Opinion Swans in the Finals, lets get realistic

[mtooler]

Hey all,

We've achieved what no team has done before and won from 0-5 or worse to make finals. That should be celebrated.

I do think we need a bit of a reality check however, only two teams have won the grand final from 5th-8th, I think its cool to dream that we can make the grand final and even win it but the reality is it is unlikely. We shouldnt be premiership favourites now and if we crash out early in the finals what the lads have already achieved should not be undersold either which will probably happen.

If we can make a preliminary final ideally not against the Crows I think that would be a pretty remarkable effort from them and theyd be a lot to take away from this year for the kids and next year Id anticipate a real crack at the title.

I wouldnt be booking grand final accomodation at this stage though, booked it and flights at half time v the Cats last year.

 

[Theprofessional]

Nonsense imo- flag or another failed season.

Bye giving week off now almost completely nullifies top four advantage and we will see that again I hope- really great position.

Very rarely do we hit finals in this much form, with this little of injury concerns and with so many match ups that look like they suit us. If we don't win the flag it's another missed opportunity- not settling for a preliminary final loss when every team we come up against we're 50/50 chance at worst at beating.

 

[74561347]

if were being realistic...

we will win every game by 8 bazillion points, grand final day will be renamed sydney win the flag day featuring (insert losing team here), buddy will resign to 2035 for free cos he loves the joint and finish with 2500 goals, the scg will have to be expanded to 250,000 just to fit half our fans in and the entire NRL will fold because even their players would rather watch us.

realistically.

 

[CD__]

Realistically, at worst we will be a 50/50 chance in every game we play from here on in. It's been a great effort to make it this far but we are here now, we're fit and in form and anything less than a premiership would be disappointing.

 

[SwansProudly]

We have shown we can win anywhere and against any of the teams in the (likely) 8.
Edit. PA beat us in round 1, but PA are no threat.

 

[dopesayo]

Not going to lie, I'm extremely worried we'll finish 6th and vs 7th placed Essendon and get knocked out first round due to their speed.

 

[Tuco]

The only ground we haven't won away on was in WA. Not a factor in these finals.

And after our 0-6 start almost every away game was against a 'better' side according to ladder position.

We're in this.

 

[SilentHunter_]

Who knows at this point. Just enjoy it for what it is, I know I certainly am. Especially considering we shouldn't even be in this position after our 0-6 start. It is unprecedented and uncharted territory. Just go game by game.

 

[brad cooper]

Realistically scenario 1

If rich wins we will play essendon and should win, gives us the loser of gee and rich, we've beaten both these teams this year, get past this we're more than likely off to adelaide where we won last week.
On the other side of the draw id expect port to beat whoever finishes 8th, id expect the crows to take care of gws, who would then beat port and face either geel or rich in a prelim in melb.

Potential gf match up geel, rich or gws

Realistically scenario 2

Saints win. We play either wce or melb first week and should win. Play loser of adelaide and port, more than likely port, win this and we'd play a prelim in either geel or gws, before meeting the crows in a gf.

Scenario 1 suits me better as we'd avoid GWS until a gf, i would also rather avoid port adelaide away in the 2nd week.

We've beaten everyone in the 8 with the exception of Port, we're good enough to do it.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Agree with the silent one. I went to the Round 6 game and after the match left ashamed at the lack of intent and support for each other on the ground. We have had numerically worse defeats, but this was the nadir of this century. For the first time in ages I took immediate interest in the 2017 draft pool.

Now after Round 23 I look at our subsequent wins and ladder position and feel like a kid again getting my first bat or first footy. It is still pinch myself territory in a season I could never imagine, let alone forget.

One game at a time kiddos.

 

[Punts]

Imo it will be to much

 

[BloodySwan]

I don't see why we can't win. We've beaten every top 4 team at their home ground and are the in form team in the comp.

