List Mgmt. Talk about the makeup of our list (and overall list management)

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TheGreatBarryB

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Delisting Long should be a no brainer
If that was the case the decision would have already been made.

I’m indifferent with him, was never a fan but I thought he showed a couple of little signs in the few games he got.

Not fussed either way.
 

eth-dog

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So right now we've got

Baguley to rookie
Long, Mynott (Cat A), McNiece (Cat B?), Dea unsigned
Colyer, Green, Goddard, Leuenberger, Merrett out
Shiel in
McKernan promoted

4 open senior list spots
1 open rookie list spot

Picks 34, 66, 84 and 102 available

Think that all of the unsigned will get re-signed
DFA a ruck
Bytel, Hind and another outside mid in the ND
Fletcher in the RD.
 

BrunoV

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I find it hard to think about the make up of the list without starting from a best 22, and seeing the VFL side, and working from there. It highlights what we have and what we don't have. Not so much that anyone necessarily cares but I can't be bothered repeating myself so my rationale for the side is here.

Now that we have our man, I've dropped Parish out of the team. He doesn't have the versatility of the other players whose speed and size is needed to round out the team and I seriously doubt that he'll be thought of as being ahead of any of Redman, Laverde, Langford or Ridley by the time we've seen 4 or 5 games next year.

SD-1: Saad KD-1: Hurley KD-3: Francis
HB-1: McKenna KD-2: Hooker HB-2: Redman (M)

R: Bellchambers M-1: Shield M-2: Myers
M-3: Merrett W-1: Smith W-2/HB-3: Heppel

KF-3: Stringer KF-1: Daniher MF2: Laverde (M)
SF-1: Fantasia KF-2: Stewart (R) SF-2: McDonald-Tipungwuti

I-1: McGrath (M/D) I-2: Zaharakis (M/F) I-3: Ridley (D/W) I-4: Langford (M/F)

Seconds team:

SD-1: McNiece KD-1: Ambrose KD-3: Zerk-Thatcher
HB-1: Gleeson (W) KD-2: Hartley HB-2: ________

R: Draper M-1:Parish M-2: Guelfi
M-3: Clarke W-1: Colyer W-2/HB-3: Mutch

MF-1: Begley (M) KF-1: Brown MF2: Mynott (M)
SF-1: Baguley KF-2: McKernan SF-2: Houlahan

I-1: Hartley I-2: Long I-3: Baguley I-4: Dea I-5: Leuenberger I-6: Lavender

The bench for the seconds mainly reflects current uncertainty about contract status. I don't really know what we are going to do with Lavender though I hope that we persist with the project (and I believe that he is contracted). Hartley would be in the mix with Gleeson, Parish, McKernan, Draper and Brown as the best player in that team.

Tall defenders (8): Hooker, Hurley, Francis, Ridley, Gleeson, Hartley, Ambrose and Zerk-Thatcher.
Utilities (2): Brown and Lavender.

Includes genuine key defenders and the taller guys who inevitably find themselves playing as key defenders at times during games and throughout seasons. There appears to be much more of a cross over in the roles of the taller defenders than what there is for the key, third tall and mid-sized forwards. There are obviously plenty of high quality tall defensive options.

I don't believe that there is any chance that Hartley will not be on an AFL list next year, the uncertainty surrounds whether it will be with us. I am starting to think it more likely that he will be elsewhere. It seems that Dea is not going to play AFL next year so we will end up having an extra list spot we would not have planned on. We'll want to turn that into into a player (such as Ben Long) that we might not otherwise have had the space to pursue or a higher pick and Hartley looms as the best chance to pull that off. In terms of list balance, Lavender has looked okay in defence which is where tall athletes are generally most likely to make it so I'd gladly pencil him in as a project in KD-2 above. I doubt that Mason Fletcher is not being factored into our planning either (he'd be a rookie pick we can take under the father-son rules).

Small defenders/half backs (4): Saad, McKenna, Redman and McNiece.
Utilities (2): McGrath and Guelfi.

From a list management perspective, we probably don't look at McGrath as more than a pinch hitter in defence. Ultimately he and Redman will rotate in defence and on-ball/wing but I doubt that we are going to look at McGrath as a starting defender in the future.

