Analysis T8 vs T8 - after Round 23

[IdiotBox]

By my reckoning two thirds of our remaining games are against B10 sides.

Spot on Dewnior! 15 rounds to go - 5 against current T8 (2 x $yd$, 2 x Nth, 1 x WCE in Perth), 10 against current B10.

I better hope the T8 doesn't fluctuate wildly from week to week otherwise I may have created a rod for my own back.

 

[IdiotBox]

Well, looky here... afl.com.au playing catchup! Wah, wah, wah, wa.....

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-05-10/draw-holds-no-favours-for-struggling-magpies

 

[Blaze Storm]

Well, looky here... afl.com.au playing catchup! Wah, wah, wah, wa.....

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-05-10/draw-holds-no-favours-for-struggling-magpies

Yet Geelong ahead of the curve on both! I wonder how they managed to get such a soft draw??

Plus I love how their supporters bleat about how they beat us. Sure, your players only had an extra 6 weeks break over our guys... and we never play well at the start of the year... and we've lost a disproportionate number of Easter Monday games... And we were missing possibly our most important player... and you'd just gone and sold the farm for a couple of players while we went to the draft... but yeah. Definitely stamps your credentials.

 

[IdiotBox]

I've updated it to show remaining games for each of the T8.

 

[ACTion Hawks]

So on current form we should end up on 18Ws for the year (as we should win 3 of the five remaining against the T8 and all 10 against the B10. Sounds like a plan to me!

 

[Blaze Storm]

So on current form we should end up on 18Ws for the year (as we should win 3 of the five remaining against the T8 and all 10 against the B10. Sounds like a plan to me!

"should"

 

[IdiotBox]

After Round 8. Cats firming as the real deal. $yd$ record second (and 'worst') T8 loss to a B10 team. How sad.

 

[robiecampbellbrown]

Hi Main Man - one of the tweaks I intend adding in the next iteration is how many games each team has remaining against T8 teams.
I tend to agree with your assessment of the $yd$. It's easy to look like a team of millionaires when you're pumping lower level teams and those performances artificially boost the confidence of all the young players. They've also had a relatively charmed run on the injury front too. They are just one bad Buddy injury or MRP judgment away from being ordinary. Have heard commentators lauding the newly minted champions in Laidler and Rampe FFS!
Conversely, even if Freo are actually sh!t this year, it can't help team morale if you are being hammered by the best clubs week-in and week-out on top of losing your Brownlow medallist.


Edit: Hawks have 5 remaining games against the current T8. 2 x Nth, 2 x $yd$, 1 x WCE (in Perth)

Nth have 9, Cats/$yd$ 7, Dogs / GWS / WCE / Crows 6

They are a team of millionaires

 

[OzJohnnie]

Why do you use blue to highlight the numbers? No mathematician uses blue.

And the font. What is that? Times New Can'tReadIt?

Ps: Great analysis.

 

[IdiotBox]

Why do you use blue to highlight the numbers? No mathematician uses blue.

And the font. What is that? Times New Can'tReadIt?

Ps: Great analysis.

LOL. Idiot.

 

[OzJohnnie]

The MasseyRatings.com (used to set the BCS ranking in NCAA DI football but Ken Massey applies to hundreds of sports world-wide, including Aussie Rules) draws similar conclusions via different methodology.

Norf has the greatest disparity from 17th softest schedule to date and hardest to finish.

He rates the Hawks with the second hardest schedule to date and the third hardest to finish. The poor Crows are in the with hardest so far and the second hardest to finish. They'll be lucky tonnage the 8 with the meat grinder they must navigate.

The Kitties are rated mid-pack in both, their schedule not proving quite as soft as it first looked.

(Also, that last post was sarcasm. I just wanted in on the pedantic fun.)

 

[IdiotBox]

(Also, that last post was sarcasm. I just wanted in on the pedantic fun.)

yep - i am well aware of that! cheers.

