Opinion Stephen Silvagni

[bigm386]

I do desperately scratch my head re the McGovern trade. It definitely wasn't a need and he looks nowhere near fit. Almost seemed to be a case of look he wants to come to us!!!! We must have him.

On player development which some people have commented. I think their is some merit here regarding the system at AFL level. Two examples that come to mind are JSOS and Polson, both whipping boys. But I have seen them play very well at VFL as pure mids. When they get a chance at AFL level they never or rarely get a midfield rotation. Just seems odd to me.

Regarding SOS taking Dow in the 2017 draft. Honestly that top 10 was possibly the weakest in a very long time. Stephenson is probably the best of the top 10 right now and had health concerns. You could argue that we should have gone Ed Richards over LOB. LOB does look miles off but honestly the 2017 draft was very dissapointing so far.

 

[Blue1980]

Surely the head of recruiting is responsible for, I dunno, the personnel and analytics in the recruiting department?

And so the alternative is going ‘well, I liked that guy 3 years ago when he was in high school and I drafted him to my previous club, so why not?’

Even the trades we have made look dumb. Hawthorn gave up pick 44 for Jack Scrimshaw and got back pick 54 as well. We gave up pick 20 and 42 for Will Setterfield who was taken two picks earlier in the same draft and was coming off a knee reconstruction.

Can’t agree with your posts more.

Problem is the club internally have believed SOS is the messiah and have given him free reign to do whatever the hell he likes.

Seems we recruit off a very limited base of knowledge.

 

[Blue1980]

Sacking SOS basically says to our playing group "You are SOS's mistakes"

We have to stick with SOS. If we think that coaching is the problem then we need to let the new coach work with this group to know how SOS has really done.

Sack SOS and we need to rebuild/reshape the list.

I don’t think it gives that message at all.

Those who are mistakes are fairly well known at this stage, I don’t blame the picks we have had in the top 25 or so, even the best clubs have missed in top picks.

SOS’s issue is everything else, bad trades, bad experienced players and bad later picks and bad rookie drafting.

Also no coherent plan in developing a balanced list.

 

[Dominator_7]

SOS gave us the the talented young players. Not his job to coach and develop them.

 

[Gethelred]

Price paid for each? You can't hit the draft for too end quality and turnover the lower end all at once. We were coming from a long way back with the Rogers/Malthouse basket case.

... which is certainly what we've been saying for a while now, and it certainly has merit.

The question, though, becomes: should we have hit the draft at the top level so hard that what we paid for that list of players is all we had with which to pay? That we needed to make changes is obvious; what is not is whether, if we declined to trade Gibbs (O'Brien, McGovern) whether we traded Henderson (McKay or Curnow; the choice being to take either instead of both) whether we traded Tuohy (Marchbank/Pickett) and/or whether we could've picked up other players (Rory Sloane, Tom Lynch) when they've been out of contract or been willing to pay for them under FA.

 

[Mr_Plow]

How the * is Dow a potential bust? Awful take, absolutely awful.

19 year old just won 21 possessions in a deplorable team effort and never stopped trying. Blame the useless coaches who cannot iron out one of his few flaws. Phenomenal smooth mover with the football, very few in the league possess his athletic attributes.

Would make that pick again every day of the week.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

How the **** is Dow a potential bust? Awful take, absolutely awful.

19 year old just won 21 possessions in a deplorable team effort and never stopped trying. Blame the useless coaches who cannot iron out one of his few flaws. Phenomenal smooth mover with the football, very few in the league possess his athletic attributes.

Would make that pick again every day of the week.

Questionable whether we can judge any player at the moment, including Lang and Fas. If the players aren't playing for the coaches/ there's a player revolt going on then talent/skill level becomes pretty impossible to discern.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Questionable whether we can judge any player at the moment, including Lang and Fas. If the players aren't playing for the coaches/ there's a player revolt going on then talent/skill level becomes pretty impossible to discern.

Indeed.

Although I believe our current list is still bottom 4-6 in the league in terms of capacity to perform and win games (under any coach), with the talent we have on field, we really should have been vastly more competitive these last 2 weeks.

The list still projects to be really good with the right coaching.