As much as it is a view that is likely to be met with derision, there is a genuine need on the list for another small defender/half back with genuine speed. In the seconds team above the only option, and it's purely hypothetical, would be Long. Guelfi is definitely a competent small utility in defence but I don't think that he has the pace and I think that it's important not to stretch to the utilities too thin (otherwise you end up footy's version of selecting 3 all-rounders to do the job of 2 players).

Ruckmen (2): Bellchambers and Draper.
Utilities (2): McKernan and Lavender

This has been done to death. There is real doubt that Leuenberger will play on and we're 12 months short of confidently backing Draper to be the number 2 for the sole reason that we would not want to be relying on him for an extended period in the event that Bellchambers got a significant injury.

I reckon that with the mid-season draft we'll go with Draper, we may even decide that Leuenberger is unnecessary. McKernan gives enough around the ground to be considered competent cover.

Midfielders (14): Shiels, Merrett, Heppell, Smith, Myers, McGrath, Zaharakis, Langford, Parish, Guelfi, Clarke, Colyer, Mutch, Mynott and Long.
Utilities (4): Laverde, Redman, Ridley and Begley.

The addition of Shields will be huge. We've not had that style of dynamic inside mid since Tim Watson (and I certainly did not see him in his prime). Myers is a particularly good player to have around the ball because he is a good defensive player at stoppages. Langford will be stronger and will be important to compliment Myers in the second midfield rotation.

Parish and Guelfi, as depth, is a pretty good place to start but in terms of proven midfield ability it falls way dramatically. I don't look at Clarke, Mutch and Mynott as being able to provide the cover we need next year. Who knows what we'll get from Colyer.

I'd like to think that Laverde and Ridley will get the opportunity to throw their weight around on the ball. Redman is quite a powerful, dynamic player who I'd also like to see run on the ball. These are the three players we need to make the jump and I think that at this stage they're also the most likely.

Key forwards (4): Daniher, Stewart, McKernan and Brown.
Utilities (2): Hooker and Lavender.

I still look at Daniher as a top 10 player in the competition. Picking the second key forward is probably the hardest decision. McKernan is the best option for the ruck. Stewart is the most versatile forward but his set shot goal kicking has lost the plot. The coaches absolutely love Brown who is clearly the smartest player of the three but I don't think he gives us the "key forward" structural contribution the others do.

Third tall/medium forwards (4): Stringer, Laverde, Begley and Houlahan
Utilities (1): Langford and Mynott.

To my mind, these players don't fit as neatly into the other two forward categories as the equivalents at the other end of the ground. It's not really a necessary stand alone category except that (perceived) mobility tends to be a factor differentiating selection of these players (particularly from the key forwards).

I think that Stringer is a specialist forward now.

Even if Houlahan did not survive, and he is contracted, we've got plenty of options for 2019 given the cross-over of categories.

Small forwards (3): Fantasia, McDonald-Tipungwuti and Baguley
Utilities (1): Colyer.

Whether or not Baguley is re-signed, I'd definitely be looking at bringing in another really quick small forward as there is clearly a need on the list.

I'm not sure I remember the time when Colyer played as a small forward but there seems to be a commonly held view that he has done it so I have put him in as a utility.

List changes: Goddard, Green, Merrett are definitely gone. I'd bet that Leuenberger and Dea retire. Draper will take Leuenberger's spot and Sheels is taking another list spot. So we currently have two primary list spots and a rookie list spot which are free.

I suspect that we would have heard something by now if we were going to try to trade Colyer out. Hartley is really the only player, at this stage and having heard nothing, that we could use to try to improve our draft position.

I don't know that I would persist with Jake Long but it is very surprising that our season ended 7 weeks ago but he has survived to this point whereas Jackson Merrett has not. I've also read that Baguley being offered a contract is dependent on what else happens with the rest of the list. Long is the only player we have heard absolutely nothing about. I don't usually pay attention to brotherly love selection conspiracies, and I'm not sure if he is close with his cousin, but maybe Jake's fate is tied in with his cousin's. Hartley is, again, important, because there have been a number of times in the last few years where we have held on to known commodities rather than using really late selections. We might try to turn Long's spot into Hind but we also might not get that opportunity.

When I think about the weakness on our list it's the proven ball winning ability of the midfield and, to a less extent, the running power in the middle of the ground. Shiel goes a long way to addressing that weakness, though he's not a renowned two-way runner, and just as importantly there is natural development of the list.

