Strategy Talk about the makeup of our list (and overall list management)

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Phat Toni

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Unfortunately, I think the Dunkley ship has sailed. Although if you use him as an index point, for where he sits in our midfield vs where he sits with the Bulldogs (or Melbourne) gives an indication of where we need to focus our improvement. He is second rotation for the Bulldogs so 4+ above him, and perhaps in the top few for us. Maybe 1-2 above him at Essendon?
Totally agree, the Dunkley ship has sailed, with the Parish meteoric rise due to the Shiel injury and the final touches put on the Stringer "Dusty" role has put Dunkely too far down the pecking order to go and pay a bunch of draft picks and 800K a year for him. We already have Shiel on that sort of money as the 5th midfield option.

Go get Dunston as a depth inside mid, keep the draft picks and get some more kids, keep the money and front load some contracts(Rids!?!) so we have flexibility in the years to come.
 

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ghostdog

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I doubt the club sees it that way. I agree that 2022 is more of a consolidation year where we will likely finish 7-10th but if we don’t take a step into contention by 2023 or 24 I doubt we ever do with this group.

That being said if we can continue to hit at the draft and trade period with anywhere near the same strike rate as 2020 we’ll be in contention eventually.
Rutten has already said he doesn't necessarily expect to play finals next year and that people shouldn't expect to.
 

Ambrosia

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Rutten has already said he doesn't necessarily expect to play finals next year and that people shouldn't expect to.
Aren’t I agreeing with him in the above post with my 7th-10th prediction?

Next year is all about developing Jones, Perkins, Reid, Cox ect for our push up the ladder in 2023/4.
 

ghostdog

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Aren’t I agreeing with him in the above post with my 7th-10th prediction?

Next year is all about developing Jones, Perkins, Reid, Cox ect for our push up the ladder in 2023/4.
I was looking at the idea of being in contention in 2023 as being unreasonable. If Truck's saying he's not expecting we'll do as well in '22 as in '21, then thinking conservatively, I don't see how we're suddenly in contention in '23. It would seem more realistic to be in contention in '24 or '25.
 

fairbump_playon

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It is crazy to think he went one pick before our double pick of Parish and Francis.
Imagine if Melbourne had botched it and taken Francis and we had a midfield with Zerret, Oliver and Parish
Dodoro would never have taken two proper mids with those picks even if Parish and Oliver were both available

But yes - imagine
 

JT_the_Man

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Will the opening of our window potentially line up with a new side in Tassie? I wonder how that will affect us, as well as the other teams around us also vying for top 8?
Looking at what’s happened in the past expansion is definitely a good time to be at the top. You also definitely don’t want to be in a full rebuild when it happens. Honestly it’s probably a bad time to be middling as well, maybe even worse than full rebuild.
 

katana

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Looking at what’s happened in the past expansion is definitely a good time to be at the top. You also definitely don’t want to be in a full rebuild when it happens. Honestly it’s probably a bad time to be middling as well, maybe even worse than full rebuild.
the teams that were rebuilding 2011-2015 in the most compromised drafts are now at the top. i think the worst place to be with a hypothetical expansion side is mid-table trying to hit a few pick 10ish guns that are just not there. kinda exactly where we were a decade ago. top 5 picks are always a good chance of landing guns to build a team around.
 

JT_the_Man

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the teams that were rebuilding 2011-2015 in the most compromised drafts are now at the top. i think the worst place to be with a hypothetical expansion side is mid-table trying to hit a few pick 10ish guns that are just not there. kinda exactly where we were a decade ago. top 5 picks are always a good chance of landing guns to build a team around.
Yeah, my thought process kinda went there halfway through the post. It just leaves those teams stuck.
 

Lore

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Will the opening of our window potentially line up with a new side in Tassie? I wonder how that will affect us, as well as the other teams around us also vying for top 8?
If you listen to Alistair Clarkson (who wants to be involved in a Tasmanian license push) they'll spend 5 years growing the grassroots in Tassie first before they get a license. At the moment they're trying to nail down the possibility of even getting a license...

If the list build is anything like last time they'll start their list build and pinch all the good players out of the pool while we're in our window and that should mean anyone coming up to push us out will be hamstrung. If all the stars align, of course.

Accident of history part 2?
 

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2short2slow

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If you listen to Alistair Clarkson (who wants to be involved in a Tasmanian license push) they'll spend 5 years growing the grassroots in Tassie first before they get a license. At the moment they're trying to nail down the possibility of even getting a license...

If the list build is anything like last time they'll start their list build and pinch all the good players out of the pool while we're in our window and that should mean anyone coming up to push us out will be hamstrung. If all the stars align, of course.

Accident of history part 2?​
Whether a new side in Tassie lines up with our window or not it doesn’t matter if we don’t generate that opportunity. To do so will require improvement but the draft, delisted free agents and trades can only do so much. Therefore, improvement will require other areas of the club to contribute.

