Super Bowl Betting

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Thread starter #1
First off I just want to say my recent NFL picks have been so cold i suggest you get a flu shot before reading this thread.....but I've still had some success this season (just not lately!) & will provide my over-view & analysis & then others can make their own judgement call.

The team that has won the turn-over battle has won 39 of the last 43 SB's....wow!!!!

Before i read that stat i was basing a large part of my selection on the premise i think that TO's will play a major role in the outcome of this game, now i am happy with my original instinct.

New Orleans has forced 46 turn-overs this year (13 more than colts) & their Defense has scored TD's on many of these int returns. In a close battle I feel this is a key edge to the Saints, they have created these to's way too often for this to be a fluke or coincidence. If Indy abandons its run game to me its a matter of time before Manning adds to his 16 interceptions this year. The Saints D only conceeded 28 pts or more twice both on the road v Wash & v Mia & they won both games.

The Indy D seemed to play better in the 1st 8 games, the injury to Bob Sanders & Marlin Jackson still leaves their secondary inexperienced & they were torched by NE & Hou (2 teams with no where near as good an offense as the saints) but Manning bailed them out of those games they fell behind (Jax was another). Another big problem for Indy is their best pass rusher D.Freeney is highly unlikely to be able to be effective with a partial tear in his ankle ligament, even with giving him a shot he won't have the awareness of his foot or the explosiveness to gain an advantage against one of the best Offensive lines in the NFL that handled the excellent Min pass rush very well (Indy's O-line is excellent too).

Do i think Manning will put up big yardage numbers & put points up--yes. I can't see either Defense being able to shut the other Offense down, but in games like that i always like to have the team with the big play ability that can come from angles not expected, the Saints have that with their opportunistic Defense & they also have it in x-factor Reggie Bush on punt returns. The New Orleans Defense has been most vulnerable against teams that have run the ball well, but seeing as Indy is dead last in rushing offense this shouldn't be a major problem.

Don't underestimate the importance of the discrepancy between the 2 rushing attacks, NO has one of the best rushing (& passing attacks) & the Saints are far more balanced on offense than indy's pass-happy offense.
I don't think there's much difference between the quality of the 2 team's passing attacks, but i do feel Brees has a bit more help given the Saints rush attack.

I feel the lead-up form to this game is pointless to compare, NO played 2 divisional winners including Minnesota who i think are/were the best team in the league. The colts played 2 teams with very average passing attacks & who ran vanilla offenses & who really weren't considered anywhere near the top NFL teams this year.

Final: Saints 38 Colts 34

My picks:

New Orleans +5.5 (best bet)
New Orleans win $2.75
Over 56

MVP Betting

I'm not going to spend too long on this as its not a type of bet i take very seriously but a lot like to take some for interest so i'll provide my thoughts:

MVP Drew Brees $4.00 (saw $5 centrebet) Decent value, for the Saints to win you figure he's got to play well & is the key player.

MVP Reggie Bush $15 yep he's over-rated, but he'll get chances to make plays with punt returns, rushing, & catching passes--he's flashy & could score 2 TD's & make some big plays.

MVP Darren Sharper $41 not a bad long shot, this guy is as good as they come as far as taking interceptions back for TD's (ok maybe Ed Reed excluded) but he's done it 13 times in his long career & if he picks off 2 passes & returns one for a TD he's a rough chance.

Good luck all & enjoy the day.....
 

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Thread starter #3
Mate, since I've been going a bit rough i bought the updated version of this the other day so we're looking good with the Saints 38 Colts 34 final.

 
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Thread starter #5
Mate, since I've been going a bit rough i bought the updated version of this the other day so we're looking good with the Saints 38 Colts 34 final.

Cha-Ching!!!!! Thanks McFly.

Saints +5.5 WIN
Saints ML $2.80 WIN
Drew Brees MVP $4.00 WIN

ringadingding......
 
