Strategy Talk about the makeup of our list (and overall list management)

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Schnitzengruben

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He had a TOG of 61%. Only SPS and Dow had a smaller TOG. I agree that he's promising and he showed a bit but a 2 year deal is absolutely right at this stage of his career. Added to that is that we're often conservatie in terms of deal length.
I'm not really sure how relevant the TOG is for a 19 year old first gamer ruckman. For comparison, Nic Nat had 63%, Lycett 78%, Nankervis 78% etc. Not exactly worlds apart until the Gawn/Grundy level.

He's young and raw but if you could sign him to a 3-4 year deal on similar money to what Draper is - it could prove to be a bargain in 1-2 years time.

Medium risk/high reward. He might not come on like we'd hoped, might injure himself etc. But compare that to some of the other deals in the comp and I think it's a risk I'd be willing to take.

All I'm saying is if he continues the form he showed on the weekend - at 19 - other clubs WILL come for him. No question, and they will offer him longer than 2 years.
 

eth-dog

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I'm not really sure how relevant the TOG is for a 19 year old first gamer ruckman. For comparison, Nic Nat had 63%, Lycett 78%, Nankervis 78% etc. Not exactly worlds apart until the Gawn/Grundy level.

He's young and raw but if you could sign him to a 3-4 year deal on similar money to what Draper is - it could prove to be a bargain in 1-2 years time.

Medium risk/high reward. He might not come on like we'd hoped, might injure himself etc. But compare that to some of the other deals in the comp and I think it's a risk I'd be willing to take.

All I'm saying is if he continues the form he showed on the weekend - at 19 - other clubs WILL come for him. No question, and they will offer him longer than 2 years.
In game time sense (125-ish minutes of game time), 78% is a little under 100 minutes on the ground, 61% is a tad over 75 minutes. It's a huge difference in terms of TOG.

I don't think what he's done warrants more than 2 years.
 

BrunoV

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No need to jump at shadows re Bryan.

He has an obvious spot in a best 22 even as early to 2022 working in tandem with Draper. He made an effort to talk about playing with his best mates in that post-debut video. The clubs looks like it is a great place to be again. Everyone seems to be pulling in the same direction.

No one is offering Bryan the sort of money that would even have him thinking twice. By that I mean $600k, not $400k when he'll get $300-$350k. Bryan is not holding down number 1 ruck next year and I don't even think 2023 (given how light he is compared to Draper). We might get squeezed into paying $50 to $100k more than we thought we would need to 2 months ago but that's no big deal given what we have just lost.

We can build incentives into a shorter term deal or issue him the challenge of becoming good enough that he sets his own price (and I think he could be that good by the end of 2023 as a forward/ruck).

This is such a non-story it isn't funny.
 

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citizen-erased

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About 1/3 of the way through our season I'm here:

3+ years: Darcy Parish, Jake Stringer
2 years: Jayden Laverde, Harrison Jones, Nick Bryan, Mason Redman, Will Snelling
1 year: Cale Hooker (if he doesn't retire), Ned Cahill, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Andrew Phillips*, Matthew Guelfi+, Lachlan Johnson, Kaine Baldwin, Cian McBride, Alec Waterman, Tom Hird

Delist/retire: Martin Gleeson, David Zaharakis (ret), Tom Cutler, Irving Mosquito, Patrick Ambrose, Dylan Clarke

Trade/FA:

1. Zach Merrett to Melbourne (gut says he's going,even though I don't want him to).

2. Future 2nd round pick for George Hewett (Dreaming, I know. But perfect for our midfield).

Leaves us with 4 open spots on the list, all of which can be filled in the national draft (taking into account 1 of the SSP and our MSD pick). Just using the current ladder, gives us picks 4, 5 (or 5 and 6 when the Daicos bid comes in), 42 and 54 (before taking other FA's and FS/academy players into account).

Pick 5: Matthew Johnson (191 cm/80 kg inside midfielder, Subiaco)
Pick 6: Josh Sinn (186/72 half back/wing)
Pick 42: Ideally another inside midfielder
Pick 54: Small forward

*Not sure if he gets renewed. Very injury prone
+There were rumours he wanted to go back home last year.

This is assuming list sizes remain the same.
i like most of this other than Merrett going. i just can't.
Bryan & Jones could go to 3, but 2 is fine and they can be ready to negotiate next deal after 2 more years exposure.

