Strategy Talk about the makeup of our list (and overall list management)

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Duckworth

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Oct 8, 2006
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Whilst I do believe that Wright and Jones can get it done, I also believe that we need Bryan to develop as a forward so that we can play Wright as a permanent forward and Bryan as a forward/ruck. Unfortunately we haven't been able to see what he's like at VFL level yet. Baldwin is of course the other option.

We'll see if Waterman can work on his tank, but I don't think he'll be that player. He's too fumbly. It doesn't work at AFL level.
We have the makings of an elite midfield, but we're missing that one player even if the player isn't A-grade. Many people don't realise that our midfield age-wise is in its prime. If only Stringer could be a full-time mid. We wouldn't need to worry.

I know he's about to sign a contract extension and I know I'll get flamed for this, but if we could get Dunkley with our first + sweetener, then I'd do it. Sure he isn't an A-grade mid, but he does balance our midfield. It's a shame to see him waste away as a second-rotation mid at Bulldogs when he'd be second to Parish with us.
Unfortunately, I think the Dunkley ship has sailed. Although if you use him as an index point, for where he sits in our midfield vs where he sits with the Bulldogs (or Melbourne) gives an indication of where we need to focus our improvement. He is second rotation for the Bulldogs so 4+ above him, and perhaps in the top few for us. Maybe 1-2 above him at Essendon?
 

JayJ20

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Unfortunately, I think the Dunkley ship has sailed. Although if you use him as an index point, for where he sits in our midfield vs where he sits with the Bulldogs (or Melbourne) gives an indication of where we need to focus our improvement. He is second rotation for the Bulldogs so 4+ above him, and perhaps in the top few for us. Maybe 1-2 above him at Essendon?
Yeah I agree the ship has sailed. Probably Parish and Merrett above him.
I don't think he is necessary for us, but it would be nice to have another option.
 

Zach Package

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So what do we realistically need to compete with Melbourne?

If we're looking at what we have, the only way we get close to them is for Stringer to somehow gain the tank to play the Petracca/Dusty role, which is probably never going to happen.
They are they most organised, have the best shape without the ball, their mids and flankers work the hardest particularly in defence and right up the top in terms of talent which certainly helps. They don’t let up.

We’ve got a fair way to go in terms of getting it right on a consistent basis, not just for stretches, games and parts of games at a time.
 
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Harlequin Dream

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Dec 19, 2016
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The key of getting to a high level is not matching the yardstick piece by piece but having game changing weapons of our own.

Cox has the potential to be unstoppable as a mobile marking target. Having a player like that who can start on the wing is a unique opportunity for us.

We need more game changing elements like that.
 
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Towno78

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Nov 6, 2009
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We haven't won a final in 17 years. You don't go from 11-11 and falling into 8th spot, with 1 win against top 8 sides, to contenders in 2 years. The club have been making the remarks about how progress isn't always linear to the public so I'm very confident that they'd be on the same page as I am right now.
Well sure, except for facts:
Melbourne 2019 5W 17L
West Coast 2016 16W 6L
Richmond 2015 15W 7L
Western Bulldogs 2014 7W 15L

I'd have 2013 as our earliest, and Doggies and Dees will both be in contention still. It was a fair question.
 

eth-dog

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Well sure, except for facts:
Melbourne 2019 5W 17L
West Coast 2016 16W 6L
Richmond 2015 15W 7L
Western Bulldogs 2014 7W 15L

I'd have 2013 as our earliest, and Doggies and Dees will both be in contention still. It was a fair question.
West Coast and Richmond really illustrate your point well. 11 wins is a fair bit fewer than 15 or 16.

Melbourne finished top 4 in 2018 but everything that could have gone wrong in 2019 did go wrong.
Bulldogs were a once in a generation thing where everything went right for them in a gulf year.

I don't think 2023 is feasible. All the commentary from club seems to back that point up. We probably miss finals next year and then maybe get a chance the following year to make the semis or prelim.
 

Towno78

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West Coast and Richmond really illustrate your point well. 11 wins is a fair bit fewer than 15 or 16.

Melbourne finished top 4 in 2018 but everything that could have gone wrong in 2019 did go wrong.
Bulldogs were a once in a generation thing where everything went right for them in a gulf year.

I don't think 2023 is feasible. All the commentary from club seems to back that point up. We probably miss finals next year and then maybe get a chance the following year to make the semis or prelim.
Ah, I wasn't listing West Coast or Richmond to illustrate my point. I was listing the last 4 premiership sides.
And 2 out of 4 completely dispel your point.
 

Towno78

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Nah, they really don't. One was a top 4 side literally the year before. We were where last year?
It was a direct comment to your bolded statement. But even if you don't wish to include them, you are just going to disregard the Bulldogs because it doesn't fit your argument?

