Stopping the Tigers 2020

beema limapep

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If you missed it i did offer my reasoning for Pickett and in case you don't know you're on Big Footy, i can say what i want within the rules.
The rules dont prevent someone coming across as over sensitive. Your choice. Some food for thought for you.
 

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Gethelred

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I think clearance statistics (as recorded in the AFL) is not a significant statistic at all.

Richmond were the worst clearance team in the competition - only winning the clearance count in 5 out of 25 games.
Geelong finished on top (level with Richmond) - won 11 clearance counts and lost 12. In their 3 finals, they won the clearances in both games they lost, and drew in the final they won.
Brisbane finished 2nd (equal with Geelong and Richmond) - and won 13 clearance counts out of 24. OK - pretty good, right? They won the clearances in their last 3 games (Rd 23 and finals) - and lost all 3 games.
Collingwood finished 4th, and won 9 out of 24 clearance counts.
The team that won the clearances in the highest % of their games was Port Adelaide. Adelaide was 2nd.

In 2018, Richmond were even more dominant through the season (up to the PF) and their clearance stats were even worse than 2019.

Clearances are a rather useless stat in assessing who is winning the game. There is basically no correlation.
Not quite. As it pertains to this argument, clearances in isolation mean almost nothing, but if a team scores heavily from clearances (which is something of a rarity these days) then the clearance numbers matter quite a bit, as does time in forward half (the more clearances that are within one's forward half, the more opportunities to turn them into a goal).
 
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Maylandsman

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Jack Riewoldt said he could win a Brownlow he rates him that highly.
Neil Balme said last year if he played six games he would win the Brownlow. Tongue in cheek of course but he is rated highly. A mate watched him a few moons ago and said he is something extraordinary and head and shoulders above the other WAFL talent. Left Kelly in the shade. We have a shiny new weapon ready to be unleashed and keep us on top of the heap.
 

YeOldTiger

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I think clearance statistics (as recorded in the AFL) is not a significant statistic at all.

Richmond were the worst clearance team in the competition - only winning the clearance count in 5 out of 25 games.
Geelong finished on top (level with Richmond) - won 11 clearance counts and lost 12. In their 3 finals, they won the clearances in both games they lost, and drew in the final they won.
Brisbane finished 2nd (equal with Geelong and Richmond) - and won 13 clearance counts out of 24. OK - pretty good, right? They won the clearances in their last 3 games (Rd 23 and finals) - and lost all 3 games.
Collingwood finished 4th, and won 9 out of 24 clearance counts.
The team that won the clearances in the highest % of their games was Port Adelaide. Adelaide was 2nd.

In 2018, Richmond were even more dominant through the season (up to the PF) and their clearance stats were even worse than 2019.

Clearances are a rather useless stat in assessing who is winning the game. There is basically no correlation.
Clearances are the rope-a-dope of the afl.
Clearly. Lol
 

YeOldTiger

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Neil Balme said last year if he played six games he would win the Brownlow. Tongue in cheek of course but he is rated highly. A mate watched him a few moons ago and said he is something extraordinary and head and shoulders above the other WAFL talent. Left Kelly in the shade. We have a shiny new weapon ready to be unleashed and keep us on top of the heap.
I've seen both of them play at wafl level and Kelly is a very good player who went to another level once he was placed in a fully professional environment. I hope rather than think that Pickett has as much upside. If he can average 20 clean touches each week, putting players into position with those slick hands he will be worth his weight in gold. I think Kelly is the man tho. He just looks like he will get better and better. My money is on him to win a Brownlow before Marlion ever does. Kelly is all power and grace, Pickett is silky class.

Love watching them both.
 

YeOldTiger

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.... I’ll respond to you with the same information I said to you last weekend.

In 2018 even when being ‘Flag’ Richmond had won 8 in a row going into the PF & only lost 2 games after the bye. The 2018 Richmond side showed that they were still able to win despite the challenges they faced late in the season, were able to ‘Fix’ those issues going into the 2019 season (A healthy Martin & Astbury, recruiting Lynch, etc). Richmond then faced new internal challenges through injury, position changes, etc. but we’re able to adjust on the go leading to their dominate run in the back end of 2019.

