Autopsy Swans lose to Saints, Round 9 2020

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Kennedy Parker

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Jul 9, 2015
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Cue the “one goal doesn’t make a career” snarks.
Meh, wouldn't get too caught up in the whole Reid Wars here.
People are too deeply invested in the argument and mostly talk past each other at this point.

Think we can all agree it was an awesome goal in a great win though. :)
 

Kummerspeck

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Everyone frames their arguement to suit them, you just have yourself by saying he is not a key forward but a utility, you just agree with the people who speak positively about him
He plays forward mostly, usually high, with stints in the backline, pinch-hitting in the ruck and playing as a link on the wing. I think that counts as a utility.

So Reid is not our key forward? then at this stage of his career that is not good enough,and if he is the key forwardI expect him to perform and take on that role, I.e take that kick for goal at the cruicial stage, which he can actually kick, not pass to dawson
Why is it not good enough? Though Reid's career he's had Hall, Tippett, and Franklin as KPFs. In the section he was the key forward target, 2011-2012 he was tracking about what you'd expect for a middle of the road KPF.

You are clearly a smart footballer watcher, what should the expectation from him be? should i expect him to take more marks than Papley per game? should his stats be above Roughead? do I have to observe everyone elses performance and presume Reid affects that?
Which Roughead? Jarryeayd? Probably not, given Roughead's standing in the game. I'd say something like Lynden Dunn, a working-class Howe, or if you want to talk about retired players, Leigh Brown. All players who bounced around key posts through their career. They're (ignore Howe, he's clearly quite good) not super-stars, but they're not sh*t or liabilities to their teams.

I can't be bothered trawling through years, but there was a write up on here a few years ago at how much better the Swans were at gaining or retaining possession when the ball went to a contest with Reid, and it wasn't insignificant.

For what its worth I think he is a super talented player, I would accept my criticism is too often for some, thats a fair arguement, but I think he is held by some to a significantly lower standard, than other players at the same club and league wide.
I think your issue is that you're setting standards for him as a top-end KPF, when he's a middle of the road player who's been used all over the field.

I tell you what I expect, him to out perform Papley in marks per game over their careers, him to kick more goals, stop dropping marks and to out perform say Roughead 2019 statistically. I also expect him to average the most goals per game at the club
Which Roughead? He did better than both in 2019 if you compare them.
 

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Superstar swan

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It’s beyond who we recruit. Your not going to get every selection right and when ur at the bottom it’s hard to attract talent.

L. Taylor is borderline fat atm and gray isn’t much better. Whether they are recruits or not , they presented themselves this year in poor condition. Embarrassingly the club has decided to gift them games when their form and clearly attitude away from the club does not warrant it. I understand we are a very young team and we are going get some floggings but allowing gray and Taylor to play is setting the wrong example for the young kids and sending the wrong message about what is required to be an AFL player.

It’s good we can get as many games into these kids as possible but if they don’t learn that being an AFL player is a 24/7 job and what they do to prepare themselves off the field, they won’t be top flight players no matter how many games they play
 

robbieando

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The scary thing is we are going to be having this some argument in 7 years time. Tom McCartin hasn't even matched Sam Reid for output stats wise when you compare them vs the same age, vs this year or vs their overall career and yet isn't being held to the same standard in regards to being a liability, a waste of a list spot or should be delisted.

The fact he hasn't outperformed Sam Reid and Sam is suppose to be such a dud is not a great sign of future performance.

But alas the same high standards that were set for Sam will be set for Tom soon enough and he'll be dragged for not living up to these high standards and we'll be repeating this debate all over again as if its some sort of shock.
 

Superstar swan

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Sam burst onto the scene and hasn’t really become the player we expected. I’m more comfortable when he’s playing because he makes us a better team by being a strong option up forward and helps straighten us up.

Structurally he is important but individually hen doesn’t influence results as much as we’d hope
 

caesar88

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The scary thing is we are going to be having this some argument in 7 years time. Tom McCartin hasn't even matched Sam Reid for output stats wise when you compare them vs the same age, vs this year or vs their overall career and yet isn't being held to the same standard in regards to being a liability, a waste of a list spot or should be delisted.

The fact he hasn't outperformed Sam Reid and Sam is suppose to be such a dud is not a great sign of future performance.

