Autopsy Swans vs. Eagles - Rd 12, 2019

The King!

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The TEAM would have had more goals both on the weekend and in many other games this year if Papley didn't continue to burn his team mates by going for goals he doesn't even have the capacity to score while there are spare players open in a better position. Ronke suffers from the same selfishness. It wouldn't have been tolerated from Mitch Morton so why do they cop it now?

Papley leads the club in goal assists I believe
 

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The King!

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So here’s an interesting bit of trivia. Even with the Swans coming 4th last our game v West Coast scored 252k viewers on Fox.

Highest viewership of the weekend for Fox.

it helped it was the only game of the day in a bye round

but we do well on tv, popular club, get luck getting tv money without sydney
 

DST

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The TEAM would have had more goals both on the weekend and in many other games this year if Papley didn't continue to burn his team mates by going for goals he doesn't even have the capacity to score while there are spare players open in a better position. Ronke suffers from the same selfishness. It wouldn't have been tolerated from Mitch Morton so why do they cop it now?
That is exactly what is expected of them playing as a low touch, goal kicking small forward. That and ground ball pressure.
 

elastic

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Some of our forward rate poorly for goal assists. OK, that's not a big thing but it is a good indicator overall of a successful forward line. It shows how the goals are being shared around. Tom Hawkins leads the comp in goal assists and Geelong lead the teams followed by GWS. Interestingly Blues and Suns have the fewest goal assists. I read that the secret to Geelong's effective forward line is sharing the ball between them, which they did that back in their glory days of 07,09,11.

Paps' average is 0.75/game, as is Bud's. Blakey averages 0.55
Reid averages just 0.25/game, as does Hayward. McCartin averages a miserly 0.10 per game.
Buddy had 2 against West Coast. Papley also. He has a total of 9 but we've lost 7 games where he had none.

By contrast 7 of Geelong's forwards and midfield/forwards have more goal assists than any Swan.

All of our forwards could share more.
Something which probably affects that stat is how few goals we've kicked this year and our low number of inside 50's. We've been quite efficient going forward but probably a lot fewer possessions inside 50 than a team like Geelong.
 

caesar88

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Spewing I can’t get a replay of this anywhere, most fun I’ve had watching a Swans game since 2016 IMO. Just the backs-against-the-wall victory, combined with the attacking footy, combined with all of my favourites killing it, combined with the culmination of a half-season’s worth of questions about the team’s direction being answered. Just the kind of good vibes needed to get us all through the bye!
 

SwansProudly

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Spewing I can’t get a replay of this anywhere, most fun I’ve had watching a Swans game since 2016 IMO. Just the backs-against-the-wall victory, combined with the attacking footy, combined with all of my favourites killing it, combined with the culmination of a half-season’s worth of questions about the team’s direction being answered. Just the kind of good vibes needed to get us all through the bye!
Do you have AFL Livepass
https://www.afl.com.au/livepass/match-replays/
 

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The King!

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Spewing I can’t get a replay of this anywhere, most fun I’ve had watching a Swans game since 2016 IMO. Just the backs-against-the-wall victory, combined with the attacking footy, combined with all of my favourites killing it, combined with the culmination of a half-season’s worth of questions about the team’s direction being answered. Just the kind of good vibes needed to get us all through the bye!

Get a free Kayo trial
 

bungee

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Something which probably affects that stat is how few goals we've kicked this year and our low number of inside 50's. We've been quite efficient going forward but probably a lot fewer possessions inside 50 than a team like Geelong.
You're mixing cause and effect. More goals come from sharing, not vice versa.
 

6yearsold

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Papley leads the club in goal assists I believe
That doesn't address the numerous ones he has burnt. If you read my post it clearly said in capital letters 'MORE' goals. But congratulations on your statistic.
 
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6yearsold

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That is exactly what is expected of them playing as a low touch, goal kicking small forward. That and ground ball pressure.
Burning your teammates who are closer to goal on a better angle to have a shot from 55 metres is expected of small forwards? I think that is a bit far fetched. Even those in good form and winning accolades can improve there game. Would you not have wanted one or two more goals instead of behinds or kicks that didn't make the distance because of poor decision making/selfishness?

He has taken the pseudo tough guy rubbish out of his game that cost us plenty of times early on in his career. Why not improve even further by knowing your limitations?
 

bungee

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Burning your teammates who are closer to goal on a better angle to have a shot from 55 metres is expected of small forwards? I think that is a bit far fetched. Even those in good form and winning accolades can improve there game. Would you not have wanted one or two more goals instead of behinds or kicks that didn't make the distance because of poor decision making/selfishness?

He has taken the pseudo tough guy rubbish out of his game that cost us plenty of times early on in his career. Why not improve even further by knowing your limitations?
I've said before that our forwards could share more but Papley's not the biggest offender. Besides, when he's in the zone he can do some amazing things. He's a pretty exciting player. He can come across a bit cocky but he knows when he's on, just like Buddy does. Great to watch.
 