The West Coast Eagles lost 3 of their last 4 games in 2019! It’s not a ‘one-off’ bad performance, that’s multiple losses. As we’ve discussed previously; despite what others say I believe that both the WCE/Rich & WCE/Geel games at the ‘G showed that the Eagles are starting to be figured out.

But instead of whinging about #VICBIAS, ‘arrogant’ Richmond supporters & how bad we are— how about you provide some insight into why West Coast is an actual threat?

I ask— what has changed between 2019 & 2020 to fix the issues the Eagles defence had late in the year against key forwards???
Eagles have a cracking midfield and a very good fwd line but must be concerned about McGovern and Barass (both had Pre season surgery - McGovern not even running yet) as the key pillars in defence. I have two words for the Eagles. Lynch and Reiwoldt. Good luck.

That's not arrogance, just realism. Will be fascinating to see if the Eagles big defenders can stay on the park for 25 games. Schofield is serviceable and Shepherd (who I liken to Vlaustin) can play tall but that looks like their weakness to me.

Having said all that I still see the Eagles as the No1 challenger.

Collingwood (if Moore and DeGooey stay fit) can challenge and Brisbane (despite a much tougher draw) are the main dangers. Both have gameplans that can in theory trouble Richmond but geez our record against Brisbane is awesome. Home and away.

GWS are stacked with talent but a wise old man once said...a champion team will always beat a team of champions.

Geelong...well, Chris Scott.

So long, I'm back to my armchair and gin and tonic. If anyone needs me tomorrow I will be giving golf lessons to my baby grand daughter...born in a Premiership year. 😜
 

Forward Press

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Eagles have a cracking midfield and a very good fwd line but must be concerned about McGovern and Barass (both had Pre season surgery - McGovern not even running yet) as the key pillars in defence. I have two words for the Eagles. Lynch and Reiwoldt. Good luck.

That's not arrogance, just realism. Will be fascinating to see if the Eagles big defenders can stay on the park for 25 games. Schofield is serviceable and Shepherd (who I liken to Vlaustin) can play tall but that looks like their weakness to me.
McGovern will be fine, he played the GF after being hospitalised for broken ribs. He's not exactly the most athletic fellow. You are entirely correct however that key defence may be the biggest weakness. Barrass has had to endure injury and middling form since 2018, if he doesn't step back up we won't win the flag.
 

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Butler40

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McGovern will be fine, he played the GF after being hospitalised for broken ribs. He's not exactly the most athletic fellow. You are entirely correct however that key defence may be the biggest weakness. Barrass has had to endure injury and middling form since 2018, if he doesn't step back up we won't win the flag.
You do have Watson,Rotham&Cole who have all played Afl matches who could fill a void.
 

telsor

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Oh good, back to normal. I get the impression from that that best v best Richmond would've won coz they're just better. No ifs buts or maybes, am I right in that speculation?
I think you read too much into the order I put them.

Team A plays at 105%. Team B plays at 95%
Team A wins.


Why was A up and B down....there are many reasons for each. This is true for ~200 games every year.
 

telsor

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Seem like Tigers are willing and able to rationalise and find reasons to explain their downturn in form at the end of 2018. However, when it comes to the Eagles in 2019 they are all "blah blah blah, Eagles aren't a threat in 2020, see their last month in 2019 for proof, blah blah blah".
Read into it what you want.

Personally, I think Eagles are favorites this year, but believe what you will.
 

Forward Press

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You do have Watson,Rotham&Cole who have all played Afl matches who could fill a void.
Still very much young, inconsistent and a bit raw.

Cole actually got dropped last year, hopefully that was the kick up the butt that he (and a few others) needed post-2018 flag success.

The real wildcards imo are Venables and Cameron. If they step up a notch (or in Venables' case, step onto the field in the first place), there is real potential for a sustained challenge.

Anyway, I digress as thread is about Richmond but I am optimistic that WC can stop them.
 

Carringbush2010

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It isn’t too difficult to beat Richmond outside of the MCG, but they’re just way too good there. They play enough games to make it hard to stop them.

I think only Collingwood and possibly Bulldogs can stop them there.
Mmmmmnup, wc have shown that they can match them - only lost by a goal remember. Pies and Dogs agreed.
 