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Thread starter #9
You could have got Brees @ $4.50 on Betfair FYI.
I actually snapped up the $5 on centrebet whe it opened, but for the purpose of posting i kept it at $4 as i felt that was a more realistic price that people were going to get & also a price i still felt represented value.....

cheers for the thought though....
 
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#11
I actually snapped up the $5 on centrebet whe it opened, but for the purpose of posting i kept it at $4 as i felt that was a more realistic price that people were going to get & also a price i still felt represented value.....

cheers for the thought though....
Unreal price huh? Stupid even. But who cares about the bookies, we've got the $$ in our pockets now! I didn't even bother to check Centrebet (haven't used that account for some time TBH), but didn't even think anyone would have comparable odds to Betfair after seeing some of the others they had listed. I took Freeney @ $130 on BF, compared to him only being listed at $61 on Sportsbet, Sportingbet, TAB etc. Long story short, I put that one on in case of the "ESPN 60" kind of story happening - he did come down to 30's after that sack.

I didn't read your writeup here until after the game which is a shame as it was good stuff and fellow knowledgeable NFL fans in Aus are few and far between, hence why all my NFL discussions are done on US boards. Although I guess I've barely even been in this place recently due to over-posting by a couple of fleabags - they know who they are. It's because of guys like that posting about winning on $1.20 tennis games that the good stuff in here at decent odds often goes unnoticed.

I can only hope that some of the guys in here took my advice on Chris Johnson to win the rushing title @ $21 before the season like I did. Very profitable NFL year, would have been a KILLER year had the Saints not lost to the Cowgirls or the Eagles also beaten the Cowgirls in week 17.

BTW, all aboard the Niners for the NFC West next season.
 

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Thread starter #12
Unreal price huh? Stupid even. But who cares about the bookies, we've got the $$ in our pockets now! I didn't even bother to check Centrebet (haven't used that account for some time TBH), but didn't even think anyone would have comparable odds to Betfair after seeing some of the others they had listed. I took Freeney @ $130 on BF, compared to him only being listed at $61 on Sportsbet, Sportingbet, TAB etc. Long story short, I put that one on in case of the "ESPN 60" kind of story happening - he did come down to 30's after that sack.

I didn't read your writeup here until after the game which is a shame as it was good stuff and fellow knowledgeable NFL fans in Aus are few and far between, hence why all my NFL discussions are done on US boards. Although I guess I've barely even been in this place recently due to over-posting by a couple of fleabags - they know who they are. It's because of guys like that posting about winning on $1.20 tennis games that the good stuff in here at decent odds often goes unnoticed.

I can only hope that some of the guys in here took my advice on Chris Johnson to win the rushing title @ $21 before the season like I did. Very profitable NFL year, would have been a KILLER year had the Saints not lost to the Cowgirls or the Eagles also beaten the Cowgirls in week 17.

BTW, all aboard the Niners for the NFC West next season.
SOR, I am sorry to say i didn't read the tip re: Chris Johnson but i like him so much i wouldve take 20/1 if i saw it--great bet well done!

Aside from winning on the Saints & backing Brees my big win came from backing New Orleans @ 25/1 preseason, i didn't include this in the write up as i ws trying to remain objective about the game....but its made for a huge year for me in the NFL (even though i went cold for like 6 weeks leading up to the SB).

Next season we'll exchange notes on the value futures bets--I am very keen to see if Houston pick up a decent RB & if Green Bay can make a few additions i think both can make a rapid improvement. you can always PM me to exchange thoughts.

I don't read a lot of the threads in here (more of a time thing) so i miss most of what you're talking about re: $1.20 winners on tennis, if we can have a group of guys exchanging intelligent thoughts on value then i think it will be of use to us all.

I'm always looking for value, now we move on to a big AFL season & I may get back to the basketball punting as my record on that was hitting a nice strike rate before i just focused on the NFL.

cheers. & cha-ching!:D
 
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