Noting the coach’s edict about improvement from within, it boggles the mind about how this may be achieved.

Last year identified a number of talented newly drafted players, improvements in players on the list for some years and some new recruits who performed acceptably. No doubt the expectations should be that each of these groups should improve their performance going forward. Whether this occurs or will be enough on its own to raise the level of performance of the team is unknown.

Here are some of my thoughts for your consideration/commentary as you see fit.

Thinking outside the square allows for consideration of the following:
  • Retention of H Jones on a wing to provide a full season of game time and growth.
    • Does H Jones have to move to CHF or FF this season.? Last year proved what a threat he was in the open part of the ground. Allowing another season on the wing may be good development and preparation for such a move and provide an opportunity for Francis and Baldwin in the forward line throughout the year.
  • Move Cox to HFF
    • Whilst Cox does appear to be one the most unique and special wingmen if he goes to HFF then we challenge other teams in ways that may be hard to counter, and it also frees up a wing position.
  • Repurpose Redman as Winger/midfield
    • With the arrival of Kelly is there now an opportunity to use Redman up the ground? 187cm 87kgs, is he a bigger midfielder? He may well be, but we will never know unless we ask the question. He’s aggressive, can mark the ball, likes a goal. Can he be a point of difference in the midfield, particularly stoppages?
  • Train up Waterman and Guelfi to add to midfield rotation/depth
    • These Two (2) maybe midfielders that also offer depth and aggression at the contest. Noted that Waterman is coming from a long way back, but a solid pre-season may unearth a gem. Guelfi seems to have the aggression, tank and speed and may also benefit from some extended time in the midfield.
  • Retain Francis at CHF with Baldwin as the up and coming forward
    • Seems to be a no brainer. Continue with Francis with the benefit of a full pre-season and intensive coaching. It may be that he needs the focus of a task to bring out his best. Baldwin seems to be the obvious one to challenge for a forward position and the pre-season and 2022 should be where he attempts to re-establish himself. While he does so, Francis offers a solid basis for season 2022.
  • Tweak game plan and contest work at stoppages
    • What is our game plan? I am not sure I know. What I do think is that our wet weather footy needs some help, our contested footy needs some help, and that we need a solid pre-season embedding the game plan and playing style. Consistency in the playing group (hopefully less long-term injuries) and cohesion in our playing groups helps. Additionally, a solid VFL team and complimentary playing style would also help.
  • Improve tackling
    • Not a lot needs to be said. We need to be better. A solid pre-season which in part focuses on tackling and particularly tackling technique would help immensely
  • Reduce errors and 50 metre penalties
    • If we have the ball, we control the game. Not giving away the ball through skill errors or lack of discipline should be a focus this pre-season. Why cannot we have no fifties against us in a game? This should be our aiming point. Not missing targets by hand and foot also needs to be a focus. Upskilling players needs to be where coaches seek that 1%-10% improvement.
  • Improve kick-ins
    • This seems to be another area where improvement could occur. I believe we need more surety and speed in controlling and moving the ball.
  • Get players bigger and stronger with compromising performance
    • There are players that no doubt, have already started intensive programs in this area. What I would like to see is a team focus on these attributes where they translate into group and team outcomes. How big and strong does our midfield group need to be? How do we use these attributes in execution of the game plan?
  • Work on speed (movement, thinking, execution)
    • I note that McGrath and Ridley are doing some work in this area for movement. There is however scope for improvement in team thinking and execution, particularly kick outs. We seem to slow in comparison to other teams. I do not know why. Perhaps a full preseason will help.
  • Grow cohesion between midfield group and rucks
    • This seems to be an obvious area where gains can be made. We have new players in this group and very few seem to have played together for an extended time. I believe that one of the major outcomes of the pre-season needs to be around building more cohesion, that understanding, no matter who is on the ground at the contest, how it is supposed to play out. Who does what, where people are, how they react in the game.
  • Goal kicking
    • Always room for improvement. Accuracy, how to get the football in the right hands, how to create opportunities and then to take advantage of them. Little things but they make kicking goal easier.
  • Reid and Bryan
    • 2022 shapes up as a development year. We need a VFL team that these Two (2) can grow naturally into roles for the team. There is no rush but 2002 is important for these players to become AFL ready.
  • Coaching
    • After last season I wonder how our coaches are going to improve. Where would they see their improvement contributing to a better team performance? What do they need to do to get the best out of the players and the team?


So how do we get improvement from within? What are your thoughts/ideas?​
 

Ambrosia

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Doubt we see Cox and Jones swap positions and not sure it makes sense with Cox being an endurance beast suited to the wing and Jones high leaping and fast recovery at ground level suited to being a forward.

Wish Redman was given some midfield time earlier in his career but that ship appears to have sailed for mine.
 