It completely dispels your point. Fact.
 

eth-dog

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It was a direct comment to your bolded statement. But even if you don't wish to include them, you are just going to disregard the Bulldogs because it doesn't fit your argument?

It completely dispels your point. Fact.
Whatever helps you sleep at night. You've "dispelled my point".
 

Old Campaigner

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I think the season shows we definitely need a deep midfield. I think it's also interesting that neither side yesterday had a really dominant KPF.

If we can get a couple of good quality mids this year and next (as well as the Davy twins) I think we'll be in pretty good shape moving forward.
 

eth-dog

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Just looking at our list profile in terms of SOO, we have:

2x WA
6x SA
1x Tas
1x NT
1x Ireland
18x Vic Metro (including Kelly)
11x Vic Country

- Shiel, despite living in Aspendale, was part of Dandenong's zone so therefore VC
- Counting Hind as VC due to being from the Central Highlands (Ballarat zone I think?), same with Durham from Seymour (Bendigo zone) despite being recruited from Essendon and Richmond VFL respectively
 

Lore

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Just looking at our list profile in terms of SOO, we have:

2x WA
6x SA
1x Tas
1x NT
1x Ireland
18x Vic Metro (including Kelly)
11x Vic Country

- Shiel, despite living in Aspendale, was part of Dandenong's zone so therefore VC
- Counting Hind as VC due to being from the Central Highlands (Ballarat zone I think?), same with Durham from Seymour (Bendigo zone) despite being recruited from Essendon and Richmond VFL respectively
Would be interesting to see retention rate by SoO
 

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eth-dog

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And delistings other than retirements (or pseudo retirements e.g. zaharakis)
Players we've lost via trade/FA since 2012:

Fantasia (SA)
Daniher (VM)
Saad (VM)
Colyer (WA)
Morgan (VM, technically speaking we just delisted him so he could get DFA)
Hibberd (VC, Frankston in Stingrays zone ala Shiel)
Melksham (VM)
Giles (SA)
Carlisle (VM)
Ryder (WA)
Crameri (VC? I think)
Gumbleton (WA)
Monfries (SA)

Players we've delisted in that time:

Reimers (WA)
Lonergan (Tas)
Davis (SA?)
Hunter (VC)
Jetta (WA)
Hardingham (WA)
Gregory (VM)
Rayner (VM)
Van Unen (VM)
Thurlow (Qld)
Aylett (NSW)
Dalgleish (VC)
Browne (VM)
Kavanagh (VM)
Steinberg (VM?)
O'Brien (VC)
Hams (VC)
Gwilt (VM)
Pears (WA)
Ashby (VM)
Edwards (NSW)
Wallis (VM)
Eades (WA)
Kommer (WA)
Dempsey (Qld)
Nyuon (VC)
Bird (NSW)
Howlett (WA)
Goddard (VM)
Green (VM)
Dea (VC?)
McNiece (VC)
Houlahan (SA)
Clarke (VM)
Long (NT)
Mynott (VM)
Jok (VC)
Brown (VM)
Townsend (NSW)
Crauford (SA)
Zaharakis (VM)
Mosquito (WA)
Cahill (VC)
Johnson (VM)

No real theme there I think
 

Lore

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Players we've lost via trade/FA since 2012:

Fantasia (SA)
Daniher (VM)
Saad (VM)
Colyer (WA)
Morgan (VM, technically speaking we just delisted him so he could get DFA)
Hibberd (VC, Frankston in Stingrays zone ala Shiel)
Melksham (VM)
Giles (SA)
Carlisle (VM)
Ryder (WA)
Crameri (VC? I think)
Gumbleton (WA)
Monfries (SA)

Players we've delisted in that time:

Reimers (WA)
Lonergan (Tas)
Davis (SA?)
Hunter (VC)
Jetta (WA)
Hardingham (WA)
Gregory (VM)
Rayner (VM)
Van Unen (VM)
Thurlow (Qld)
Aylett (NSW)
Dalgleish (VC)
Browne (VM)
Kavanagh (VM)
Steinberg (VM?)
O'Brien (VC)
Hams (VC)
Gwilt (VM)
Pears (WA)
Ashby (VM)
Edwards (NSW)
Wallis (VM)
Eades (WA)
Kommer (WA)
Dempsey (Qld)
Nyuon (VC)
Bird (NSW)
Howlett (WA)
Goddard (VM)
Green (VM)
Dea (VC?)
McNiece (VC)
Houlahan (SA)
Clarke (VM)
Long (NT)
Mynott (VM)
Jok (VC)
Brown (VM)
Townsend (NSW)
Crauford (SA)
Zaharakis (VM)
Mosquito (WA)
Cahill (VC)
Johnson (VM)

No real theme there I think
A theme would only really be apparent in raw data if it was really strong, but we’re not known for losing players from anywhere in particular so I wasn’t particularly expecting that.