But alas the same high standards that were set for Sam will be set for Tom soon enough and he'll be dragged for not living up to these high standards and we'll be repeating this debate all over again as if its some sort of shock.
What are these "high standards" you speak of? You mean drafting a key forward in the hopes they will be able to contribute, at best 60+ goals a season, at worst, 40+ a season? And then being disappointed if they don't?

That is not a high standard. That is just standard. No one drafts a key forward with the ambitions of them being just an OK player.
 

Kummerspeck

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We should be allowed to expect to be at Westhoffs level, just providing a consistent and confident performance.
Their stats aren't markedly different, I don't think the people who aren't huge on Reid would be happy if he was at Westhoff's level.
That is not a high standard. That is just standard. No one drafts a key forward with the ambitions of them being just an OK player.
Reid is an okay player, that's all he will be. Reid is described in much worse terms than that, and inaccurately.
 

Skeparovic

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None that I think will be elite. Just how I see it. I have heard others say it's a very good draft but I can't agree. Granted there's been no footy played which means no chances for any to emerge from nowhere as potential elite candidates, but that's even more reason to not be too hypnotised by this year's draft given the added risk associated with each prospect.
Did anyone think Nat Fyfe would be elite?
 

Rhino5

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Hilarious the amount of digital ink being spilled over Sam Reid this week. I'm sure he'd be flattered. Our list/youth is also apparently terrible again, just a week after the future was rosy! Things change quickly I guess....

I actually enjoyed this game to watch. the Saints play an attractive brand of footy and we are doing our best these days to do the same, which I give Horse credit for. We just don't have......um.....the horses to do it successfully.

Interested in the thoughts on Bell. The stats say he had a good game, and by all accounts on here he worked hard etc, but I barely noticed him for the second game in a row. Maybe it's a TV thing and he looks more involved at the ground? He looks like a low ceiling depth player to me. Again, no issue with persisting for a few weeks to see if there's really anything there (this season should be strictly about that now), but I just don't see it. At this point, I'd be wanting to get a look at Wicks or Foot instead. A couple of other random thoughts:

I like Hayward in defence - it's a kind of a shame in a way because he has such great goal sense and could be a weapon up forward but maybe defence is his best spot. Or he could become the dreaded Sam Reid 'utility' player!

Don't know what has happened to Dawson. He's definitely not getting enough of it this season - whether that's due to his role, loss of confidence or whatever, it's disappointing. We need to get him going somehow.

Aliir is just maddening. All the physical talent the world, pulls it all together about once a month, the other weeks you're left wondering if he has any idea about how to play footy. I don't know what to do with him honestly. I found it slightly amusing that at one point Gerard Healy said something about liking Aliir in the ruck and that might be his best position.....directly followed by him getting laughably dominated in about 3 straight rucks contests where he either jumped at the wrong time and/or didn't get near the ball. Mybe 3rd defender is still his best position, but if that's the case we'll need Gould and Maibaum to become what we hope they will.

Not sure about all the Lewis Taylor criticism. Maybe he's out of shape, I can't really comment on that (don't remember what he looked like at the Lions), but I thought he's been pretty good the past two games. Certainly brings more to the table than Gray at the moment.

I know losing isn't fun, and especially so when you've had the success we've had as a club over the past 20 years, but

Elijah Taylor has it. It's very early in his development but the challenge for us is to not let him become a 5 possession, pop up for a couple of goals every other game, guy like Gary Rohan. He's never going to be a huge ball winner you wouldn't think but he needs to stay involved in games.

Sinclair is cooked. Absolutely cooked.

Blakey just isn't good. I know he's a second year forward and is down on confidence, but you'd expect to still see glimpses of the (allegedly) high end talent that everyone hyped him over. Yes, he's got plenty of time and this season is likely a write off for him, but man.....it's embarrassing what he's doing week after week. Yes, he needs to be dropped in the short-term and we can put it down to youth, but I still think it's concerning. There are plenty of highly touted youngsters (many less than Blakey) who step right in and look like they belong at AFL level. Blakey is so far off the pace it isn't funny. If we don't see some improvement next season, he's on track to be a certifiable bust.
 

Punts

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Be a shame if Blakey was a bust

hopefully not the case , talent there in glimpses

shows nothing that he is capable of senior level atm and it’s embarrassing I bet
 
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Olian

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Hilarious the amount of digital ink being spilled over Sam Reid this week. I'm sure he'd be flattered. Our list/youth is also apparently terrible again, just a week after the future was rosy! Things change quickly I guess....

