their early 20s who could really play then sure, built the list up quicker with mature players but it didn't. It was old, poor quality and had a gap of around 10 years with virtually no recruitment.

Below is our drafting history and THE reason why Carlton are down the bottom and have been for years.

Carlton's current list is ok, the team is poor. The team is not poor because the list is poor, it's poor because a lot of the players are either too young or too old. 22-30 is how old AFL players are in their prime. Carlton's team badly lacks 22-30 year olds. They are mostly younger or older or barely 22.

Drafting History

Coach: Ratten
Recruiter: Wayne Hughes

2006 (30-31 year olds)
Gibbs - Good player, traded for kids etc.
Hampson - recruited a project ruck at pick 17, traded out.
Grigg - average player traded and retired.
Austin - bust
Benjamin - bust
Anderson - bust

Jacobs - traded away
Jamison - good value rookie, body didn't last long, good old fashion defender.

2007 Draft (29-30 year olds)
Kreuzer - Reasonable player, probably don't take ruckmen with early picks.
Browne - No Good.
Armfield - Good ordinary player, long retired.

Joseph - ok player, didn't last.
Ellard - ok player, didn't last
plus others

2008 (28-29 year olds)
Yarran - Talented, personality problems, traded out never got the best out of himself, long gone.
Robinson - Trier, maturity problems, lack of leadership around him, traded out for nothing, only now playing with maturity.
O'Keefe - bust, always injured
Tiller - bust

Garlett - Average player, traded out, struggling to keep his career going
5 absolute busts not worth mentioning

2009 (27-28 year olds)
Lucas - bust
Davies - bust
Kerr - bust

Casboult - Handy journeyman
White - Was ok filling a role
Tuohy - Fairly good player traded out.
Plus 3 busts not worth a mention

2010 (26-27 year olds)
Watson - Bust
McCarthy - Bust
Mitchell - Bust
McInness - Bust
Duigan - Handy mature age player, long retired

Curnow - Drafted a bit older, been a good handy B Grade midfielder.
4 more Busts, what a year...

Chris Rogers promoted to head recruiter mid 2011

2011 (25-26 year olds)
22 - Bootsma - Bust
Rowe - Good journeyman
Buckley - Bust

Bell - was ok, C grade mid.
2 others not notable

2012 (24-25 year olds)
11- Menzel - Bust
Temay - Bust
Graham - Bust

List decay has begun to set in and Ratten is sacked...

Mick Malthouse takes over as Coach
Great but the coach isn't the problem, list is a runaway freight train by now...

2013 (23-24 year olds)
13. Cripps - Superstar
Giles - Bust
Holman - B grader at another club

2014 (22-23 year olds)
19. Boekhorst - Bust
28. Viojo-Rainbow - Bust
Smith - Bust
Foster - Bust

Gowers - Partial bust, fringe player at Bulldogs
2 others not notable

Silvagni Appointed as list manager
Bolton appointed as Coach
Long job of bottom dwelling, Bolton unlikely to see it out...

2015 (21-22 year olds)
1 - Weitering - Developing good young player.
10 - McKay - Developing good young player
12 - Curnow - mostly developed good young player
23 - Cuningham - developing good young player
Silvagni - fairly reasonable fringe player, better in a good side

No rookies

2016 (20-21)
6 - SPS - Talented young player but still developing.
27 - Fisher - Very talented young player still developing
Macreadie - Talented young player who's had a lot of injuries
Polson - Not looking good
Williamson - Talented player, always injured
Kerr - Has some talent but no spot for him as a key forward

LeBois - Has some talent but has had a lot of injuries
Alex Silvagni - Older retired player
Gallucci - Bust

2017 (19-20)
3 - Dow - Looking like a Slightly above B Grade player but lots of developing
10 - O'Brien - Potential bust but too early to judge, played some good footy, very raw
30 - DeKoning - Talented but injured, expecting good things
Schumacher - Has some talent but potential bust at this stage
Garlett - Probable bust

Shaw - Bust

Michael Agresta comes on Board

2018 (18-19)
1 - Welsh - Superstar
19 - Stocker - Looks good anything from a good solid player to star.
Silvagni - Very raw
O'Dwyer - Very raw

Goddard - Capable mature player
Bugg - Retired

Gibbons - Playing games, good games in the midfield of late
Cottrell - Been out all year, has played a couple of good VFL games since returning, looks promising
DeLuca - WAFL star just arrived from the mid season draft


Let's compare with the best...
Hawthorn Picks under 30 2001-2010

2001
Pick 20 - Elstone - 0 games

2002
8 - Luke Brennan - 28 games

2003
25 - Harry Miller - 18 games

2004
2 - Roughead
5 - Franklin
7 - Lewis
21 - Murphy - 112 average player
26 - Little - 1 game

2005
3 - Ellis - 120 games no star but ok player
6 - Dowler - 16 games
14 - Birchall
18 - Bailey - 43 games just a player
22 - Muston - 13 games

2006
6 - Thorp - Bust
24 - Renouf - 68 games average player

2007
12 - Rioli
29 - Whitecross - Good ordinary player

2008
16 - Schoenmakers

2009


2010
19 - Smith

Conclusion
Silvagni's drafting is actually comparable to Hawthorn's who stuffed up a lot of early picks but also really nailed some as well. Hawthorn had a huge amount of picks in the 30s and that's how they built their foundation and Carlton are doing something similar although they have had less prime picks.