Keystone agony

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Doubt we see Cox and Jones swap positions and not sure it makes sense with Cox being an endurance beast suited to the wing and Jones high leaping and fast recovery at ground level suited to being a forward.

Wish Redman was given some midfield time earlier in his career but that ship appears to have sailed for mine.
Yeh with our list now we actually need Redman back now and probably will for the next 5-8 years
 

kelvin_sheedy

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Interesting times going forward.

Hooker - finished
Hurley - finished ( may get another year )
Ambrose - finished ( may go around again bar any more setbacks )
Zaka - finished
Gleeson - done
Cutler - done
Phillips - may get another year as backup until Bryan is ready
Cahill - done
Mosquito - looks he's done and dusted
Clarke - done, may be lucky there's no depth so maybe gets another year.
BZT - done, may get another year as depth but with Reid coming on then will be lucky.
Johnson - hasn't shown anything so may be lucky.
Smith - depth at best.

We could make up to 10 changes if we are bold and brave. If we could add 2 ready made players with a host of kids it's pretty feasible to make a big cull.
With Clarke now pretty much done it is panning out the way I wanted it. Some players have got the extra year as depth but you can only make so many changes.

Really gives me hope the club is finally on the right track.
 

Ants

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So how do we get improvement from within? What are your thoughts/ideas?​
My views would be (taking an ~2 year time horizon):
  • Wright & Jones averaged 1.7 goals a game from Round 7. If Wright consolidates at that level and Jones moves up to 2 goals a game with more non-goal possessions, that’s a strong tall core
  • One of our other unproven talls steps up as a third option
  • Caldwell stays fit
  • Draper stays fit and builds his relationship with
  • Further development from McGrath, who absolutely has it in him
  • Find a good second rotation role for Shiel
  • Cox gets bigger, stronger, and starts owning his wing
  • One of the young talls pushes Stewart out of the side.
  • Further development of Perkins, Durham, Waterman and Hird to give midfield and forward depth (or more). If one could push Smith out of the best 22 that would be good
  • Get fitter, stronger, more experienced individually and as a team, so that we can run out games better, make less mistakes, win more contests and make better decisions.
 
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Keystone agony

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We're a pretty bloody young side. From memory I heard 15th in the comp or 15th for games played. So to be able to make finals is a huge effort.

If we've got no improvement left in us within what we already have then we've got big issues. We're super inexperienced.

For me I think we had a pretty hard hit injury run in 2021. Shiel, Caldwell, Langford, Mcgrath, Draper (Some serious quality in the midfield)

As for player moves, McGrath is the major one for me to the inside and Zac involved primarily outside. I still have Hopes Francis can be pretty bloody good as a 3rd/4th tall interceptor down back

My concerns with going the other way would be: We had a very soft draw. Stringer probably can't have a better year. I'm not sure Z.Merrett or Parish can either. Maybe the uptick of a new coach
 
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Keystone agony

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My views would be (taking an ~2 year time horizon):
  • Wright & Jones averaged 1.7 goals a game from Round 7. If Wright consolidates at that level and Jones moves up to 2 goals a game with more non-goal possessions, that’s a strong tall core
  • One of our other unproven talls steps up as a third option
  • Caldwell stays fit
  • Draper stays fit and builds his relationship with
  • Further development from McGrath, who absolutely has it in him
  • Find a good second rotation role for Shiel
  • Cox gets bigger, stronger, and starts owning his wing
  • One of the young talls pushes Stewart out of the side.
  • Further development of Perkins, Durham, Waterman and Hird to give midfield and forward depth (or more). If one could push Smith out of the best 22 that would be good
  • Get fitter, stronger, more experienced individually and as a team, so that we can run out games better, make less mistakes, win more contests and make better decisions.





You still got D.Smith in our best 22 ?
 

Keystone agony

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Initially? Definitely.
You have Francis missing? Going smaller?

I can definitely see the coaches keeping him in there, I can also see him dropping his head and smoking once dropped so wouldn't be great around the group. I hope he's a bit more mature than that but he just seems so competitive which is a good thing.

He probably starts the year well IF he has a big preseason and the coaches showed how much role players like Snelling are valued and I believe Dev Smith was around a similar mark to him for pressure acts
 

Ants

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You have Francis missing? Going smaller?

I can definitely see the coaches keeping him in there, I can also see him dropping his head and smoking once dropped so wouldn't be great around the group. I hope he's a bit more mature than that but he just seems so competitive which is a good thing.

He probably starts the year well IF he has a big preseason and the coaches showed how much role players like Snelling are valued and I believe Dev Smith was around a similar mark to him for pressure acts
Tall: Wright, Jones, Francis
Small: Walla, Snelling, Smith

Seems the most likely starting forward line in 2022. The midfield + bench will then have 8 midfielders some of whom will also rotate through the forward line, including Stringer, Langford and Shiel.

Waterman, Perkins, Hird as depth plus the young talls.
 

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