I actually enjoyed this game to watch. the Saints play an attractive brand of footy and we are doing our best these days to do the same, which I give Horse credit for. We just don't have......um.....the horses to do it successfully.

Interested in the thoughts on Bell. The stats say he had a good game, and by all accounts on here he worked hard etc, but I barely noticed him for the second game in a row. Maybe it's a TV thing and he looks more involved at the ground? He looks like a low ceiling depth player to me. Again, no issue with persisting for a few weeks to see if there's really anything there (this season should be strictly about that now), but I just don't see it. At this point, I'd be wanting to get a look at Wicks or Foot instead. A couple of other random thoughts:

I like Hayward in defence - it's a kind of a shame in a way because he has such great goal sense and could be a weapon up forward but maybe defence is his best spot. Or he could become the dreaded Sam Reid 'utility' player!

Don't know what has happened to Dawson. He's definitely not getting enough of it this season - whether that's due to his role, loss of confidence or whatever, it's disappointing. We need to get him going somehow.

Aliir is just maddening. All the physical talent the world, pulls it all together about once a month, the other weeks you're left wondering if he has any idea about how to play footy. I don't know what to do with him honestly. I found it slightly amusing that at one point Gerard Healy said something about liking Aliir in the ruck and that might be his best position.....directly followed by him getting laughably dominated in about 3 straight rucks contests where he either jumped at the wrong time and/or didn't get near the ball. Mybe 3rd defender is still his best position, but if that's the case we'll need Gould and Maibaum to become what we hope they will.

Not sure about all the Lewis Taylor criticism. Maybe he's out of shape, I can't really comment on that (don't remember what he looked like at the Lions), but I thought he's been pretty good the past two games. Certainly brings more to the table than Gray at the moment.

I know losing isn't fun, and especially so when you've had the success we've had as a club over the past 20 years, but

Elijah Taylor has it. It's very early in his development but the challenge for us is to not let him become a 5 possession, pop up for a couple of goals every other game, guy like Gary Rohan. He's never going to be a huge ball winner you wouldn't think but he needs to stay involved in games.

Sinclair is cooked. Absolutely cooked.

Blakey just isn't good. I know he's a second year forward and is down on confidence, but you'd expect to still see glimpses of the (allegedly) high end talent that everyone hyped him over. Yes, he's got plenty of time and this season is likely a write off for him, but man.....it's embarrassing what he's doing week after week. Yes, he needs to be dropped in the short-term and we can put it down to youth, but I still think it's concerning. There are plenty of highly touted youngsters (many less than Blakey) who step right in and look like they belong at AFL level. Blakey is so far off the pace it isn't funny. If we don't see some improvement next season, he's on track to be a certifiable bust.
So you comment how fickle the board is after a loss with our list/youth then turn around a note that Blakey looks a bust. Looks like you blend into the thread perfectly.
 

Rhino5

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So you comment how fickle the board is after a loss with our list/youth then turn around a note that Blakey looks a bust. Looks like you blend into the thread perfectly.
I've never been as high as everyone else on Blakey and (even though I don't post often) have regularly expressed lukewarm thoughts about him. I hope he turns out to be great and proves me to be the impatient idiot that I probably am, but he's a great example of supporters assuming a young player will be a 'gun' just because we were told for months/years that he was going to be. And we end up making a lot of excuses for those players.

Ultimately, it's week 10 in a lost season and my thoughts about Blakey don't matter. We don't know whether or not he will be a good player for the club. But I definitely don't assume that he will be. We all want to assume our young players have these high A-grade ceilings because we are starved for high end talent, but the reality is often those super talented players show it really early. Guys like Florent, even Rowbottom - they are good players, with room for growth, but it's hard (at least for me) to imagine their ceiling being AA or Brownlow contenders year after year. That's what an elite player (especially a midfielder) is to me. Unfortunately, I think Heeney right now is the only player we have with that kind of upside and perhaps Papley.
 

Olian

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I've never been as high as everyone else on Blakey and (even though I don't post often) have regularly expressed lukewarm thoughts about him. I hope he turns out to be great and proves me to be the impatient idiot that I probably am, but he's a great example of supporters assuming a young player will be a 'gun' just because we were told for months/years that he was going to be. And we end up making a lot of excuses for those players.