A quick fix was not an option, it could not have possibly lead anywhere good, Carlton required too many players to rebuild with mature players. It would lead to an overpaid mid table side unable to go further like we had with Ratten. A quick rebuild would have stuffed Carlton right up.

Again, Carlton side being bottom is not because it lacks quality, it's due to a lack of 22-30 year olds. That is due to Carlton's drafting history between 2006 and 2014 which I have posted and really doesn't take a genius to see how bad that is. Probably the worst 10 years of drafting by any club.

Carlton's list and contracts were an enormous problem when Silvagni arrived. They were a bottom side when he arrived. Club had to have a clean out. They were old and needed to rebuild their young foundation of which they had just Docherty and Cripps. It needed to be done so that they could build a team which could be capable of sustained and high success.

Most rebuilds take around 7 years in this age of football give or take. Buckley at Collingwood, Scott at Geelong, Hardwick at Richmond have all gone down this path. Rebuilds in this modern era of footy if done well don't mean bottoming out, they generally mean a slight drop perhaps with the odd bottom out or mediocre seasons from when you start. A lot of teams can do the 7 year rebuild and only drop a little from where they are, but Carlton were already bottom and a slight drop from bottom is bottom.

For Carlton, they had already bottomed out and a slight drop meant becoming very very bad. Carlton are in their 4th season of a 7 year rebuild. They have not had that jump up yet but they will.

Many teams in this age rebuild and have success by bringing in a lot of mature age players. Carlton have been unable to do that as they are starting down the bottom and need to build a base. Clubs who rebuild with mature age players already have a strong base of good players, many who they will carry through to the end of their rebuild, Carlton have not had that luxury.

Silvagni's ability to get Carlton extra high draft picks and use most of them well has been a credit and the rewards of that are yet to be really seen but they will be.

People who believe Silvagni has done a bad job and that Carlton should be winning games know very little about football, player development and Carlton's situation.

Carlton's list is only just now at the stage where they must start bringing in mature age talent.

Silvagni's recruiting is not perfect but have a look at Hawthorn's in their rebuild, it's lucky they had a mountain of early picks because they drafted some stars and built their foundations with top 30 picks but they burnt a lot of them as well. SOS has not burnt as many top 30 picks.

People expecting Carlton to be good now are asking Carlton to do the impossible. Bring in 25-30 players all young enough to make the journey and all developed enough (over 22), to be able to stand up to AFL football. That's what you're asking of Silvagni and it's impossible.

Carlton should pick up and be playing decent football in 2020. It's likely to be another development year but they will be alright. 2021 they will be better, potentially a lot better. 2022 Carlton will peak and be rather strong strong.

It's too early for the young players of which nearly all our recruits are to really impact games on a regular basis, let them get to a decent age and that will happen.

Carlton have structured their contracts and list so that when they are attractive enough to recruit prime age top talent they will be able to. This IMO is a big challenge and it's going to be the make or break moment. IMO Carltons foundations are laid, now the building that really brings things home takes place but it's going to be challenging.

Like it or not Carlton are still getting over their horror recruiting past and are taking the long road to do it. They want to build a really deep team that has time and will be around for a long while and will be able to go through rebuilds while remaining competitive. The only way to do that is go the long rebuild via young players and doing it that way means around 5 years of not really showing much improvement then a few of climbing the ladder.

Silvagni, if you're going to bag the guy out, perhaps first do a bit of a review and have a look at his work. He's brought a lot of young players in, most of whom are pretty good. There are some busts but that is footy, even the best sides have plenty of busts. It's totally unrealistic to expect a recruiter to hit all their marks and judging players before they have had a reasonable time to mature is completely ridiculous.

Carlton are on track and will come good but not now. Too early for what Carlton are doing and I'm glad they are doing it this way.

Geez, I had to stop reading halfway thru and go and make a sandwich.
In my view none of that’s really the point.
Everybody would’ve been across the strategy to go about the changes and the way you cut and recruited, the board the coach, recruiters, FD and everybody.
You guys cut really deep but you decided together, then you decided to get rid of the coach and I don’t think it’s because he’s not a good coach you wanted a little more time without the heat from the media for the team to develop and they need to because it’s only this year you’ve brought in a couple of established Bgraders.
Which is a consequence of the strategy to cut and recruit as you did.
It wouldn’t be SOS whose decided on his own he’s going to approach it like he has.

I’d be interested to know if SOS is an employee of Carlton like Bolton was.