 

[Dewnior]

After Round 8. Cats firming as the real deal. $yd$ record second (and 'worst') T8 loss to a B10 team. How sad.

View attachment 247429

If the ladder stays the same, we have a decided advantage over the other top 8 teams.

Can't believe handbaggers get * twice

 

[Blaze Storm]

After Round 8. Cats firming as the real deal. $yd$ record second (and 'worst') T8 loss to a B10 team. How sad.

View attachment 247429

So WCE has no wins against top 8 sides, Crows & Dogs 1/3. All other teams have at least 50% winning advantage against other top 8 teams.

Hawks and Crows have both played 5 top-8 teams and 3 bottom-10 teams, and both play top 8 teams only 5 more times for the season, compared to 9 bottom-10 teams.

Comparatively, North have played just 2 top-8 teams and 6 bottom-10 teams, and they play another 9 top-8 teams and 5 bottom-10 teams in the run home.

It is definitely a little skewed at the moment. I'm hoping North perform like we expect them to and come crashing back down by finals time.

 

[IdiotBox]

Clearly, I have too much time on my hands... some further tinkering. now shows the order of the remaining games of the T8.
It's using a count-down with 14 being this weekend's games all the way down to 1 for the last H&A game.

 

[Davo23]

Yes, it's obvious: Richmond to make a late run for 8th place.

And, it's happening!

 

[grumbleguts]

Good work.

However the way I read it I go down the left column, pick a team. Then scroll right to find how they went against a T8 opponent and find the result is reversed.
I'm no maths/statistic guy but I thought you always go down a column to find a reference point then work along that row to cross reference the 2 data inputs....

This is correct. In dominance matrix theory, the rows are the performance. However it is easy enough to switch it in your head and read downwards.

 

[IdiotBox]

Sorry, this is a dominatrix free zone.

 

[Cynic]

Games that matter this year:

Games versus Geelong, North, GWS & Sydney

Games away versus Adelaide & West Coast

At this point I think we've won zero big games this year and lost three.

 

[Hawkk]

Our away game is against Port not Adelaide

For better or worse West Coast, the Dogs and Adelaide were important games

 

[Cynic]

Our away game is against Port not Adelaide

For better or worse West Coast, the Dogs and Adelaide were important games

Important for top 4, not for seeing where we're at in terms of premiership contention.

 

[IdiotBox]

 

[Hawkk]

Surprisingly we are well placed in comparison to the Eagles, Cats and Dogs

 

[Blaze Storm]

Losses against teams below them on the ladder:

North: 1/10
Sydney: 2/9
Geelong: 3/10
GWS: 2/8
WCE: 1/8
Dogs: 1/8
Hawks: 0/5
Crows: 0/4

Wins against teams above them on the ladder:
North: N/A
Sydney: 1/1
Cats: N/A
GWS: 1/2
WCE: 0/2
Dogs: 0/2
Hawks: 2/5
Crows: 2/4

Granted that the higher teams have more teams below them and less above them, but I think this serves to say a little bit about the effect of the fixture on the ladder positions to date. In an ideal world, everyone should beat the teams below them and lose to the teams above them. The teams most bucking this trend are Sydney (who look like they're in a reasonable position for their wins/losses), Hawks & Crows.

Dogs, GWS and WCE have a couple of losses against teams below them and haven't won any (or one of 2) against teams above them, suggesting that they are likely to be genuine 3-7 ranked teams.

Due to their awkward position on the top of the ladder, it's still too early to call on the Roos.

I suspect, if anything, these stats so far suggest that Sydney is going to be top 4, Hawks and crows are a decent chance to move up, and the cats and GWS are the more likely to drop out of top 4 by years' end. The fact that North have 8 games against top-8 teams to go suggests we likely won't know where they sit until round 15+

 

[Thaihawk]

I'm no maths/statistics guy either - hence the poorly considered / Frankenstein / bastard child of a spread sheet as provided.

It's very easy to follow IB, but maybe you should make the name across the top in a larger font, so people will know where to start.