Toast Stephen Wells

[Lager]

Geez there's some irrational tripe being spewed in this thread. Yes for 2014 Dunstan was the better pick, undeniable. But how can anyone declare who will be the better player in 2,3,8 years at this stage? Impossible!
Wells made no mistake... and if anyone can credibly say that he did, then they must have a crystal ball.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

We had a bloke who played every game for us last year bar one for compassionate reasons who managed 15 or less 13 time despite being in a team that won 17 games being 26 years of age and having played 138 games.I didn't hear your voice being as critical of him at any stage as you are against this young bloke.

You mustn't have been paying attention then. I would have been critical of Varcoe and questioned his spot in the team on here dozens of times in the past two years. Go and have a look for yourself, if you wish.

FMD, talk about clutching at straws. I haven't been critical of Varcoe? Now I've heard it all...

What's your beef with him other than Wells didn't pick him.

Don't have one. My beef is with people thinking that because Darcy Lang couldn't regularly crack a 17-5 team, after starting the preseason with a broken leg, that's somehow proof that it was a mistake to select him over a guy that put up middle-of-the-road midfielder stats who managed to hold his spot in a team that was nothing short of an embarrassment for three quarters of the season. And also seem to think that it means that Dunstan would even have got a regular game in that same 17-5 team, let alone produced similar stats to what he was able to at St Kilda.

 

[MotleyLemon]

Was just having a look at Emma Quayle's phantom draft, who has us taking Durdin at 10, with Wright already off the board (who I'm not exactly sold on either, but has been linked with us a fair bit).

I said it over on the drafts/trading board and I'll say it again here, I'll be disappointed if we take Durdin over the likes of Laverde, Lever and even Duggan.

He's got bust written all over him. Classic Wells first pick, tall, skinnyish build, no real position...

Probably take up a spot on the list for 4-6 years and be delisted a la Brown/Hamling...

 

[David the Cat]

I have said a few times I would like Lever or Laverde…but if Wright is there I think he'll be taken.

Personally I prefer Ahern over Degoey, but its a line ball..not sold on Goddard or Durdin and I would bet we won't take Cockatoo..

So clearly, as everyone can see I don't have a clue whats going to happen.

But I do sound authoritatively ignorant !

 

[meto]

Geez there's some irrational tripe being spewed in this thread. Yes for 2014 Dunstan was the better pick, undeniable. But how can anyone declare who will be the better player in 2,3,8 years at this stage? Impossible!
Wells made no mistake... and if anyone can credibly say that he did, then they must have a crystal ball.

Just what I've been saying all along, no more and no less, Dunstan was undeniably the better pick going by their first year. Did Wells err in judgement with all his information tabled before him, definately on what has been seen so far.
I most certainly haven't pretended to know the years ahead, all we can go on is the facts we know year by year, it's the lesser player that'll need more time was always my belief.
I think Lang might get 6-8 games in 2015 but that's about it, big breakthrough games of 20+ possessions I doubt.
I hope he proves me wrong and does all the above and more, just don't think he can be considered another Wells master stroke at this point in time.

 

[meto]

Was just having a look at Emma Quayle's phantom draft, who has us taking Durdin at 10, with Wright already off the board (who I'm not exactly sold on either, but has been linked with us a fair bit).

I said it over on the drafts/trading board and I'll say it again here, I'll be disappointed if we take Durdin over the likes of Laverde, Lever and even Duggan.

He's got bust written all over him. Classic Wells first pick, tall, skinnyish build, no real position...

Probably take up a spot on the list for 4-6 years and be delisted a la Brown/Hamling...

If we take Durdin I think Scott must be looking for a stable of 200cm runners, he's very close to 90kg so I don't see him as another Brown or Hamling.
He's the same as many tall U18's that have pace, they're required all over the park, it's the lesser athletic type that are confined to the forward line because of their lack of endurance and agility.
I believe he'd quite possibly make a great CHB similar to a Jake Carlise.

 

[ButterMill]

I watched Langs draft year highlights, got very excited. Been doing that all week with lots of players from this year and Langs video stacked up to plenty I have had us taking at 10 this year.

He is like a free high pick for me as I missed his first year with us.

 

[rizzo]

Wells is a top notch recruiter, no doubt about that. It's obvious he has a strong lot of networks and obviously we have great success out of South Australia and Western Australia.
If there is going to be one weakness of Wells then it has to be his ability to draft key forwards. The only success has been Tom Hawkins and that was a gift.
There could be various reasons for that - the main one being we have never had a pick low enough to draft a "top notch" key forward. But still, he has failed more than he has succeeded with key forward picks.

 

[you pick one]

You mustn't have been paying attention then. I would have been critical of Varcoe and questioned his spot in the team on here dozens of times in the past two years. Go and have a look for yourself, if you wish.