When entering the draft at pick 34, I'm definitely not of the view that the player has to be a midfielder. I think that "best available" that late in a draft is an assessment which is generally linked to need.

If a Worpel, for example, were to slide we'd have to think long and hard about selecting that player. If there was a Redman available (both in terms of the low trade profile and style of player) I think that we will select the Redman and, given the spread of the list above, I would agree with the selection (and I think Worpel will end up being a really good player, making plenty of recruiters look foolish).

We've committed ourselves to the midfield options so I think we have to see how that plays out. If there is no clear standout which could cause us to re-think strategy I think that we recruit for parts of the list where we have no depth of options.

I'd be looking at:

Pick 34: Running half back/defender (with an eye to developing as defender/midfield utility)
Pick 66: Small forward
Pick 88: Draper promotion
Rookie: Tall athletic utility (ideally big enough to be a ruck man)

I'd dearly like to have another pick in the 40s as it does seem that there will be a few meat-axe mids who will be available around the range. I'd also have to think long and hard about an endurance machine in the middle.

The other thing that the exercise does is highlight how useful a player like Jack Martin would be. He could play forward or back and kill two bird with one stone but I still have reservations about the cost. I'd really like to know what Laverde, Redman and Langford do in the middle next year before committing next year's first round pick to Martin.


Edits: changes following list announcements underlined and struck out.

Wanted to put it all together following final list changes.

Best 22:


SD-1: Saad KD-1: Hurley KD-3: Francis
HB-1: McKenna KD-2: Hooker HB-2: Redman (M)

R: Bellchambers M-1: Shield M-2: Myers
M-3: Merrett W-1: Smith W-2/HB-3: Heppel

KF-3: Stringer KF-1: Daniher MF2: Laverde (M)
SF-1: Fantasia KF-2: Stewart (R) SF-2: McDonald-Tipungwuti

I-1: McGrath (M/D) I-2: Zaharakis (M/F) I-3: Ridley (D/W) I-4: Langford (M/F)

VFL team:


SD-1: McNiece KD-1: Ambrose KD-3: Zerk-Thatcher
HB-1: Gleeson (W) KD-2: Hartley HB-2: Jok

R: Draper M-1:Parish M-2: Guelfi
M-3: Clarke W-1: Long W-2/HB-3: Mutch

MF-1: Begley (M) KF-2: Brown MF2: Mynott (M)
SF-1: Baguley KF-1: McKernan SF-2: Mosquito

I-1: Gown I-2: Houlahan I-3: Ham I-4: Dea I-5: Lavender I-6: Clarke (R)


The list is extremely well balanced. Granted, there are a lot of speculative picks in the VFL side but that's inevitable. A thing that we do get right, as frustrating as it can be, is that players are the best chance of making it when they are developed in roles that translate directly to the AFL team. That's why it's essential to have all all bases covered.

I assume that we're not going to sign that Irish boy.

Another form of list break down:


Tall defenders (8): Hooker, Hurley, Francis, Ridley, Gleeson, Hartley, Ambrose and Zerk-Thatcher.
Utilities (3): Brown, Jok and Lavender.

Small defenders/half backs (4): Saad, McKenna, Redman and McNiece.
Utilities (3): McGrath, Jok and Guelfi.

Ruckmen (3): Bellchambers, Draper and Clarke.
Utilities (2): McKernan and Lavender

Midfielders (15): Shiels, Merrett, Heppell, Smith, Myers, McGrath, Zaharakis, Langford, Parish, Guelfi, Clarke, Mutch, Mynott, Long and Ham.
Utilities (5): Laverde, Redman, Ridley, Begley and Jok.

Key forwards (5): Daniher, Stewart, McKernan, Brown and Gown.
Utilities (2): Hooker and Lavender.

Third tall/medium forwards (4): Stringer, Laverde, Begley and Houlahan
Utilities (1): Langford and Mynott.

Small forwards (4): Fantasia, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Baguley and Mosquito
 
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eth-dog

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I think given we've brought in Gown I'd like to see Lavender developed mostly in defence this year. Struggles to read the play forward of centre.
 

fishardansin

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Wanted to put it all together following final list changes.