6yearsold

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I've said before that our forwards could share more but Papley's not the biggest offender. Besides, when he's in the zone he can do some amazing things. He's a pretty exciting player. He can come across a bit cocky but he knows when he's on, just like Buddy does. Great to watch.
I agree to a certain extent. He has had a good few weeks. I don't agree that he knows when he is on. When he was running through the midfield he would do great to get the ball and burst from a stoppage but he would constantly butcher the ball by trying kicks he was not capable of pulling off. needs to go to the Allir and Lloyd school of learning your limitations.

I do think Papley and Ronke are the worst offenders. Papley seems to love sharing it with Buddy but no-one else. He can't be having shots from outside 50 on the run and under pressure when players are open closer to goal.

He will be a better player and we will be a better team. He gets more assists, we get more goals. It's pretty simple.
 

BloodySwan

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If a player believes they can kick it they should go for it. We lose more goals when we give out hospital passes in our F50
 

The King!

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That doesn't address the numerous ones he has burnt. If you read my post it clearly said in capital letters 'MORE' goals. But congratulations on your statistic.

He does sometimes but I like a cocky small forward who takes the shot more often than not

He and buddy should have a ping if in range imo
 

6yearsold

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He does sometimes but I like a cocky small forward who takes the shot more often than not

He and buddy should have a ping if in range imo
"in range" for buddy is anywhere from 60m. papley is a different scenario entirely.
 

BarneyBent

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You're mixing cause and effect. More goals come from sharing, not vice versa.
You have to take into account inside 50s though.

I lieu of having “disposals inside 50” and other more nuanced stats at hand, I did some quick analysis. I took each of our forwards’ score involvements, subtracted goals and behinds (because we’re looking at sharing, not scoring), and divided by total disposals (because the score involvement stat includes any involvement in a play which results in a goal, therefore players with more disposals will naturally have inflated score involvements).

I then took this number (which is essentially score assists per disposal, i.e “sharing factor”), and divided by the team’s average inside 50s per game divided by disposals per game (as an approximation of team inside 50 disposals per game, in other words a measure of how much opportunity a player HAS to get and share the ball).

The final number is very abstracted from anything real as it’s ratios of ratios, but bigger is better. Long story short, this rough analysis suggests Papley is decent in this regard with a “score” of 1.75, behind Sam Reid (2.13) and Nick Blakey (2.0) and Tom McCartin (1.95). Our worst is Jordan Dawson (1.1) but it’s a bit unfair as he’s spent lots of time in Defence and the analysis assumes most possessions are inside 50. Worst of the unambiguous forwards is Will Hayward at 1.28. Lance Franklin scored 1.73, and Heeney scored 1.65.

I also ran the same analysis on some Geelong forwards. Hawkins was their best with 2.27, followed by Rohan with 2.12. Ablett scored 1.8, Miers scored 1.69, and Ratugolea scored 1.53.

Keep in mind this analysis is biased against players who run through the midfield more, compared to players who play exclusively inside 50 with low possession counts, which helps Hawkins and Rohan’s scores.

But all in all it seems we’re comparable to Geelong, with Papley middle of the pack. Blakey and Reid are standouts for us, Hawkins and Rohan for Geelong.

I’d love to get my hands on some better stats and do the analysis properly (at least using disposals inside 50 for both players and teams instead of approximations based on team I50 and disposal counts), but I think it’s fair to say we’re not doing too bad inside 50, Papley is fine, but Hayward needs to lift his game.
 

The King!

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"in range" for buddy is anywhere from 60m. papley is a different scenario entirely.

True

Different ranges but still I’ll live with Papley misses

I agree it’s frustrating sometimes but more annoying when they won’t have a shot and turn it over

He seems to hit more than he misses ?
 

6yearsold

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True

Different ranges but still I’ll live with Papley misses

I agree it’s frustrating sometimes but more annoying when they won’t have a shot and turn it over

He seems to hit more than he misses ?
But can't he improve his decision making? Surely it is a win-win situation if he does. But after a win on the swans board you're not allowed to discuss that. All that will stand is back slapping. We're 4-8 FFS and no hope of making the finals. It's BS that we have started the season like this again. Apparently, whether we are rebuilding or not is dependant upon whether we lose or win that weekend and who to.
 

The King!

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But can't he improve his decision making? Surely it is a win-win situation if he does. But after a win on the swans board you're not allowed to discuss that. All that will stand is back slapping. We're 4-8 FFS and no hope of making the finals. It's BS that we have started the season like this again. Apparently, whether we are rebuilding or not is dependant upon whether we lose or win that weekend and who to.

He could improve it for sure i personally just wear it

I agree 4-8 is lousy but also get wanting to enjoy our best win of the year

No problem from me with looking at the negative it doesn’t mean anything bad, nice for a robust chat, some just think everything is great though, each to their own support how you want I say
 

S120

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Crazy thing is after our start to the year, we could quite realistically be 8-9 or 9-8 in 6 weeks time. Our next 5 games are:

Hawthorn @ SCG
Gold Coast @ SCG
Essendon @ MCG
Carlton @ SCG
Freo @ Optus

After our last three weeks, we've got much more manageable games ahead of us. It'd take a supreme optimist to say we'll win all 5 - we've been playing well but we're not world-beaters - but we could quite conceivably be close to a .500 record with a month to go before finals. And we're getting good senior players back over the next couple of weeks.
 
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