Matt Johnson sounds ideal for us.
I'd be happier with Merrett over Sinn even over the long run.

Love the idea of Hewett. Esp if we can do via FA (assuming Merrett stays, Swans aren't in the market for a FA).
Just get the contract to a point they'd get a 2nd. Can surely afford.
Also keeps ability to trade F1 open should we cross the Dunkley bridge again.

Long shot, but i'm a fan of keeping teams honest; i'd put good money in front of Bolton.
creative, hard runner with great skills.

I'd be hitting the MSD up too.
LTI Moz (esp if we're gonna delist) & Shiel (cotton ball him for 2022)
I'd do Hurley too and get him to focus on health this year. not playing
4 MSD auditions for various spots.
 

Schnitzengruben

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In game time sense (125-ish minutes of game time), 78% is a little under 100 minutes on the ground, 61% is a tad over 75 minutes. It's a huge difference in terms of TOG.

I don't think what he's done warrants more than 2 years.
So far, yeah....after one game. But If he plays another 5-10 games this year with similar output to what he did on the weekend - I have no doubt 3-4 year offers will come. In which case - do we match it or let him walk? I know what I'd be doing.


No one is offering Bryan the sort of money that would even have him thinking twice. By that I mean $600k, not $400k when he'll get $300-$350k. Bryan is not holding down number 1 ruck next year and I don't even think 2023 (given how light he is compared to Draper). We might get squeezed into paying $50 to $100k more than we thought we would need to 2 months ago but that's no big deal given what we have just lost.
We're on the same page in monetary terms but I was saying with Ethan it will be more so length of the contract.

If that David King rumour is true and the Suns come along and offer him 3-4 years on $350-400k, would we not be matching it?
 

BrunoV

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Nah. Draper legitimately dominated games in the VFL. Bryan is promising but he's not where Draper was.

How quickly yesterday's great white hope gets dumped for today's.

Draper basically is a bona fide gun. I'd hazard a guess that he dominates Bryan in ruck drills in a way Pittonet could only dream of. We're talking about a man who's about an inch taller and 10 to 15 kgs heavier than Bryan but who could legitimate jump into Nic Nat and look a worthy opponent.

How many 40-50+ hit out games did Draper have in year 2? It was a lot.

Draper clearly doesn't have the class or natural footballing ability of Bryan. Bryan looks a superior athlete but the difference is not huge. What Bryan doesn't have is the 15 kgs that and the innate grunt that made Draper a viable number 1 in year 3 when we decided to pick Zac Clarke instead. Bryan's not adding that size in 1 pre-season and he probably never is because he has a different build.
 

citizen-erased

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How quickly yesterday's great white hope gets dumped for today's.

Draper basically is a bona fide gun. I'd hazard a guess that he dominates Bryan in ruck drills in a way Pittonet could only dream of. We're talking about a man who's about an inch taller and 10 to 15 kgs heavier than Bryan but who could legitimate jump into Nic Nat and look a worthy opponent.

How many 40-50+ hit out games did Draper have in year 2? It was a lot.

Draper clearly doesn't have the class or natural footballing ability of Bryan. Bryan looks a superior athlete but the difference is not huge. What Bryan doesn't have is the 15 kgs that and the innate grunt that made Draper a viable number 1 in year 3 when we decided to pick Zac Clarke instead. Bryan's not adding that size in 1 pre-season and he probably never is because he has a different build.
I'd look to do with Bryan what Melb have with Jackson.
Build slowly, but he's support who can use natural ability to play other roles.
Our balance is different given Bryan and Draper are both young.

No issue if Bryan uses his nous to replace Hooker and slide in along Jones and whoever else makes it from Eyre/Baldwin/Wright etc.
 

eth-dog

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i like most of this other than Merrett going. i just can't.
Bryan & Jones could go to 3, but 2 is fine and they can be ready to negotiate next deal after 2 more years exposure.

Matt Johnson sounds ideal for us.
I'd be happier with Merrett over Sinn even over the long run.

Love the idea of Hewett. Esp if we can do via FA (assuming Merrett stays, Swans aren't in the market for a FA).
Just get the contract to a point they'd get a 2nd. Can surely afford.
Also keeps ability to trade F1 open should we cross the Dunkley bridge again.

Long shot, but i'm a fan of keeping teams honest; i'd put good money in front of Bolton.
creative, hard runner with great skills.