Best 22:


SD-1: Saad KD-1: Hurley KD-3: Francis
HB-1: McKenna KD-2: Hooker HB-2: Redman (M)

R: Bellchambers M-1: Shield M-2: Myers
M-3: Merrett W-1: Smith W-2/HB-3: Heppel

KF-3: Stringer KF-1: Daniher MF2: Laverde (M)
SF-1: Fantasia KF-2: Stewart (R) SF-2: McDonald-Tipungwuti

I-1: McGrath (M/D) I-2: Zaharakis (M/F) I-3: Ridley (D/W) I-4: Langford (M/F)

VFL team:


SD-1: McNiece KD-1: Ambrose KD-3: Zerk-Thatcher
HB-1: Gleeson (W) KD-2: Hartley HB-2: Jok

R: Draper M-1:Parish M-2: Guelfi
M-3: Clarke W-1: Long W-2/HB-3: Mutch

MF-1: Begley (M) KF-1: Brown MF2: Mynott (M)
SF-1: Baguley KF-2: McKernan SF-2: Mosquito

I-1: Gown I-2: Houlahan I-3: Ham I-4: Dea I-5: Lavender I-6:


The list is extremely well balanced. Granted, there are a lot of speculative picks in the VFL side but that's inevitable. A thing that we do get right, as frustrating as it can be, is that players are the best chance of making it when they are developed in roles that translate directly to the AFL team. That's why it's essential to have all all bases covered.

I assume that we're not going to sign that Irish boy.

Another form of list break down:


Tall defenders (8): Hooker, Hurley, Francis, Ridley, Gleeson, Hartley, Ambrose and Zerk-Thatcher.
Utilities (3): Brown, Jok and Lavender.

Small defenders/half backs (4): Saad, McKenna, Redman and McNiece.
Utilities (3): McGrath, Jok and Guelfi.

Ruckmen (3): Bellchambers, Draper and Clarke.
Utilities (2): McKernan and Lavender

Midfielders (15): Shiels, Merrett, Heppell, Smith, Myers, McGrath, Zaharakis, Langford, Parish, Guelfi, Clarke, Mutch, Mynott, Long and Ham.
Utilities (5): Laverde, Redman, Ridley, Begley and Jok.

Key forwards (5): Daniher, Stewart, McKernan, Brown and Gown.
Utilities (2): Hooker and Lavender.

Third tall/medium forwards (4): Stringer, Laverde, Begley and Houlahan
Utilities (1): Langford and Mynott.

Small forwards (4): Fantasia, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Baguley and Mosquito
If we get small midfield minutes from Stringer and Francis, medium midfield minutes from Laverde and we have Langford and Myers in good form, then we have a VERY well balanced team. Obviously, Daniher, Redman and Gleeson are worries but if we have an injury free year I'd expect comfortably making AFL finals and would be hoping for VFL flag.

Re selection, I'd have McKernan in front of Stewart if McKernan replicates last year's form. I also think Gleeson is ahead of Redman and Ridley still. After the injury today, it is doubtful Redman will be playing much next year either.
 
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If we get small midfield minutes from Stringer and Francis, medium midfield minutes from Laverde and we have Langford and Myers in good form, then we have a VERY well balanced team. Obviously, Daniher, Redman and Gleeson are worries but if we have an injury free year I'd expect comfortably making AFL finals and would be hoping for VFL flag.

Re selection, I'd have McKernan in front of Stewart if McKernan replicates last year's form. I also think Gleeson is ahead of Redman and Ridley still. After the injury today, it is doubtful Redman will be playing much next year either.
Agree with this - McKernan is ahead of Stewart but both might be playing seniors if Daniher doesn't come up as quickly as we are all hoping...
Regardless our list is still very well balanced, I think the round 1 AFL & VFL teams will look something like;-

AFL

Francis Hurley McKenna
McGrath Hooker Saad
Zakka Heppell Smith
Langford Daniher Fantasia
Stringer McKernan Tippa

Bellcho Shiel Z.Merrett

Bench from: Myers Gleeson Parish Laverde


VFL

Ambrose Hartley Jok
Ridley Margaret Long
Mutch Mynott Ham
Begley Brown Mosquoito
Draper Stewart Baguley

Z.Clarke Guelfi D.Clarke

Bench from: Dea Houlahan Gown Redman Lavender McNeice
 

eth-dog

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Overall breakdown of the list:

Defence

Key Defenders: Michael Hartley, Michael Hurley, Cale Hooker (fwd), Aaron Francis, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Paddy Ambrose
Small/Medium Defenders: Martin Gleeson, Conor McKenna (mid), Adam Saad, Ben McNiece, Jordan Ridley, Mason Redman (mid), Matt Dea, Tom Jok (fwd)

Overall it's an area of strength. It really splits nicely into two groups of 7 with (in my opinion) the first 7 being Hurley, Hooker, Francis, Gleeson, McKenna, Saad and Ridley/Redman, the others in the second group. Apart from Jok and the Bezerker I think all of them would be able to play good first 22 football this year.