 

[Gethelred]

How the **** is Dow a potential bust? Awful take, absolutely awful.

19 year old just won 21 possessions in a deplorable team effort and never stopped trying. Blame the useless coaches who cannot iron out one of his few flaws. Phenomenal smooth mover with the football, very few in the league possess his athletic attributes.

Would make that pick again every day of the week.

Has his limits. Has plenty of time to work on them.

People need to rewatch some footy, in particular his game against Sydney last year. First half, in the wet up there, he was the best afield; had 15-20 possessions, mostly contested, including a break from a stoppage into a long sprint for goal. He has shown plenty in a Carlton jumper.

It's not in his first round selections that SOS need be questioned. It's in what else he's done that needs to be reviewed.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Indeed.

Although I believe our current list is still bottom 4-6 in the league in terms of capacity to perform and win games (under any coach), with the talent we have on field, we really should have been vastly more competitive these last 2 weeks.

The list still projects to be really good with the right coaching.

Too many projects and not enough honest hard workers. Although we might discover more about our list with a new coaching staff. Might even see Garlett play a role that suits his skill set for example...

 

[Blue Heart]

Price paid for each? You can't hit the draft for too end quality and turnover the lower end all at once. We were coming from a long way back with the Rogers/Malthouse basket case.

You can add Wayne Hughes to Rogers as the 'true architects' of our dismal drafting and recruiting through the 2000's.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Jury is still out.

SOS had the philosophy at GWS to draft in the best top end talent available....granted he had the compromised drafts...but the theory was that the best will be in their starting line up, the remainder can be traded for high draft picks, and the wheels keeps turning. They still have that philosophy, and are currently sitting 2nd on the ladder with two 1st round picks. Frightening really....and if Bonar gets traded at the end of this year, may have another 1st round pick...

SOS brought that same approach when he arrived, but without the compromised drafts, so had to trade to bring in 'top end' talent...in other words, those players that he drafted at when he was at GWS that weren't getting regular games. Hence one of the reasons we have more first round draft picks on our list than any other club.

His job was done, the challenge then was to develop the potential of these players...which has been pretty much a dismal failure.

So is it SOS' fault to bring these players in who haven't come up to scratch, or the coaching staff for not being able to develop them?

One area that has been appalling though has been our lower end/rookie picks. Hopefully Agresta can straighten that out...

 

[Styxx]

There's legitimate criticism for some of SOS' choices, but that's micro-level stuff (to borrow from Gecko on the Carlton Show). The big picture strategy is fine. There's not going to be another strip and rebuild of the list anytime soon, even if Bolton loses his job. I daresay that if/when the head coach job becomes available, there will be coaches licking their lips at the prospect of working with this list.

No doubt there will be busts and continued turnover - that happens to premiership teams, let alone a rebuilding one. But I think the only decision that will keep SOS up at night will be the pick swap with the Crows, and even then, if you're backing your head coach, you can at least understand the decision-making process behind it.

Put another way, SOS has gone down a similar path to his build at GWS, and that is bearing fruit a number of years after that process began. AND they had the benefit of bringing across A-grade talent in their prime. Even still, nailing each draft and trade is impossible and their list needed continual improvement after the initial phase. With extra players on the list, too.

SOS has done a very good job overall. Let him keep doing that job and the team will get even better. He isn't perfect of course. But nothing suggests he's blown this out his backside.

GWS did have the advatage of multiple top 20 picks year after year either handed to them, or facilitated by trade when cap squeeze inevitably happened...and we gave them some of those top 20 picks and I don't think we really got much value back on those in the grand scheme of things.

 

[ray8182]

Thanks SOS!