 

[La Dispute]

Did you miss 2017 altogether? They've flown out the window

Prestia has done a stack more than McGovern who has kicked 15 goals all year. Prestia averages 25 touches this year.
Lynch has been disappointing but scored 26 goals this year

Sure call Richmond's midfield paper thin, but they've won 7 games this year...7...Carton have to go back to 2016 to win 7 games.

Prestia has shocking footskills, and him getting the ball so often actually gives the opposition more chances to capitalise on his errant disposals. He’s not worth 800k in the slightest.

Jack Darling has kicked the same number of goals as a second forward. Would you pay him 1 mil per year? Lynch is so soft and one dimensional, it’s amazing he’s managed to wrangle such a deal out of the Tigers.

 

[blitzer]

One thing I absolutely cannot fathom about Carlton's rebuild is how 4 years in so many of their fans maintain it just wasn't possible to get players in the right age bracket to help the group win games of footy. How can anyone believe that for so many years its been impossible to get a few mature aged players in? Look at Geelong bringing in some mature guys like Atkins and Miers for example. Cheap and have made a real difference to their forward pressure an area which Carlton are pretty horrendous at. There's countless examples of mature aged guys getting picked up every year, that's not even including other ways to acquire players including free agency/trading etc.

Believe it or not developing 18 year olds until they are 24 is not the only way to develop a successful list. This is 2019 not 2004 back in the era of priority picks before the first round.

 

[SickQwon]

One thing I absolutely cannot fathom about Carlton's rebuild is how 4 years in so many of their fans maintain it just wasn't possible to get players in the right age bracket to help the group win games of footy. How can anyone believe that for so many years its been impossible to get a few mature aged players in? Look at Geelong bringing in some mature guys like Atkins and Miers for example. Cheap and have made a real difference to their forward pressure an area which Carlton are pretty horrendous at. There's countless examples of mature aged guys getting picked up every year, that's not even including other ways to acquire players including free agency/trading etc.

Believe it or not developing 18 year olds until they are 24 is not the only way to develop a successful list. This is 2019 not 2004 back in the era of priority picks before the first round.

Luring mature recruits is not that easy when you're last on the ladder. Carlton had a crack at many mature recruits like Rockliff, Shiel, Smith & more (established guns) and were unsuccessful. However, Picking up Gibbons, Newman and McGovern has been beneficial.
Atkins and Miers are not core players, they can slot into an established system and play their role easily like Geelong. They wouldn't have the same impact at Carlton

Carlton's situation is different, the new core players were built through the draft. (Weitering, Walsh, Fisher, Curnow, Mckay ect.) These players are now on long term contracts with the club. Hence why SOS waited till year 4 to go hard at foot soldiers to fill that void in the age profile. No point blowing the salary on some VFL players if there's no core being developed. There's a risk, you just have to look at O'Shea who was a jet at VFL.

The refusal to get mature recruits was deliberate. You can debate that it was good decision or not but SOS is on record saying it would've kept Carlton mid-low table and wouldn't benefit in the long term.

Wait till this trade period/draft, rookie picks and mature recruits will be the focal point and it will all make sense.

 

[La Dispute]

Miers was drafted out of the TAC Cup, and Atkins is a low-ceiling depth player who will likely be replaced in the coming years. And in any case Gibbons has performed to a similar standard.

Neither of these players would have radically altered our fortunes, and it’s much easier to come in and play well in an established, topline team.

 

[RAPPA]

Four drafts to date:
2015 - am happy with all of his selections inside the first 25. JSOS cops a lot from non Carlton fans but insofar as this year is concerned, from a Carlton supporter’s perspective he has been solid and so at pick 53, I’m quite comfortable with his selection. SOS bombed on the rookie draft.
2016 - again, comfortable with the draft selections. The 3rd and 4th round selections are not best 22 regulars, but those players could go either way. Rookie selections (except for alex silvagni who, despite injury issues and a short tenure at the club, was fairly important to the backline) were another bomb.
2017!- Dow has limitations - his kicking is substandard but hopefully in time will improve as he matured. LOB is a work in progress. De Koning hasn’t had much exposure and has just returned from an injury. A projected Kreuzer replacement and am happy with his selection for now, though you can easily mount the argument that you shouldn’t blow a high (first/second round) pick on a ruckman. Garlett/Schumacher - at this stage, not sound selections though we’ll see what the new coach brings. Rookie and ore season selections were a bust.
2018 - Walsh happy. Stocker - has looked ok but he’ll always be (unfairly to him) judged against the first round pick swap. Certainly that pick swap at the time imo and even now was silly given the club finished 2-20 at season’s end and Adelaide had several injuries in 2018, but hopefully stocker turns out to be a decent player. The rest of the picks are in the TBD category, with one of the rookie selections (Bugg) turning out to be a bust.

In total, when it comes to the drafts, SOS is wretched with the rookie selections but am overall happy with the national draft picks. As for the trades, he has had a lot more misses than hits, irrespective of the cost to acquire them.