Ultimately, it's week 10 in a lost season and my thoughts about Blakey don't matter. We don't know whether or not he will be a good player for the club. But I definitely don't assume that he will be. We all want to assume our young players have these high A-grade ceilings because we are starved for high end talent, but the reality is often those super talented players show it really early. Guys like Florent, even Rowbottom - they are good players, with room for growth, but it's hard (at least for me) to imagine their ceiling being AA or Brownlow contenders year after year. That's what an elite player (especially a midfielder) is to me. Unfortunately, I think Heeney right now is the only player we have with that kind of upside and perhaps Papley.
Fair enough all phantom drafts had him as a top 10 pick. Who would you have taken?
 

Rhino5

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Fair enough all phantom drafts had him as a top 10 pick. Who would you have taken?
I'm not a draft scout or expert so I don't know. We were always going to take him so it's sort of irrelevant.

Just saying that around the time that draft was happening, he was being touted as the second coming. Now, that doesn't generally happen unless you have high end talent, but I just expected to see more evidence of why he was rated so high. There's still time - I'm not writing him off - I just think where he's at right now is a bit concerning.
 

TheMase

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I am not too worried about Blakey. Clearly lacking some confidence right now. 2nd year blues.

He did kick 19.14 in 21 games in his first season, not many can do that. He is struggling to impact games right now and I definitely think he could do with a week off at this point.

Still very confident he will come good and be a very good player for us.
 

Olian

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I am not too worried about Blakey. Clearly lacking some confidence right now. 2nd year blues.

He did kick 19.14 in 21 games in his first season, not many can do that. He is struggling to impact games right now and I definitely think he could do with a week off at this point.

Still very confident he will come good and be a very good player for us.
Hypothetically if we didn’t match Blakey at 10. Then Caldwell was picked after at 11 or the more comparable Butters at 12 by Port.

if you compare Blakey and Butters career to date Blakey is still
the more effective forward with hitting the scoreboard. Blakey had the stronger first year in a weaker team. However second year Butters has been the better of the two. Port are on top of the ladder and Sydney at the bottom which would impact this somewhat.

He’s tracking well in comparison to his year group. Although not having a great second year.
 

Prez

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Wow what interesting reading on here, kept me entertained over the weekend. On the game we tried to continue the attacking take on the corridor brand of footy which is good to watch . We turned it over a number of times which was costly, failed to capitalize on a dominant 3rd qtr, then had a shocking 10 minutes in the last where we could not get our hands on it and paid the penalty. We must keep up this brand as it suits our group, like when it klicked the week before and we won.

As for mid fielders hack kicking it forward from the centre they are under extreme pressure and if you see where they are aiming it is to the most dangerous spot at the top of the goal square where the talls can mark or bring it to ground for the smalls to clean up.

As for reading the opposition ruckman, they do try that but if they are to aggressive at this the opposition will walk even easier out of the middle. If you watch Parker he crashes in to create a contest and give the other mids a chance to even the contest.
I have also noted the starting positions of the mids and they are rotating throughout the game giving differnent player the opportunity to be defensive or attacking.

The development of Rowbottom and Florent in there has been good this year and they will only get better with a stronger ruck combination going forward.
As for Reid he straightens the team up and does the 1% needed in a contest even if he is not hitting the scoreborad.

Finally there are no players at this level that are duds. They commit 100% at all times, some play a role that the side needs, some have bad game, some have 2nd year blues others become great players we are lucky we have a good group of young player that in time will be the nucleous of a great team.
 

LukeParkerno1

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I am not too worried about Blakey. Clearly lacking some confidence right now. 2nd year blues.

He did kick 19.14 in 21 games in his first season, not many can do that. He is struggling to impact games right now and I definitely think he could do with a week off at this point.

Still very confident he will come good and be a very good player for us.
Him more than anyone has missed Franklin not being there if nothing else to mentor him.

Still think we will look back at this season and see it for the season Blakely needed to have. He's hardly the only one having second year syndrome.
 

caesar88

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Their stats aren't markedly different, I don't think the people who aren't huge on Reid would be happy if he was at Westhoff's level.

Reid is an okay player, that's all he will be. Reid is described in much worse terms than that, and inaccurately.
Perhaps.

Or...

Some just don't rate him at all? And guess what, that is fine. If everyone saw the world the same then we'd be overpopulated and cease to exist from a lack of wars throughout history.
 

caesar88

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Rowbottom under-rated around here IMO. This 'good developing mid' is tracking on par, in some cases better than, some of the best midfielders of the last decade were at the same stage of their career.
 

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