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#1
First off I just want to say my recent NFL picks have been so cold i suggest you get a flu shot before reading this thread.....but I've still had some success this season (just not lately!) & will provide my over-view & analysis & then others can make their own judgement call.
The team that has won the turn-over battle has won 39 of the last 43 SB's....wow!!!!
Before i read that stat i was basing a large part of my selection on the premise i think that TO's will play a major role in the outcome of this game, now i am happy with my original instinct.
New Orleans has forced 46 turn-overs this year (13 more than colts) & their Defense has scored TD's on many of these int returns. In a close battle I feel this is a key edge to the Saints, they have created these to's way too often for this to be a fluke or coincidence. If Indy abandons its run game to me its a matter of time before Manning adds to his 16 interceptions this year. The Saints D only conceeded 28 pts or more twice both on the road v Wash & v Mia & they won both games.
The Indy D seemed to play better in the 1st 8 games, the injury to Bob Sanders & Marlin Jackson still leaves their secondary inexperienced & they were torched by NE & Hou (2 teams with no where near as good an offense as the saints) but Manning bailed them out of those games they fell behind (Jax was another). Another big problem for Indy is their best pass rusher D.Freeney is highly unlikely to be able to be effective with a partial tear in his ankle ligament, even with giving him a shot he won't have the awareness of his foot or the explosiveness to gain an advantage against one of the best Offensive lines in the NFL that handled the excellent Min pass rush very well (Indy's O-line is excellent too).
Do i think Manning will put up big yardage numbers & put points up--yes. I can't see either Defense being able to shut the other Offense down, but in games like that i always like to have the team with the big play ability that can come from angles not expected, the Saints have that with their opportunistic Defense & they also have it in x-factor Reggie Bush on punt returns. The New Orleans Defense has been most vulnerable against teams that have run the ball well, but seeing as Indy is dead last in rushing offense this shouldn't be a major problem.
Don't underestimate the importance of the discrepancy between the 2 rushing attacks, NO has one of the best rushing (& passing attacks) & the Saints are far more balanced on offense than indy's pass-happy offense.
I don't think there's much difference between the quality of the 2 team's passing attacks, but i do feel Brees has a bit more help given the Saints rush attack.
I feel the lead-up form to this game is pointless to compare, NO played 2 divisional winners including Minnesota who i think are/were the best team in the league. The colts played 2 teams with very average passing attacks & who ran vanilla offenses & who really weren't considered anywhere near the top NFL teams this year.
Final: Saints 38 Colts 34
My picks:
New Orleans +5.5 (best bet)
New Orleans win $2.75
Over 56
MVP Betting
I'm not going to spend too long on this as its not a type of bet i take very seriously but a lot like to take some for interest so i'll provide my thoughts:
MVP Drew Brees $4.00 (saw $5 centrebet) Decent value, for the Saints to win you figure he's got to play well & is the key player.
MVP Reggie Bush $15 yep he's over-rated, but he'll get chances to make plays with punt returns, rushing, & catching passes--he's flashy & could score 2 TD's & make some big plays.
MVP Darren Sharper $41 not a bad long shot, this guy is as good as they come as far as taking interceptions back for TD's (ok maybe Ed Reed excluded) but he's done it 13 times in his long career & if he picks off 2 passes & returns one for a TD he's a rough chance.
Good luck all & enjoy the day.....
The team that has won the turn-over battle has won 39 of the last 43 SB's....wow!!!!
Before i read that stat i was basing a large part of my selection on the premise i think that TO's will play a major role in the outcome of this game, now i am happy with my original instinct.
New Orleans has forced 46 turn-overs this year (13 more than colts) & their Defense has scored TD's on many of these int returns. In a close battle I feel this is a key edge to the Saints, they have created these to's way too often for this to be a fluke or coincidence. If Indy abandons its run game to me its a matter of time before Manning adds to his 16 interceptions this year. The Saints D only conceeded 28 pts or more twice both on the road v Wash & v Mia & they won both games.
The Indy D seemed to play better in the 1st 8 games, the injury to Bob Sanders & Marlin Jackson still leaves their secondary inexperienced & they were torched by NE & Hou (2 teams with no where near as good an offense as the saints) but Manning bailed them out of those games they fell behind (Jax was another). Another big problem for Indy is their best pass rusher D.Freeney is highly unlikely to be able to be effective with a partial tear in his ankle ligament, even with giving him a shot he won't have the awareness of his foot or the explosiveness to gain an advantage against one of the best Offensive lines in the NFL that handled the excellent Min pass rush very well (Indy's O-line is excellent too).
Do i think Manning will put up big yardage numbers & put points up--yes. I can't see either Defense being able to shut the other Offense down, but in games like that i always like to have the team with the big play ability that can come from angles not expected, the Saints have that with their opportunistic Defense & they also have it in x-factor Reggie Bush on punt returns. The New Orleans Defense has been most vulnerable against teams that have run the ball well, but seeing as Indy is dead last in rushing offense this shouldn't be a major problem.
Don't underestimate the importance of the discrepancy between the 2 rushing attacks, NO has one of the best rushing (& passing attacks) & the Saints are far more balanced on offense than indy's pass-happy offense.
I don't think there's much difference between the quality of the 2 team's passing attacks, but i do feel Brees has a bit more help given the Saints rush attack.
I feel the lead-up form to this game is pointless to compare, NO played 2 divisional winners including Minnesota who i think are/were the best team in the league. The colts played 2 teams with very average passing attacks & who ran vanilla offenses & who really weren't considered anywhere near the top NFL teams this year.
Final: Saints 38 Colts 34
My picks:
New Orleans +5.5 (best bet)
New Orleans win $2.75
Over 56
MVP Betting
I'm not going to spend too long on this as its not a type of bet i take very seriously but a lot like to take some for interest so i'll provide my thoughts:
MVP Drew Brees $4.00 (saw $5 centrebet) Decent value, for the Saints to win you figure he's got to play well & is the key player.
MVP Reggie Bush $15 yep he's over-rated, but he'll get chances to make plays with punt returns, rushing, & catching passes--he's flashy & could score 2 TD's & make some big plays.
MVP Darren Sharper $41 not a bad long shot, this guy is as good as they come as far as taking interceptions back for TD's (ok maybe Ed Reed excluded) but he's done it 13 times in his long career & if he picks off 2 passes & returns one for a TD he's a rough chance.
Good luck all & enjoy the day.....

