Remove this Banner Ad

Opinion Straight Sets

  • Thread starter Thread starter Geoff
  • Start date Start date
  • Tagged users Tagged users None

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Log in to remove this Banner Ad

I've got this at about 60/40 or maybe even 55/45. I just think our best is better than their best.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Thanks for the link, Pokerspiv...it was an interesting read. Is the link between your username and a gambling-related topic purely incidental?

I think a more relevant theory to this situation is the 'hot hand phenomenon' (think basketball), in the sense that the result of an AFL semi final is not a truly random event but an event based on human performance. It is arguable that the result of one sporting match can change the behaviour of participants in a subsequent but independent sporting match, due to a change in psychological behaviour caused by the result of the first match.

A possible example is the semi finals of the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Germany defeated Brazil 7-1 in the first semi final. In my view, this may have significantly contributed to Argentina's below average performance (on recent form) in the other semi final against the Netherlands - you may recall that that match was an absolute stinker. Possibly Germany's rampant display against Brazil had a negative influence on the psychology of the Argentina players, in the sense that they may have thought: "even if we win the semi, we've got a mountain to climb to defeat Germany". As it turns out Argentina did end up winning the semi but only on penalties and the result could easily have gone the other way.

Tl;dr - Results dependent on human behaviour (such as a footy match) are not truly random, due to psychological factors amongst others. If a basketball player makes the first of two free throws, is he more likely or less likely to make the second?

Sorry for the long post. I find it an interesting topic!
 
It comes down to the pressure, just need to make sure their uncontested ball magnets don't have time and space. Richmond were extremely poor at that last week.
 
K Pop said:
Thanks for the link, Pokerspiv...it was an interesting read. Is the link between your username and a gambling-related topic purely incidental?!
Click to expand...

No, it isn't, I've been a professional gambler for the best part of 15 years. Most people on these boards don't believe that's possible though, so I don't bother talking about it much. (e.g. see this thread)

Back to the game, yeah sure there could be some psychological effect of the result affecting our game, but it's hard to see it being a big effect since the winner of tomorrow's game plays Hawthorn, and the winner of that game most likely plays Sydney. I was just dispelling the generalised gambler's fallacy that a lot of people subscribe to.

If you flip a coin and it comes up heads 20 times in a row, the chance of the next flip being heads is still 50/50. But tell the average punter at a casino that and they won't believe you.
 

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

That side of the draw apart from Sydney soft as butter. Average game if football last night by two average teams, Sydney will destroy birth next week.

Tonight's game completely different to lady nights game.

I still think whoever wins tonight could win it.
 
K Pop said:
Thanks for the link, Pokerspiv...it was an interesting read. Is the link between your username and a gambling-related topic purely incidental?

I think a more relevant theory to this situation is the 'hot hand phenomenon' (think basketball), in the sense that the result of an AFL semi final is not a truly random event but an event based on human performance. It is arguable that the result of one sporting match can change the behaviour of participants in a subsequent but independent sporting match, due to a change in psychological behaviour caused by the result of the first match.

A possible example is the semi finals of the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Germany defeated Brazil 7-1 in the first semi final. In my view, this may have significantly contributed to Argentina's below average performance (on recent form) in the other semi final against the Netherlands - you may recall that that match was an absolute stinker. Possibly Germany's rampant display against Brazil had a negative influence on the psychology of the Argentina players, in the sense that they may have thought: "even if we win the semi, we've got a mountain to climb to defeat Germany". As it turns out Argentina did end up winning the semi but only on penalties and the result could easily have gone the other way.

Tl;dr - Results dependent on human behaviour (such as a footy match) are not truly random, due to psychological factors amongst others. If a basketball player makes the first of two free throws, is he more likely or less likely to make the second?

Sorry for the long post. I find it an interesting topic!
Click to expand...

It's a lot to do with this;

When the moon is in the seventh house
And Jupiter aligns with Mars
Then peace will guide the planets
And love will steer the stars.
 
Fred Ziffel said:
It's a lot to do with this;

When the moon is in the seventh house
And Jupiter aligns with Mars
Then peace will guide the planets
And love will steer the stars.
Click to expand...

Yep, sorry. That post was a bit heavy on the theory! But as some say, 90% of the game is from the shoulders up.

pokerspiv - I agree that last night's result is unlikely to have much bearing on the psychological behaviour of players in today's game. I think the difference might be that we have had a pretty consistent form line over the past 5 weeks, whereas Port have been a bit more up and down (or untested) over the same period.

We definitely ended up on the tough side of the finals draw. If we do get past Port, I give us a decent shot to run the Hawks pretty darn close. The Round 3 result was a bit of an outlier when you consider the crappy week that we had prior (losing Fyfe in bullsh*t circumstances). I also think Ross has tinkered with the gameplan, largely to defeat Hawthorn's brand of footy, and he might also have one or two further adjustments up his sleeve.

Gotta get there first, however! The nerves will be shredded by this evening I think!
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Similar threads

Tonga Bob
    • Sad
    • Like
    • Love
Retiring Sonny Sets
2 3 4 5 6
Replies
136
Views
8K
Dale147
Dale147

Remove this Banner Ad

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Back
Top Bottom