I'd be hitting the MSD up too.
LTI Moz (esp if we're gonna delist) & Shiel (cotton ball him for 2022)
I'd do Hurley too and get him to focus on health this year. not playing
4 MSD auditions for various spots.
I understand. I still think he's going.

If Merrett stayed I'd 100% try via FA for Hewett, but if he goes then trading is a better route for us as signing him will affect the compensation we get for Zach, even if it just downgrades it from band 1 to band 2. Otherwise it would rely on Hooker, Zaka or Gleeson to leave via FA cancel that out.

I like Shai Bolton but he's not leaving Richmond for us.
So far, yeah....after one game. But If he plays another 5-10 games this year with similar output to what he did on the weekend - I have no doubt 3-4 year offers will come. In which case - do we match it or let him walk? I know what I'd be doing.



We're on the same page in monetary terms but I was saying with Ethan it will be more so length of the contract.

If that David King rumour is true and the Suns come along and offer him 3-4 years on $350-400k, would we not be matching it?
I disagree, but you can always do 2 years with a trigger clause that he plays a very amount of games at both levels over the 2 years that it automatically extends into a 3rd.
How quickly yesterday's great white hope gets dumped for today's.

Draper basically is a bona fide gun. I'd hazard a guess that he dominates Bryan in ruck drills in a way Pittonet could only dream of. We're talking about a man who's about an inch taller and 10 to 15 kgs heavier than Bryan but who could legitimate jump into Nic Nat and look a worthy opponent.

How many 40-50+ hit out games did Draper have in year 2? It was a lot.

Draper clearly doesn't have the class or natural footballing ability of Bryan. Bryan looks a superior athlete but the difference is not huge. What Bryan doesn't have is the 15 kgs that and the innate grunt that made Draper a viable number 1 in year 3 when we decided to pick Zac Clarke instead. Bryan's not adding that size in 1 pre-season and he probably never is because he has a different build.
He had six 40+ hit out games, 3 of which were 60+. His last 12 games he averaged 43 hitouts a game.
 

citizen-erased

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I understand. I still think he's going.

If Merrett stayed I'd 100% try via FA for Hewett, but if he goes then trading is a better route for us as signing him will affect the compensation we get for Zach, even if it just downgrades it from band 1 to band 2. Otherwise it would rely on Hooker, Zaka or Gleeson to leave via FA cancel that out.

I like Shai Bolton but he's not leaving Richmond for us.
no harm in keeping the tigers honest though ;)

i am doing the classic fingers in my ears, la la la can't hear you on Merrett to anyone who mentions it.
may need to isolate for a bit if he goes :p
 

Yoda_

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I know BrunoV touched on this recently but we should really start to specialise and be upgrading on our ‘role’ players. Yes, I’m looking at the ones always mentioned who just seem to play. If we can turn a Smith/Snelling/Ham into a Rozzee/Rankine fwd with spunk I’d be happy with that.

Our go to player is the “what are they” type, I mean look at our VFL midfield (AFL listed) from the weekend. Cahil (AFL small fwd), Lachlan Johnson (I see an AFL small def there), Tom Cutler (wingman at 190+cm). I just don’t get our selections. If we can finally focus on specialists and develop them in there natural junior positions that’d be also great and give us a better chance of sustained success.


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andleanback

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So far, yeah....after one game. But If he plays another 5-10 games this year with similar output to what he did on the weekend - I have no doubt 3-4 year offers will come. In which case - do we match it or let him walk? I know what I'd be doing.



We're on the same page in monetary terms but I was saying with Ethan it will be more so length of the contract.

If that David King rumour is true and the Suns come along and offer him 3-4 years on $350-400k, would we not be matching it?
We wouldn’t have to match it just like Draper, just up our offer to keep him happy. Most likely 2-3 years at 300 odd. That’s not too much for Top 40 players going onto their 2nd contract. Bryan is very close with a lot of the boys can’t see him leave to go to the gc tbh.
 

Schnitzengruben

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If we can turn a Smith/Snelling/Ham into a Rozzee/Rankine fwd with spunk I’d be happy with that.
Jesus could turn Water into Wine but I doubt we can turn Snelling into Rankine.

We wouldn’t have to match it just like Draper, just up our offer to keep him happy. Most likely 2-3 years at 300 odd. That’s not too much for Top 40 players going onto their 2nd contract. Bryan is very close with a lot of the boys can’t see him leave to go to the gc tbh.
Yeah I agree. From what I've seen on socials they seem very close which is good. But no doubt his management would use all other offers he receives as leverage over us for a better deal.
 