Year 2: SPS and Fisher ok. All 4 rookies - delisted. All 4 late picks are outside our best 22. Brought in 2 veterans - both delisted. Paid a first round pick for Marchbank and Pickett - both injury prone and underwhelming. All up - 14 players recruited. 6 already delisted. Only 3 best 22 players from 14 selected. That’s appalling

Year 3: Dow - kicking so bad he is a potential bust. O’Brien - potential bust. Neither is best 22 on merit. Brought in 6 veterans. 2 are delisted, none of the other 4 are best 22 players. Brought in 2 late rookies. 1 already delisted, the other hasn’t played a senior game. De Koning - awful pick. Could have been available at 70. Taken ahead of midfielders we desperately needed like Worpel and Constable. Duplicates our best young players - at best he is trade bait. All up, 11 players recruited. The only player with any business being on the park right now is Dow in a development charity role

Year 4: Walsh - free hit at pick 1. Gifted priority access to state league players, didn’t use it. Gave up 3 assets for McPuddin - barely contributes and makes us too top heavy. Traded a future top 20 pick for Setterfield who is borderline best 22. Traded future pick 1 for Stocker who looks a solid back pocket prospect. Brought in 6 other mature players. Only 2 are best 22. 3 other late picks - none look remotely like contributing. 13 players added, 5 best 22.

The best that can be said is that our top 25 picks the last 3 years have been ok. Everything else is a complete shambles. It’s almost surprising when someone a mature age pickup actually does well at this point - and even then, Newman’s 10 Clanger effort today makes me wonder...

You’ve gone far too early with your assessments of a number of players. Yes there are concerns eg dows kicking, but there is a long way to go. Guys like O’Brien will take time.

We’ve got a number of young players going through up and downs and it is highlighted even more by the fact there aren’t many quality senior players around them.

Some of the player assessments you’ve made are far too premature and far too black and white. The players young ages and injury issues make it far more complicated.

You have to play the long game when drafting or recruiting young kids. Players don’t mature when you decide you want them too.


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[Bordertoon]

Imo, and presumably with significant input from key stakeholders at the club (including the head coach), SOS has overseen a list management strategy that has clearly involved a calculated risk of privileging an investment in youth with an eye to our medium and long term success, over an investment in mature bodies to maximise our chances of competitiveness in the short term. Although it was always going to be a delicate balance to strike, and it has left us more exposed than we would ideally be in the short term (especially when we lost Doc for the best part of two years, and we were unable to land Shiel), overall I still think that this is the right strategy when it comes to our ultimate goal of winning flags. Of course, along with SOS’s hits, there have been multiple misses, but tbh I think that this is par for the course with list development, even at clubs with better lists, more current appeal to players, and firmer foundations for player development than ours.

Imo, the issue was always going to be can our coaches ride out this challenging period, by developing and organising our young list sufficiently well to ensure competitiveness and, in the process, to attract new mature talent, while retaining and improving our existing young talent. Up until the North debacle, I actually think that Bolts, his assistants, and the players were broadly on course to achieve this, despite our solitary win. I say this because we were competitive in our first 6 games, as was reflected in our percentage, and without too much being different (but including the coaching, btw) we could quite easily have won 3 games (the Suns and the Hawks were obviously two that got away). Since then, however, and leaving the Pies game to one side, our season has obviously collapsed in a heap, but is that primarily due to our (largely unchanged) list and a few injuries, or rather to our coaches failing to get the best (or something even close to the best) out of our list? Personally, I think that the evidence points to the latter, as our game plan, structures, systems, and match day responsiveness seem to be poor and if anything getting worse, and the performances of many of our players are at best stagnant, and in many cases going backwards. What’s happening then, as far as I can tell at least, is that substandard coaching is currently making our list look worse than it is. In turn, this is jeopardising our rebuild moving forward, because no decent mature player in their right mind would want to come to the Carlton of the last month or so, and if things continue as they have been since the Hawks (when I believe our stocks were actually quite high), then surely it will only be a matter of time until some of our young talent starts to wonder what life would be like at another club.