I’m curious if VM/VC kids are more likely to leave compared to others (who already left someplace to get here), or conversely maybe our scouting isn’t as good in some parts of the country and we’re drafting kids that don’t make it long term due to factors we didn’t know about (but perhaps should have) when we drafted them.

Would need to split them by club/player initiated delistings/trades and as a percentage of the total from each origin.
 

owen87

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A theme would only really be apparent in raw data if it was really strong, but we’re not known for losing players from anywhere in particular so I wasn’t particularly expecting that.

I’m curious if VM/VC kids are more likely to leave compared to others (who already left someplace to get here), or conversely maybe our scouting isn’t as good in some parts of the country and we’re drafting kids that don’t make it long term due to factors we didn’t know about (but perhaps should have) when we drafted them.

Would need to split them by club/player initiated delistings/trades and as a percentage of the total from each origin.
At a guess, I'm not sure there's a strong correlation between SoO and "go-home" factor for Victorian based sides, many of the kids growing up elsewhere seem happy to play and remain in Victoria for their playing career (which makes sense, IMO) whereas it seems to occur more commonly the other way around.

Also keep in mind that there's generally only a limited number of players last year who are genuinely valuable enough to exercise their go-home urges, a lot more of them are fringe players looking for opportunity, plus the guys we shed due to the ASADA era.
 

Lore

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At a guess, I'm not sure there's a strong correlation between SoO and "go-home" factor for Victorian based sides, many of the kids growing up elsewhere seem happy to play and remain in Victoria for their playing career (which makes sense, IMO) whereas it seems to occur more commonly the other way around.

Also keep in mind that there's generally only a limited number of players last year who are genuinely valuable enough to exercise their go-home urges, a lot more of them are fringe players looking for opportunity, plus the guys we shed due to the ASADA era.
I was thinking of Lachlan Johnson, Ned Cahill, Irving Mosquito, Jordan Houlihan and the trail of other random kids that haven’t worked out. They all have their individual circumstances obviously but there might be something in the idea that we aren’t able or perhaps willing to do as much due diligence on kids that go later in the draft from further afield.
 

owen87

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I was thinking of Lachlan Johnson, Ned Cahill, Irving Mosquito, Jordan Houlihan and the trail of other random kids that haven’t worked out. They all have their individual circumstances obviously but there might be something in the idea that we aren’t able or perhaps willing to do as much due diligence on kids that go later in the draft from further afield.
I don't know what our interstate scouting network looks like, someone like ant55 or eDPS might know more detail about how it works with interstate kids.

I think we tend to get a bit 'cute' with our late picks sometimes.

2016 we took Dylan Clarke at #63 whilst Luke Ryan the local VFL guy goes at #66

2017 we took Houlihan at #49 (SA), Zerk-Thatcher at #66 (SA) and Guelfi at #76 (WA) without any really obvious local guys being missed at least.

2018 we missed on Hind because he went in a weird spot, our first selection (Mosquito at #38) was arguably too early, then our next was Gown at #60 which was too late (Hind went at #54). I wonder if we didn't have Saad and McKenna whether we'd have done Hind earlier, or were we getting cute instead of taking the player we knew hoping he'd last.

2019 we took Jones & Bryan first which both look to be solid selections with only really Rivers and Ricciardi of note after that (we also bid on Coleman who looks quite decent). Where we took Cahill and Johnson there weren't really any more obvious players that got drafted anyway. Johnson was a bit of a cheeky one because we knew we could go and add an extra player anyway in Hibberd (who was woefully misused at AFL level IMO).

I'd say over the last 5 years it's probably only Luke Ryan who we obviously should have known a lot more about than the guys we drafted, the rest all seem much of a muchness with the other guys who went around them. Jack Graham out of SA arguably one that would have suited our list well and was available at the selection we used on Mutch. So perhaps our SA talent scouting isn't good 'enough'? Houlihan was a bit of a flyer out of SA as well without a proven form-line from memory?
 

eth-dog

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I don't know what our interstate scouting network looks like, someone like ant55 or eDPS might know more detail about how it works with interstate kids.

I think we tend to get a bit 'cute' with our late picks sometimes.

2016 we took Dylan Clarke at #63 whilst Luke Ryan the local VFL guy goes at #66

2017 we took Houlihan at #49 (SA), Zerk-Thatcher at #66 (SA) and Guelfi at #76 (WA) without any really obvious local guys being missed at least.

2018 we missed on Hind because he went in a weird spot, our first selection (Mosquito at #38) was arguably too early, then our next was Gown at #60 which was too late (Hind went at #54). I wonder if we didn't have Saad and McKenna whether we'd have done Hind earlier, or were we getting cute instead of taking the player we knew hoping he'd last.