BrunoV

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I know BrunoV touched on this recently but we should really start to specialise and be upgrading on our ‘role’ players. Yes, I’m looking at the ones always mentioned who just seem to play. If we can turn a Smith/Snelling/Ham into a Rozzee/Rankine fwd with spunk I’d be happy with that.

Our go to player is the “what are they” type, I mean look at our VFL midfield (AFL listed) from the weekend. Cahil (AFL small fwd), Lachlan Johnson (I see an AFL small def there), Tom Cutler (wingman at 190+cm). I just don’t get our selections. If we can finally focus on specialists and develop them in there natural junior positions that’d be also great and give us a better chance of sustained success.


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No way is Johnson an AFL small defender. There is no such thing as an AFL small defender who is that slow.
 

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Bunk Moreland

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How quickly yesterday's great white hope gets dumped for today's.

Draper basically is a bona fide gun. I'd hazard a guess that he dominates Bryan in ruck drills in a way Pittonet could only dream of. We're talking about a man who's about an inch taller and 10 to 15 kgs heavier than Bryan but who could legitimate jump into Nic Nat and look a worthy opponent.

How many 40-50+ hit out games did Draper have in year 2? It was a lot.

Draper clearly doesn't have the class or natural footballing ability of Bryan. Bryan looks a superior athlete but the difference is not huge. What Bryan doesn't have is the 15 kgs that and the innate grunt that made Draper a viable number 1 in year 3 when we decided to pick Zac Clarke instead. Bryan's not adding that size in 1 pre-season and he probably never is because he has a different build.
The problem we can’t forget is injury. Draper is 10 senior games off an ACL and is now missing the best part of another season with his current injury. These are major injuries that will affect him. While you hope for the best, we have to be very wary of the fact that Draper could be highly injury prone. It’s already destroyed two seasons for him, and he plays like a wrecking ball. It doesn’t matter how big you are, at AFL level that takes its toll.
 

Bombermania

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There was some "what would you do if you were in charge of North" discussion in the Non-Essendon Thread that really piqued my interest.

Watching the bottom of our list play against Brisbane in the VFL yesterday it struck me that my overall strategy for managing our list would not be that different.

I suspect our injury list has created a largely false impression about the overall health of our list. In reality, we're in a pretty dire situation in which we need to turn over another 10 to 12 spots (which makes for half a list in 2 years - which is as full a rebuild as any side should undergo). That's a very hard thing to do when the starting point is an average 2 picks a year that make it (i.e. your first and second round pick).

In reality we have 2 midfielders who are injured, Shiel and Caldwell. The 3rd injured midfielder, Clarke, was not even playing midfield at AFL level when he last got a look because his kicking is such a liability, has been converted into a pressure forward.

Our other small injured players are Mosquito who is very much borderline as an AFL prospect due to a lack of natural endurance and issues with his professionalism (I might even take to praying this isn't so because the industry deserves to see what this guy could do in full flight but that doesn't change the reality of the situation) and Zaharakis who almost no one on this board wants to see picked in any future AFL side.

That brings me to yesterday in which we saw AFL listed smalls Cahill, Johnson and Hird taking on their counterparts at Brisbane (in no particular order): Ely Smith, Coackatoo, Dev Robertsen, Coleman, Coleman, big powerful, hard running Irishman 1, big powerful, hard running Irishman 2, Mathieson, Harry Sharp and Brock Smith. It's the complete contrast in styles of player let alone quality that is really alarming. The Lions are powerful, well built and/or quick and super hard running.

Even if everything goes according to plan, what exactly are Cahill, Johnson and Hird supposed to become? What version of them are you ever looking at on another list thinking they'd be good in red and black? It really makes the decisions to move on all 3 of Hibberd, Begley and Mutch last year that much more bizarre. Then you look at our Plan A at the draft where we bid on Maurice Rioli Jr (might as well be Mosquito again from what I can tell but not as good) and a lightening quick half back NGA tied to Freo with the picks we ended up using on Eyre and Brand.