Carringbush2010

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I think you read too much into the order I put them.

Team A plays at 105%. Team B plays at 95%
Team A wins.


Why was A up and B down....there are many reasons for each. This is true for ~200 games every year.
Team A plays 100%, Team B plays 99%, team A wins. Your post I replied to implies that best v best tigs win, if that is you implication then that is speculation. Fair opinion but speculation none the less.
 

Carringbush2010

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This thread is full of Tiger posters telling people how to beat us. And we all say variants of the same thing. And we then say that we have been recruiting players to stop the way to stop us. And so we move from a really good detailed discussion of team structures, recruiting and development and strategies, to stupid slanging matches.

The ways we've been beaten in the past we work out how to deal with. Like all AFL teams.

The big thing that we can say over and over again (including many smart non-Richmond posters) is that we are built differently from the ground up. The closest is the retro-built Pies. Comparing us directly to teams that are built differently misses the fact that we have developed a sustainable advantage due to how the team is built - types of players recruited, training and game style. We have been tinkering with that style and still are to address the weaknesses. The basics of how to beat us to take our style away - stop the chaos and constant scrimmaging. We use our superior repeat sprints to create outnumbers and overlaps were no other team can go with us, and then boom, boom boom. And in reverse we use that repeat sprint ability along side a high quality and discipled group of intercept players to make it very hard to cleanly move the ball forward. It's such a simple formula, and saying things like 'win clearances' does not address our advantages at all. yes controlling the ball does - it's the key. But how? Answer that and we have a discussion.
Interesting take and agree with most of it. Apart from the 'retro' built Pies, not sure what that means. But if anything the Pies had a regeneration after the 2013 season. So in essence it's a ground up regen around a core couple players. Pendles and Sides mostly.

What brought us into challenge was a change of style around a core system - possession. You'd argue it's a pressure system (which it is at it's ideal) but it's quite simple really and very difficult to defeat. On face value it's a swarm and spread style - win possession at the coalface and transition to the already in advantage position on the spread. This is 2018 formula.

There are two flaws with this system:
  • The Pies pre empt winning the ball in the contest and structure up on that pre empt. IF they don't win that ball they're exposed on the team defence and allows the opp transition, uber bad against a wc or giants or even Geelong.
  • It requires two way running more than any other system
2019: It was evident that the Pies went down the path to controlling transition with disastrous results, the North game was evident of the flaws in the new style. The intent is evident. Theory:

  • The intent seems to be swarm and control transition on the ball win rather than structure on the presumption of the ball win
  • Requires less two way running.
I predict (going on late season and QF form) the Pies will return to a more pre emptive style, structure on the presumption of the ball win.

The difference between the two teams:
  • Richmond suffocate the opposition and force the contest forward and pressure the opp into submission, that's how they achieve seemingly fluent transition. As you mentioned superior running, it also ensures numbers in the contest in case they don't have possession.
  • Collingwood (2018) suffocate the opposition and win the ball to a pre empted structure to allow fluent transition. An uber high possession team that allows their swarm and more importantly spread game.
  • Collingwood (2019) suffocate the opposition, win the ball and 'massage' the transition. That's no good if you don't have the silky skill of wc or giants.
The teams are only similar in the amount of pressure applied, the methods after winning the ball are very different. The advantage they have over most of the comp is they are not personnel reliant. They're fundamental based systems.
 

THE_GUN

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Richmond this pre season has been focusing on running faster for longer according to a seasoned pre season training watcher who had commented to one of the staff members and was confirmed to him.

This could just go up another notch
 

Carringbush2010

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Eagles have a cracking midfield and a very good fwd line but must be concerned about McGovern and Barass (both had Pre season surgery - McGovern not even running yet) as the key pillars in defence. I have two words for the Eagles. Lynch and Reiwoldt. Good luck.

That's not arrogance, just realism. Will be fascinating to see if the Eagles big defenders can stay on the park for 25 games. Schofield is serviceable and Shepherd (who I liken to Vlaustin) can play tall but that looks like their weakness to me.

Having said all that I still see the Eagles as the No1 challenger.