 

[Tuco]

We've limped into recent finals series. Looking strong each time, but very fragile. Then one hammy to a Reid, or a knock to the jaw to Joey, and things started to slide away.

This year, I'm really hoping we get a kick from the bye.

Looking at our injury list, it's a s small as I've ever seen it at this time of the year.

One thing we've had to do in the past is play players with a level of general soreness that put them 5% off their opponents. While teams like Geelong, North, Freo and Hawthorn rested their senior player late, we played full best 22's more often than not right to the end.

This year we gave time to JPK, Hanners, Papley, and Jack.

It could be a positive factor.

 

[RUNVS]

I am actually worried about playing Essendon the first game in the finals as we came within a whisker of losing to them a few months ago. The only consolation is that we actually had 31 scoring shots to 25, we were just really inaccurate, well Buddy was really inaccurate as he kicked 0.6 that day.

 

[Tuco]

I am actually worried about playing Essendon the first game in the finals as we came within a whisker of losing to them a few months ago. The only consolation is that we actually had 31 scoring shots to 25, we were just really inaccurate, well Buddy was really inaccurate as he kicked 0.6 that day.

Yes. They are one of those classic pacey teams, with a single ruck man, that keep running all day.

Their 7 goal unanswered run was almost the end of us.

While I agree goal inaccuracy was key, my issue was how their late run of goals were set up. They ran around us and through us. And it wasn't Bellchambers carrying the ball for them.

 

[RUNVS]

Yes. They are one of those classic pacey teams, with a single ruck man, that keep running all day.

Their 7 goal unanswered run was almost the end of us.

While I agree goal inaccuracy was key, my issue was how their late run of goals were set up. They ran around us and through us. And it wasn't Bellchambers carrying the ball for them.

Exactly. I would much rather play West Coast or Melbourne but it is looking quite likely we will end up with Essendon which is less than ideal for us.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Just need some luck to go our way? maybe this year? if Finals were next week we would be limping in again with Sinclair, Tippett, Hewett, Papley?, Hanners?? all under a cloud.

Its bloody uncanny how we seem to get injuries in the last few games heading towards the finals.

 

[mtooler]

Nonsense imo- flag or another failed season.

Bye giving week off now almost completely nullifies top four advantage and we will see that again I hope- really great position.

Very rarely do we hit finals in this much form, with this little of injury concerns and with so many match ups that look like they suit us. If we don't win the flag it's another missed opportunity- not settling for a preliminary final loss when every team we come up against we're 50/50 chance at worst at beating.

Winning on the road against finals opponents is tough to do once we need to do it 2 or 3 times.

 

[mtooler]

Realistically, at worst we will be a 50/50 chance in every game we play from here on in. It's been a great effort to make it this far but we are here now, we're fit and in form and anything less than a premiership would be disappointing.

50/50 becomes 25/75 in second coin flip accounted for.

 

[mtooler]

Not going to lie, I'm extremely worried we'll finish 6th and vs 7th placed Essendon and get knocked out first round due to their speed.

They are the team I really don't want to play.

 

[RUNVS]

I just did a quick ladder predictor and it is so much better for the Swans if St Kilda win today. If St Kilda win then

Elimination Final vs Melbourne
Semi Final vs Port Adelaide
Preliminary Final vs Geelong
Grand Final vs Adelaide

That is a dream run for us.

 

[mtooler]

I don't see why we can't win. We've beaten every top 4 team at their home ground and are the in form team in the comp.

We can win, I'm just mindful that our season won't be a failure if we don't make the GF.

 

[The Swans Blog]

2017 premiers.

 

[Tedeski]

I am actually worried about playing Essendon the first game in the finals as we came within a whisker of losing to them a few months ago. The only consolation is that we actually had 31 scoring shots to 25, we were just really inaccurate, well Buddy was really inaccurate as he kicked 0.6 that day.

They didn't have Hooker either.

 

[RUNVS]

They didn't have Hooker either.

We were missing McVeigh which is a pretty big out for us.