We hear a lot of talk about culture as though it is something that can just be transplanted or materialised out of thin air with little regard for how it is that culture reflects the attitudes of the players drafted. You could argue, comprehensively, that we're a bunch of cheats who think we're going to come good ignoring the 2 ways a midfield can be good: a dominant physical, first touch midfield (i.e. the Dogs or Port) or an ultra hard working, hard running set of secondary clearance specialist (i.e. Richmond or Hawthorn 13-15). At no point since the fading of the 2000 era have we been in the top handful of clubs when it comes to the sort of hard-nosed professionalism and work ethic that good sides are renowned for. We do not draft aggressive inside players and have only just started drafting players who can run. We don't really draft hard working players as a rule.

With this in mind, it is very difficult to accept that we should just go to the draft to try to find the sorts of affordable players on the lists of other clubs who we don't ever seem to look at when at the draft table. It's why I continue to have reservations about Dodoro. If you're being ultra critical of him, which I don't think is unreasonable, the 2020 draft seems simply to have thrown up 2 of the coveted flankers to play midfield (i.e. Cox and Perkins) that Dodoro picks 9/10 time and who on sheer weight of numbers look like they will finally work out.

If I was in charge at North, I'd being trying to get as many picks between 35 and 60 as I can in the next 2 years to get my hands on 2nd to 4th year players who have the capacity to play footy the way I'd want it to be played but, who primarily as the result of a lack of opportunity, are not going to cost me more than picks that I'd otherwise be using to speculate on types of players I hope but wont know will be available.

I've put together the below list of players with a focus on price being 3rd round or later and a contract status I could start to leverage tomorrow if I wanted (there are some exceptions). North need an almost complete overhaul which is only 12 months old and which covers every part of the ground. I was trying to put together a 22 but it got a bit hard as I was already reaching on players like Ling (who I've seen almost nothing of in his 4 years in the system) and the forwards aren't really there because they're too expensive. Note that the age is the age the player will turn in 2022.

TALLS
Connor Ballenden (Brisbane)
23 (1999), 200cm/101kg, 2017 pick 43
Tall utility. Very athletic.
Not really getting a look at all (behind a great spine with significant depth). Looked great in defence vs Ess VFL.
Contracted until 2021.
Lewis Young (Bulldogs)
24 (1997), 197cm/96kg, 2016 pick 49
Tall defender.
Beveridge can be stubborn as a mule. Young has shown a lot from what I’ve seen and moves very well.
Not really in best 22 calcs without injury.
Contracted until 2021.
Oscar Clavarino (St Kilda)
23 (1999), 197cm/90 kg, 2017 pick 35
Tall defender – underage AA.
No opportunity. Passed by good players in Howard and Wilkie.
Contracted until 2021.
Fischer McAsey (Adelaide)
21 (2001), 197cm/91kg, 2019 pick 6
Tall defender .
Wants to come back to Melbourne. Possible spooge so that needs to be kept in mind.
Contracted until 2021.
Harrison Petty (Melbourne)
23 (1999), 197cm/90kg, 2017 pick 37
Tall defender.
Lack of opportunity behind a glut of KPDs at Melbourne.
Contracted until 2022.
Lloyd Meek (Fremantle)
24 (1998), 203cm/111kg, 2017 pick 69
Big physical ruckman with good endurance. A bigger, more mobile Pittonet.
D’Arcy is the number 1 and Lobb is the KPF/2nd ruck. Going to struggle to play AFL. Should end up at Geelong.
Contracted until 2021.
Callum Coleman Jones (Richmond)
23 (1999), 2010cm/102kg, 2017 pick 20
Ruck / tall forward.
Going to struggle for opportunity. Has a bit of class. Could hold down KPD2/2nd ruck.
Contracted until 2021.
Sam Hayes (Port)
23 (1999), 203cm/102kgs, 2017 pick 47
Ruckman. Dominant underage AA who has matured (and it was needed by all reports).
Stuck behind 2 guys with a minimum of 4 years left. Possibly gettable but would cost too much at this stage.
Contracted until 2023.
MIDS + WINGS
Ely Smith (Brisbane)
22 (2000), 187cm/90kg, 2018 pick 21
Supposedly psychotic, big inside mid with a bit of explosive power.
Lack of opportunity?
Contracted until 2022.
Xavier O’Halloran (GWS)
22 (2000), 186cm/86kg, 2018 pick 22
Hard running inside mid. Leader.
Opportunity? Likely victim of inevitable Giants squeeze.
Contracted until 2022.
Jay Rantall (Collingwood)
21 (2001), 184cm/82kg, 2019 pick 40
Freak hard running inside mid (5:50 2km).
Likely to continue to struggle for opportunity given 2020 draft and Daicos.
Contracted until 2021.
Jack Ross (Richmond)
22 (2000), 187cm/85kg, 2018 pick 43
Prolific inside mid.
Richmond is stacked and he’s not best 22 at the moment.
Contracted until 2022.
Finn McGinness (Hawthorn)
21 (2001), 187cm/85kg, 2019 pick 29
Freak hard running inside mid (5:50 2km).
Doesn’t seem to fit into team with Mitchell, Worpel and O’Meara.
Contracted until 2021.
Liam Stocker (Carlton)
22 (2000), 184cm/83kg, 2018 pick 19
Inside mid.
Not getting games despite supposedly high level pre-season.
Contracted until 2022.
Charlie Constable (Geelong)
23 (1999), 191cm/ 87kg, 2017 pick 36
Inside mid.
Already told last year he was free to leave for opportunity.
Contracted until 2021.
Deven Robertson (Brisbane)
21 (2001), 182cm/80kg, 2018 pick 22
Hard-nosed pro inside mid and leader.
Seems to be a long way back in hierarchy.
Contracted until 2022.
FLANKERS AND SMALLS
Connor Stone (GWS)
20 (2002), 188cm/85kgs, 2020 pick 15
Powerful flanker/midfielder – see Ryan Griffen.
I really just like as a player and put him on the list because there is still enough of a glut of talent at GWS that a player like him will struggle for opportunity.
Contracted until 2022.
Matthew Ling (Sydney)
23 (1999), 184cm/80kgs, 2017 pick 14
Quick half back.
Not getting a look. Pure speculation on my part as I couldn’t really find another quick flanker in the range I am looking at who would be getable.
Contracted until 2021.
Ben Ronke (Sydney)
25 (1997), 183cm/78kg, 2016 rookie pick 16
Explosive small forward. Pressure player. Bit older than I’d otherwise be looking at but he could be very effective if he can get fit.
Suspect he’s done as anything but depth at Sydney.
Contracted until 2021.
Kane Farrell (Port)
23 (1999), 182cm/74kg, 2017 pick 51
Flanker who kicks missiles.
Port is stacked.
Out of contract 2021.

