Analysis T8 vs T8 - after Round 23

Top8 - rnd 11.png


Should be an interesting Round 12 given that 6 of the Top 8 play each other and we get to (hopefully) pummel * into oblivion.
Port play the Doggies at Adelaide Oval and I'd have them favourites to win that one so this is the round where the Hawks can really embed ourselves into the top 4 and put some space between us and the other 4th-9th placed teams.
 

Duvel

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View attachment 254337

Should be an interesting Round 12 given that 6 of the Top 8 play each other and we get to (hopefully) pummel * into oblivion.
Port play the Doggies at Adelaide Oval and I'd have them favourites to win that one so this is the round where the Hawks can really embed ourselves into the top 4 and put some space between us and the other 4th-9th placed teams.

A hawk friend showed me this thread some back in round 6, so I have been following with interest. It was actually useful in tipping as I tipped for Doggies over the WCE :p, getting 9/9 That and Dogs home was a factor.

However your chart is getting complicated and hurts my eyes so i had to make my own simple colours, clean version of yours... still credits to you..

Interesting to note that North will play 11 T8, 11 B10.. while all the other T8 will play 9-10.
With this analysis it is possible WCE would drop out of T8 considering their poor results against T8, and GWS will have easy ride. Also deducing from the row for Port, Carlton and maybe Melbourne with each only have 5-6 games left against Top 8, leaving them 6-5 games with bottom 10 give them a chance to sneak into position 8.
 

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Main Man

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West Coast would have to be one of the biggest downhill skiers this century...

Everyone seems to think they struggle away from home, no doubt they play better football at home but look at the teams they have beaten there, Brisbane, Freo, Richmond, Collingwood, Saints and Gold Coast, all teams currently in the bottom 7.

Only other team they have beaten this year is Port who are 9th, so yet to beat a team in the top 8.

I don't think they are necessarily that poor away from home but more that they are just a middle of the road side this year.
 
A hawk friend showed me this thread some back in round 6, so I have been following with interest. It was actually useful in tipping as I tipped for Doggies over the WCE :p, getting 9/9 That and Dogs home was a factor.

However your chart is getting complicated and hurts my eyes so i had to make my own simple colours, clean version of yours... still credits to you..

Interesting to note that North will play 11 T8, 11 B10.. while all the other T8 will play 9-10.
With this analysis it is possible WCE would drop out of T8 considering their poor results against T8, and GWS will have easy ride. Also deducing from the row for Port, Carlton and maybe Melbourne with each only have 5-6 games left against Top 8, leaving them 6-5 games with bottom 10 give them a chance to sneak into position 8.

The chart definitely suggests that the Dogs and West Coast are in danger of dropping down the ladder with the combination of having lost to every top-7 team they've played to date and at least 5 top-8 games still to be played. Sydney are looking strongest having won most of their top-8 games and only having 5 more to go. While crows and GWS have lost a fair few top-8 games, they don't have too many more left to play. North is still a little bit of an unknown since most of their top-8 games are left to play and they don't have too many easy ones from here, so it'll be a bit of a slog from here on out. They still play each top-8 side once each in the last 11 rounds.
 

Dew2KFC2Flag08

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West Coast will be fine, they've played all their top 8 games interstate. There's only been two instances this season where a top 8 team has won interstate against another top 8 team: Sydney against us and Geelong in Adelaide. I don't see them losing at home against the top 8 teams and their away draw will open up playing the likes of Brisbane, Collingwood, Carlton etc. Still a big chance of top 4.
 
West Coast will be fine, they've played all their top 8 games interstate. There's only been two instances this season where a top 8 team has won interstate against another top 8 team: Sydney against us and Geelong in Adelaide. I don't see them losing at home against the top 8 teams and their away draw will open up playing the likes of Brisbane, Collingwood, Carlton etc. Still a big chance of top 4.

Yes, but again, they haven't played a top 8 team at home yet. Hawks showed last year that it can be done. I don't believe this is just a coincidence.
 
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The chart definitely suggests that the Dogs and West Coast are in danger of dropping down the ladder with the combination of having lost to every top-7 team they've played to date and at least 5 top-8 games still to be played. Sydney are looking strongest having won most of their top-8 games and only having 5 more to go. While crows and GWS have lost a fair few top-8 games, they don't have too many more left to play. North is still a little bit of an unknown since most of their top-8 games are left to play and they don't have too many easy ones from here, so it'll be a bit of a slog from here on out. They still play each top-8 side once each in the last 11 rounds.

Which is strange given the seemingly overplayed hype for the Dogs. With the Power, Cats and Swans to come they could soon tumble...
 
The chart definitely suggests that the Dogs and West Coast are in danger of dropping down the ladder with the combination of having lost to every top-7 team they've played to date and at least 5 top-8 games still to be played. Sydney are looking strongest having won most of their top-8 games and only having 5 more to go. While crows and GWS have lost a fair few top-8 games, they don't have too many more left to play. North is still a little bit of an unknown since most of their top-8 games are left to play and they don't have too many easy ones from here, so it'll be a bit of a slog from here on out. They still play each top-8 side once each in the last 11 rounds.

Things so far turning out basically how I expected.
 
The final 8 is starting to look more or less settled and the top 4 has had a right royal re-shuffle.
Crows the only T8 team to not play last weekend.


View attachment 258662

WCE have now lost all 5 games they've played against top-8 teams. North have lost all 3 games against top-4 teams. Those are the two that are likely to drop. Crows can probably jump WCE, GWS likely to rise and Dogs likely to drop.

Current trend suggests final ladder likely to be:
Geelong
Sydney
Hawks
GWS
North
Crows
Dogs
WCE
 
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WCE have now lost all 5 games they've played against top-8 teams. North have lost all 3 games against top-4 teams. Those are the two that are likely to drop. Crows can probably jump WCE, GWS likely to rise and Dogs likely to drop.

Current trend suggests final ladder likely to be:
Geelong
Sydney
Hawks
GWS
North
Crows
Dogs
WCE

The two places above us helped with the compliments of the AFL draw. To me, this indicates to me the important our round 17 clash in Sydney. Win that, and I believe we can, and we don't have to travel interstate. Lose it, and we might have our first final against Sh1tney or Gee We're Sh1tty too, in Sydney.
 
Based on top 8 vs top 8 records, the top 4 should be Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn & GWS. ( Adelaide next in line)

Strange enough, fits exactly with my ladder too, I think you're on to something.
 
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