Collingwood (if Moore and DeGooey stay fit) can challenge and Brisbane (despite a much tougher draw) are the main dangers. Both have gameplans that can in theory trouble Richmond but geez our record against Brisbane is awesome. Home and away.

GWS are stacked with talent but a wise old man once said...a champion team will always beat a team of champions.

Geelong...well, Chris Scott.

So long, I'm back to my armchair and gin and tonic. If anyone needs me tomorrow I will be giving golf lessons to my baby grand daughter...born in a Premiership year. 😜
Re wc and giants, I think they can beat anyone - they have such impressive transition games. They're exposed against pressure teams though, one flaw in their ball movement and they're exposed and is also hampered by teams like the tigs and pies because their transition is always pressured by them.

The only way the pies can beat richmond is by winning more possesion and being structured up to take advantage of the ball win swarm and spread. The 2018 model was this, the 2019 model didn't work not against an in form tigs system anyway.
 

Maylandsman

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I've seen both of them play at wafl level and Kelly is a very good player who went to another level once he was placed in a fully professional environment. I hope rather than think that Pickett has as much upside. If he can average 20 clean touches each week, putting players into position with those slick hands he will be worth his weight in gold. I think Kelly is the man tho. He just looks like he will get better and better. My money is on him to win a Brownlow before Marlion ever does. Kelly is all power and grace, Pickett is silky class.

Love watching them both.
Fair enough. Old mate is a bit wink wink, nod nod, in the know. Fair WAFL player in his day. Simply rated Pickett sublime compared to the rest. Time will tell. Hopefully pickett snags charlie this year. My 50 would appreciate that.
Put your house on Pickett having upside, no doubt about it.
 

Dr Tigris

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Interesting take and agree with most of it. Apart from the 'retro' built Pies, not sure what that means. But if anything the Pies had a regeneration after the 2013 season. So in essence it's a ground up regen around a core couple players. Pendles and Sides mostly.

What brought us into challenge was a change of style around a core system - possession. You'd argue it's a pressure system (which it is at it's ideal) but it's quite simple really and very difficult to defeat. On face value it's a swarm and spread style - win possession at the coalface and transition to the already in advantage position on the spread. This is 2018 formula.

There are two flaws with this system:
  • The Pies pre empt winning the ball in the contest and structure up on that pre empt. IF they don't win that ball they're exposed on the team defence and allows the opp transition, uber bad against a wc or giants or even Geelong.
  • It requires two way running more than any other system
2019: It was evident that the Pies went down the path to controlling transition with disastrous results, the North game was evident of the flaws in the new style. The intent is evident. Theory:

  • The intent seems to be swarm and control transition on the ball win rather than structure on the presumption of the ball win
  • Requires less two way running.
I predict (going on late season and QF form) the Pies will return to a more pre emptive style, structure on the presumption of the ball win.

The difference between the two teams:
  • Richmond suffocate the opposition and force the contest forward and pressure the opp into submission, that's how they achieve seemingly fluent transition. As you mentioned superior running, it also ensures numbers in the contest in case they don't have possession.
  • Collingwood (2018) suffocate the opposition and win the ball to a pre empted structure to allow fluent transition. An uber high possession team that allows their swarm and more importantly spread game.
  • Collingwood (2019) suffocate the opposition, win the ball and 'massage' the transition. That's no good if you don't have the silky skill of wc or giants.
The teams are only similar in the amount of pressure applied, the methods after winning the ball are very different. The advantage they have over most of the comp is they are not personnel reliant. They're fundamental based systems.
I guess I don't understand what you mean by 'swarm' and your understanding of how the teams win that possession that gets the ball free.

The Tigers have been explained multiple times in this thread by different posters.

The Pies play a more inside game with a less chaotic breakaway from contests.

That's my understanding of the differences.
 

YeOldTiger

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McGovern will be fine, he played the GF after being hospitalised for broken ribs. He's not exactly the most athletic fellow. You are entirely correct however that key defence may be the biggest weakness. Barrass has had to endure injury and middling form since 2018, if he doesn't step back up we won't win the flag.
You might be right about McGovern bot being the most athletic but geez he reads the play well and is so good overhead. Plus I was wrong, saw today that he is moving ok and should be right for R1 or at least early in the season. I think WC are the big danger this year.
 

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