At Essendon, I'd be trying to turn a player or two / 3 to 4 picks between 35 and 60 over the next 2 years into Smith, O'Halloran, Ross, McGuinness and Rantall. Contemporary wisdom is that you take the picks to the draft but I see no reason not to try to fast track things where the issue is opportunity rather than quality (see Caldwell) and I also see no real reason why we won't just end up with the equivalent of Parish, McGrath, Begley, Mutch, Clarke and Mynott as our next haul of mids.

We have the scope to turn the list over this year but we need to be appropriately realistic about the capabilities of certain players. I just hope Dodoro doesn't sh*t the bed like he did when he signed a clearly struggling Devon Smith to a 2 year deal in April.
What is the problem with Mozzie's professionalism?

I don't see Bryan accepting any offer to leave unless he isn't gelling with team mates.

I'm hearing conflicting stories about whether Merrett is going or staying.
 
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eth-dog

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I know BrunoV touched on this recently but we should really start to specialise and be upgrading on our ‘role’ players. Yes, I’m looking at the ones always mentioned who just seem to play. If we can turn a Smith/Snelling/Ham into a Rozzee/Rankine fwd with spunk I’d be happy with that.

Our go to player is the “what are they” type, I mean look at our VFL midfield (AFL listed) from the weekend. Cahil (AFL small fwd), Lachlan Johnson (I see an AFL small def there), Tom Cutler (wingman at 190+cm). I just don’t get our selections. If we can finally focus on specialists and develop them in there natural junior positions that’d be also great and give us a better chance of sustained success.


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Mate, Rozee and Rankine aren't "role players". They're genuine guns. Boyd Woodcock or Nick Holman are the role players of that type for Port and Gold Coast.
 

citizen-erased

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The problem we can’t forget is injury. Draper is 10 senior games off an ACL and is now missing the best part of another season with his current injury. These are major injuries that will affect him. While you hope for the best, we have to be very wary of the fact that Draper could be highly injury prone. It’s already destroyed two seasons for him, and he plays like a wrecking ball. It doesn’t matter how big you are, at AFL level that takes its toll.
i think you want 3 ruckman on the list with a 4th who isn't a primary ruck, but has a role in the side so they can provide a chop out
At the moment i like what we have numbers wise

Draper as first ruckman with a, hopefully, long career ahead of him in that role
Phillips as the backup if Draper goes down
Bryan as the developing ruckman
Wright is the 4th but his primary role is forward

With some early signs there is every chance Bryan could do what English/Jackson have and play regular footy by season 2.
If he can be banging the door down for AFL selection by the end of the year, i'd promote him to the Phillips role and find another developing ruckman.