FMD, talk about clutching at straws. I haven't been critical of Varcoe? Now I've heard it all...



Don't have one. My beef is with people thinking that because Darcy Lang couldn't regularly crack a 17-5 team, after starting the preseason with a broken leg, that's somehow proof that it was a mistake to select him over a guy that put up middle-of-the-road midfielder stats who managed to hold his spot in a team that was nothing short of an embarrassment for three quarters of the season. And also seem to think that it means that Dunstan would even have got a regular game in that same 17-5 team, let alone produced similar stats to what he was able to at St Kilda.

We will have to agree to disagee on Dunstans ability for now and wait and see what he produces over the next 2 or 3 years. Darcy Lang may in time be the better player who knows but right now he's trailing.I honestly missed you stuff on Varcoe so belatedly welcome to the Varcoe haters club.a bit of humor guys please don't hijack the thread on that.Any way back to where this all started lets hope Wells picks something with two legs at pick 10 with form I think he will this year or we wouldn't have done the picks 14 and 21 for pick 10.I flagged DeGoey at the start of the month in the who will we take with pick 10 thread and would still be happy with that result,I naturally like a few others but expect them to be gone earlier.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Just what I've been saying all along, no more and no less, Dunstan was undeniably the better pick going by their first year. Did Wells err in judgement with all his information tabled before him, and definately on what has been seen so far.
I most certainly haven't pretended to know the years ahead, all we can go on is the facts we know year by year, it's the lesser player that'll need more time was always my belief.

How much do you honestly think Luke Dunstan would have helped Geelong last year, had he been selected ahead of Darcy Lang?

 

[you pick one]

How much do you honestly think Luke Dunstan would have helped Geelong last year, had he been selected ahead of Darcy Lang?

With Motlop missing early games and Christensen missing half the year he would have been a good chance to have played early games at least,how he would fare in a reasonably good side your guess is as good as mine.Happy to leave him behind now though he's not one of ours and move on.

 

[meto]

How much do you honestly think Luke Dunstan would have helped Geelong last year, had he been selected ahead of Darcy Lang?

Personally I think he would have played if they were prepared to drop Varcoe on his lack of performance or Murdoch, Caddy was injured early on so that might have opened a spot.
I reckon up to 10 games and maybe more once he got his chance after ripping it up in the ressie's. I think getting a kick at Geelong would be easier than with the Saints actually.
When I saw Dunstan last year I instantly thought of Michael Voss.

All hypothetical of course, anyway Lang gets a chance to show us after a year of acclimatisation will be interesting to see him in the NAB.
I've got my fingers crossed for Lang too MED, just a fan of Lukey D's.

 

[OzeSparky]

Wells is a top notch recruiter, no doubt about that. It's obvious he has a strong lot of networks and obviously we have great success out of South Australia and Western Australia.
If there is going to be one weakness of Wells then it has to be his ability to draft key forwards. The only success has been Tom Hawkins and that was a gift.
There could be various reasons for that - the main one being we have never had a pick low enough to draft a "top notch" key forward. But still, he has failed more than he has succeeded with key forward picks.

Well lets hope he doesn't choose wight/durdin then

 

[Catatonic Shock]

Wells is a top notch recruiter, no doubt about that. It's obvious he has a strong lot of networks and obviously we have great success out of South Australia and Western Australia.
If there is going to be one weakness of Wells then it has to be his ability to draft key forwards. The only success has been Tom Hawkins and that was a gift.
There could be various reasons for that - the main one being we have never had a pick low enough to draft a "top notch" key forward. But still, he has failed more than he has succeeded with key forward picks.

In fairness it is extremely hard picking "quality" tall forwards with picks in the 30s and 40s. Quality talls stand out, they don't tend to fall that far.
More often than not our drafted talls have been either speculative or guys with deficiencies that other recruiters thought too big to overcome, that Wells took a punt on.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Personally I think he would have played if they were prepared to drop Varcoe on his lack of performance or Murdoch,

Varcoe: well they clearly weren't. He had two years' of sub-par performances and never even started as the sub.
Murdoch: pretty much a permanent forward, one of only five players that kicked 20+ goals for us (including two permanent midfielders: Duncan and Selwood) and you want to drop him for a guy that kicked nine goals last year?

Caddy was injured early on so that might have opened a spot.
I reckon up to 10 games and maybe more once he got his chance after ripping it up in the ressie's. I think getting a kick at Geelong would be easier than with the Saints actually.