2019 we took Jones & Bryan first which both look to be solid selections with only really Rivers and Ricciardi of note after that (we also bid on Coleman who looks quite decent). Where we took Cahill and Johnson there weren't really any more obvious players that got drafted anyway. Johnson was a bit of a cheeky one because we knew we could go and add an extra player anyway in Hibberd (who was woefully misused at AFL level IMO).

I'd say over the last 5 years it's probably only Luke Ryan who we obviously should have known a lot more about than the guys we drafted, the rest all seem much of a muchness with the other guys who went around them. Jack Graham out of SA arguably one that would have suited our list well and was available at the selection we used on Mutch. So perhaps our SA talent scouting isn't good 'enough'? Houlihan was a bit of a flyer out of SA as well without a proven form-line from memory?
Dylan Clarke wasn't really being cute. He was a highly touted inside mid that slid.
 

Ants

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The opening of our window will probably coincide with the closing of theirs.
Not really. They've barely scratched the surface on what they'll get out of Jackson, Pickett, Rivers, Bully, Smith, and a few others yet.
I think people need to temper their expectations for next year. We won 11 games this year, only 1 against top 8 opponents. Next year we're likely to get more games against them due to the comparative finishing positions.

Our window is 2024 at the earliest, and realistically 2025 is when we start challenging. No matter how young you are, it's hard to stay up the top for 5 years. So yeah, our window probably opens as theirs closes.
I might go one year earlier, but generally agree. 2022 definitely ain't it. The team needs at least 2 preseasons and 40 odd games more experience into about a third of the best 22 (if not more).
We need another A grade midfielder, you add a Bont, Oliver or Petracca to the side and it's not far away. I was thinking that we were a KPF short, but looking at the GF, Wright and Dr Jones would get it done with some more pre-seasons. The defence is solid. The core of the Melbourne team is a few more years advanced than ours - but we are tracking in the right direction.

I have thought that Waterman might be the key to helping Stringer in the midfield - what I mean, is could he do what Stringer does? I'd at least like to look at his stoppage work.
Those guys all went top 5. If we need that, we need to do a Melbourne and have a horrid year and finish well down the ladder. Its one of the reasons I've got mixed feelings on us finishing middle of the road again. We really need Perkins and Cox to shine as mids.
I think the season shows we definitely need a deep midfield. I think it's also interesting that neither side yesterday had a really dominant KPF.

If we can get a couple of good quality mids this year and next (as well as the Davy twins) I think we'll be in pretty good shape moving forward.
It depends on how an individual sees Fritsch. Is he a KPF or not? But he kicked 2 of Melbourne's earlier goals and he kicked the first 2 of their 'run', so was incredibly important. Offsetting that was how bad McDonald was. Brown was valuable but didn't rip the side apart.
 

Lore

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I don't know what our interstate scouting network looks like, someone like ant55 or eDPS might know more detail about how it works with interstate kids.

I think we tend to get a bit 'cute' with our late picks sometimes.

2016 we took Dylan Clarke at #63 whilst Luke Ryan the local VFL guy goes at #66

2017 we took Houlihan at #49 (SA), Zerk-Thatcher at #66 (SA) and Guelfi at #76 (WA) without any really obvious local guys being missed at least.

2018 we missed on Hind because he went in a weird spot, our first selection (Mosquito at #38) was arguably too early, then our next was Gown at #60 which was too late (Hind went at #54). I wonder if we didn't have Saad and McKenna whether we'd have done Hind earlier, or were we getting cute instead of taking the player we knew hoping he'd last.

2019 we took Jones & Bryan first which both look to be solid selections with only really Rivers and Ricciardi of note after that (we also bid on Coleman who looks quite decent). Where we took Cahill and Johnson there weren't really any more obvious players that got drafted anyway. Johnson was a bit of a cheeky one because we knew we could go and add an extra player anyway in Hibberd (who was woefully misused at AFL level IMO).

I'd say over the last 5 years it's probably only Luke Ryan who we obviously should have known a lot more about than the guys we drafted, the rest all seem much of a muchness with the other guys who went around them. Jack Graham out of SA arguably one that would have suited our list well and was available at the selection we used on Mutch. So perhaps our SA talent scouting isn't good 'enough'? Houlihan was a bit of a flyer out of SA as well without a proven form-line from memory?
🤷‍♀️ I just wanted to see what the data tells us. I did acknowledge that there are individual circumstances but I’d like to know more rather than just speculate.
 

owen87

Brownlow Medallist
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🤷‍♀️ I just wanted to see what the data tells us. I did acknowledge that there are individual circumstances but I’d like to know more rather than just speculate.
Sorry went off on a bit of a long tangent there.

2020 / 2021 will be an interesting draft cohort to follow.

Will the results be better or worse than when they have a normal amount of exposed form, the VIC kids in particular have bugger all form to go on, so will we see a lower than usual hit rate for players selected from local leagues versus the interstate guys?
 

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