Worst case, if we end up with 3 decent young ruckman on the list, you have strong trade assets (maybe don't do a Jenkins and give them away for peanuts)

We could also find that Bryan challenges Wright for a spot if he can translate the natural ability into a forward presence.
 

owen87

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In game time sense (125-ish minutes of game time), 78% is a little under 100 minutes on the ground, 61% is a tad over 75 minutes. It's a huge difference in terms of TOG.

I don't think what he's done warrants more than 2 years.
He may not warrant it, but if he's getting 3 or 4 year offers elsewhere, we'd be prudent to put an extra year on our offer to keep him around.
 

ghostdog

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He had a TOG of 61%. Only SPS and Dow had a smaller TOG. I agree that he's promising and he showed a bit but a 2 year deal is absolutely right at this stage of his career. Added to that is that we're often conservatie in terms of deal length.
Out of curiosity, what was Draper's TOG in his first AFL match?

Also non-plussed about delisting Mozzie without seeing him return from injury. Sounds like he needs a bit more support around looking after himself in recovery, but this could be due to his lack of understanding of what it means to be professional. It's an education thing rather than a football thing IMO.
 

eth-dog

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He may not warrant it, but if he's getting 3 or 4 year offers elsewhere, we'd be prudent to put an extra year on our offer to keep him around.
You can always do 2 with an achievable trigger clause for a 3rd.
Out of curiosity, what was Draper's TOG in his first AFL match?

Also non-plussed about delisting Mozzie without seeing him return from injury. Sounds like he needs a bit more support around looking after himself in recovery, but this could be due to his lack of understanding of what it means to be professional. It's an education thing rather than a football thing IMO.
78%.

That's exactly it. That's why he only got a 1 year deal last year.
 

owen87

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You can always do 2 with an achievable trigger clause for a 3rd.
You 'can' but will he accept it if he's got a guaranteed 3 on the table elsewhere?

Sometimes good business means offering a bit more than you'd like, to get what you want.
 

citizen-erased

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You 'can' but will he accept it if he's got a guaranteed 3 on the table elsewhere?

Sometimes good business means offering a bit more than you'd like, to get what you want.
Additional year where you're unable to re-negotiate based on 2 years development unless the club is happy to talk a new deal a year earlier
plus you have to uproot your life to QLD for the sake of an additional year

And it's not like he's a fringe project player for us
2nd rd pick
>18 months into his career he's been called on to play an AFL game.

I'd back a 2 year offer with us vs. 3-4 elsewhere. Esp interstate.
 

owen87

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Additional year where you're unable to re-negotiate based on 2 years development unless the club is happy to talk a new deal a year earlier
plus you have to uproot your life to QLD for the sake of an additional year

And it's not like he's a fringe project player for us
2nd rd pick
>18 months into his career he's been called on to play an AFL game.

I'd back a 2 year offer with us vs. 3-4 elsewhere. Esp interstate.
I'd say there's no reason EFC can't retain him with a reasonable offer, just disagree with Ethan that we must only offer 2 based off what he's shown.

If the market says he's got 3 or 4 years on offer elsewhere, we'd be silly not to put an extra year on the table, especially if it's at a reasonable rate. Sometimes the market sets the rate, if it took $350k x 3 to retain him, for example, I wouldn't think that's too bad a deal.
 

citizen-erased

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I'd say there's no reason EFC can't retain him with a reasonable offer, just disagree with Ethan that we must only offer 2 based off what he's shown.

If the market says he's got 3 or 4 years on offer elsewhere, we'd be silly not to put an extra year on the table, especially if it's at a reasonable rate. Sometimes the market sets the rate, if it took $350k x 3 to retain him, for example, I wouldn't think that's too bad a deal.
Much of a muchness and if there is one thing our list mgmt team is good at, it's keeping players we want.

2 v 3-4 they'll work out.
Keeping Bryan would be high on their radar given age, pick investment & the fact he's played a decent 2/3 of an AFL game against mature ruck.
 

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