Midfield

Inside Leaning Midfielders: Matt Guelfi (def), Devon Smith (fwd), Dyson Heppell, David Myers, Trent Mynott, Dylan Shiel, Zach Merrett, Kyle Langford (fwd), Darcy Parish, Kobe Mutch, Dylan Clarke
Outside Leaning Midfielders: Jake Long (fwd), David Zaharakis (fwd), Brayden Ham (fwd), Andrew McGrath (def)
Rucks: Tom Bellchambers (fwd), Zachary Clarke (fwd), Sam Draper

Obviously the outside leaning isn't a long list but all of Smith, Heppell, Merrett, Langford, Parish and Mutch can play the in between roles quite well too. I don't know much about Ham but I'm hoping he starts on a wing round 1.

Forward

Key Forwards: Joe Daniher (ruc), James Stewart (ruc), Jake Stringer (mid), Shaun McKernan (ruc), Mitchell brown (def), Luke Lavender (def/ruc), Noah Gown
Small/Medium Forwards: Josh Begley (mid), Jayden Laverde (mid), Orazio Fantasia (mid), Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (mid), Jordan Houlahan (def), Mark Baguley, Irving Mosquito

The great thing about this area of the ground is that most can play multiple positions. In regards to Lavender and Houlahan I'm hoping they spend some time in the back 50 this year as it could help them learn more about the game, especially in Lav's case.

Overall it's a very strong list with my biggest area of concern being the outside leaning midfield, even though we have plenty of speed from half back and half forward, it would be nice to have a bit more balance in that grouping. Our biggest strength this year I feel will be our back 7, there are a lot of good intercept marks there so as long as there's pressure up the field and teams try to bomb it I have faith we'll do well.
 
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un_eggs

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Agree with this - McKernan is ahead of Stewart but both might be playing seniors if Daniher doesn't come up as quickly as we are all hoping...
Regardless our list is still very well balanced, I think the round 1 AFL & VFL teams will look something like;-

AFL

Francis Hurley McKenna
McGrath Hooker Saad
Zakka Heppell Smith
Langford Daniher Fantasia
Stringer McKernan Tippa

Bellcho Shiel Z.Merrett

Bench from: Myers Gleeson Parish Laverde


VFL

Ambrose Hartley Jok
Ridley Margaret Long
Mutch Mynott Ham
Begley Brown Mosquoito
Draper Stewart Baguley

Z.Clarke Guelfi D.Clarke

Bench from: Dea Houlahan Gown Redman Lavender McNeice
Zerk?
 

BrunoV

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If we get small midfield minutes from Stringer and Francis, medium midfield minutes from Laverde and we have Langford and Myers in good form, then we have a VERY well balanced team. Obviously, Daniher, Redman and Gleeson are worries but if we have an injury free year I'd expect comfortably making AFL finals and would be hoping for VFL flag.

Re selection, I'd have McKernan in front of Stewart if McKernan replicates last year's form. I also think Gleeson is ahead of Redman and Ridley still. After the injury today, it is doubtful Redman will be playing much next year either.

If I was putting money on a starting team for round 1, injuries not being a factor, I think your choices are more likely.

I doubt that my team takes the field.
 

BrunoV

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I think given we've brought in Gown I'd like to see Lavender developed mostly in defence this year. Struggles to read the play forward of centre.

The recruitment of another two talls makes things difficult for Lavender. He's young and I assume they'll give him the full 3 years if they think there is enough to work with but finding a spot for him is going to be difficult.

I'd definitely like to see him play at CHB next year. It was always going to be the best place for him to start. He can at least use his athleticism to stick on a forward and learn the game that way.

The problem there is that we've got stacks of options already.

It was always going to be a difficult road and now it's looking even worse.

We signed him to develop him forward and on ball so I guess we just persist. I have to admit it doesn't look like coming together forward any time soon.
 
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