Not when you're wearing the vest, it's not. You could ask GHS and Caddy about that. Geelong's starting subs in 2014 were:

Blicavs: 4 games
GHS: 3 games
Caddy: 4 games
Sheringham: 3 games
Hunt 1 game
Stringer: 1 game
Lang: 1 game
Hartman: 2 games
Thurlow: 3 games
Smedts: 1 game
McCarthy: 1 game

Seems as though Dunstan would have had a tough time even getting the 22nd spot in the side most weeks, let alone getting the 73% game time that he was accustomed to.

When I saw Dunstan last year I instantly thought of Michael Voss.

Based on what?

 

[MotleyLemon]

If we take Durdin I think Scott must be looking for a stable of 200cm runners, he's very close to 90kg so I don't see him as another Brown or Hamling.
He's the same as many tall U18's that have pace, they're required all over the park, it's the lesser athletic type that are confined to the forward line because of their lack of endurance and agility.
I believe he'd quite possibly make a great CHB similar to a Jake Carlise.

I'm still not convinced he has the frame to fill out like a Carlisle.

I can see Wright filling out, he is very square across the shoulders. A lot of comparisons to Justin Westhoff for Durdin, which would be great if he developed, but I think there are safer options at the top of the draft. Let's not forget we haven't had a major "hit" with our first pick since probably Menzel (Lang, Thurlow, Hamling, Smedts), and even then, injuries have ruined him to this point...

Thurlow, Hamling, Smedts, all "utility" type players too, not sure we should be gambling on another one of these with Durdin...

I have no dramas with taking a punt on them later in the draft, ie Westhoff was pick 70-something, but seems bizarre we continually choose these "utility" types early in the draft, especially when we are continually smashed around the contested footy...

(Yes I am aware I was advocating for Laverde before who is somewhat of a utility/tall mid, but he seems safer to me than Durdin)

 

[meto]

I'm still not convinced he has the frame to fill out like a Carlisle.

I can see Wright filling out, he is very square across the shoulders. A lot of comparisons to Justin Westhoff for Durdin, which would be great if he developed, but I think there are safer options at the top of the draft. Let's not forget we haven't had a major "hit" with our first pick since probably Menzel (Lang, Thurlow, Hamling, Smedts), and even then, injuries have ruined him to this point...

Thurlow, Hamling, Smedts, all "utility" type players too, not sure we should be gambling on another one of these with Durdin...

I have no dramas with taking a punt on them later in the draft, ie Westhoff was pick 70-something, but seems bizarre we continually choose these "utility" types early in the draft, especially when we are continually smashed around the contested footy...

(Yes I am aware I was advocating for Laverde before who is somewhat of a utility/tall mid, but he seems safer to me than Durdin)

Hey! that's him as a "16 year old for SA," Zac Bates behind him!.... Have a look at him now on the AFL draftee promo picture next to McCartin. He's a lot bigger now.

He's going 88+kgs at the moment maybe 90-91kg in the off season. If we get him he'll front 90+ kg solid by the start of next season, don't worry he'll be fine if we pick him he's a mobile tall CHB at 197-8cm.
Remember he's still only a kid....

 

[meto]

Varcoe: well they clearly weren't. He had two years' of sub-par performances and never even started as the sub.
Murdoch: pretty much a permanent forward, one of only five players that kicked 20+ goals for us (including two permanent midfielders: Duncan and Selwood) and you want to drop him for a guy that kicked nine goals last year?

Yeah that was a farce the Varcoe thing, he got in the way of a few others that aren't with us any longer, anyway good riddance. If they had a likely lad as a draftee they thought was AFL ready, they might have swung the axe! Can't believe no subs vest for him!

I like Murdoch, forgot he scored that many goals but also had form slumps which is what I had in mind. Proves he might be a weapon this coming year.
But all those midfield guys you named I'd be promoting Dunstan in front of apart from Caddy with GHS a toss up.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Bullshit. Again...he was eighth in average disposal at St Kilda. And he tallied 15 or less disposals in nearly a third of the games he played, which doesn't exactly seem like '...good numbers week in week out...' from where I sit. If he put up outstanding first year numbers like Toby Greene in 2012 or Jaeger O'Meara in 2013, or put up decent midfield numbers in a quality side, like Ollie Wines did in 2013, it might be a different story. His first year was closer to Jack Viney (including playing for awful teams) than the aforementioned players.

I agreed with you earlier on this page (by liking) about waiting 3-5 years to judge these players, Thurlow vs Grundy etc.

Now you're just arguing for the sake of it. Dunstan had quite a good first year at the saints.

In a rubbish side which had far less support for a first year player than a good side, like Geelong in '07, Dunstan averaged only 0.67 disposals less than Selwood did in his first year.

Now St.kilda this year ranked 17th for average disposals, so getting the ball was a major problem for the saints, and I daresay holding onto possession as well.

Contrast that with Selwood's first season where Geelong were 2nd in that same category, and only .3 off being the no.1 team. So had no problem getting him the ball.