In summary, our list is what it is, and to date imo SOS has done a solid enough job in putting it together - it’s not perfect, and is certainly vulnerable in terms of its age profile, but it’s not as bad as it’s recently been made to look, and it contains an abundance of young talent. Either way, our list can only be improved incrementally and gradually. What this means is that imo our focus during what I now consider to be a crisis period must be on ensuring that we are getting the absolute best out of our list, through high quality coaching and continual player development. Is that really what’s been on display in recent times? I don’t think so, and I believe that the time for us to change our coach (or coaches) is fast approaching, or perhaps is already upon us. As a club, imo we simply can’t continue to describe our performances as unacceptable (as Juddy has done more than once on FC this year), while in effect we accept those very performances by sticking to a plan that is clearly not working. Imo, there’s truth in the old adage that “if you’re in a hole, stop digging”.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

When you trade out about 6 best 22 players, have literally millions of available cap room and get given (most likely) picks ~1,1,1,3,5,19,19,19, 21,23 over 5 drafts getting good young talent in is a non negotiable. It’s the easy part.
I actually think over that period we have traded fairly well and recruited top end picks well.
We have been deplorable at being able to spot mature talent at other sides and Spending cap space.
My worry is we won’t always have multiple top end picks (hopefully) and we have done stuff all outside them to this point. We also won’t always be able to overpay salary for Setterfield’s, Marchbank, McGovern and Plowman types which have been the best pickups we’ve got. (Talent wise)

 

[Garters]

How the **** is Dow a potential bust? Awful take, absolutely awful.

19 year old just won 21 possessions in a deplorable team effort and never stopped trying. Blame the useless coaches who cannot iron out one of his few flaws. Phenomenal smooth mover with the football, very few in the league possess his athletic attributes.

Would make that pick again every day of the week.

Couldnt agree more. If half the list put their head over the ball like Dow we would be in a far better place than current. Second year kid thrown to the wolves. It's a coaching development issue... Again. As with lots of these kids.

 

[DamianBis]

The interesting part of the SOS rebuild is that we saw how it worked (and didn't work) with Melbourne. Yet we've followed them making the same mistakes. Cutting too deep and not having enough mature players to lead.

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[Blue and Blue]

What a waste of cyberspace this thread is

 

[RedFury]

People acting like Dow and SPS are busts is just hilarious. Even LOB people are just going way too soon.

 

[FRUMPY]

Drafting I have no issues with, the trading/free agents are up for debate. But when you club cant develop talent then how can you judge trading/drafts. Player come to us and regress and any deficiencies are not fixed but let to fester. Watch Walsh turn into an average player in 2 years time. He will be Carltonised.

Only exceptions thus far would be Cripps and McKay who have been developed well. This year we have seen Charlie and Fisher regress significantly, Dow's disposal get worse - not better, SPS still choosing when he wants to play, Silvagni and Cuningham do nice things but not nearly enough of it. None of them have improved to a point they make us a better team. SPS had one great game based on Cripps handballing to him at every contest.

Player Development is non-existent and has been for 20 years. We as a club don't know how to do it.

 

[Garters]

People acting like Dow and SPS are busts is just hilarious. Even LOB people are just going way too soon.

Was listening to Hodge being interviewed can't remember by who but it was about his role in Brisbane. He was laughing at this very thing saying he feels for kids coming into system these days. He said people quickly forget how it took him 4 years before he put together an OK season. Seeing it with Weiters. It takes time. (This being a seperate issue to the coaching issue, which I feel is not up to scratch also.)

 

[Dipper3_]

This is every single Carlton Trade/ Draft under SOS ( Not including Delisted Free Agents or Rookie Picks)

2015:

Trades:
Henderson FOR Geelongs 2016 First Rounder
Tom Bell and Pick 41 FOR Picks 21 and 60
Troy Menzel FOR Sam Kerridge and 28
Geelongs 2016 First Pick 28, Pick 77, Pick 95 FOR Jed lamb, Liam Sumner, Andrew Phillips, Plowman and Pick 8
Chris Yarran FOR pick 19
Pick 20 and 21 For Pick 11 and 2016 Third

Draft:
1- Weitering
10- Mckay
12 - Curnow
23- Cunningham
53 Silvagni

Overall - A+

2016:
Trades:
Zach Tuohy and 2012 second round FOR Smedts, pick 63 and 2017 Geelong First Rounder
Geelongs 2017 First, Pick 45, Pick 58 FOR MarchBank, Pickett and GWS 2017 Second Rounder
Pick 135 FOR Rhys Palmer
GWS 2017 Second Rounder FOR Pick 48, Pick 66, Pick 70