So by my reckoning Dunstan had a solid first season of football.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I agreed with you earlier on this page (by liking) about waiting 3-5 years to judge these players, Thurlow vs Grundy etc.

Now you're just arguing for the sake of it. Dunstan had quite a good first year at the saints.

Where have I said he didn't? That's actually pretty much exactly what I have said. Which is that it was a good first season from Dunstan, but hardly an outstanding debut, on the level of players like Jaeger O'Meara and Toby Greene have produced in sub-par teams recently. It's more on par with the likes of Jack Viney, or Tom Liberatore.

In a rubbish side which had far less support for a first year player than a good side, like Geelong in '07, Dunstan averaged only 0.67 disposals less than Selwood did in his first year.

Now St.kilda this year ranked 17th for average disposals, so getting the ball was a major problem for the saints, and I daresay holding onto possession as well.

Simply getting in a good team (let alone a dominant one, like Geelong was in 2007) and holding your place is an excellent achievement. To do so and put up the stats that Selwood did is on a different planet to Dunstan putting up similar stats in nothing games for months on end.

I really don't think it matters how many disposals St Kilda got, compared to the rest of the league. If Dunstan had been as good as some on here seem to think, he would have been up there with Hayes, Montagna and Steven in disposals. Instead, he had less than Clinton Jones.

Contrast that with Selwood's first season where Geelong were 2nd in that same category, and only .3 off being the no.1 team. So had no problem getting him the ball.

So by my reckoning Dunstan had a solid first season of football.

We are in furious agreement. A solid first season. Hardly worth giving up on Darcy Lang a week after his 19th birthday over.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Where have I said he didn't? That's actually pretty much exactly what I have said. Which is that it was a good first season from Dunstan, but hardly an outstanding debut, on the level of players like Jaeger O'Meara and Toby Greene have produced in sub-par teams recently. It's more on par with the likes of Jack Viney, or Tom Liberatore.



Simply getting in a good team (let alone a dominant one, like Geelong was in 2007) and holding your place is an excellent achievement. To do so and put up the stats that Selwood did is on a different planet to Dunstan putting up similar stats in nothing games for months on end.

I really don't think it matters how many disposals St Kilda got, compared to the rest of the league. If Dunstan had been as good as some on here seem to think, he would have been up there with Hayes, Montagna and Steven in disposals. Instead, he had less than Clinton Jones.



We are in furious agreement. A solid first season. Hardly worth giving up on Darcy Lang a week after his 19th birthday over.

Ypo said he was putting up good numbers week in week out for which you replied with and took far too literally imo:

Bullshit. Again...he was eighth in average disposal at St Kilda. And he tallied 15 or less disposals in nearly a third of the games he played, which doesn't exactly seem like '...good numbers week in week out...' from where I sit.

8th in ave disposals is quite good for a first year player.

It does matter how many disposals St.K got, clearly they didn't get anywhere near the ball as pretty much every other team yet he still pulled Selwood numbers in his first year. Quite impressive.

It is harder to get into a better side and I haven't given up on Lang, as I've said myself ITT, wait a couple of years before starting to make that judgement.

Still doesn't devalue what was a very good performance this season.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Ypo said he was putting up good numbers week in week out for which you replied with and took far too literally imo:

Then you missed the point. Which was: that it's hard to argue that Dunstan was a one man band (as YPO was) in St Kilda's midfield when he could do no better than eighth in disposals per game at the club.

8th in ave disposals is quite good for a first year player.

It does matter how many disposals St.K got, clearly they didn't get anywhere near the ball as pretty much every other team yet he still pulled Selwood numbers in his first year. Quite impressive.

Feels like we're going round in circles here.

It is harder to get into a better side and I haven't given up on Lang, as I've said myself ITT, wait a couple of years before starting to make that judgement.

Still doesn't devalue what was a very good performance this season.

Depends on how people value it, I guess. Because it would seem like we have a fairly wide range of values on Dunstan's 2014 season in this thread.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Yeh MC I suddenly don't care anymore. The sad news on Hughes puts in perspective how trivial this is

 

[you pick one]

I have said a few times I would like Lever or Laverde…but if Wright is there I think he'll be taken.

Personally I prefer Ahern over Degoey, but its a line ball..not sold on Goddard or Durdin and I would bet we won't take Cockatoo..

So clearly, as everyone can see I don't have a clue whats going to happen.

But I do sound authoritatively ignorant !

Your in good company.

 

[Boxhead_31]

Just once I hope Stephen doesn't try to out smart every one in the room and just select the biggest need the team has in a young KPD and he doesn't take Cockatoo.
Mids can be picked up any year but getting a KPD in now to learn from Lonergan and Rivers whilst they are still around is a must