Draft:
6- Samo
27 - Fisher
47- Macreadie
59- Polson
61 - Williamson
65 - Kerr

Overall - B+

2017:
Trades:
Gibbs, Pick 77, 2018 Second Round and 2018 Third Round Pick FOR Pick 10, Pick 16, Pick 73 and Adelaide 2018 Second Round Pick
Pick 95 FOR Lobbe
Pick 16 and 40 FOR Pick 28, Pick 30, Doggies 2018 Second Round Pick
Pick 58 and 2018 4th Round Pick FOR Darcy Lang and Geelongs 2018 4th Round Pick

Draft:
3 - Dow
10 - O'Brien
30 - De Koning
70 - Schumacher
78- Garlett

Based on Trades Overall would be A (Gibbs Deal alone is unbelievable) , too early to decide on the draft IMO

2018:
Trades:
Fasolo Free Agent
Nathan Kruger FOR Pick 43
Pick 26, Pick 28 an 2019 Fifth Rounder FOR Mitch Mcgovern and Crows 2019 Third Round Pick
Pick 43 and 2019 Second Rounder FOR Will Setterfield and Pick 71
2019 Fourth Round Pick For Nic Newman
Carltons 2019 First for Pick 19 and Adelaides 2019 First Round Pick
Pick 64 For Pick 67 and Adelaides 2019 fifth Round Pick
Pick 67 For Pick 75 and Saint 2019 Fourth Round Pick

Draft:
1 - Walsh
19 - Stocker
66 - Finbar
70 - Silvagni

Overall Trade Period would be B- If Pick we end up giving away Pick 1 to Crows

PS. Sorry if there are any mistakes or ones i have missed out

 

[BluesRule]

SOS gave us the the talented young players. Not his job to coach and develop them.

Agree. At the time of selection you could see the logic in what SOS picked up.

eg. The GWS 4 were a cheap way to get some depth. Phillips can ruck and has a bit of mongrel, but has not improved that much. Is that bad selection or bad development? Plowman is getting games and worth pick #28 on his own, but somehow we got pick #8 back for Geelongs 2017 first rounder. Brilliant!

Pickett can play, just seems injured /unfit all the time. How is that SOS fault.

Marchbank seemed overwhelmed today, but is still likely to be a 200 gamer if our defence can improve (Jones, Doc, Simmo, Daisy, Williamson, etc. all missing), Well worth it.

Lang is getting the ball in his first AFL game back from injury. I think he should play out of defence ( set shot not good). Lang was a cheap pick up and still has potential to at least be handy depth as he improves on his first game back today.

McGov is an odd one and I admit i did not see the need to get him. He was expensive in trade cost and had shown glimpses but not sustained output. Hopefully SOS learns from this selection not to overpay for potential. But if you remember there was a lot of pressure to close this deal as we needed to sell memberships and show people Carlton could trade in players.

Setterfeld I like and I think he needs time to develop. Knee operations take time to recover from and get confidence back, so lets discuss this next year. Not SOS problem as I can understand the logic in getting a pick #5 midfielder who is young, tall and has significant potential.

Most pundits saw Dow as a top 5 pick. Not all top picks come on immediately. Dow is getting ball and (like Dangerfield) I hope his disposal improves as he gets experience. He is clearly trying hard and way too young to write off.

I could go on, but it is hard to blame SOS if this talent is not being developed and injuries to our (few) key players keep occurring (Doch, Williamson, Jones, Murphy, Kreuzer, etc.) which holds back development.

Players out like Gibbs (dropped), Tuohy (injured), Hendo (injured), Menzel (delisted), etc. show we would not have been better off without SOS.

 

[dogs105]

Sacking SOS basically says to our playing group "You are SOS's mistakes"

We have to stick with SOS. If we think that coaching is the problem then we need to let the new coach work with this group to know how SOS has really done.

Sack SOS and we need to rebuild/reshape the list.

What is the story with McGovern this year? I haven't seen any Carlton games (I've seen hardly any Adelaide ones) - but that bloke is super-talented. I'd have rated him our most wanted to keep forward last year.
Has he been injured, or underperformed, or blown up his diet??? Has he actually been bad, or just not up to expectations?

Cheers.